Stanford University

Empowering the World: Entrepreneurship and the Future of Foreign Policy

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Please note: the start time for this event has been moved from 3:00 to 3:15pm.

Join FSI Director Michael McFaul in conversation with Richard Stengel, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs. They will address the role of entrepreneurship in creating stable, prosperous societies around the world.

Richard Stengel Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Special Guest United States Department of State
Moderator
Panel Discussions

The Paradox of Sustainability

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An Indian woman stands on a hill of coal, wielding a sledgehammer above her head. Next to her is the text "Shorenstein APARC Working Paper," with the organization logo.

Highlights

  • The sustainability narrative has become central to 21st-century development policy, but it resonates primarily with the population of the developed economies. The same narrative appears elitist for the remaining 84 percent of the global population focused on meeting daily needs.
  • The paradox of sustainability arises from placing equally high expectations on both developed and developing economies to achieve sustainable development. While developed countries are responsible for the vast majority of historical carbon emissions, developing countries attempting to modernize and feed themselves are under pressure to curb emissions and pursue low-carbon development trajectories.
  • An examination of the degree of electrification in developing countries demonstrates the difficulty of attaining carbon neutrality by 2050. Many developing economies, like Indonesia and India, are electrified only to around 1,000 kWh per capita, far below a “modern” level of electrification at 6,000 kWh per capita. At current levels of capacity building, most Southeast Asian countries will require more than 26 years to reach this level of electrification, with Indonesia requiring 121 years.
  • There are challenges facing the energy equation both on the demand and supply sides. The long-term demand for fossil fuels is not likely to decline, whereas, on the supply side, there are technological and economic challenges. Southeast Asian countries will need more than $1.8 trillion to build out renewable power generation capabilities — a Herculean task given their lack of robust fiscal spaces, low monetary supply availabilities, and limited ability to attract foreign direct investment.
  • To advance carbon neutrality for all, developed economies must increase their investment in clean energy opportunities in developing economies, channeling for this purpose the $100 trillion of liquidity funds they have generated under long periods of prosperity.
  • Southeast Asian countries, on their part, should focus on investing more in education to improve their economic performance and better inform citizens about the unintended consequences of detrimental environmental practices. They should also prioritize advancing a more robust political culture conducive to a stronger alignment between talent and power, thus encouraging capacity and institutional building as well as better prospects for meaningful regional and global collaboration.


Summary

This paper analyzes the paradox of sustainability that stems from the high expectations placed upon developed and developing nations' environmental and economic progress. Focusing on the coal-powered electricity sector, which has underpinned most of the world’s electrification, the author examines the time it took for Western European countries and the United States of America to modernize and the time it will take for developing economies, like those in Southeast Asia and India, to modernize while pursuing a quest for sustainable development. The author also proposes potential solutions, including renewable energy and multilateralism, to mitigate the challenges of achieving modernization and sustainability through greater collaboration among countries. The focus is on how developing countries must concentrate on increasing their renewable energy production capability. The paper does not address other elements of the sustainability narrative, such as reducing pre-existing carbon emissions, environmental protection, poverty, and hunger; responsible consumerism; or the circular economy.

Gita Wirjawan

Gita Wirjawan

Visiting Scholar
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Policy Briefs
February 2024

Task Force Diplomacy

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August 2023

Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue Conference Proceedings

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Policy Briefs
November 2021

Accelerating Decarbonization in China and USA through Bilateral Collaboration

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A Critique of the Modern World's Approach to Sustainable Development

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Gita Wirjawan

Video Interview: Oriana Skylar Mastro on Risk of Taiwan Invasion and How to Deter It

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The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been front and center to the simmering tensions between China and the United States, but American and other world leaders are failing to take the measures necessary to deter China from taking Taiwan by force, argues Oriana Skylar Mastro, a center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and an expert on Chinese military and Asia-Pacific security. Mastro, who is also affiliated with APARC, joined the Center's Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the "Endgame" video podcast, to consider the likelihood of a war over Taiwan, Chinese military modernization, Beijing's ambitions in the South China Sea, and the future of Asia. 

Mastro believes Xi Jinping will use force to compel Taiwan to unite with the mainland once he is confident in the Chinese military’s ability to succeed in relevant joint operations, like an amphibious attack. She predicts that the flashpoint is likely to occur in 2027 — by which time, "if the pieces are on the board in a relatively similar manner" and the Chinese military is convinced it can quickly take over the island before the United States can intervene with force, then there will be nothing left "to convince Xi not to resolve this most important issue for the Communist Party."

This conversation with Mastro is part of an "Endgame" interview series Wirjawan is recording with Stanford experts during his residency at APARC.

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President Sauli Niinistö of Finland participates in a panel of Finnish and Stanford scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
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President Sauli Niinistö of Finland Discusses Security Cooperation and Defense with FSI Scholars

As the war in Ukraine continues to reshape security needs in Europe and globally, scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute agree that Finland can play a unique leadership role in defense and cybersecurity alliances.
cover link President Sauli Niinistö of Finland Discusses Security Cooperation and Defense with FSI Scholars
Gi-Wook Shin, Amb. Jung-Seung Shin, and Oriana Skylar Mastro at the Winter Payne Lecture
News

Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition

Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offered insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship, the impacts of the great power competition between the United States and China on South Korea, and the prospects for enhanced Korea-U.S. collaboration.
cover link Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition
Submarine with operators standing atop tower.
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What the Quad Could Learn From AUKUS

If the four powers decide to adopt a greater security role, they should go beyond empty signals.
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FSI Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on Chinese military and Asia-Pacific security, joined APARC Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the “Endgame” video podcast, to consider the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and what measures could help deter a potential war over the island.

Video Interview: Stephen Kotkin on Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and U.S.-China Lessons from the Conflict

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As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine reaches the two-year mark, the geopolitical reverberations of the assault have changed the dynamics of Western alliance systems, taxed the "no-limits" China-Russia partnership, and created an unexpected U.S.-E.U. alignment on China policy, tells Stanford historian and Russia expert Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, to APARC Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the popular 'Endgame" video podcast.

Kotkin, who is also APARC faculty and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, posits that the war in Ukraine has shocked Western European nations out of a dependence on Russian energy and increased scrutiny on partnerships with autocratic states that flaunt the rules-based international order. He calls this new dynamic a revival of Transatlanticism, arguing that a Transatlantic alliance could be deemed as a "pivot to Asia" and that the strengthening of institutional ties between the U.S. and the E.U. is vital to counter an ascendant China. 

In contrast with the popular portrayal of the U.S.-China competition as purely bilateral, Kotkin argues that, to compete with China, the United States must incorporate allies and other like-minded "institutional Western" nations (as opposed to geographically Western nations) in multilateral engagement.

"We have to share the planet with China," says Kotkin, but what are the terms of such coexistence, he asks, "and how do we negotiate those terms so that we preserve the free and open societies, the rule of law, the institutional West that accounts for our peace and prosperity?"

Throughout the conversation, Kotkin also addresses the perception of the increasing hegemony of China with respect to Southeast Asia, shares his intellectual influences, and talks about the importance of history in navigating the future.

This conversation with Kotkin is part of an "Endgame" interview series Wirjawan is recording with Stanford experts during his residency at APARC.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin
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The Next Tripartite Pact?

China, Russia, and North Korea’s New Team Is Not Built to Last
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US-China meeting at the Filoli estate prior to APEC 2023 in San Francisco
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Stopping the Spiral: Threat Perception and Interdependent Policy Behavior in U.S.-China Relations

A new article for The Washington Quarterly, co-authored by Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton, investigates the drivers of Chinese policy behavior, assesses the role of U.S. policy in shaping it, and suggests steps to reduce the heightened tensions between the two superpowers.
cover link Stopping the Spiral: Threat Perception and Interdependent Policy Behavior in U.S.-China Relations
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How the U.S. Should Adjust Its Defense Budget to Address China's Military Modernization

With contributions from military, government, and academic experts, a new volume explores what changes will be necessary in the U.S. military budget to keep the nation secure in a new geopolitical environment. A chapter by Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro focuses on how to update military spending to enhance U.S. capability to deter Chinese ambitions in Taiwan and beyond.
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FSI and APARC Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin joined APARC Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the “Endgame” video podcast, to share his analysis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, consider the threats posed by autocratic powers, and propose future avenues for the United States to effectively compete with China in a multilateral context.

Task Force Diplomacy

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Planet Earth in outer space with network connection and sunlight.

Highlights

  • Competition among the great powers is hindering the ability of multilateral cooperation to solve acute problems. The last true, successful multilateral agreement was probably the WTO's Uruguay Round in 1994.
  • The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated the failure of a multilateral response.
  • "Minilateral" groups, like the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) have received much attention recently, but they are not suited to global crises that require rapid action.
  • "Task Force Diplomacy," an approach that grew out of the pandemic, can be a useful approach for novel, acute global crises
  • Some features of Task Force Diplomacy include an urgent, concrete goal; 1–2 countries willing to take the lead; voluntary membership that is economically and regionally diverse; the inclusion of multilateral organizations when appropriate; senior official engagement in the effort; and the division of the problem into smaller pieces that each partner can tackle.


Summary

In an era of increasing great power competition between China, the United States, and Russia, multilateral cooperation to solve global problems has become measurably more difficult. Slow multilateral responses are particularly problematic in the face of acute problems requiring a strong, immediate response, as the failure of a comprehensive response to the recent global COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated. The evolving “minilateral” structures can aid in a response but are not flexible or comprehensive enough to coordinate a global response to many problems. Ad hoc voluntary coalitions of willing and capable states and organizations—“Task Forces”—sprang up to lead the COVID-19 response. This “Task Force Diplomacy” model proved to be a viable supplement to existing multilateral, minilateral, and bilateral groupings.  

Based on personal observations working on global cooperation aimed at addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a lifetime working on global and regional challenges, this is a first-cut effort to reflect on lessons learned that others can take as a starting point to move forward and embellish as we deal with mechanisms to address new fast-moving challenges in an evolving world characterized by great power competition. The intention is not to reinvent the international structure — indeed, the default response to global problems should remain multilateral, comprehensive cooperation — but rather to present a systemization of ways to deal with serious acute problems in which multilateral responses prove inadequate.

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Journal Articles
December 2023

China’s America Policy: Back to the Future

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September 2023

China’s Nuclear Enterprise

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September 2023

The Intelligence Community Meets the Twenty-First Century: Evolution, Not Revolution

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 A Cooperation Model for the Era of Great Power Competition

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Laura Stone

G-7 Should Form United Front Versus China: Ex-U.S. Trade Official

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Rintaro Tobita, Nikkei Staff Writer
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This commentary originally appeared in Nikkei Asia.


An economic response toward China will be a leading agenda item for the Group of Seven major economies this year, Michael Beeman, who served as assistant U.S. trade representative for Japan, South Korea and APEC affairs until January, told Nikkei.

"It is important to agree on the most pressing issues, which will send a message to the rest of the world," said Beeman, now a visiting scholar at Stanford University. The U.S. is urging European nations and Japan to align with export restrictions of advanced semiconductors. "The G-7 is the best forum for discussion," said Beeman, who stressed member nations should work together to address export curbs and other measures.

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Michael Beeman

Dr. Beeman is a Visiting Scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center for calendar year 2023 to research and write about trade policy issues such as economic security between the United States and Asia.
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Jean Oi at a lectern introducing the panelists of a session about U.S.-China decoupling in front of a room packed with audience members.
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Business Experts Unpack the Myths and Realities of Decoupling with China

In the second installment of a series recognizing the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the China Program gathered cross-sector executives currently engaged in reshaping their China businesses to shine a light on what U.S.-China tensions and potential decoupling between the two powers look like on the ground.
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Gi-Wook Shin, Amb. Jung-Seung Shin, and Oriana Skylar Mastro at the Winter Payne Lecture
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Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition

Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offered insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship, the impacts of the great power competition between the United States and China on South Korea, and the prospects for enhanced Korea-U.S. collaboration.
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YOSHIKI and Ichiro Fujisaki at The Future of Social Tech conference.
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Japanese and American Innovators Gather at Stanford to Examine the Future of Social Tech

Kicking off a special event series celebrating the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the Japan Program convened eminent entrepreneurs, investors, educators, and content creators, including global rock star YOSHIKI, to explore pathways for social impact innovation.
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Michael Beeman sees the group discussing trade sanctions that align with the U.S.

Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue

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The Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue convenes social science researchers and scientists from Stanford University and across the Asia-Pacific region, alongside student leaders, policymakers, and practitioners, to accelerate progress on achieving the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The conference aims to generate new research and policy partnerships to expedite the implementation of the Agenda's underlying framework of 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The two-day event is held in Seoul, South Korea, on October 27 and 28, 2022 Korea Standard Time, and is free and open to the public.

Registration is now open for in-person attendees. The conference is also offered online. Watch the live webcast from this page below (session available in English and Korean) and follow the conversation on Twitter: @StanfordSAPARC #AsiaSDGs2022.

The Dialogue's main hosts and organizers are Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future. The co-hosts are the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) and Ewha Womans University. The co-organizers include the Natural Capital Project (NatCap) of Stanford University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI), Korea Environment Corporation (K-eco), and Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water).

Day 1 Livestream (English)

Day 1 Livestream (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (English)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Student Panel (English)

NOTE: The times below are all in Korean Standard Time.

DAY 1: THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2022

Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Grand Ballroom​, The Plaza Seoul
119 Sogong-Ro, Jung-gu, Seoul

9:00 – 9:30 AM
Opening Session
Welcome remarks:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Congratulatory remarks:
Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and Chief Executive Officer and President of the Asia Society (pre-recorded video message)
Han Duck-soo, Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea

Plenary 1
9:45 – 10:45 AM
World Leaders Session

Keynotes:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Iván Duque, former President of the Republic of Colombia (live video link)
Gombojav Zandanshatar, Chairman of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia

Moderator:
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Plenary 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change Session

Organized by the Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Scientific Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Henry Gonzalez, Deputy Executive Director of Green Climate Fund

Panelists: 
Nabeel Munir, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Republic of Korea and Chair of the G77 at the United Nations
Hyoeun Jenny Kim, Ambassador and Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea
Oyun Sanjaasuren, Director of External Affairs of Green Climate Fund

Moderator:
Tae Yong Jung, Professor of Sustainable Development at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University

12:15 – 1:30 PM

Lunch 
Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Welcome remarks:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute

Congratulatory remarks:
Kim Sang-Hyup, Co-Chairperson of the 2050 Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Commission
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University

Plenary 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Multilateralism for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery Towards the Achievement of the SDGs

Organized by the Development Cooperation Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Hidehiko Yuzaki, Governor of Hiroshima Prefectural Government, Japan

Panelists:
Kaveh Zahedi, Deputy Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) (live video link)
Kim Sook, Executive Director of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future and former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations
Won Doyeon, Director-General of the Development Cooperation Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea 

Moderator:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University

Plenary 4
3:00 – 4:15 PM
KEI Green Korea: SDGs in North Korea

Organized by the Korea Environment Institute

Keynote: 
Sung Jin Kang, Professor of the Department of Economics and the Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University

Panelists:
Habil Bernhard Seliger, Representative of Hanns Seidel Stiftung - Seoul Office, Republic of Korea (pre-recorded video message)
Ganbold Baasanjav, Head of Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP)
Haiwon Lee, Emeritus Professor of Hanyang University and President of Asian Research Network for Global Partnership

Moderator:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute

Plenary 5
4:30 – 5:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve the SDGs

Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

Panelists:
Juan Pablo Bonilla, Manager of the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sector, Inter-American Development Bank
Choong Ki Kim, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute

Moderator:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

DAY 2: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2022

Hosted by Ewha Womans University 
52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul

Expert panels are held in Room B412
Student panels (see below) are held in Room B143
ECC, Ewha Womans University

9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Expert Panels

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

Expert Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Livable, Sustainable Cities

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Keynotes:
Park Heong-joon, Mayor of Busan Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea
Khurelbaatar Bulgantuya, Member of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia and Chair of Sustainable Development Goals Sub-Committee of Parliament

Panelists:
Anne Guerry, Chief Strategy Officer and Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University
Perrine Hamel, Assistant Professor at the Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University

Moderator:
Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Deputy Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Director of the Japan Program, Professor of Sociology, Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor of Japanese Studies, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice, Stanford University

Expert Panel 2
11: 00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change, Disaster Risks, and Human Security in Asia

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Juan M. Pulhin, Professor, Scientist, and former Dean of the College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños (live video link)
Rajib Shaw, Professor in the Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Rafael Schmitt, Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Jaehyun Jung, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University

12:15 – 1:30 PM
Lunch 
Hosted by Ewha Womans University

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University

Expert Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Valuing Nature in Finance for Systems Transformation

Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Elías Albagli, Director of the Monetary Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile

Panelists:
Qingfeng Zhang, Chief of Rural Development and Food Security (Agriculture) Thematic Group and Chief of Environment Thematic Group of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, Asian Development Bank (live video link)
Tong Wu, Senior Scientist and Associate Director of the China Program at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Chung Suh-Yong, Professor at the Division of International Studies of Korea University and Director of the Center for Climate and Sustainable Development Law and Policy of Seoul International Law Academy

Expert Panel 4
3:15 – 4:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve Sustainable Development

Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Mary Ruckelshaus, Director at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Panelists:
James Salzman, Donald Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the School of Law at the University of California, Los Angeles
Yong-Deok Cho, General Director at K-water and Secretary General of the Asia Water Council

Moderator:
Alejandra Echeverri, Senior Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Student Panels

Welcome remarks:
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

Student Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Green Financing and Sustainable Investments

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Assia Baric, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Siddharth Sachdeva, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Sevde Arpaci Ayhan, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University 
Mae Luky Iriani, Master’s student, Department of International Relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan
Wu Qichun, PhD candidate, Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya

Moderator:
Hannah Jun, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University

Student Panel 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Gender Mainstreaming and Climate Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Vimala Asty Fitra Tunggal Jaya, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Liza Goldberg, Undergraduate student, Computer Science Department and Earth Systems Program of the Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University
Gahyung Kim, PhD candidate, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University
Maria Golda Hilario, Master’s student, College of Liberal Arts, De La Salle University 
Putri Ananda, Master’s student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Moderator:
Minah Kang, Professor at the Department of Public Administration, Bioethics Policy Studies, and Department of International Studies, Ewha Womans University

Student Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Development Cooperation for Sustainable Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Elham Bokhari, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Suzanne Xianran Ou, PhD candidate, Department of Biology, Stanford University
So Yeon Park, PhD student, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University 
Emmanuel O. Balogun, PhD candidate, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
Darren Mangado, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
 
Moderator:
Jinhwan Oh, Professor of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University

Student Panel 4
3:15 – 4:45 PM
Bringing Environmental Solutions to Scale Through a Business and Social Justice Lens

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Panelists:
Patricia Aguado Gamero, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Sergio Sánchez López, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Felicia Istad, PhD candidate in Public Policy, Department of Public Administration, Korea University 
Sardar Ahmed Shah, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University 
Ma. Ella Calaor Oplas, PhD student in Development Studies and Faculty Member, School of Economics, De La Salle University
Shiina Tsuyuki, Undergraduate student, Keio University

Moderator:
Cheryll Alipio, Associate Director for Program and Policy of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University

Closing Session 
5:00 – 5:30 PM
Readying Human Capital for Sustainable Development

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Closing remarks:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Kim Bong-hyun, former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Australia, former President of Jeju Peace Institute, and Advisor to Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary General of the United Nations at the Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better Future

Offered online via live webcast and in-person in Seoul, South Korea.

Day 1: October 27, 9 AM - 5:30 PM KST | Grand Ballroom, The Plaza Hotel, Seoul
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Modern Authoritarianism and Geopolitics: Thoughts on a Policy Framework

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Modern Authoritarianism and Geopolitics: Thoughts on a Policy Framework

Once upon a time, there was a seductive story about twin revolutions, a political one in France and an industrial one in Britain, that supposedly ushered in our modern world. This narrative never sat well with empirical realities, yet it lives on in textbooks. What might be a more persuasive framework for a global history of the modern era? What are the implications for research and the teaching of history?

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Steve Kotkin
Stephen Kotkin is the John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs in what used to be called the Woodrow Wilson School and in the History Department of Princeton University, as well as a Senior Fellow (adjunct) at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He directs the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies and co-directs its program in History and the Practice of Diplomacy, which he founded. He also founded Princeton’s Global History Initiative. His scholarship encompasses geopolitics and authoritarian regimes in history and in the present.

Kotkin has published two volumes of a three-volume history of the world as seen from Stalin’s desk: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928 (Penguin, November 2014) and Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941 (Penguin, October 2017). The final installment, Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, is underway. He writes reviews and essays for Foreign Affairs, the Times Literary Supplement, and The Wall Street Journal, and served as the business book reviewer for The New York Times Sunday Business Section. He is an occasional consultant for governments and some private companies. PhD UC Berkeley (1988).

 

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Stephen Kotkin John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs
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Invasions Are Not Contagious

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Oriana Skylar Mastro
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This essay was originally published in Foreign Affairs magazine.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin intensifies his assault on Ukraine, a growing number of U.S. military and foreign policy analysts are voicing concern that China may be emboldened by Russia’s example and try to take Taiwan by force. “If Russia can grab chunks of Ukraine or install a puppet regime and withstand economic sanctions, that could embolden nationalists in China to look to Taiwan and think they could do the same,” Ian Johnson, a China expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, has argued. Representative Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas, made a similar argument in an interview last month, as did retired Army General Jack Keane, who said that Chinese President Xi Jinping sees “weakness in the West and how that can advantage him in terms of his national objectives as well.”

Xi is certainly watching events in Ukraine, but his calculus for whether to use force against Taiwan is shaped primarily by domestic factors, not foreign ones. As I have argued in Foreign Affairs, Chinese leaders are considering “armed reunification” with Taiwan more seriously than at any time in the last 50 years. But Xi will assert Chinese control over the island only if he is confident his military can conduct a successful amphibious invasion and if he believes the timing is right for his own career.

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Shifts in the international environment would be important for Taiwan if they changed Xi’s thinking on either count. But the war in Ukraine has not. Xi’s views about U.S. power and resolve and about the likely international response to an invasion of Taiwan probably remain unchanged. If anything, China’s desire not to invite comparisons with Russia at a time when the world is united against Moscow will lengthen its timeline for taking control of Taiwan, not shorten it.

Too Big to Sanction?

The economic sanctions that the United States, Canada, and many European countries have imposed on Russia give China little reason for pause. To the contrary, these punitive measures simply confirm Beijing’s previous assessments of the possible economic repercussions of using force against Taiwan. Chinese leaders expect the economic costs of an invasion to be heavy but acceptable—partly because of how the international community has responded to Chinese provocations in the past and partly because Beijing’s foreign policy is designed to convince countries to stay out of China’s “internal” affairs, such as the status of Taiwan.

That is not to say the economic measures Washington and its allies have imposed on Russia in recent days are insignificant. The United States and European countries have blocked Russia’s access to most of its foreign currency reserves, making it impossible for Moscow to intervene to prop up its collapsing currency. They have frozen the assets of senior Russian officials, including Putin himself. And they have moved to exclude big Russian banks from SWIFT, the global financial messaging system.

China’s ability to retaliate against the West with economic sanctions of its own is much greater than Russia’s.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

But the United States and its allies could do more to punish Russia. They could bar all transactions with Russia, whether trade or financial. They could seize all Russian assets within their jurisdictions. Washington could announce secondary sanctions on anyone using U.S. dollars for any transaction with Russia. Most important, the United States could use these and other measures to prevent Russia from exporting oil and gas. Letting Russia continue to export oil and gas would be like letting China sell consumer electronics even after it had taken Taiwan by force.

If the United States and its allies have been cautious in their response to Russia, they are likely to be even more restrained when responding to China — and Beijing knows it. China’s ability to retaliate against the West with economic sanctions of its own is much greater than Russia’s. Singapore, which announced trade and banking restrictions against Moscow, trades about $2.5 billion worth of goods with Russia each year — but $57 billion worth of goods with China. China’s leaders likely do not fear U.S.-led economic sanctions in the event of a Taiwan takeover because they probably think that China’s own productive capacity, resources, and friendly partners will allow them to survive on their own, especially since China will soon be the world’s largest economy. They are probably right. China could absorb the types of sanctions being imposed on Russia. And given China’s ability to inflict pain on Western countries, any measures levied against Beijing would likely be softer than those imposed on Moscow.

Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

The Western military response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have an even smaller impact than sanctions on China’s thinking about Taiwan. True, neither the United States nor NATO has deployed troops to fight on Ukraine’s behalf. And U.S. military assistance to Ukraine has been modest: late last month, President Joe Biden instructed the State Department to release up to an additional $350 million worth of weapons from U.S. stocks to Ukraine.

But Russia would have to invade a NATO ally without provoking a U.S. military response for Chinese leaders to seriously question Washington’s commitment to defending Taiwan. Biden has made clear from the beginning of the crisis that his administration will never send troops to Ukraine—a stark contrast with his rhetoric on Taiwan. Just last week, Biden stated unequivocally that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. As a show of support, he also sent to the island a delegation of former U.S. officials led by Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Chinese planners largely assume the United States would intervene militarily on behalf of Taiwan.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

In any case, Chinese planners largely assume the United States would intervene militarily on behalf of Taiwan. What some of them question is whether the United States could amass enough forces fast enough to blunt a Chinese assault on the island. Ironically, if the United States had launched a military operation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leaders would have had further reason to question Washington’s ability to thwart a Chinese assault on Taiwan. The United States does not have the resources to fight the Russians in Europe and prepare adequately for a great-power war in Asia.  

Of course, these facts have not prevented China from trying to manipulate the narrative to undermine Taiwan’s resolve. Chinese state media has been flush with stories about how the United States did not come to Ukraine’s aid and therefore won’t come to Taiwan’s either. Like much of what appears on Chinese state media, however, these stories reflect what Chinese leaders want the world to believe—not what they believe themselves.

Not the Right Time

Chinese leaders are without a doubt considering an attack on Taiwan, but now is not the right time. China’s military is still honing the capabilities it would need to take and hold the island. And Xi is unlikely to take a dangerous gamble on Taiwan before the next Party Congress in late 2022, when he is widely expected to secure a third term as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi is also working hard to lessen China’s technological dependence on the West, thus minimizing the impact on any further decoupling after a possible war. For all these reasons, an assault on Taiwan before 2025 is unlikely.

If anything, the crisis in Ukraine creates an additional incentive for China to wait. Beijing does not want the world to equate the two scenarios. From China’s perspective, Ukraine is an independent country engaged in a border dispute with Russia. Taiwan, by contrast, “has always been an inalienable part of China’s territory,” as China’s ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Deng Xijun, put it late last month. In other words, linking the two issues would undermine China’s claim to the island.

China also understands that moving against Taiwan now would solidify fears in the West of an axis of autocrats. The United States may not have the resolve to fight a protracted war to defend Taiwan. But suddenly faced with a need to defend freedom and democracy against an authoritarian alliance, Washington could muster a greater military response and convince its allies to do the same. Partly for this reason, China has desperately tried to maintain some semblance of neutrality during the Ukrainian crisis.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has certainly changed aspects of the international order. It has rallied European countries against Russia, prompted Germany to increase defense spending, and even convinced historically neutral countries such as Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland to take a stance against Moscow. From China’s perspective, however, nothing Russia or its adversaries have done meaningfully alters the calculus on Taiwan. 

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Oriana Skylar Mastro

Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Deterrence and Defense Across the Taiwan Strait

Learn more about Oriana Skylar Mastro's research project analyzing the political and strategic dynamics underpinning deterrence in the region.
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Russia’s War in Ukraine Doesn’t Presage a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

Ukraine Is a Distraction from Taiwan

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Oriana Skylar Mastro
Elbridge Colby
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This commentary was originally published by The Wall Street Journal.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be the most consequential use of military force in Europe since World War II and could put Moscow in a position to threaten U.S. allies in Europe. Many in the American foreign-policy establishment argue that the appropriate U.S. response to any such invasion is a major American troop deployment to the Continent. This would be a grave mistake.

The U.S. can no longer afford to spread its military across the world. The reason is simple: an increasingly aggressive China, the most powerful state to rise in the international system since the U.S. itself. By some measures, China’s economy is now the world’s largest. And it has built a military to match its economic heft. Twenty-five years ago, the Chinese military was backward and obsolete. But extraordinary increases in Beijing’s defense budget over more than two decades, and top political leaders’ razor-sharp focus, have transformed the People’s Liberation Army into one of the strongest militaries the world has ever seen.

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China’s new military is capable not only of territorial defense but of projecting power. Besides boasting the largest navy in the world by ship count, China enjoys some capabilities, like certain types of hypersonic weapons, that even the U.S. hasn’t developed.

Most urgently, China poses an increasingly imminent threat to Taiwan. Xi Jinping has made clear that his platform of “national rejuvenation” can’t be successful until Taiwan unifies with the mainland—whether it wants to or not. The PLA is growing more confident in its ability to conquer Taiwan even if the U.S. intervenes. Given China’s military and economic strength, China’s leaders reasonably doubt that the U.S. or anyone else would mount a meaningful response to an invasion of Taiwan. To give a sense of his resolve, Mr. Xi warned that any “foreign forces” standing in China’s way would have “their heads . . . bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

If Taiwan falls into Chinese hands, the U.S. will find it harder to defend critical allies like Japan and the Philippines, while China will be able to project its naval, air and other forces close to the U.S. and its territories

The U.S. must defend Taiwan to retain its credibility as the leader of a coalition for a free and open Indo-Pacific. From a military perspective, Taiwan is a vital link in the first island chain of the Western Pacific. If Taiwan falls into Chinese hands, the U.S. will find it harder to defend critical allies like Japan and the Philippines, while China will be able to project its naval, air and other forces close to the U.S. and its territories. Taiwan is also an economic dynamo, the ninth-largest U.S. trading partner of goods with a near-monopoly on the most advanced semiconductor technology—to which the U.S. would most certainly lose access after a war.

The Biden administration this month ordered more than 6,000 additional U.S. troops deployed to Eastern Europe, with many more potentially on the way. These deployments would involve major additional uncounted commitments of air, space, naval and logistics forces needed to enable and protect them. These are precisely the kinds of forces needed to defend Taiwan. The critical assets—munitions, top-end aviation, submarines, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities—that are needed to fight Russia or China are in short supply. For example, stealthy heavy bombers are the crown jewel of U.S. military power, but there are only 20 in the entire Air Force.

The U.S. has no hope of competing with China and ensuring Taiwan’s defense if it is distracted elsewhere. It is a delusion that the U.S. can, as Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said recently, “walk and chew gum at the same time” with respect to Russia and China. Sending more resources to Europe is the definition of getting distracted. Rather than increasing forces in Europe, the U.S. should be moving toward reductions.

To be blunt: Taiwan is more important than Ukraine. America’s European allies are in a better position to take on Russia than America’s Asian allies are to deal with China.

There is a viable alternative for Europe’s defense: The Europeans themselves can step up and do more for themselves, especially with regard to conventional arms. This is well within Europe’s capacity, as the combined economic power of the NATO states dwarfs that of Russia. NATO allies spend far more on their militaries than Russia. To aid its European allies, the U.S. can provide various forms of support, including lethal weapons, while continuing to remain committed to NATO’s defense, albeit in a more constrained fashion, by providing high-end and fungible military capabilities. The U.S. can also continue to extend its nuclear deterrent to NATO.

The U.S. should remain committed to NATO’s defense but husband its critical resources for the primary fight in Asia, and Taiwan in particular. Denying China the ability to dominate Asia is more important than anything that happens in Europe. To be blunt: Taiwan is more important than Ukraine. America’s European allies are in a better position to take on Russia than America’s Asian allies are to deal with China. The Chinese can’t be allowed to think that America’s distraction in Ukraine provides them with a window of opportunity to invade Taiwan. The U.S. needs to act accordingly, crisis or not.

Ms. Mastro is a center fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, part of Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Colby is a principal at the Marathon Initiative and author of “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.”

Headshot of Oriana Skylar Mastro

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Full Biography

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cover link Would the United States Come to Taiwan's Defense?
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Getting bogged down in Europe will impede the U.S.’s ability to compete with China in the Pacific.

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