This announcement was updated on October 6, 2023, to reflect the addition of two new fellowship offerings focused on contemporary Taiwan.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a suite of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin fall quarter 2024.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on Asia-focused health policy; contemporary Japan; contemporary Asia broadly defined; postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions as part of the new Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab; and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, the fellowship is awarded annually to one recent PhD undertaking original research on contemporary health or healthcare policy of high relevance to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.  
 

This commentary originally appeared in Shukan Toyokeizai.

Military tensions between China and Taiwan rise, and the U.S. government informs the Japanese government that it wants to deploy U.S. forces in Japan to defend Taiwan. At the same time, China sends a message through various channels that it will not touch Japan at all if it does not cooperate with the U.S. military and remains neutral.

In the event of a Taiwan contingency, It is highly likely that military conflict between China and Taiwan will lead to a decision by the U.S. military to intervene, followed by the deployment of fighter jets and naval vessels from U.S. military bases in Japan. In the process, Japan will be forced to make a major choice. 

If U.S. forces are deployed to the area around Taiwan, U.S. bases located in Japan, including Okinawa, will serve as bases. Under the so-called “Far East Clause” of Article 6 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, U.S. forces can use Japanese facilities and areas “to contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East.” However, the deployment of U.S. forces under the Far East Clause requires prior consultation with the Japanese side. Nevertheless, there is little chance that the Japanese government will turn the US down for fear of a confrontation with China. If Japan were to refuse at the last minute, the trust between Japan and the U.S. would be damaged, and the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty regime would effectively collapse. As a result, Japan would have no choice but to confront China alone. This would be a bad move that would only be a temporary fix. 

However, some officials from the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces are concerned about how the public would react. From China's point of view, this is a point to take advantage of, and by communicating that "Japan will be safe if it declares its neutrality," it may be able to divide Japan, the U.S., and Taiwan. 

The phrase "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" was introduced by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a symposium sponsored by a Taiwanese think tank in 2006. This comment was followed by the statement, "It is also a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance." How will Japanese public opinion react to the "ultimate choice" in the face of a Taiwan contingency? 

An interesting study, part of the Stanford Japan Barometer, conducted by Stanford University sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui and his colleagues examined this issue using a method called conjoint experiments. 

The subjects were presented with two scenarios: "In the event of an emergency in Taiwan, under what circumstances would you be more likely to support military involvement by the Self-Defense Forces?" The subjects were presented with two scenarios and asked to choose the one in which they would be more likely to support Japan's military involvement. 

In the event of a Taiwan contingency, the researchers presented three options in each of five categories: "Chinese actions," "U.S. actions," "Chinese actions toward Japan," "U.S. actions toward Japan," and "international community reaction. In an experiment in which each of more than 7,000 subjects was asked to answer which of two scenarios in which they were randomly combined would support Japan's military involvement in the event of an emergency in Taiwan. The series of scenarios reflect the opinions of security experts who participated in simulations of a Taiwan contingency conducted by various agencies in the United States. The results show whether support for Japan's military involvement strengthened or weakened when each scenario was presented.

One of these scenarios is precisely related to the aforementioned issue. When China promised Japan that it would not touch Japanese territory, including the Senkaku Islands, support for Japan's military involvement weakened. On the other hand, if China landed on and occupied the Senkaku Islands at the same time as its invasion of Taiwan, support for Japan's military involvement increased. The result is clear: "Japanese people place the highest priority on the impact on Japanese territory," said Professor Tsutsui. 

The survey results indicate that Japan is hesitant to fight China but would respond to a request from the U.S. military for logistical support. How will Japan be involved in a Taiwan contingency? Public opinion is not yet settled. 

In reality, many experts believe that if U.S. forces deployed from bases in Japan clash with Chinese forces, the next request will be for cover by the Self-Defense Forces. It is quite a narrow pass to say that they will not participate in combat and only provide logistical support. 

As for why Japan should get involved in a Taiwan contingency, the debate tends to settle on supply chain issues, particularly in the area of semiconductors, or geopolitical importance. Many Japanese, however, may feel that such reasons alone are not sufficient to make a decision to put the lives of Self-Defense Force personnel on the line and the residents of the Nansei Islands at risk. 
The supply chains that Japanese firms have built in East Asia, including China, would also be severely damaged. In addition, Chinese nationalism would flare up violently if it were to fight Japan again. The cost of fighting China as a neighbor is extremely high for Japan. 

Where Did You Get the Money To Pay for the Succession?
 

The issue of money is also unavoidable. In order to prepare for contingencies, we must also consider financing the cost of war. 

If the armed conflict with China is prolonged, huge fiscal outlays will be required not only for the continuation of the war but also for the repair of domestic infrastructure. In addition to supplementary budgets, it will be necessary to issue government bonds. 

However, Japanese financial institutions alone may not be able to digest the Japanese Government Bonds. For this reason, a simulation by the Japan Strategy Research Forum this year called for the direct underwriting of Japanese Government Bonds by the Bank of Japan. 

Junichi Kanda, a Bank of Japan alumnus in the House of Representatives who served as finance minister, opposed this proposal, saying, "It would cause a sudden loss of confidence in Japan's finances and the yen, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen to over 300 yen to the dollar and an increase in interest rates to over 10%. Such an extreme depreciation of the yen would also hinder the purchase of equipment and materials in foreign currency. 

Instead, Kanda suggested issuing foreign currency-denominated government bonds for foreigners. However, since there has been no such issuance since 1988, it is necessary to gradually issue these bonds from normal times to develop investors, he said. 

The prerequisite is that confidence in Japan's finances is secured. Japan needs to maintain fiscal discipline on a regular basis in case of emergency," said Kanda. Even in peacetime, there is a strong argument in Japan for using government bonds as a source of funds for increased defense spending. If the government cannot even raise taxes, China will question its seriousness. More open and substantive discussions are needed if the Japanese people are to be convinced to accept the costs of a Taiwan contingency.

Stanford University's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to unveil the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), an interdisciplinary initiative committed to producing evidence-based, actionable policy research to facilitate structural reform and propel Asia toward a future defined by growth, maturity, and innovation. Based at APARC and led by sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, SNAPL seeks to tackle pressing social, cultural, economic, and political challenges facing Asian countries, including aging populations, escalating inequality, brain drain, environmental threats, and institutional deficiencies in areas like the rule of law and cultural intolerance.

"SNAPL represents a significant milestone in our commitment to building research networks that engage academics, policymakers, business leaders, and civil society organizations interested in regional and global perspectives on contemporary Asia," said Shin, who is also the director of APARC and the Korea Program within APARC. “Through an interdisciplinary, solution-oriented, and comparative lens, we aim to set a research and policy agenda to help Asian nations create their unique roadmaps to becoming and remaining innovation-driven economics at the center of 21st-century dynamism and growth. At the same time, we believe that research on Asia could uncover important implications and lessons for the United States and European countries as they grapple with their own social, cultural, economic, and political challenges.”

Combining theoretical and field studies, SNAPL researchers will initially examine issues such as the prospects for reform of educational institutions, immigration policy, and cultural attitudes in Asia; paths to combating recent democratic declines; and U.S.-Asia relations. In addition to Shin, the lab director and principal investigator, the SNAPL inaugural research team includes Research Scholar Xinru Ma, Postdoctoral Fellows Gidong Kim and Junki Nakahara, Research Associates Haley Gordon and Irene Kyoung, and a cohort of Stanford undergraduate and graduate students serving as research assistants. The lab plans to continue offering fellowship and training opportunities to scholars and students.

“SNAPL’s education mission is to nurture the next generation of researchers, including students and visiting scholars, and we firmly believe that the laboratory model, proven successful in the sciences — with its mentorship and hands-on engagement — holds immense potential for nurturing talent in the social sciences,” notes Shin. “I look forward to our team’s contributions to U.S.-Asia dialogue and Asia’s security and prosperity, and I am grateful to our supporters for providing foundational funding for the lab.”

On August 29-30, 2023, SNAPL will co-host its inaugural event, the Sustainable Democracy Roundtable, jointly with the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies and APARC's Korea Program. The two-day event will convene scholars and students from the United States and South Korea to present solutions that address global democratic backsliding, promote social progress, and advance long-term development.

For more information about SNAPL, visit the lab’s website at aparc.stanford.edu/snapl.

The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is delighted to share that Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro has been named an Air Force Individual Reservist of the Year 2022 in recognition of her outstanding scholarship and defense analysis in the Field Grade Officer (FGO) category. Mastro, whose career combines academic research and military service, is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve, for which she works as a strategic planner at INDOPACOM.

Awarded by the Air Force Headquarters Readiness and Integration Organization (HQ RIO), the nomination recognizes Mastro’s exemplary performance and contributions to operational imperatives across the Department of Air Force by applying her globally recognized expertise as a China scholar and foreign defense analyst to bolster US national defense. Her analysis and advocacy impacted operational changes, updated national strategic policy relevant to the Indo-Pacific region, and increased strategic and combat readiness at the Wing, Major Command, Combatant Command, Service, and Department of Defense levels.

HQ RIO notes that “Mastro also led the national discussion on the U.S.-China relationship by publishing six peer-reviewed articles and book chapters; 14 commentaries in publications like The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal; recorded 40 radio spots and podcasts; conducted nearly 40 government, academic, and private sector speaking engagements and was quoted in more than 40 news pieces.”

Mastro has received numerous awards for her military service and contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, including the 2020 and 2018 Meritorious Service Medal, the 2017 Air Force recognition Ribbon, and the 2016 Individual Reservist of the Year Award.

Her current research projects focus on the U.S.-China great power competition, deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, China’s maritime ambitions, and the China-Russia military relationship. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University.

As Sustainable Development Goal 5 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), gender equality is an essential foundation for a prosperous and sustainable world and a core theme that drives the United Nations-adopted 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. The world, however, is not on track to achieve gender equality by 2030, as the latest Sustainable Development Goals Report indicates. To accelerate progress, we must “recognize that achieving gender equality is not a distant dream but a tangible goal that requires our collective efforts,” said APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin at the opening of the Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue (TASD).

Held from June 12-14, 2023 at the State Palace in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, the TASD gathered government officials, scholars, and practitioners from across the United States, Asia, and the Altai region to expedite action on gender equality and sustainable development. The event, organized by the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia along with APARC, the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future, and Ewha Womans University as co-hosts, is a sub-regional convening of the annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue, a joint effort of APARC and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation.

APARC initiated the Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue to create a platform for spurring meaningful discussions, research collaborations, and policy partnerships between experts from the United States and Asia to accelerate progress on realizing the SDGs. The TASD built upon the momentum and enthusiasm generated at the inaugural 2022 Dialogue and was held with an eye on the future, as APARC and its partners are preparing for the second annual Dialogue that will be held this coming September, again in Seoul, South Korea.

The TASD provided an opportunity for a new network of partners to explore the intersection of gender equality and economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection — the three core elements of the 2030 Agenda. TASD participants examined issues including policy solutions for promoting women's leadership; gender equality in the labor market and education; gender-based violence and human rights in Mongolia and the region; and Altai studies. Throughout the event, participants proposed actionable strategies to advance progress in gender equality and women empowerment. 

Shin lauded Mongolia’s progress in advancing SDG5, noting that its Parliament's “commitment to becoming a gender-sensitive and human rights-focused institution is genuinely inspiring.” He challenged participants to drive tangible action and address crucial questions, such as: “How can we effectively and holistically measure and evaluate women's and girls’ empowerment? Which interventions work at different levels and contexts? And how can we effectively implement the outcomes of this Dialogue?”

Chairman of the State Great Hural of Mongolia, Gombojav Zandanshatar, a driving force behind the TASD, emphasized the necessity of achieving women’s empowerment. “Men alone cannot solve the global challenges facing the world,” he said. “A new era is dawning where women's voices are becoming more important.” Chairman Zandanshatar, a long-time friend of APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies, is a former visiting scholar at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). While at CDDRL, Mr. Zandanshatar connected with the Deliberative Democracy Lab and ardently supported its Deliberative Polling® method. In 2017, Mongolia became the first country to legislate Deliberative Polling for constitutional amendments.

On the first day of the TASD plenary, keynote speakers and panelists discussed barriers to gender equality and policies to facilitate a more rapid shift toward empowering all women and girls. Speakers included, among others, Ban Ki-moon, the eighth secretary-general of the UN and the chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future, Kim Youngjoo, deputy speaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea, and Khurelbaatar Bulgantuya, member of the State Great Hural of Mongolia,  chair of the Sub-Committee on Sustainable Development, and minister for Labour and Social Protection.

In addition to Shin, the Stanford delegation to the TASD included APARC deputy director and Japan Program director Kiyoteru Tsutsui, associate professor of education Christine Min Wotipka, APARC associate director for program and policy Cheryll Alipio, APARC executive assistant Kristen Lee, and APARC incoming predoctoral fellow Marie Wako, a JSD candidate at Stanford Law School.

Wotipka and Ankhbayar Begz, coordinator for the Gender Equality Research Program at the Mitchell Foundation for Arts and Sciences and a former visiting scholar at APARC, presented their research on the gender equality index for universities, a tool to measure and evaluate the effectiveness of gender equality. They discussed why gender equality at universities is especially important, as youth gather and “obtain proper knowledge about gender equality before entering the job market and society, where they will spread the right ideology about gender equality.”

Highlighting the role of youth in driving action to achieve the SDGs, the TASD included young student leaders from Stanford University and Ewha Womans University, who shared their work on women’s agency, voice, and victimization in South Korea’s digital realm, Sri Lanka’s domestic and care labor regime, and Japan’s courtrooms. At the student panel, Marie Wako presented her findings on the effects of female judges in Japanese criminal cases. The impact of a judge’s gender, she said, is most notable in sentencing outcomes in which she found that sentencing for sexual offenses were heavier when female judges are part of the panel of three judges.

To further ties among the TASD participants and showcase sustainable development and tourism initiatives through the promotion and conservation of natural and cultural heritage, the second day of the official event included a visit to Gorkhi Terelj National Park for an introduction to nomadic culture and tradition with folk songs and dances as well as a mini Naadam festival, featuring Mongolian wrestling, horse racing, and archery.  “Let these experiences remind us of the interconnectedness of our planet, the importance of preserving our cultural diversity, and the urgency to act in the face of global challenges,” said Shin at the closing ceremony.

The complete TASD livestream is available via the Mongolian Parliament’s Facebook channel. Additional conference coverage: 

• Mongolian Parliament’s website: here and here
• Mongolian Parliament’s YouTube channel: here and here
• UNDP
• IPU

Stay tuned for news about the second annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue, to be held in Seoul, Republic of Korea on September 13-14, 2023, focusing on energy security — Sustainable Development Goal 7.