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Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has reignited debates about the United States' role in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and democratic recession. The return of Trump to the White House will have profound implications for Asia. To assess the stakes for the region, APARC convened a panel of experts who weighed in on the potential risks and opportunities the second Trump administration’s policies may pose for Asian nations and how regional stakeholders look at their future with the United States. Another panel, organized by APARC’s China Program, focused on what’s ahead for U.S.-China relations.

High Stakes for the Asia-Pacific

APARC’s panel, The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections: High Stakes for Asia, examined how the return of Trump’s political ideology and the macroeconomic effects of his foreign policy will affect Asia.

“We are witnessing the solidification of Trumpism as an influential political ideology,” stated APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin at the opening of the discussion, “one that has begun to transcend traditional  American conservatism. Trumpism — marked by a blend of economic nationalism, nativism, and a strongman approach to leadership —could have a huge impact not only in American society but also on the liberal global order.”

According to Shin, Trump’s policies, particularly his focus on unilateralism and economic self-interest, could significantly alter the political and economic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, argued that Trump’s victory was no longer an anomaly but part of a larger trend of working-class voters shifting allegiance from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Fukuyama expressed concerns about Trump’s aggressive economic policies, including imposing broad tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and warned that such policies could result in inflation, trade tensions, and long-term economic instability. In addition, he asserted that Trump’s reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts could undermine the United States’ commitments to security alliances, particularly in Asia.

APARC Deputy Director and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui emphasized the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s policies, noting that Trump’s "America First" approach could further erode the international liberal order. He suggested that Japan would face significant challenges navigating the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policies. According to Tsutsui, “There might be greater pressure to line up with the United States in dealing with China economically, which would  put a great deal of strain on the Japanese economy.” Such an alignment might also muddle Japan’s own diplomatic and security interests.

Gita Wirjawan, a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy and former visiting scholar at APARC, focused on the stakes for Southeast Asia. Wirjawan argued that Trump’s economic policies, such as protectionism and prioritizing economic growth over democratic principles, could embolden right-wing populist movements in Southeast Asia. He suggested that parts of Southeast Asia could be a natural beneficiary of a reallocation of financial capital from the U.S. as companies diversify supply chains by establishing operations outside China in response to Trump’s planned tariffs. Yet, growing economic inequality in Southeast Asia, particularly in urban areas, could fuel the rise of similar nationalist policies, undermining efforts to promote inclusive, democratic development.

Shin highlighted the challenges South Korea might face under a second Trump presidency. Trump will likely demand higher defense payments from South Korea, potentially straining the U.S.-ROK alliance. This could put President Yoon in a tough spot, especially as trilateral U.S.-Japan-Korea cooperation has been progressing well but faces uncertainty. Economically, South Korean firms may struggle if U.S. policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are rolled back, as subsidies were crucial for their investments in the U.S. On North Korea, Shin noted that Trump may resume summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, leaving South Korea sidelined and potentially sparking an arms race in Northeast Asia. 

The panelists all emphasized that Asia, with its diverse political landscapes, would need to navigate a new era of economic nationalism and geopolitical unpredictability, with potential challenges to economic stability and democratic norms.

A Focus on U.S.-China Relations 

The second panel, "Crossroads of Power: U.S.-China Relations in a New Administration," focused specifically on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations in the wake of the election. Moderated by APARC China Program Director Jean Oi, the discussion featured Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Peking University's Yu Tiejun, the APARC's China Policy Fellow during fall 2024. The panelists analyzed the potential trade, security, and diplomacy shifts between the two global superpowers, particularly in light of Washington's bipartisan consensus on China. 

Central to the discussion was the continuity of U.S. policy toward China under the first Trump administration and the Biden administration. Examples of this continuity included recent tariff increases on Chinese imports, a new U.S. Department of the Treasury program to screen U.S. outbound foreign investments in key sectors, and tighter export controls on critical technologies like quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. The panelists explored the economic and strategic ramifications, noting that these policies could disrupt existing trade patterns. 

Another area of concern was China’s uneven implementation of the 2020 Phase One  trade deal it negotiated with the U.S., in which China had committed to domestic reforms and $200 billion of additional U.S. imports. This failure could buttress the new administration’s plan to increase tariffs, complicating diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing. Fingar noted that while China has made efforts to diversify its supply chains, these changes might not be enough to shield it from the effects of U.S. economic policies, which could include escalating tariffs or additional restrictions on Chinese exports. 

The conversation also touched on broader geopolitical considerations, particularly concerning China’s role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The panelists discussed the potential for cooperation or de-escalation in U.S.-China relations, with China’s positioning on the war serving as both a point of contention and a possible avenue for diplomatic engagement. 

Underscoring the deepening complexities in U.S.-China relations post-election, the panelists highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, particularly regarding the role of people-to-people exchanges in fostering mutual understanding.

Both events emphasized the multifaceted consequences of Trump’s return to power for Asia and the global international order. While the discussions highlighted the challenges posed by the rise of economic nationalism, trade tensions, and shifting security priorities, they also pointed to potential areas of cooperation and the evolving dynamics of global diplomacy.


In the Media


From Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro:

What a Second Trump Term Means for the World
OnPoint – WBUR, Nov 12 (interview)

Race to the White House: How the US Election Will Impact Foreign Policy
UBS Circle One, October 23 (interview)

From Visiting Scholar Michael Beeman:

On Korea-U.S. Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Yonhap News, Nov 20 (featured)

Trump Looking for Trade 'Reset' with Most Countries: Ex-USTR Official
Nikkei, Nov 16 (interview)

How Southeast Asia Can Weather the Trump Trade Typhoon
The Economist, Nov 14 (quoted)

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Gi-Wook Shin, Evan Medeiros, and Xinru Ma in conversation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab Engages Washington Stakeholders with Policy-Relevant Research on US-China Relations and Regional Issues in Asia

Lab members recently shared data-driven insights into U.S.-China tensions, public attitudes toward China, and racial dynamics in Asia, urging policy and academic communities in Washington, D.C. to rethink the Cold War analogy applied to China and views of race and racism in Asian nations.
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Shorenstein Journalism Award Winner Chris Buckley Considers How Historical Memory Determines China’s Present

In the era of Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party has reasserted control over the recollection and retelling of the past as vital sources for shaping Chinese national identity and global power projection, says Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The New York Times and the recipient of the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award.
Shorenstein Journalism Award Winner Chris Buckley Considers How Historical Memory Determines China’s Present
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Driving Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Inclusive Industrialization: Highlights from the Third Annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue

Held at Stanford and hosted by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the third annual Dialogue convened global leaders, academics, industry experts, and emerging experts to share best practices for advancing Sustainable Development Goal 9 in support of economic growth and human well-being.
Driving Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Inclusive Industrialization: Highlights from the Third Annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue
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APARC recently hosted two panels to consider what a second Trump presidency might mean for economic, security, and political dynamics across Asia and U.S. relations with Asian nations.

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Flyer for a sminar about the adverse effects of seasonal allergies with an illistration of pollen under microscope and headshots of the speaker.

Although at least 400 million people suffer from seasonal allergies worldwide, the adverse effects of pollen on “non-health” outcomes, such as cognition and productivity, are relatively understudied. Using ambulance archives from Japan, we demonstrate that high pollen days are associated with increased accidents and injuries—one of the most extreme consequences of cognitive impairment. We find some evidence of avoidance behavior in buying allergy products but limited evidence in curtailing outdoor activity, implying that the cognitive risk of pollen exposure is discounted. Our results suggest that policymakers may wish to consider programs to raise public awareness of the risk and promote behavioral change.

Shigeoka, Hitoshi 010725

Hitoshi Shigeoka received a B.A. (2001) and an MA (2003) in chemical engineering from University of Tokyo, and master of international affairs (2006) and PhD in economics (2012) from Columbia University. In addition to his position as Professor at the University of Tokyo, Shigeoka is an Associate Professor at Simon Fraser University, a Research Associate with the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a Research Fellow of IZA. A well-recognized expert in health economics as well as labor, public, and behavioral economics, he has published in many top journals and serves on the Board of Editors for the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy as well as Associate Editor for the Journal of Health Economics and the Japanese Economic Review. His recent research spans topics ranging from healthcare price elasticity and vaccine mandates to peer effects in education, AI and productivity, and CEO gender bias.

Hitoshi Shigeoka, Professor, University of Tokyo
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This is part of Global Research Workshop series: Developing an Interdisciplinary Research Platform Toward ‘Next Asia’ co-sponsored by Stanford Global Studies.

This study critically examines the discourse of racism “denial” across 16 countries in Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia, through analysis of state reports submitted to the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) over a 45-year span. Using critical discourse analysis, this study identifies and classifies patterns of denial—literal, interpretive, and ideological—with inductively developed subcategories. The significance of this work lies in its exploration of denial as more than a rhetorical tool for deflecting accusations; rather, denial functions as a deeply embedded mechanism within state discourses, shaped by social, political, and religious values, as well as by struggles for national liberation, unity, and security. By unpacking these layers in historically and comparatively informed ways, this research reveals how various forms of denial hinder public engagement and intellectual acknowledgment of racism, providing valuable insights that support frameworks for anti-racist policies and advocacy efforts.

Presenter:

Junki Nakahara

Junki Nakahara is a postdoctoral fellow at the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, housed within the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Her research interests include nationalism, critical and cultural studies, feminist media studies, and postcolonial and decolonial international relations. She studies the contemporary dominance and institutionalization of nationalism, entangled with racism, xenophobia, historical revisionism (e.g., denial of wartime atrocities), and misogyny, primarily focusing on East Asia. Nakahara earned her PhD in Communication (2023) and MA in Intercultural and International Communication (2019), both from American University. Her publications include contributions to New Media & Society, Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, and Discourse Approaches to an Emerging Age of Populism (edited by I. Íñigo-Mora & Lastres-López).

Discussants:

Vasuki Nesiah

Vasuki Nesiah teaches human rights, legal and social theory at NYU Gallatin school where she is also faculty director of the Gallatin Global Fellowship in Human Rights. She has published on the history and politics of human rights, humanitarianism, international criminal law, reparations, global feminisms, and decolonization. A founding member of Third World Approaches to International Law (TWAIL), she is co-editing TWAIL: A Handbook. She has ongoing book projects including International Conflict Feminism (forthcoming, University of Pennsylvania Press) and Reading the Ruins: Colonialism, Slavery, and International Law. She has taught globally through Harvard Law School’s Institute for Global Law and Policy and previously worked as a human rights lawyer at the International Center for Transitional Justice, where she founded the Gender Program.

Sharika Thiranagama

Sharika Thiranagama’s research examines the intersections of political mobilization and domestic life in contexts marked by violence, inequality, and intense political engagement. Her work is grounded in Sri Lanka and Kerala, South India, focusing on themes of war, displacement, family, caste, and gender. Her book, In My Mother’s House: Civil War in Sri Lanka, explores the impact of civil war on Sri Lankan Tamil and Muslim minorities, addressing themes of intergenerational relations, militarization, and post-war life. In Kerala, her research centers on Dalit agricultural laborers and the lasting legacies of caste and enslavement, discussing household economies, caste, and neighborhood dynamics. Her upcoming work will revisit inheritance and caste in post-war Sri Lanka, focusing on Tamil and Muslim communities in Jaffna.

Okimoto Conference Room
Encina Hall, 3rd Floor

Junki Nakahara, Postdoctoral Fellow in Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, Stanford University Presenter
Discussant: Vasuki Nesiah, Professor of Practice, New York University Gallatin School Discussant
Discussant: Sharika Thiranagama, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Stanford University Discussant
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Tiejun Yu Talk Poster Cropped

 

The Asia-Pacific is witnessing a rapid reconfiguration of alliances, with profound implications for China-U.S. relations and regional security and stability.

On one side, the U.S. has been strengthening its hub-and-spoke alliance system in this region while creating new alliances like AUKUS. On another side, Russia and the DPRK have fundamentally improved their security cooperation during the Russia-Ukraine War. All this while China is caught between its deep worry about what it perceives as an Asia-Pacific version of NATO and its reluctant entanglement in the Russia-DPRK Pact.

How is China navigating this complex and evolving landscape?

The China Program at Stanford’s Shorenstein APARC welcomes Prof Yu Tiejun to cover these new developments and analyze the perils of alliance dilemma in the Asia-Pacific region.

Yu Tiejun is APARC's China Policy Fellow for the 2024 fall quarter. He currently serves as President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) and Professor at the School of International Studies (SIS), all at Peking University (PKU). Previously, he studied at the University of Tokyo in 1998-2000. He served as visiting fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University in 2005, and also as visiting scholar at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University in 2005/6.

Philippines Room, Encina Hall (3rd floor), Room C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Tiejun Yu, President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) at Peking University and Visiting Scholar at APARC
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Taiwan Studies in the US_ Dec 10, 2024

Taiwan studies have established themselves as a standalone field of scholarship. In recent decades, new initiatives and study centers on Taiwan have emerged across the United States. At Stanford University, the newly established Taiwan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center serves as an interdisciplinary research and education hub on contemporary Taiwan. As the program aims to drive dialogue on Taiwan’s long-term development and future, how can we further facilitate and advance Taiwan scholarship in this new era? How can we collectively build networks and foster scholarly engagement transnationally? What challenges do we face, and what are some possible solutions and prospective directions? In this closing panel of our Taiwan Program's fall 2024 colloquium series, we are pleased to invite three scholars to share their approaches to promoting and conducting Taiwan studies in diverse academic settings, focusing on three main themes:

  1. Mapping and Identity Building: Gain insights into the structures of Taiwan study centers in the U.S. and explore how they adapt to local environments, position their institutions, and foster scholarly connections.
  2. Networking and Collaboration: Learn about the common challenges and strategies for launching and sustaining Taiwan studies programs.
  3. Scholarly and Policy Contributions: Explore strategies for publishing, collaborating, and making Taiwan visible within U.S. academia.

     

The event will begin with the panelists, each delivering a 15-minute presentation on promoting transnational engagement between Taiwan and the United States. This will be followed by a moderated discussion among the panelists, highlighting the similarities and differences encountered by each center and reflections of exploring how they addressed challenges in unique ways. The event will conclude with an open Q&A session for the audience.

Speakers:

William Lavely 20241210

Bill Lavely is a social demographer who has written on Chinese fertility, marriage, mortality, sex ratios, and historical demography.  He did graduate work at UC-Berkeley and the University of Michigan, and has done field work in Taiwan, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Hainan.

 

 

Wei-Hsin Yu 20241210

Wei-hsin Yu is a sociologist and social demographer specializing in the areas of social stratification and gender inequality. Her research focuses on how macrolevel forces influence individuals, paying special attention to their labor market outcomes, family behaviors, and health and wellbeing. She has published two books and numerous articles in peer-reviewed journals, including American Sociological Review, American Journal of Sociology, Social Forces, and Demography. Her current projects address questions including how work conditions and demographic changes contribute to wage disparities; how family dynamics shape youth development; and how immigrants’ health and wellbeing evolve in the United States. She is also conducting multiple projects in East Asia (Japan, Taiwan, China), centering on the themes of marriage and relationship formation and educational inequality, respectively.

 

Howard Chiang 20241210

Howard Chiang is the author of two award-winning monographs: After Eunuchs: Science, Medicine, and the Transformation of Sex in Modern China (Columbia University Press, 2018) and Transtopia in the Sinophone Pacific (Columbia University Press, 2021). He has edited such collections as The Global Encyclopedia of LGBTQ History (Gale, 2019), The Making of the Human Sciences in China: Historical and Conceptual Foundations (Brill, 2019), Queer Taiwanese Literature: A Reader (Cambria, 2021), and Sinophone Studies Across Disciplines: A Reader (with Shu-mei Shih; Columbia University Press, 2024). He is currently completing two books: Trans Without Borders: Decolonial Histories and Mind Hunters: Psychoanalysis, Race, and the Politics of Transcultural Science in the Sinophone Pacific. He edits the “Critical Perspectives on Taiwan” series with Columbia University Press.

Moderator:

Headshot for Gi-Wook Shin

Gi-Wook Shin is William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in sociology and director of Shorenstein APARC and its Taiwan Program.

 

 

 

Gi-Wook Shin
Gi-Wook Shin
Bill Lavely, Professor of International Studies and Sociology, Director of the East Asia Center, and Chair of the Taiwan Studies Program, University of Washington
Wei-hsin Yu, Professor of Sociology and Faculty Affiliate of Asia Pacific Center, University of California, Los Angeles
Howard Chiang, Lai Ho & Wu Cho-liu Endowed Chair in Taiwan Studies, Professor of East Asian Languages & Cultural Studies, and Director of the Center for Taiwan Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara
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Flyer for the webinar "Planetary Health in Asia and Its Global Position," with a photo of fishing boats in Dharla River, Bangladesh, and portraits of the speakers.

Co-sponsored by Peking University's Institute for Global Health and Development and the Asia Health Policy Program

This event explores the vital intersection of digital innovation and field experience in planetary health, focusing on Asia's unique position in global environmental and health challenges. It brings together two complementary perspectives to examine the measurement and improvement of planetary health outcomes. The first presentation introduces the Planetary Health Axis System (PHAS), an innovative digital platform that systematically evaluates human, animal, and ecological health against planetary boundaries across regions. With a focus on Asian countries, this system offers new insights into how different regions perform against key planetary health metrics. The second presentation shares significant research from the Stanford Center for Human and Planetary Health, particularly focusing on human and environmental health studies in Bangladesh and other Asian regions, while also offering valuable perspectives on digital planetary health assessment approaches. Through these discussions, the event aims to bridge the gap between data-driven approaches and field research, exploring how Asia's planetary health challenges and solutions contribute to the global landscape.

Ermo Chen 20241205

Dr. Ermo Chen holds a PhD in Statistics from the School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University. His research areas include health economics, planetary health, actuarial science, and financial statistics. Previously, he served as the Head of Risk Management and Chief Data Scientist at Aden Tech., and as an Actuarial Manager at China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation. His research primarily employs high-dimensional statistics and machine learning to extract deep attributes from big data, supporting optimal economic decision-making that considers risk in dynamic environments. He was awarded the 2019 China Health Insurance Innovation Award, and also the actuary for China's first weather-health index insurance product.

Stephen Luby 20241205

Dr. Stephen Luby studied philosophy and earned a Bachelor of Arts summa cum laude from Creighton University. He earned his medical degree from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School at Dallas and completed his residency in internal medicine at the University of Rochester-Strong Memorial Hospital. He studied epidemiology and preventive medicine at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. Luby's previous positions include directing the Centre for Communicable Diseases at the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh in Dhaka, Bangladesh from 2004 - 2012, conducting research and teaching epidemiology at the Aga Khan University in Karachi, Pakistan from 1993 - 1998, and working as an epidemiologist in the Foodborne and Diarrheal Diseases Branch of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Online via Zoom Webinar

Ermo Chen, Boya Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University, Chief Scientist of Planetary Health Axis System (PHAS) Project
Stephen Luby, Lucy Becker Professor of Medicine, Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Professor, by courtesy, of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University
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Team members of the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) recently presented findings from several of the lab’s research projects at forums and meetings with policy and academic communities in Washington, D.C. Their activities included a joint symposium with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a presentation at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, and meetings with think tanks and Congress members. These policy engagements are supported by a Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies grant.

SNAPL, which is housed at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), is led by sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, a senior fellow at FSI, and the director of APARC and the Korea Program. SNAPL is committed to generating evidence-based policy recommendations and promoting transnational collaboration with academic and policy institutions to advance the future prosperity of Asia and U.S.-Asia relations.

On September 16, 2024, SNAPL and CSIS co-hosted the symposium “A New Cold War?: Congressional Rhetoric and Regional Reactions to the U.S.-China Rivalry.” At this event, SNAPL team members presented fresh perspectives on the U.S.-China relationship, grounded in two original studies that challenge the application of the “new Cold War” narrative to frame the competition between the two powers. Both studies are part of SNAPL’s U.S.-Asia Relations research track.

Research Fellow Xinru Ma shared the first study, “A New Cold War? An Analysis of Congressional Discourse on U.S. Rivalries with the USSR, Japan, and China.” Discussant Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies and the Cling Family Senior Fellow in US-China Relations at Georgetown University, commented on the study. In a following session, Postdoctoral Fellow Gidong Kim presented a second study, “The U.S. Alliance and Public Attitudes toward China: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region.” Discussant Matthew Kroenig, professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, offered feedback on the research.

Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive our scholars’ research updates > 


Moving Beyond Cold War Comparisons


Ma’s study, which analyzes over 41,000 Congressional speeches, upends the notion that today’s U.S.-China tensions mirror Cold War dynamics. The research shows that Cold War debates historically focused on two primary themes — ideological expansion and military aggression — with the former as the dominant concern. By contrast, current concerns about China center on human rights issues more than outward ideological expansion, while military concerns focus on budgetary issues rather than the kind of direct confrontations that defined the Cold War.

Ma’s findings also reveal that the current U.S.-China rivalry bears more resemblance to the U.S.-Japan economic competition of the 1980s, where economic concerns and domestic priorities took center stage rather than ideological or military threats. With these findings, the study establishes an empirical baseline for defining the current state of the U.S.-China relationship, illuminating the risks of framing it by the misleading “new Cold War” label.

Risks of the Cold War Analogy: Policy Implications


Ma’s study highlights that Cold War-era strategies are ill-suited for addressing the challenges posed by China today. Clinging to a Cold War analogy presents several risks:

  • Misguided Focus: Framing China as a Cold War-like rival risks overemphasizing military buildup and ideological competition globally, overlooking the true nature of today’s competition, which is primarily economic and technological.
  • Paranoia and Isolationism: The new Cold War analogy could foster a climate of paranoia and isolation, undermining the principles of open engagement and collaboration that have historically supported American leadership. Maintaining open dialogue and people-to-people exchanges that promote democratic values and human rights is more effective for preserving U.S. leadership in addressing ideological differences with China than confrontational ideological warfare.

The study has even further implications for U.S. domestic debates:
 

  • Impacts on the American Workforce: At a bilateral level, the economic tensions that constitute the backbone of today's challenges with China, such as concerns over the loss of American jobs, were virtually missing from the dynamics of the Cold War era. Addressing these tensions requires new strategies and measures such as reinforcing free trade practices, upgrading infrastructure, upskilling the workforce, and fostering technological innovation.
  • Overlooked U.S. Domestic Challenges: The Cold War analogy can also lead to ignorance about challenges rooted in pressing U.S. domestic issues — such as education inequality, the opioid crisis, and political polarization — which could be more consequential to American global leadership than the challenges China poses.
(From left): Gi-Wook Shin, Matthew Kroenig, and Gidong Kim in conversation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
(From left): Gi-Wook Shin, Matthew Kroenig, and Gidong Kim in conversation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. | CSIS

Public Perceptions of China in U.S. Allies


Kim’s study examines how geopolitical contexts such as the U.S.-China tensions and alliance relationships shape public attitudes toward China among citizens of U.S. allies. It analyzes data from the Gallup World Poll (2006-2022) covering 22 Asia-Pacific countries and the Asian Barometer Survey (2010-2021) from 14 countries.

The study shows that U.S. alliances and the U.S.-China rivalry influence public attitudes toward China. It finds that, as U.S.-China tensions escalate, citizens in U.S. allied countries — unlike those in non-allied nations — are more likely to develop unfavorable views of China. Additionally, public opinions of China and the United States tend to move in opposite directions as the great power competition intensifies because U.S. alliance relationships help strengthen a sense of shared identity during times of geopolitical crisis.

Shapers of Anti-China Sentiments: Policy Implications
 

  • Strengthening Alliances Amid U.S.-China Tensions: The United States should understand that alliance relationships increasingly matter as U.S.-China tensions intensify. Strengthening these ties can be particularly effective in managing escalating tensions with China.
  • Alliance Diplomacy vs. Traditional Value Diplomacy: During periods of geopolitical rivalry, U.S. alliances may have a greater impact than traditional diplomacy based on democratic values. In such times, alliances serve as critical frameworks for shared identity and mutual defense.
  • Understanding Anti-China Sentiment: U.S. allies should recognize that rising anti-China sentiments among citizens are closely related to broader geopolitical dynamics. While anti-Japan or anti-America sentiments in countries like South Korea and the Philippines were historically bilateral issues, today's anti-China views are more structural issues and unlikely to diminish unless U.S.-China relations improve.
  • China’s Need for a Shift in Strategy: China should consider the geopolitical factors contributing to rising anti-China sentiment in U.S.-allied nations. China’s public diplomacy efforts to strengthen its soft power through financial and non-financial measures may be ineffective when applied to U.S. allies. The Chinese government should therefore prioritize improving its relationship with the United States to mitigate anti-China sentiments in U.S. allies.
     

National Understandings of Race and Racism in Asia


On September 17, 2024, Postdoctoral Fellow Junki Nakahara shared findings from a SNAPL project that is part of another Lab research track, Nationalism and Racism, at a discussion titled Deconstructing Racism “Denial” in Asia, hosted by George Washington University’s Sigur Center for Asian Studies.

Nakahara’s study examines how nationalism and racism intersect to create exclusion and marginalization across Asia. By analyzing state reports from 16 Asian countries submitted to the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD), the research investigates how these official reports conceptualize race and racism, uncovering pervasive patterns of their denial — literal, interpretive, and ideological. Nakahara thus offers a comparative view of how these perspectives by Asian nations align with or deviate from global norms. Her analysis also illustrates how historical identities and dominant social, political, and religious values shape national attitudes toward race in Asia.

Following Nakahara’s presentation, discussants Hiromi Ishizawa, associate professor of sociology at George Washington University, and Erin Aeran Chung, the Charles D. Miller Professor of East Asian Politics and Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Department of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, provided insightful commentary. They emphasized the importance of studying race and racism in the Asia-Pacific region and their implications for marginalized communities. The event also sparked an engaging dialogue with the audience, addressing how racism in Asia remains a “blind spot” overlooked in policy, media, and public discourse.

See the coverage of the event in George Washington’s student newspaper >

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U.S. and China flags on Constitution Avenue, Washington, DC, with the Capitol building in the background.
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Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab Receives Grants to Advance Policy Engagement and Research Collaboration

New grants to inform U.S. Asia policy and fuel cross-disciplinary research on Asia’s role in the global system of the 21st century.
Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab Receives Grants to Advance Policy Engagement and Research Collaboration
Chris Buckley delivers remarks at the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award.
News

Shorenstein Journalism Award Winner Chris Buckley Considers How Historical Memory Determines China’s Present

In the era of Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party has reasserted control over the recollection and retelling of the past as vital sources for shaping Chinese national identity and global power projection, says Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The New York Times and the recipient of the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award.
Shorenstein Journalism Award Winner Chris Buckley Considers How Historical Memory Determines China’s Present
Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond
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Walking Out: New Book Unravels the Shift in America's Trade Policy and Its Global Consequences

A new book by APARC Visiting Scholar Michael Beeman offers a timely analysis of the shift in United States' foreign trade policy, examines its recent choices to “walk out” on the principles that had defined the global trade system it had created, and offers recommendations for a redefined and more productive trade policy strategy.
Walking Out: New Book Unravels the Shift in America's Trade Policy and Its Global Consequences
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Gi-Wook Shin, Evan Medeiros, and Xinru Ma in conversation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
(From left): Gi-Wook Shin, Evan Medeiros, and Xinru Ma in conversation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 16, 2024.
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Lab members recently shared data-driven insights into U.S.-China tensions, public attitudes toward China, and racial dynamics in Asia, urging policy and academic communities in Washington, D.C. to rethink the Cold War analogy applied to China and views of race and racism in Asian nations.

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Flyer for the panel "The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections: High Stakes for Asia" with speaker headshots.

The November 2024 U.S. presidential election is projected to have profound implications for the world. In the Asia-Pacific region, the outcomes and subsequent policy priorities could significantly change global alliances and the region’s geopolitical and economic landscape. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer substantially different approaches to bilateral and multilateral cooperation that would have divergent impacts on trade relations, security partnerships, and diplomatic ties with Washington at a time in which U.S.-Asia engagement remains crucial for regional security, economic development, humanitarian assistance, technological innovation, and climate action.

Join a panel of experts on democracy, international relations, human rights, trade, and development to explore the potential opportunities and risks the next U.S. administration’s policies may pose for the Asia-Pacific and how stakeholders in the region look at their future with the United States. 

This event is part of APARC's Contemporary Asia Seminar Series, which hosts professionals in public and foreign policy, journalism, and academia who share their perspectives on pressing issues facing Asia today.

Panelists:

Headshot for Frank Fukuyama

Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). He is also Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and a professor (by courtesy) of Political Science. Dr. Fukuyama has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man, has appeared in over twenty foreign editions. His book Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment, was published in 2018. His latest book, Liberalism and Its Discontents, was published in May 2022. 

Fukuyama received his B.A. from Cornell University in classics, and his Ph.D. from Harvard in Political Science. He was a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation and of the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. Department of State. From 1996-2000 he was Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the School of Public Policy at George Mason University, and from 2001-2010 he was Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.

Square portrait photo of Kiyoteru Tsutsui

Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at Shorenstein APARC, the Director of the Japan Program and Deputy Director at APARC, a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Professor of Sociology, all at Stanford University. Tsutsui received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Kyoto University and earned an additional master’s degree and Ph.D. from Stanford’s sociology department in 2002. Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political/comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. His most recent publication, Human Rights and the State: The Power of Ideas and the Realities of International Politics (Iwanami Shinsho, 2022), was awarded the 2022 Ishibashi Tanzan Award and the 44th Suntory Prize for Arts and Sciences.

Gita Wirjawan

Gita Wirjawan is a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Precourt Institute for Energy and formerly a visiting scholar at APARC. His public service has included positions as Indonesia’s minister of trade, chairman of its Investment Coordinating Board, and chair of a 159-nation WTO ministerial conference in 2012 that focused on easing global trade barriers.

As an investment banker, he has held key appointments at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, where he led many mergers, corporate restructuring, corporate financing, and strategic sales involving leading companies in Southeast Asia. Having established a successful investment business in Indonesia, the Ancora Group, he created the Ancora Foundation, which has endowed scholarships for Indonesians to attend high-ranked universities worldwide and has funded the training of teachers at hundreds of Indonesian kindergartens serving underprivileged children.

Gita hosts the educational podcast “Endgame” to promote Southeast Asia’s growth and prosperity. His degrees are from the Harvard Kennedy School (MPA), Baylor University (MBA), and the University of Texas at Austin (BSc). 

 

Moderator:

Headshot for Gi-Wook Shin

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, a professor of sociology, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. At Stanford, he has also served as director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center since 2005 and as founding director of the Korea Program since 2001. His research concentrates on nationalism, development, and international relations, focusing on Korea/Asia.

Shin is the author/editor of more than 25 books, including South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis: The Threats of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization; The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security; Global Talent: Foreign Labor as Social Capital in Korea; and One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India, will be published by Stanford University Press in 2025.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, environmental, and political challenges in Asia through interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. He also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC in May 2024.

Shin previously taught at the University of Iowa and the University of California, Los Angeles. He holds a BA from Yonsei University and an MA and PhD from the University of Washington.

Gi-Wook Shin
Gi-Wook Shin
Francis Fukuyama

Shorenstein APARC
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Sociology
Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Kiyo Tsutsui1_0.jpg PhD

Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), the director of APARC and of the Japan Program at APARC, co-director of the Southeast Asia Program at APARC, executive director of the Inter-University Center for Japanese Language Studies, co-director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and professor of sociology, all at Stanford University.

Prior to his appointment at Stanford in July 2020, Tsutsui was professor of sociology, director of the Center for Japanese Studies, and director of the Donia Human Rights Center at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political/comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. More specifically, he has conducted (1) cross-national quantitative analyses on how human rights ideas and instruments have expanded globally and impacted local politics and (2) qualitative case studies of the impact of global human rights on Japanese politics. His current projects examine (a) changing conceptions of nationhood and minority rights in national constitutions and in practice, (b) populism and the future of democracy, (c) experimental surveys on public understanding about human rights, (d) campus policies and practices around human rights, (e) global expansion of corporate social responsibility and its impact on corporate behavior, and (f) Japan’s public diplomacy and perceptions about Japan in the world.

His research on the globalization of human rights and its impact on local politics has appeared in American Sociological Review, American Journal of Sociology, Social Forces, Social Problems, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and other social science journals. His book publications include Rights Make Might: Global Human Rights and Minority Social Movements in Japan (Oxford University Press 2018), and two co-edited volumes Corporate Social Responsibility in a Globalizing World (with Alwyn Lim, Cambridge University Press 2015) and The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (with John Ciorciari, University of Michigan Press forthcoming). He has been a recipient of National Endowment for the Humanities Fellowship, National Science Foundation grants, the SSRC/CGP Abe Fellowship, Stanford Japan Studies Postdoctoral Fellowship, and other grants as well as awards from American Sociological Association sections on Global and Transnational Sociology (2010, 2013, 2019), Human Rights (2017, 2019), Asia and Asian America (2018, 2019), Collective Behavior and Social Movements (2018), and Political Sociology (2019). 

Tsutsui received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Kyoto University and earned an additional master’s degree and Ph.D. from Stanford’s sociology department in 2002.

Director, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC)
Director, Japan Program at Shorenstein APARC
Co-Director, Southeast Asia Program at Shorenstein APARC
Executive Director, Inter-University Center for Japanese Language Studies
Co-Director, Center for Human Rights and International Justice
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Kiyoteru Tsutsui
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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2022-24
Gita_Wirjawan.jpg

Gita Wirjawan joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2022-23 and 2023-2024 academic years. In the 2024-25 year, he is a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy. Wirjawan is the chairman and founder of Ancora Group and Ancora Foundation, as well as the host of the podcast "Endgame." While at APARC, he researched the directionality of nation-building in Southeast Asia and sustainability and sustainable development in the U.S. and Southeast Asia.

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Gita Wirjawan
Panel Discussions
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This is part of Global Research Workshop series: Developing an Interdisciplinary Research Platform Toward ‘Next Asia’ co-sponsored by Stanford Global Studies.

Drawing on alliance and identity politics literature, this study shows that as the U.S-China rivalry intensifies, citizens of U.S. allies--but not those in non-allies--are more likely to view China with increasingly unfavorable attitudes. This is because the growing bilateral tensions can amplify public perception that their national security and values shared with their allies are threatened by China. Moreover, because the U.S alliance relationships can be reinforced as a perceptual foundation of shared identity during times of geopolitical crisis, public views toward China and the U.S. tend to be conversely related as the competition grows. The study tests our propositions in the Asia-Pacific region, where the U.S. has several allies and its tensions with China are most acute, using two datasets--Gallup World Poll (2006-2022) and Asian Barometer Survey (Wave 3-5). Based on empirical findings, this study offers theoretical implications for research on foreign public opinion as well as policy suggestions for the U.S., its allies, and China.

Presenter:

portrait of Gidong Kim

Gidong Kim is 2023-2025 Korea Program Postdoctoral Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from University of Missouri, an M.A. and a B.A. in Political Science from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. He studies comparative political behavior and economy in East Asia, with particular focus on nationalism and identity politics, inequality and redistribution, and migration in South Korea and East Asia. His work is published or forthcoming in journals including Journal of East Asian Studies, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Asian Perspective, Korea Observer, and Social Science Quarterly

Discussant:

Portrait of Yusaku Horiuchi

Yusaku Horiuchi is a Professor of Government and Mitsui Professor of Japanese Studies at Dartmouth College. His research utilizes experimental designs and statistical methods to address diverse empirical questions in political science, particularly focusing on foreign/global public opinion, Japanese Politics, diversity, elections, and political methodology. He has published widely in top journals, including American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, and Science Advances, and authored two books. His research draws on data from Japan and other countries such as Australia, Israel, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. He holds an M.A. in international and development economics from Yale University and a Ph.D. in political science from MIT.

portrait of Paul Chang

Paul Chang is Senior Fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; and Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Association Senior Fellow at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Before joining Stanford, Chang was an associate professor of sociology at Harvard University. A sociologist by training, Chang's research on South Korean society has appeared in flagship disciplinary and area studies journals. He is the author of Protest Dialectics: State Repression and South Korea's Democracy Movement, 1970-1979 (Stanford University Press) and co-editor of South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (Routledge). His current work examines the diversification of family structures in South Korea.

Gidong Kim, Postdoctoral Fellow in Korea Program, Stanford University Presenter
Yusaku Horiuchi, Professor of Government and Mitsui Professor of Japanese Studies, Dartmouth College Discussant
Paul Chang, Senior Fellow at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Association Senior Fellow at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University Discussant
Workshops
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