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This opinion piece was first published by Project Syndicate >



STANFORD/LOS ANGELES – It is tempting to frame the Sino-American economic rivalry as a clash between engineering doers and lawyerly naysayers, as the Chinese-Canadian analyst Dan Wang does in his new book Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future. But this is a false dichotomy, because law is a crucial feature of US capitalism.

We have heard the lawyers-versus-engineers argument before. Forty years ago, Japan’s economic rise induced similar anxieties, most famously articulated in the American sociologist Ezra Vogel’s book Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. Commentators fretted that America was mired in lawsuits while Japan’s best minds were solving problems and driving their country’s meteoric growth. Yet over the ensuing decades, the United States, with its mammoth legal industry, outperformed Japan by a wide margin.

Today’s panic about an Asian economic challenger is equally unwarranted and counterproductive. Invoking national security and the competition with China, Donald Trump’s administration is pursuing increasingly anti-capitalist and legally dubious interventions into private industry, with potentially high costs for American dynamism.

Continue reading at Project Syndicate >

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Colonade at Stanford Main Quad with text: call for applications for APARC's 2026-28 fellowships.
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Applications Open for 2026-2028 Fellowships at Stanford's Asia-Pacific Research Center

The center offers multiple fellowships in Asian studies to begin in fall quarter 2026. These include a postdoctoral fellowship on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships focused on Asia health policy and contemporary Japan, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting fellow positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and a visiting fellow position on contemporary Taiwan.
Applications Open for 2026-2028 Fellowships at Stanford's Asia-Pacific Research Center
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U.S. President Donald Trump (L) listens as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks in the Cross Hall of the White House during an event on "Investing in America" on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC.
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) listens as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks in the Cross Hall of the White House during an event on "Investing in America" on April 30, 2025, in Washington, DC.
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Invoking national security and the economic rivalry with China, the Trump administration is pursuing legally dubious interventions and control of private industry, with potentially high costs for US dynamism. Like the panic over Japan's rise in the 1980s, the administration's response is unwarranted and counterproductive.

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Cover of the journal International Migration Review, vol. 59 no. 3.

Countries that face brain drain have adopted various approaches to address its adverse impacts on development. However, the extant literature grounded in the return migration paradigm stresses regaining “lost” human capital through the repatriation of skilled migrants (brain circulation), neglecting the contributions skilled diasporic talent can make through transnational social capital (brain linkage) without permanent return. Building on recent theoretical advancements that reconsider return-centric accounts of migration and talent policies, the authors propose a framework that treats circulation and linkage as distinctive yet intertwined phenomena, accounting for both the human and social capital offered by skilled diaspora members. The utility of the revised framework is illustrated through a comparative analysis of India and China, two countries that have experienced the largest magnitudes of skilled emigration worldwide but adopted divergent strategies to mitigate brain drain, reflecting different resources, needs, and capacities. China has focused on circulating back its overseas talent, while India has cultivated transnational linkages that do not center on the permanent repatriation of its overseas talent. Additionally, circulation has facilitated linkage in China, whereas linkage has fostered circulation in India. The authors conclude by discussing the framework's theoretical contributions to the skilled migration literature and policy implications for countries of different sizes, levels of development, and geographic regions.

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Gi-Wook Shin
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We are pleased to share the publication of a new volume, Cold War Refugees: Connected Histories of Displacement and Migration across Postcolonial Asia, edited by the Korea Program's Yumi Moon, associate professor in Stanford's Department of History.

The book, now available from Stanford University Press, revisits Cold War history by examining the identities, cultures, and agendas of the many refugees forced to flee their homes across East, Southeast, and South Asia due to the great power conflict between the US and the USSR. Moon's book draws on multilingual archival sources and presents these displaced peoples as historical actors in their own right, not mere subjects of government actions. Exploring the local, regional, and global contexts of displacement through five cases —Taiwan, Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — this volume sheds new light on understudied aspects of Cold War history.

This book is an important new contribution to our understanding of population flows on the Korean Peninsula across decades.
Paul Chang
Deputy Director, Korea Program

The book's chapters — written by Phi-Vân Nguyen, Dominic Meng-Hsuan Yang, Yumi Moon, Ijlal Muzaffar, Robert D. Crews, Sabauon Nasseri, and Aishwary Kumar — explore Vietnam's 1954 partition, refugees displaced from Zhejiang to Taiwan, North Korean refugees in South Korea from 1945–50, the Cold War legacy in Karachi, and Afghan refugees.

Purchase Cold War Refugees at www.sup.org and receive 20% off with the code MOON20.

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Can the United States and Asia Commemorate the End of the Pacific War Together?

Within Asia, World War II memories and commemorations are not only different from those in the United States but also divided and contested, still shaping and affected by politics and nationalism. Only when U.S. and Asian leaders come together to mark the end of the Asia-Pacific war can they present a credible, collective vision for the peace and prosperity of this important region.
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Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin Illuminates How Strategic Human Resource Development Helped Build Asia-Pacific Economic Giants

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The new volume, edited by Stanford historian Yumi Moon, examines the experiences of Asian populations displaced by the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union.

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The world stands at a critical juncture. Today, about 2.3 billion people are living with moderate or severe food insecurity worldwide (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO 2024). By 2050, our planet will be home to nearly 10 billion people, requiring at least a 50% increase in food production from 2011 levels (FAO 2017). This challenge is not simply about producing more food. It is about doing so on degraded land, with less water, under extreme weather conditions in the face of climate change. 

The traditional, resource-intensive farming that sustained the global human population for decades is no longer a viable path forward. Reliance on labor inputs and intensive use of resources cannot meet these complex, interconnected challenges. We must transform our agricultural systems into climate-smart, high-tech agriculture—driven by data and Industry 4.0 technologies, such as AI, robotics, remote sensing, and big data. These tools hold the promise of a “quantum leap” in sustainable food productivity. Yet this transformation cannot happen without investing in agricultural education and training.

From the 1950s to the 1970s, institutions such as the Rockefeller and Ford foundations, USAID and its precursors, and multilateral development banks made significant global investments in agricultural research, education, and training. These investments laid the foundation for the Green Revolution, demonstrating that human capital and agricultural research and development (R&D) are as critical as physical inputs in driving productivity growth and food security. Since then, however, global public investment in agricultural education and R&D has declined or stagnated, except in a few countries, such as China (Ruane and Ramasamy 2023). For example, in the United States, public agricultural R&D spending—adjusted for inflation—fell by nearly one-third between its 2002 peak and 2019, returning to levels last seen in the 1970s. 

Chart of public spending on agriculture from 1970-2020. 2020 levels are as low as 1970 levels.
USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) using data from National Science Foundation; USDA's Research, Education, and Economics Information System (REEIS); USDA's Current Research Inventory System (CRIS); and various private sector data sources.

Why Investing in Agricultural Education Is a Global Necessity


There is now an urgent need for a renewed commitment to build agricultural human resources that can lead the next transformation. This is not just about teaching farming. It is about cultivating a new generation of innovators, scientists, policymakers, and agro-entrepreneurs who can lead the Green Revolution 2.0. Here are seven compelling reasons why investing in agricultural education is a global necessity.

1. The times call for a quantum leap in sustainable productivity

The first Green Revolution helped avert mass famine through high-yield varieties, but at great environmental cost (see, inter alia, Tilman 1999 and Yang 2024). Now, we need a  Green Revolution 2.0 to drive a "quantum leap" in food production. This next revolution must be “smart” and sustainable. Agricultural education is the engine of this revolution. It will educate scientists, policymakers, and high-tech farmers, enabling them to develop new climate-resilient crops and adopt sustainable practices. Furthermore, the digital technologies driving the Green Revolution 2.0 can improve market access and help ensure fair prices for smallholder farmers.

2. Innovation adoption must be accelerated

Innovation is meaningless if it does not reach those who need it most. However, farmers, especially smallholders (e.g., small-scale and family farmers) and those with limited education, are often risk-averse in adopting new practices. Worse, the traditional systems supporting technology adoption have become ineffective. Government extension services struggle to keep up with the latest technologies, while farmers increasingly rely on commercial vendors for advice. Recent studies suggest that newer approaches, like social networks and farmer-to-farmer learning, have proven far more effective. Investing in education helps create "agropreneurs" who can champion innovation within farming communities, thereby accelerating the adoption of new technologies.

3. The agriculture workforce needs upskilling

The nature of work in agriculture is rapidly changing—vertical farms, AI-driven analytics, automated systems, and climate-resilient practices are redefining food production. Farmers need new skills in data, systems management, digital operations, and climate-resilient methods. Without education, millions risk being left behind, especially in developing countries, resulting in worsening inequality. Investment in upskilling enables farmers to collaborate with technology, thereby avoiding a poverty trap.

4. Empowering smallholder and family farmers will create opportunities and aid their survival

Unlike past mechanization that favored large farms, today’s advances in precision and digital agriculture can empower smallholders. And it creates new opportunities for smallholder farmers to serve growing niche, diverse markets. With supportive policies and education, smallholders can become key drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation.

5. Agriculture needs new, young blood

Farmers are aging worldwide, while youth are leaving rural areas to seek careers in other fields. Traditional agricultural curricula and programs fail to spark their interest. By integrating robotics, AI, biotechnology, and data science into agricultural education, coupled with the use of app-based market-access solutions, we can redesign agricultural systems and make farming an attractive, future-oriented career. Investing in high-tech agricultural education is the key to filling the labor gap with skilled, motivated, next-generation farmers

6. Greenhouse gas reduction

Agriculture is the second-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and consumes 70% of global fresh water. Climate-smart farming practices can reduce emissions, store carbon, and build resilience against droughts, pests, and diseases. Education is the gateway to equipping farmers with the knowledge to implement such solutions at scale.

7. Agricultural investment boosts national prosperity and global collaboration

The benefits of investing in agricultural education extend far beyond farms. Past investments in the 1950s–70s powered the Green Revolution, saving over a billion people from starvation, reducing rural poverty, and fueling industrial development. A notable example of a successful investment is the US-funded Seoul National University (SNU) Minnesota Project (1954–1962). Under the project, the University of Minnesota helped rebuild SNU’s College of Agriculture and train a generation of agricultural scientists. These scientists not only transformed Korea from a food-deficit to a food-secure nation, but are today contributing to agricultural advancements globally. Replicating such initiatives worldwide could deliver similar results in today’s food-insecure countries.

Moving Forward


Momentum for significant investments in agriculture is building. The G20 has committed to food security, emphasizing investment in sustainable productivity. The World Bank has invested $45 billion in food and nutrition security programs since 2022, exceeding its target of $30 billion. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) pledged $40 billion (2022–2030), including $26 billion in new financing. It is encouraging that more than 50 countries have launched programs to nurture young and next-generation farmers, recognizing their vital role in food security, as well as in ensuring the future sustainability and competitiveness of the agricultural sector (although the outcomes of these programs remain mixed). Countries are also stepping up their investment in agricultural education and training. For example, Bangladesh is developing a $150 million project with ADB and the Korean Eximbank to upgrade its agricultural tertiary education, while Thailand is developing a $120 million investment project in agricultural technical and vocational education.

However, to avert a coming food crisis, these efforts need to be scaled, and to achieve that, concerted global action is necessary. One such initiative, now being proposed by ADB in partnership with a consortium of agricultural universities, is the establishment of a global climate-smart, high-tech agricultural education network to mobilize public and private investments, accelerate knowledge sharing and technology adoption, and prepare the next generation of agriculture leaders and entrepreneurs globally.

The challenges are immense, but so are the opportunities. Investing in agricultural education and training is not just about farming—it is about building a sustainable, food-secure, and climate-resilient future.
 


Works Cited


FAO. 2017. The Future of Food and Agriculture—Trends and Challenges.

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO. 2024. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024—Financing to End Hunger, Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in All Its Forms.

Ruane, John, and Selvaraju Ramasamy. 2023. Global Investments in Agricultural Research: Where Are We and Where Are We Going? Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Tilman, David. 1999. “Global Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Expansion: The Need for Sustainable and Efficient Practices.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 96 (11): 5995-6000.

Yang, Yi, David Tilman, Zhenong Jin et al. 2024. “Climate Change Exacerbates the Environmental Impacts of Agriculture.” Science 385 (6713).
 

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Why We Need to Invest in Agricultural Education Now

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As the U.S.-China competition unfolds in areas ranging from trade to technology to the military, the rival-making discourse surrounding this great power competition was the focus of the conference Beyond a New Cold War, organized and hosted by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL).

Held on August 14, 2025, the event showcased SNAPL research illuminating how U.S. political leaders and the media shape narratives concerning China and how citizens in young democracies perceive these narratives. Serving as discussants were experts from Columbia University, the University of California, Berkeley, the Hoover Institution (represented by a former National Security Affairs Fellow), and the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China.

The studies presented and discussed at the conference are part of SNAPL’s U.S.-Asia Relations research track, one of four research streams the lab pursues. Housed at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and founded by sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the lab aims to generate evidence-based policy recommendations and promote transnational collaboration with academic and policy institutions to advance the future prosperity of Asia and U.S.-Asia relations.

“This conference provided an excellent opportunity to engage the policy community with our research findings,” says Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and the director of APARC and the Korea Program. “The lab will continue to foster ongoing dialogue between academic and policy circles.” 

The conference builds on previous SNAPL forums and meetings with policy and academic communities in Washington, D.C., held in September 2024. These policy engagement activities are made possible thanks to a grant from FSI


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Xinru Ma

Dynamics of American Elite Discourse on China


At the first conference panel, Research Fellow Xinru Ma shared a study that unravels who leads elite discourse on U.S.-China relations – whether Congress, the White House, or the media. While prior research suggests that each of these actors could have distinct agenda-setting capacities, their relative influence and its directionality in foreign policy discourse remain empirically underexamined.

The study addresses this question by investigating China-focused discourse and framing by the U.S. legislative and executive branches as well as the media. Using computational and causal inference methods, the study analyzes social media data from the legislative and executive branches alongside major U.S. media outlets across two periods: the 116th Congress (January 3, 2019 – January 3, 2021) and the 118th Congress (January 3, 2023 – January 3, 2025).

The analysis reveals that, both in terms of issue attention and framing, the media tends to follow the lead of Congress and the President. The findings also indicate that Republican lawmakers exert greater influence on setting the China agenda in the media. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers are stronger predictors of how the media frames the issues at stake. Moreover, the findings suggest that presidential influence on China discourse weakened sharply in the 118th Congress, and that there is an overall shift toward party-driven, rather than institutionally mediated, communication among elites. 


Policy Implications
 

  • Media Weakness: The reliance of media outlets on partisan cues from political elites on foreign policy issues increases the risk of incomplete or skewed public understanding of China and U.S.-China relations. The risk is especially disconcerting as U.S. reporters face limited access to China.
  • Partisan Echo Chambers: Communication flows primarily within partisan networks rather than across institutions, with the separation of powers becoming less effective as a system of checks and balances. The splintering of political discourse into parallel echo chambers risks eroding opportunities for cross-party dialogue and democratic deliberation on complex foreign policy issues.
  • Fragmented Messaging: Divergent partisan messaging on China signals inconsistency to both domestic and international audiences who might draw contradictory conclusions about U.S. intentions. This dynamic gives rise to strategic miscalculations abroad and a fragmented public understanding of China policy at home.
  • Declining  Institutional Voices: The decline of institutional power over shaping U.S. discourse on China has created a growing vulnerability. As individual political figures gain sway, personalized narratives often prioritize short-term visibility over a coherent, long-term strategy.
Gidong Kim delivers a presentation in a conference room.
Gidong Kim

Democracy vs. Autocracy: A View from Young Democracies


Despite their deep divisions on most issues, there is one topic Republicans and Democrats converge on: China. Both parties increasingly frame the intensifying U.S.-China tensions as a strategic competition between democracy and autocracy. But is the value diplomacy this approach begets effective in promoting liberal values in young democracies?

At the second conference panel, Visiting Scholar Gidong Kim presented a study that addresses this question. “This study challenges the effectiveness of the value-laden U.S. diplomacy in young democracies and presents a more nuanced explanation of democracy's role in forming public opinion on foreign policy,” says Kim, formerly a postdoctoral fellow with SNAPL and currently an assistant professor of political science at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS).

The study hypothesizes that in young democracies, where democratic histories are relatively short and legacies of authoritarian rule endure, citizens tend to understand democracy in terms of electoral institutions rather than liberal values. Similarly, in the context of the U.S.-China competition, citizens in these countries tend to perceive China’s threats to electoral institutions more seriously than its threats to liberal values.

To test this proposition, the study uses a country-level, cross-national analysis and an original survey experiment in South Korea. The findings support the hypothesis.

Policy Implications
 

  • Context Matters: U.S. policymakers must acknowledge the limits of value-driven diplomacy. Washington should diversify its foreign policy toolkit and adapt it to regional contexts: in Western Europe, liberal values rhetoric can reinforce alliances, but in young democracies, the design and strength of electoral institutions carry greater weight.
  • A Crisis of Credibility: For China, there is an equally clear lesson about the need to rethink its approach to diplomacy. Without addressing suspicions of election interference in democratic countries, Beijing will struggle to gain traction with the publics in young Asian democracies and dissipate anti-China sentiments in those countries, even if it increases its soft power through liberalization policies.


SNAPL’s studies presented at the conference underscore the crucial role that narratives and public perceptions play in international relations. They suggest that great power competition is not just about power. Rather, it is also about persuasion, which, in turn, depends on how different audiences — at home and abroad — perceive the story.

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Korean activists released from prison on August 16, 1945.
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Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab members and invited discussants at the conference "Beyond a New Cold War: Political Messaging and Public Perceptions on China" – August 14, 2025.
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At a recent conference, lab members presented data-driven, policy-relevant insights into rival-making in U.S.-China relations.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-2026
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Yuli Xu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2025-2026 academic year. She recently obtained her Ph.D. in Economics at the University of California, San Diego. Her research focuses on Labor and Health Economics, with particular interests in how female labor force participation and fertility decisions are influenced by labor market institutions and past birth experiences.

In her thesis, "Gendered Impacts of Privatization: A Life Cycle Perspective from China," she demonstrates that the reduction in public sector employment has widened the gender gap in the labor market while narrowing the gender gap in educational attainment. She also finds that this structural shift has delayed marriage among younger generations.

In another line of research, Yuli examines the effects of maternity ward overcrowding. She finds that overcrowding reduces the use of medical procedures during childbirth without negatively impacting maternal or infant health. While it has no direct effect on subsequent fertility, she shows that mothers, especially those with a college degree, are more likely to switch to another hospital for subsequent births after experiencing overcrowding.

During her time at APARC, Yuli will further investigate patient-physician relationships in the Chinese healthcare system, where patients have considerable flexibility in choosing their doctors at each visit. She will explore the persistence of these relationships and examine how patients respond when their regular doctors are temporarily unavailable.

Yuli also holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of International Business and Economics in China.

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This conference is hosted by Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) with support from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

The conference, “Beyond a New Cold War: Political Messaging and Public Perceptions on China”, aims to present and discuss new research findings on how U.S. political leaders and the media shape narratives around China, and how those narratives are perceived by citizens in the Asia-Pacific region.

11:40am - 12:25pm Lunch

12:25pm - 12:30pm Welcome Remarks

Gi-Wook Shin,  Director of Shorenstein APARC; Director of SNAPL; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

12:30pm - 1:50pm Panel 1

Who’s Leading Whom? Measuring Issue Attention and Rivalry Framing of China by Legislators, Presidents, and the Media

This panel examines how issue attention and framing related to China have evolved across Congress, the executive branch, and major U.S. media outlets, using social media posts from 2009 to 2024. By analyzing the direction and dynamics of influence among these actors, the research offers new insights into how U.S. foreign policy narratives on China are shaped and circulated.

Presenter: Xinru Ma, Research Scholar at SNAPL, APARC, Stanford University

Discussant: Thomas Christensen, James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations; Director of the China and the World Program, Columbia University

1:50pm - 2:00pm Break

2:00pm - 3:20pm Panel 2

Democracy versus Autocracy in Foreign Policy: Public Attitudes toward China in Young Democracies

This panel discusses the role of democracy in forming public opinion on China. By focusing on citizens in young democratic countries, the study examines how public understanding of democracy in such countries shape their perception of China’s threat to democracy and thus exhibit anti-China sentiments. Using survey data analyses and an original survey experiment, the study demonstrates that China’s threats to electoral institutions—rather than liberal values—more strongly generate unfavorable attitudes toward China.

Presenter: Gidong Kim, Visiting Scholar and SNAPL Fellow at APARC; Assistant Professor of Political Science, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Discussant: Susan Hyde, Robson Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

3:20pm - 3:30pm Break

3:30pm - 5:00pm Roundtable (closed door discussion)

Where Do We Go From Here? Policy Implications and Future Research

This closed-door roundtable brings together policymakers, scholars, and practitioners to discuss the policy implications of the day’s research findings. Participants will explore how insights on elite discourse and public perceptions can inform future U.S. foreign policy toward China and identify priorities for further research.

Moderator: Paul Chang, Deputy Director of Korea Program; Senior Fellow at APARC;  Professor by courtesy, East Asian Languages and Cultures, Stanford University

Discussants:
Piero Tozzi, Deputy Staff Director of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China
David Arulanantham, former Robert and Marion Oster National Security Affairs Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University

5:00pm - 5:05pm Closing Remarks

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC; Director of SNAPL; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

David Arulanantham

David Arulanantham, a Stanford alumnus, was a Robert and Marion Oster National Security Affairs Fellow at the Hoover Institution from 2023-2024.  A career Foreign Service Officer with the U.S. Department of State since 2005, David has more than two decades of experience living in and working on the countries of the Indo-Pacific region.  During his time at the Department of State, he has also served on the Secretary's Policy Planning Staff. David has a Masters in International Relations from Oxford University, and a Bachelor's in International Relations and Political Science from Stanford University where he published articles on Indian foreign policy.  David is involved in several public service and mentoring initiatives and can speak French, Hindi, Tamil and Bengali. 

Paul Chang headshot

Paul Y. Chang is the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Association Senior Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; Senior Fellow at FSI; and Professor by courtesy in the Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures at Stanford University. Chang also serves as the Deputy Director of the Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC and the President of the Association of Korean Sociologists in America. He is the author of Protest Dialectics: State Repression and South Korea’s Democracy Movement, 1970-1979 (Stanford University Press) and co-editor of South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (Routledge). His current work examines the diversification of family structures in South Korea. Before joining Stanford, Chang served on the faculty at Harvard University, Yonsei University, and the Singapore Management University.

Thomas Christensen

Thomas J. Christensen is James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations and Director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the Pritzker Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.  He was previously William P. Boswell Professor of World Politics at Princeton University.  From 2006-2008 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs with responsibility for relations with China, Taiwan, and Mongolia. His research and teaching focus on China’s foreign relations, the international relations of East Asia, and international security.  He has also taught at Cornell University and MIT. He received his B.A. from Haverford College, M.A. from the University of Pennsylvania, and Ph.D. from Columbia University. He was presented with a Distinguished Public Service Award by the United States Department of State.

Susan Hyde headshot

Susan D. Hyde, an expert on democracy promotion and international political institutions, is the Robson Professor of Political Science at University of California, Berkeley, where she served as Chair of the Department of Political Science (AY 2021-2024) and is currently Co-director of the Institute of International Studies (2021-present).   Her research focuses on threats to democracy, the role of regime type in international affairs, and international influences on the domestic politics of sovereign states. Hyde is a political scientist whose research examines threats to democracy, the role of regime type in international affairs, and international influences on the domestic politics of sovereign states, particularly in authoritarian regimes and transitional democracies. She has served on editorial boards of leading political science journals and has been a residential scholar at the Brookings Institution and Princeton's Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance.

portrait of Gidong Kim

Gidong Kim currently serves as Associate Professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies' Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, and he joins as Visiting Scholar, SNAPLFellow for the summer of 2025. Previously, he was Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow at APARC beginning August 2023 until February 2025. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from University of Missouri, as well as both a M.A. and a B.A. in Political Science from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. He studies comparative political behavior and economy in East Asia, with particular focus on nationalism and identity politics, inequality and redistribution, and migration in South Korea and East Asia. His work is published or forthcoming in journals including Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Asian Perspective, Korea Observer, and Social Science Quarterly. His dissertation, “Nationalism and Redistribution in New Democracies: Nationalist Legacies of Authoritarian Regimes,” investigates the micro-level underpinnings that sustain weak welfare system in developmental states.

Xinru Ma headshot

Xinru Ma's research focuses on nationalism, great power politics, and East Asian security with a methodological focus on formal and computational methods. More broadly, Xinru’s research encompasses three main objectives: Substantively, she aims to better theorize and enhance cross-country perspectives on critical phenomena such as nationalism and its impact on international security; Methodologically, she strives to improve measurement and causal inference based on careful methodologies, including formal modeling and computational methods like natural language processing; Empirically, she challenges prevailing assumptions that inflate the perceived risk of militarized conflicts in East Asia, by providing original data and analysis rooted in local knowledge and regional perceptions. Her work has been published in the Journal of East Asian Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Journal of Global Security Studies, and the Journal of European Public Policy, and in edited volumes through Palgrave. Her book, Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations, was recently published by Columbia University Press. At SNAPL, Xinru leads the research track in collaborative projects focused on U.S.–Asia relations

Gi-Wook Shin headshot

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology; senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; the director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2005; and the founding director of the Korea Program since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the new Taiwan Program at APARC. As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations. In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and published by Stanford University Press in June 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Piero Tozzi headshot

Piero A. Tozzi is currently the Deputy Staff Director of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, having served as Staff Director in the 118th Congress. His previous positions include Republican Staff Director of the bipartisan Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission and Staff Director and Counsel for the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations. He has also served as Senior Foreign Policy Advisor and Counsel to Representative Christopher H. Smith (R-NJ). Mr. Tozzi received his J.D. from Fordham University School of Law and his B.A. from Columbia University. Mr. Tozzi speaks Mandarin Chinese, and is the author of several works on international law and comparative constitutional law, including Constitutional Reform on Taiwan: Fulfilling a Chinese Notion of Democratic Sovereignty.

 

 

 

 

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When Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin left his home country of South Korea in 1983 to pursue graduate studies at the University of Washington, he was certain he would return to Korea upon graduation. More than 40 years later, Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, is still in the United States. 

Yet he does not consider himself a case of brain drain for Korea. Shin, who is also the founding director of the Korea Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and APARC director, has continuously contributed to Korea by leading transnational collaborations, researching and publishing on pressing issues in Korean affairs, and otherwise engaging in diverse intellectual exchanges with the country.

Shin’s experiences sparked his interest in the sociological patterns of mobile talent and a central question: How do countries attract, develop, and retain talent in a globalized world? His new book, The Four Talent Giants (Stanford University Press, 2025), explores that question regarding transnational talent flows from a comparative lens by examining how four strikingly different Asia-Pacific nations – Japan, Australia, China, and India – have become economic powerhouses.

We interviewed Shin about his book – watch:

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The book’s main idea, Shin explains, is that how countries manage talent is key to their strength and future success. He calls the four Asia-Pacific nations the book examines “talent giants” because each has used a distinct talent strategy that has proven critical to national development. Three of these nations – China, Japan, and India – are among the top five economies in the world in terms of GDP, and Australia, despite its relatively small population size, is third in terms of wealth per adult.

In The Four Talent Giants, Shin investigates how these four nations have become global powers and sustained momentum by responding to risks and challenges, such as demographic crises, brain drain, and geopolitical tensions, and what lessons their developmental paths hold for other countries.

There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ path to development [...] Rather, the ‘talent giants’ have developed distinctive talent portfolios with different emphases on human versus social capital, domestic versus foreign talents, and homegrown versus foreign-educated talents.
Gi-Wook Shin

A New Framework for Studying Human Resource Development 


Asia’s robust economic growth over the past forty years is nothing short of a remarkable feat. The Asia-Pacific today continues to be the world's fastest-growing region, despite global economic uncertainty. How did this phenomenal ascendance come about?

The existing literature has emphasized common “recipes” of success among Asia-Pacific powers. Endeavoring to find one-size-fits-all formulas that could be replicated in other countries seeking rapid development, it has overlooked the distinct developmental journeys of Asian nations. “We need a new lens, or framework, to explain their successes, while also accounting for cross-national variation in development and sustainability,” writes Shin. 

In his book, Shin examines talent – the skilled occupations essential to a nation’s economy – as a key driver of economic development. While all countries rely on human resources for development, their talent strategies vary based on historical, cultural, and institutional factors. Shin introduces a new framework, talent portfolio theory (TPT), inspired by financial portfolio theory, to analyze and compare these national approaches.

“TPT views a nation’s talent development, like financial investment, as constructing a ‘talent portfolio’ that mixes multiple forms of talent – domestic, foreign, and diasporic – adjusting its portfolio over time to meet new risks and challenges,” he explains. Just as an investor may select different financial products in a mix of assets, countries can create talent portfolios by picking from various strategies.

Shin identifies four main strategies by which a country can harness talent – what he calls the four B's: 

  • Brain train” signifies efforts to develop and expand a country’s domestic talent or human capital.
  • Brain gain” refers to attracting foreign talent to strengthen the domestic workforce.
  • Brain circulation” involves bringing back nationals who have gone abroad for work or study.
  • Brain linkage” means leveraging the global networks and expertise of citizens living overseas through transnational collaboration.


Shin uses TPT as an analytical framework to examine how each of the four talent giants has constructed its distinct national talent portfolio and how this portfolio has evolved. As in an investment portfolio rebalancing, a nation can maintain diversification across the four B's and within each B. TPT therefore offers a holistic framework for understanding the overall picture of a country’s talent strategy, and how and why it may “rebalance” its talent portfolio.

Throughout the book, Shin shows that, while Japan has relied on the brain train strategy, Australia, whose population was too small for such an approach, emphasized brain gain. China used brain circulation: it first sent students and professionals abroad to learn, then implemented policies to encourage them to return. India, by contrast, established linkages among its diaspora and used them to develop its economy.

Immigrants have not just filled jobs. They have created new industries and helped the United States and their home countries alike. If the US makes it harder for talent to come in and stay, it risks hurting its long-term success.
Gi-Wook Shin

New Geopolitics of Global Talent: Lessons and Policy Implications


The case studies of the four talent giants reveal that there is no single path to talent-driven development. Each of the four Asia-Pacific countries has built its unique talent portfolio, balancing human and social capital, homegrown and foreign-educated individuals, and domestic and diasporic talents. While the talent giants use all four B's to some extent, each emphasizes them differently, reflecting diverse strategies and development paths. The core findings of these studies offer valuable insights for countries aiming to design effective talent policies. 

The four B's were instrumental in the economic rise of the four Asian nations, and they will be equally critical in addressing new challenges facing all economies, from demographic crises to emergent geopolitical tensions. For the United States, one such challenge is its sprawling competition with China, where the battle for talent is heating up in the race for technological supremacy.

Shin warns that the advantage the United States has long held in technological innovation, driven by its ability to attract skilled foreign talent, is now at risk from the Trump administration’s anti-immigration policies, pressures on universities, and cuts to research funding. “Immigrants have not just filled jobs,” he emphasizes. “They have created new industries and helped the US and their home countries. If the US makes it harder for talent to come in and stay, it risks hurting its long-term success.”

The Four Talent Giants is an outcome of Shin’s longstanding project investigating Talent Flows and Development, now one of the research tracks he leads at the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which he launched in 2022. Housed at APARC, the lab is an interdisciplinary research initiative addressing Asia’s social, cultural, economic, and political challenges through comparative, policy-relevant studies. SNAPL’s education mission is to cultivate the next generation of researchers and policy leaders by offering mentorships and fellowship opportunities for students and emerging scholars.

Shin notes that the SNAPL team illustrates all four B’s in his talent portfolio theory, as some members are U.S.-born and trained, some come from Asia and, after working at the lab, return to their home countries, whereas some stay here, promoting linkages with their home countries. “In many ways, this project shows what is possible when we invest in talent and encourage international collaboration.”


In the Media


Stanford Scholar Reveals How Talent Development Strategies Shape National Futures
The Korean Daily, July 13, 2025 (interview)
- English version
- Korean version

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In his new book, The Four Talent Giants, Shin offers a new framework for understanding the rise of economic powerhouses by examining the distinct human capital development strategies used by Japan, Australia, China, and India.

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Over the past two decades, China has pursued an ambitious plan to establish an accessible and affordable health system that meets the needs of its population. As part of this journey, China’s leadership implemented comprehensive health system reforms and achieved near-universal health insurance coverage at a relatively low per capita income level. Key to this process was the integration of rural and urban resident health insurance programs, which has proven to yield positive outcomes in health care utilization, physical health, and related equity issues. Thus far, however, the integration’s potential psychological effects have been understudied.

New research, published in the journal Health & Social Care in the Community, addresses this gap in the literature. The researchers – Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, the director of APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP); Peking University’s Gordon Liu; and Renmin University of China’s Yue-Hui Yu and Qin Zhou, the latter a former visiting scholar with AHPP – find that the urban-rural health insurance integration has been beneficial for improving mental health among China’s rural adults.

Their study underscores the potential of policy-driven health system reforms to address longstanding disparities, promote mental well-being in vulnerable communities, and enhance quality of life among aging populations. This is the researchers’ final installment in a series of studies on China’s urban-rural health insurance integration.



Tracking Mental Health Over Eight Years


For decades, China had a fragmented health insurance system, which led to disparities between different populations and hindered the implementation of the Healthy China 2030 blueprint, a bold national strategy to make public health a precondition for all future economic and social development. Responding to this challenge, in 2016, China announced plans to unify its rural and urban health insurance programs. The unified health insurance system, called Urban and Rural Residents’ Basic Medical Insurance (URRBMI), offered equal health service packages and insurance benefits to rural and urban residents. Studies have shown that the integrated system improved healthcare access for nearly 800 million rural residents and helped reduce coverage gaps and inequality. Yet evidence about the integration’s potential psychological impacts has been limited.

Eggleston and her co-authors hypothesized that this reform might also benefit rural adults’ psychological well-being. To test this hypothesis, the researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a nationally representative survey that tracks health, economic, and social variables among Chinese adults aged 45 and older. The study focused specifically on rural residents, examining changes in mental health, particularly depressive symptoms, before and after the insurance integration. Data from four waves of CHARLS, spanning from 2011 to 2018, allowed the team to analyze trends over a substantial period.

The researchers used an event study combined with a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) approach, capturing the effect of the health insurance integration on depressive symptoms and comparing changes over time between those affected by the reform and a control group not yet impacted (since local governments introduced the integration reforms in different years, samples in the control group had constantly entered the treatment group during the survey period). This method helps isolate the effect of the policy from other confounding factors, providing a clearer picture of causality. The researchers further examined the heterogeneity of the integration effect across subgroups by gender, age, health status, and family economic status. They also analyzed possible mechanisms through which the reform produced psychological effects

Based on our analysis, the integration reform has improved the overall mental health of rural adults, as both their scores of depressive symptoms and the likelihood of becoming depressed decreased.
Eggleston et al.

Key Findings: A Significant Drop in Depression


The researchers find that the health insurance integration was associated with a measurable reduction in depressive symptoms among rural seniors. Specifically:

  • CES-D scores – a standard measure of depression severity (using a version of the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) – decreased by an average of 0.441 points among those covered by the reform.
  • The likelihood of experiencing depression dropped by approximately 3.5% in the post-reform period.
  • The decline in depression scores following the integration was continuous, suggesting cumulative effects of the reform. Notably, some psychological benefits appeared up to two years before the reform took effect, likely due to public awareness and positive expectations generated by advance announcements from local authorities.


The results were statistically significant, indicating that the health insurance integration reform has significantly improved the mental health of rural adults and reduced their risk of becoming depressed.

The findings also indicate that a key driver that produced continuous positive psychological effects was the integration’s reduction of health care costs for rural residents, particularly for hospital care. By lowering financial barriers to treatment, the integration improved access to healthcare and made its use more equitable. This, in turn, boosted rural adults’ satisfaction with their health and overall sense of well-being. The improvement may have set off a positive cycle, encouraging more social engagement and physical activity, which helped further ease symptoms of depression.

While the reform reduced depressive symptoms for both male and female older adults, the findings revealed differences across subgroups. It appears the reform did not significantly reduce depressive symptoms for those aged 40-49 and over 70, individuals in poor health, or those in the lowest economic bracket. The researchers attribute this to ongoing financial barriers and limited insurance financing, which may blunt the perceived benefits for high-need groups.

Policy design should pay more attention to rural adults aged over 70, those with chronic disease or disability, and those with low income and little wealth.
Eggleston et al.

Policy Implications: A Path Toward Health Equity


The study’s co-authors highlight several policy implications for China:

  • Expand and standardize coverage: Build on the success of the URRBMI by moving from local-level integration to broader provincial or national coverage, and encourage enrollment among vulnerable populations through subsidies.
  • Improve equity for high-need groups: Design more targeted insurance policies for older adults, those with chronic illnesses or disabilities, and low-income groups, especially by covering outpatient treatments for high-cost conditions.
  • Increase funding for the URRBMI: Despite progress, reimbursement rates remain low, highlighting the need for greater investment in the program.
  • Strengthen rural health infrastructure: Insurance reforms must be paired with improvements in rural healthcare facilities and services to ensure quality care is both accessible and effective.


China’s experience offers valuable lessons for countries aiming to achieve universal health coverage and those grappling with health disparities and aging populations. The positive association between insurance integration and mental health among rural adults in China underscores the importance of comprehensive, inclusive policies addressing financial and social determinants of health.

The study’s findings highlight the need to ensure that the most vulnerable populations benefit equally from health reforms. They also serve as a compelling reminder that thoughtfully designed and implemented reforms can improve physical health and increase mental resilience and social cohesion.

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New research by a team including Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston provides evidence about the positive impact of China’s urban-rural health insurance integration on mental well-being among rural seniors, offering insights for policymakers worldwide.

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Abstract

 

Introduction

Like many other countries, China had a fragmented health insurance system; in China's case, there were two separate schemes covering rural and urban residents. This study focused on the policy implications of integrating the schemes, particularly on the psychological effects.

 

Methods

The study used four waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) collected in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018, adopting a time-varying DID approach to capture the effect of integration on depressive symptoms among rural residents.

 

Results

The average CES-D score of rural adults decreased by 0.424, and the likelihood of depressive symptoms decreased by 3.5% after the implementation of the urban–rural health insurance integration policy. The positive effects may be due to the reduced cost-sharing rates as well as improvements in health satisfaction, social interactions, and physical activity. The integration reform had a limited impact on improving the mental health of those with the lowest economic status, the worst health status, and those aged 40–49 or over 70.

 

Discussion

This health insurance integration helped to improve mental health among rural adults. There are several policy implications:

  1. The positive policy effects suggest that further improvements could result from the Chinese government expanding coverage of the rural program, moving up to provincial- or national-level pooling, and encouraging more to enroll.
  2. More targeted solutions to decrease inequity should be considered, like focusing on rural adults over 70 with low income/low wealth
  3. Reimbursement rates under the rural insurance program remain low, so increased funding for the program is warranted.
  4. Strengthening healthcare facilities and resources in rural areas is an important next step

 

Highlights
 

  • CES-D scores for rural adults decreased by 0.424
  • Likelihood of depressive symptoms decreased by 3.5%
  • Benefits began appearing two years before integration, perhaps indicating positive expectations
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Evidence From a Quasiexperimental Study

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Karen Eggleston
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