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Cover of Issue 34(1) of Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, January 2022
This study aims to provide evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted chronic disease care in diverse settings across Asia. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess the health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam using standardized questionnaires.

Overall, 5672 participants with chronic conditions were recruited from 5 countries. The mean age of the participants ranged from 55.9 to 69.3 years. A worsened economic status during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by 19% to 59% of the study participants. Increased difficulty in accessing care was reported by 8% to 24% of participants, except Vietnam: 1.6%. The worsening of diabetes symptoms was reported by 5.6% to 14.6% of participants, except Vietnam: 3%. In multivariable regression analyses, increasing age, female participants, and worsened economic status were suggestive of increased difficulty in access to care, but these associations mostly did not reach statistical significance. In India and China, rural residence, worsened economic status and self-reported hypertension were statistically significantly associated with increased difficulty in access to care or worsening of diabetes symptoms.

These findings suggest that the pandemic disproportionately affected marginalized and rural populations in Asia, negatively affecting population health beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19.

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Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health
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Karen Eggleston
Shorenstein APARC Encina Hall E301 Stanford University
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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2021-2022
huijun_cynthia_chen.jpeg Ph.D

Dr. Cynthia Chen joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as visiting scholar with the Asia Health Policy Program during the 2022 winter and spring quarters. She is an Assistant Professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS). Her current research focuses on the well-being and older adults, healthcare financing, and the economics of ageing. She is interested in how demographic, economic and social changes can affect the burden of care, financing needs and optimal resource allocation in the future. Her research has been supported by the Singapore’s Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education, the US National Institutes of Aging, and the Thai Health Promotion Foundation among others. To date, she has published more than 45 internationally peer-reviewed journals on societal ageing, the burden of chronic diseases, and cost-effectiveness research. Dr. Chen obtained her Ph.D. in Public Health, Masters and BSc in Statistics from NUS.

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China has been making efforts to establish a universal health care coverage system through multiple social health insurance schemes. As these insurance schemes cover different populations with different financing and reimbursement levels, large disparities remain in health care access and health outcomes among people covered. The government has launched an urban-rural integration policy for social health insurance to reduce disparities in access and health outcomes. We adopt a difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach to estimate the effects of this integration policy on health care utilization, financial risk protection, and health status, using nationally representative Chinese household survey data.

The results show that the integration policy has significantly improved the financial risk protection and self-assessed health of rural residents in China, which could be attributed to a decline in out-of-pocket payment. The low-income rural residents benefit most from this policy. There is no evidence that it has pronounced effects among urban residents. Greater efforts to increase reimbursement rates and to expand beneficiary populations could help to mitigate remaining urban-rural disparities. The findings in this study would contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of health insurance expansion in low- and middle-income countries.

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Impact on Health Care Utilization, Financial Risk Protection, and Health Status
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Applied Economics
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Karen Eggleston
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Noa Ronkin
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While the coronavirus pandemic has captured the world’s attention, non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) such as hypertension, heart diseases, and diabetes continue to be the leading cause of mortality worldwide, accounting for about two-thirds of deaths globally. Their financial and social burden is also immense, as individuals with chronic diseases face high medical spending, limited ability to work, and financial insecurity. Primary health care (PHC) is a crucial avenue for managing and preventing chronic diseases, yet many health systems, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), lack robust primary health care settings. How can policymakers improve PHC to reduce illness and death from chronic diseases?

There is little rigorous evidence from LMICs about the effectiveness of programs seeking to improve the capacity of PHC for controlling chronic disease. Now a new study, published by the Journal of Health Economics, helps fill in this gap. It offers empirical evidence on China’s efforts to promote PHC management, showing that better PHC management of chronic diseases in rural areas can reduce spending while contributing to better health. We sat down with APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, one of the study co-authors, to discuss the research and its implications beyond China. Watch:

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Challenges for Primary Health Care Services

China, a large and rapidly developing middle-income country with a hospital-based service delivery system for its aging population, makes a suitable case study of efforts to promote PHC management. Over the past several decades, PHC use in China has significantly decreased relative to hospital-based care. This trend is a natural consequence of the country’s unprecedented increases in living standards and improvements in financial risk protection, which increase patients’ demand for quality care and spur self-referral to providers with higher-perceived quality like hospital outpatient departments.

The performance differences between PHC and hospital-based care are especially stark in China’s rural areas, where management of chronic diseases relies heavily on grassroots physicians, who have limited medical education and training. That is why Eggleston and her colleagues set out to provide new empirical evidence about the effectiveness of a program that promotes PHC management of hypertension and diabetes for rural Chinese. Part of the National Basic Public Health Service Program for rural Chinese, it financially rewards PHC grassroots physicians for managing residents with chronic diseases.

Collaborative Research in the Era of Great Power Competition

Eggleston’s co-authors include her colleagues at the Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Zhejiang CDC). Their study is the culmination of Eggleston’s multiyear collaborative research project with the Zhejiang CDC team, "Addressing Health Disparities in China," which looks to Tongxiang county in Zhejiang as a case study of China's responses to healthcare inequalities and population aging challenges in rural and urban areas. The project also involved two Stanford doctoral students who worked with Eggleston.

The team worked together to develop the quantitative analysis even during a time of sometimes-tense bilateral relations. “We found it very important to be able to communicate directly and collaborate on an important question not only for rural China but for many other parts of the world,” says Eggleston.
Karen Eggleston speaking to staff at Zhejiang Provincial CDC, China
Eggleston with her colleagues at the Zhejiang CDC during a field visit in 2018.

“This kind of collaboration, where we utilize the data that's available to answer an important question while respecting the privacy of the individuals and hopefully delivering benefits to them through more effective or affordable programs in the future perhaps is a promising model for researchers here and elsewhere to undertake,” she notes.

Disentangling the Effect of Primary Health Care Management

To study the program’s effectiveness, the researchers assembled a unique dataset linking individual-level administrative and health information between 2011 and 2015 for rural Chinese diagnosed with hypertension or diabetes in Tongxiang, a mostly rural county of Zhejiang province in southeast China. Collected by the Tongxiang CDC and Zhejiang CDC, the compiled database links basic demographic information, health insurance claims, PHC service logs, and health check-up records — four sets of data that are rarely linked and analyzed in combination in China healthcare research.

Focusing on neighboring border-straddling villages allows us to use only variation in PHC management within pairs of neighboring villages to identify the effect.
Karen Eggleston

Targeting the program’s effects on healthcare utilization, spending, and health outcomes, Eggleston and her colleagues compare residents in neighboring villages that straddle township boundaries. These residents are similar in their individual and environmental characteristics that shape health care use but are subject to different PHC management practices. This “border sampling” allows the researchers to disentangle the effects of PHC management from other underlying spatial differences that impact health care utilization. For each township, the researchers use a management intensity index that reflects the cumulative efforts of PHC physicians to screen their communities and keep patients within the PHC management programs for controlling hypertension and diabetes. Each township’s experience with PHC management over the 5-year study period is thus a case study for rural China.

Net Value in Chronic Disease Management

The results are encouraging for China's investment in primary care management of chronic diseases. Eggleston and her colleagues find that patients residing in a village within a township with more intensive PHC management had a relative increase in PHC visits, fewer specialist visits, fewer hospital admissions, and lower spending compared to neighbors with less intensive management. They also tend to have better medication adherence and better health outcomes as measured by blood pressure control.

If we can gradually scale up these kinds of effective programs at primary care then we can build more resilient, cost-effective, affordable health care systems for populations in many different settings.
Karen Eggleston

The results suggest that PHC chronic disease management in rural China improves net value in multiple ways — increasing PHC utilization, reducing avoidable hospitalizations, decreasing medical spending, and improving intermediate- and long-run health outcomes — all while leveraging existing resources rather than restricting care.

The findings also help inform investments in primary health care in LMICs. They highlight the latent potential of frontline healthcare workers in such settings to be more productive and show that financially rewarding these grassroots workers for managing residents with chronic diseases helps improve health outcomes. Moreover, they offer empirical evidence that supports the effectiveness of chronic disease management programs as part of broader regional initiatives to address population health.

Read the study by Eggleston et al

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In China, Better Financial Coverage Increases Health Care Access and Utilization

Research evidence from China’s Tongxiang county by Karen Eggleston and colleagues indicates that enhanced financial coverage for catastrophic medical expenditures increased health care access and expenditures among resident insurance beneficiaries while decreasing out-of-pocket spending as a portion of total spending.
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A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations

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 A woman at a desk in a village medical clinic in China.
A village medical clinic in China. | Marie Anna Lee, University of the Pacific, CC BY-NC-ND
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Empirical evidence by Karen Eggleston and colleagues suggests that better primary health care management of chronic disease in rural China can reduce spending while contributing to better health.

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Health systems globally face increasing morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases, yet many — especially in low- and middle-income countries — lack strong chronic disease management in primary health care (PHC). We provide evidence on China’s efforts to promote PHC management using unique five-year panel data in a rural county, including health care utilization from medical claims and health outcomes from biomarkers. Utilizing plausibly exogenous variation in management intensity generated by administrative and geographic boundaries, we compare hypertension/diabetes patients in villages within two kilometers distance but managed by different townships. Results show that, compared to patients in townships with median management intensity, patients in high-intensity townships have 4.8% more PHC visits, 5.2% fewer specialist visits, 11.7% fewer inpatient admissions, and 3.6% lower medical spending. They also tend to have better medication adherence and better control of blood pressure. The resource savings from avoided inpatient admissions substantially outweigh the costs of the program. 

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Journal of Health Economics
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Karen Eggleston
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Noa Ronkin
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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for four types of fellowship in contemporary Asia studies for the 2022-23 academic year.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on contemporary Japan, contemporary Asia broadly defined, health or healthcare policy in the Asia-Pacific region, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each fellowship and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2022. The application deadline is January 3, 2022.
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2022. The application deadline is January 3, 2022.
 

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The Center offers fellowships for postdoctoral scholars specializing in contemporary Asia, Japan, and Asia health policy and for experts on Southeast Asia.

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Noa Ronkin
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Around the world, societies are aging at a rapid pace. The demographic transition and the challenges surrounding elderly care are defining issues of our time. Aging populations strain public finances and existing models of social support, affect economic growth, and change disease patterns and prevalence. Many countries, therefore, contemplate policy changes to their retirement, pensions, and health care systems. China, which faces a fast-growing trend of aging cohorts, is no exception.

To alleviate the pressure of elderly care on public finances, the Chinese government has been considering raising retirement ages and corresponding changes in social health insurance and pension policy. A new study now helps evaluate such retirement reforms and provides evidence to inform policy in China and elsewhere by probing the effects of retirement on health care utilization.


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The study’s co-authors, including Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, leverage administrative data from medical claims for over 80,000 insured adults in a megacity in eastern China to explore the effect of retirement on outpatient and inpatient care utilization. In this case, urban employee insurance beneficiaries receive a reduced patient cost-sharing rate upon retirement. By focusing on a relatively well-insured population with comprehensive administrative data on insurance plan design and overall resource use at retirement, the study provides new evidence about mechanisms such as the reduced out-of-pocket price of health care, the opportunity cost of time, and the interaction of these demand-side factors with supply-side incentives. Eggleston and her colleagues report on their findings in the journal Health Economics.

Our study reveals that increased utilization at retirement primarily comes in the form of outpatient services.

In this relatively well-insured population, annual health care utilization significantly increases primarily because of more intensive use of outpatient care at retirement. This increase in outpatient care stems from a decline in the patient cost-sharing rate, the reduced time constraints upon retirement, and the interaction of these factors with supply-side incentives such as prescribing antibiotics. There is no evidence of change in inpatient care at retirement.

The economics of medical expenditure growth and its interaction with population aging is of considerable policy importance for countries in all income groups. “Our findings may provide useful evidence as one consideration for policymakers in other cities in China and elsewhere looking to increase insurance benefits and control medical spending for burgeoning elderly populations.

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The study’s co-authors, including Karen Eggleston, find that health care expenditures among Chinese covered by relatively generous health insurance significantly increase at retirement, primarily due to an increase in the number of outpatient visits.

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Previous studies, mostly analyzing data from high-income economies, present mixed evidence on the relationship between retirement and healthcare utilization. This study leverages administrative data for over 80,000 urban Chinese workers to explore the effect of retirement on outpatient and inpatient care utilization using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The analyses of medical claims from a large city in China complement and extend the current literature by providing evidence of potential mechanisms underlying increased short-run utilization. In this relatively well-insured population, annual total healthcare expenditures significantly increase primarily because of more intensive use of outpatient care at retirement, especially at the right tail of the distribution of outpatient visits. This increase in outpatient care appears to stem from a decline in the patient cost-sharing rate and the reduced opportunity cost of time upon retirement, interacting with supplier-induced demand, not from any sudden impact on health. We do not find evidence of change in inpatient care at retirement. The results hold for both females and males and are robust to a number of sensitivity analyses.

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Health Economics
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Karen Eggleston
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India’s COVID-19 lockdown is widely believed to have disrupted critical health services, but its effect on non-COVID health outcomes is largely unknown. Comparing mortality trends among dialysis patients in the eight months around the lockdown with the previous year, we document a 64% increase in mortality between March and May 2020 and an estimated 22-25% total excess mortality through July 2020. The mortality increase is greater among females and disadvantaged groups. Barriers to transportation and disruptions in hospital services appear to be the main drivers of increased morbidity and mortality. The results highlight the unintended consequences of the lockdown on critical and life-saving non-COVID health services that must be taken into account in the implementation of future policy efforts to control the spread of pandemics.
 

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Asia Health Policy Program Working Paper Series working paper #60
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Radhika Jain
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Introduction

Governments around the world suspended immunization outreach to control COVID-19 spread. Many have since resumed services with an emphasis on catch-up vaccinations. This paper evaluated immunization disruptions during India’s March-May 2020 lockdown and the extent to which subsequent catch-up efforts reversed them in Rajasthan, India.
 

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, we conducted phone surveys to collect immunization details for 2,144 children that turned one-year-old between January and October 2020. We used logistic regressions to compare differences in immunization timeliness and completed first-year immunization status among children that were due immunizations just before (unexposed), during (heavily exposed), and after (post-exposure) the lockdown.
 

Results

Relative to unexposed children, heavily exposed children were significantly less likely to be immunized at or before 9 months (OR 0.550; 95% CI 0.367–0.824; p = 0.004), but more likely to be immunized at 10–12 months (OR 1.761; 95% CI 1.196–2.591; p = 0.004). They were also less likely to have completed their key first-year immunizations (OR 0.624; 95% CI 0.478–0.816; p = 0.001) by the time of the survey. In contrast, post-exposure children showed no difference in timeliness or completed first-year immunizations relative to unexposed children, despite their younger age. First-year immunization coverage among heavily exposed children decreased by 6.9 pp to 10.4 pp (9.7% to 14.0%). Declines in immunization coverage were larger among children in households that were poorer, less educated, lower caste, and residing in COVID red zones, although subgroup comparisons were not statistically significant.
 

Conclusion

Disruptions to immunization services resulted in children missing immunization during the lockdown, but catch-up efforts after it was eased ensured many children were reached at later ages. Nevertheless, catch-up was incomplete and children due for their immunizations during the lockdown remained less likely to be fully immunized 4–5 months after it lifted, even as younger cohorts due for immunizations in June or later returned to pre-lockdown schedules.

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Journal Articles
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A retrospective observational study
Journal Publisher
Vaccine
Authors
Radhika Jain
Number
Issue 31
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