APARC's China Program recently hosted Center Fellow Thomas Fingar for the webinar "Was America’s China Policy a Foolish Failure? The Logic and Achievements of Engagement." In this talk, Fingar examines the longtime U.S. strategy of engagement with China as well as the potential shift toward a strategy of decoupling. "Much recent commentary on U.S. relations with China claims that the policy of 'Engagement' was a foolish and failed attempt to transform the People’s Republic into an American style democracy that instead created an authoritarian rival," he says. "This narrative mocks the policies of eight U.S. administrations to justify calls for 'Decoupling' and 'Containment 2.0.'” Fingar argues that the policy of Engagement has been fruitful and that Decoupling is not only inadvisable but also unattainable. Watch:

While Wuhan, China was the first epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, every nation in Asia has been deeply affected by the spread of the virus. In a virtual seminar convened by the Freeman Spogli Institute, APARC experts discuss the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 and the various policy responses to the pandemic across Asian nations.

Senior Fellow Xueguang Zhou focuses on the phases of crisis response taken by the PRC in the early stages of the unfolding coronavirus outbreak. Center Fellow and Korea Program Deputy Director Yong Suk Lee discusses the policy responses of the South Korean government. Southeast Asia Program Director Don Emmerson offers a comparison of different governance strategies and actions implemented across Southeast Asian countries, while Karen Eggelston, APARC's deputy director and director of the Asia Health Policy Program, addresses the response of health systems in Japan and South Asia.

Watch the full discussion and Q&A below. You can also read the Stanford Daily's coverage of the event.

WATARU FUKUDA
Chief Representative of the Shizuoka Prefectural Government in Singapore
Global Affiliates Program Fellow, 2014-16

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TSUYOSHI KOSHIKAWA
Chief Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency Expert for the Ministry of Planning, Finance, and Industry in Myanmar
Global Affiliates Program Fellow, 2014-15

I currently live in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, though I am originally from Japan. Naypyitaw is currently not under shelter-in-place, though the city of Yangon is. In Naypyitaw, restaurants are serving only take-out meals, and most amusement facilities like movie theaters, karaoke boxes, bars, and beauty salons have been closed. There are still a few big department stores open, as well as the public golf course and tennis courts.

At the time of this writing, the number of known COVID-19 cases in Myanmar is nearly 150, and I am worried about the potential risks because the healthcare and medical information systems here are not as organized as in countries like Japan, the UK, or the United States.

Anyone with a fever of 37.5 degrees C (99.5 F) or higher is being kept from entering Yangon. The Ministry of Health is taking all traveler’s temperatures at the airport, railways stations, and the exits of all highway interchanges throughout Yangon. Foreigners with a fever of 38 degrees C (100.4 F) have been told that they will not be permitted into private hospitals anywhere in Myanmar at present. Isolation wards in general hospitals will accommodate foreigners. The situation is frightening, but with frequent handwashing and hygiene, we are trying to take care of each other.

XIAOYUAN SHI
Deputy General Manager in the Internal Audit Bureau at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
Global Affiliates Program Fellow, 2012-13

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Thankfully, our efforts have worked. The new confirmed cases are mostly coming in from foreign travel. Big cities like Beijing and Shanghai have low infection rates, and people feel much less stressed. Social life, work, and production are recovering, and the lockdown of Wuhan City has been lifted. Most schools will continue to use online classes for the time being and restaurants are still not fully open, but I think the most difficult time is behind us.

It’s impossible to spot all of the potential virus carriers, and therefore precautionary measures like avoiding going out unnecessarily, wearing masks in public, and handwashing are still recommended. I’ve not heard of COVID-19 cases or deaths among my acquaintances, thankfully, but the conditions here have proven that this virus is highly infectious and death is possible. I hope our practices here can provide some references for other places where it is spreading.

In 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) published the fourth installment in its effort to identify “megatrends” likely to shape world events a decade or more into the future. Shorenstein APARC Fellow and China expert Thomas Fingar, the then chairman of the NIC, oversaw that report, Global Trends 2025. The unclassified report uses scenarios to illustrate some of the ways in which the factors driving world events – from climate change to demographic decline to changing geopolitical powers – may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. One of these scenarios is the emergence of a global pandemic that bears a chilling resemblance to COVID-19.

We sat down with Fingar for an online conversation about the NIC report and its pandemic scenario, the government action it spurred, the United States’ failed initial response to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the implications of the current crisis for U.S.-China relations. Watch:

Twelve years after its publication, the NIC’s "Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic" scenario (p. 75) has proven to be woefully accurate:

“The emergence of a novel, highly transmissible, and virulent human respiratory illness for which there are no adequate countermeasures could initiate a global pandemic. If a pandemic disease emerges by 2025, […] it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia […] Slow public health response would delay the realization that a highly transmissible pathogen had emerged […] Despite limits imposed on international travel, travelers with mild symptoms or who were asymptomatic could carry the disease to other continents. Waves of new cases would occur every few months. The absence of an effective vaccine and near-universal lack of immunity would render populations vulnerable to infection.”

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It was not a prediction, recalls Fingar, but rather an attempt to urge policymakers to think “beyond tomorrow,” past the end of their administration, and to stimulate strategic thinking about how to reinforce positive trends and change or ameliorate negative ones. If the report and its global pandemic scenario are precise, he notes, it is because the NIC’s effort involved the best specialists within the U.S. intelligence community and engaged numerous and varied groups of non-U.S. Government experts.

Yet the United States has been unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis is now worsening U.S.-China tensions. To address the crisis, however, argues Fingar, both countries must cooperate in the international fora. “Let that be the way that builds towards a better bilateral relationship.”

What is COVID-19? 
COVID-19 comes from the same family as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a respiratory illness first identified in southern China in 2003 that killed more than 700 people; and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Scientists still aren’t sure how humans first became infected with COVID-19, but suspect that the virus arose from bats, Relman said.

“That’s the best guess, simply because all of the most closely related viruses we know of in the world are ‘bat viruses,’” said Relman, who is a senior fellow at FSI and an expert on emerging infectious diseases.

Where Did the Virus Come From?
While many of the first cases of COVID-19 have been linked to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, recent data suggests that about half of the earliest cases appear to have no obvious connection to the market.

“Could they have been indirectly connected somehow, or could they too have been exposed through the movement of animals that ended up in the market? These are things that are unknown,” Relman said. 

Meanwhile, there has been speculation that the virus did not originate at the market and was instead created in a laboratory. Relman acknowledged that while he thinks it’s possible that scientists in China could have been studying the virus and let it out by mistake, he doesn’t think that’s what happened in this case.

Why Has COVID-19 Spread So Quickly?
The rapid transmission of the virus likely has to do with how it interacts with the human host. Most likely, it is growing to large numbers in the upper parts of the respiratory tract, and is therefore primed to be transmitted more easily, Relman noted.

“One of the biggest questions is whether people are contagious before they have symptoms,” Relman said. “And that is perhaps the most critical question as to whether this is going to be contained in the very near term or not.” 

What’s Been the Effect on China?
China was much better prepared for this epidemic than it was 17 years ago for SARS, said Eggleston, who is also a senior fellow at FSI and director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program. Still, China’s economy and connectivity within the global economy mean that this time around, it’s even more of a crisis, Eggleston said.

Many of the people who have died from the virus were healthcare workers who weren’t properly protected, due to a combination of strained resources and a shortage of testing kits and protective gear, she added. 

How Damaging is COVID-19 Going to Be?
If COVID-19 can be transmitted before people are exhibiting symptoms, it’s much more likely that the virus will spread broadly within China and be passed on to more people in other countries, said Eggleston.

Relman predicted that the number of new cases of the virus will decline over the next few months into the summer, but that it will continue to pop up in certain parts — or “hotspots” — around the world.

“We’re probably looking at a future that now includes the persistence of this virus periodically, especially in winters for the next several years,” he warned.