This seminar is part of the Shorenstein Forum Cross-Strait Seminar Series. Dr. Wu Xinbo is currently a professor at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University, and the Vice-President, Shanghai Institute of American Studies. He teaches China-U.S. relations and writes widely about China?s foreign policy, Sino-American relations and Asia-Pacific issues. Professor Wu is the author of Dollar Diplomacy and Major Powers in China, 1909?1913 (Fudan University Press, 1997) and has published numerous articles and book chapters in China, the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Singapore, and India. He is also a frequent contributor to Chinese and international newspapers. Born in 1966 in Anhui Province, East China, Wu Xinbo entered Fudan University in 1982 as an undergraduate student and received his B.A. in history in 1986. In 1992, he got his Ph.D. in international relations from Fudan University. In the same year, he joined the Center for American Studies, Fudan University. In 1994, he spent one year at the George Washington University as a visiting scholar. In fall 1997, he was a visiting fellow at the Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University and the Henry Stimson Center in Washington DC. From January to August 2000, he was a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

North Korea claims to have produced enough plutonium to build half a dozen nuclear bombs. U.S. intelligence indicates North Korea may indeed possess one or two nuclear weapons. The North Korean government has overtly threatened to use their arsenal against the United States. How credible is the threat? Is North Korea becoming the next Iraq? The U.S., China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea are pushing for another six-party talk. Can diplomacy, international aid, and security guarantees curb North Korea's nuclear proliferation? Can we negotiate with a regime devoid of a rule of law? What are our other options?

Panel discussion moderated by Warren Christopher, Professor in the Practice of International Law and Diplomacy, Stanford Law School, and including:

A panel discussion featuring:

• Bernard S. Black, JD '82
• George E. Osborne, Professor of Law and Director of the LLM Program in Corporate Governance and Practice, Stanford Law School
• Mi-Hyung Kim, JD '89 General Counsel and Executive Vice President , Kumho Business Group

Potentially the most divisive issue to be addressed at the upcoming summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Bali on October 7-8, 2003 concerns the membership of Burma. Traditionally ASEAN has been regarded as among the most successful regional institutions anywhere. Since its founding in 1967, ASEAN member states have never waged war against each other. Southeast Asia has become an enduringly peaceful security community. This achievement reflects ASEAN's commitment to the norm of national sovereignty, its refusal to violate that norm by interfering in a fellow member's domestic affairs, and its consensual style of diplomacy--the confrontation-shunning "ASEAN Way." But these facilitators of regional peace have at the same time reinforced the more or less authoritarian character of the Association's ten member regimes. Nowhere in Southeast Asia is this anomaly of an "illiberal peace" more acute than in the crisis now facing ASEAN over the lack of democracy in Burma. Recently the junta in Rangoon arrested and imprisoned the leader of the Burmese opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi. The Burmese regime was able to crack down partly because of ASEAN's adherence to the principle of sovereignty and its reluctance to allow criticism of one member state by other member states. Will ASEAN's faith in sovereignty survive? Or will the Burmese dilemma force ASEAN's leaders at the Bali summit to rethink the very meaning of the Association in a globalizing and democratizing world? Erik Kuhonta recently completed his dissertation on the politics of equitable development in Malaysia and Thailand. He specializes on the comparative and international politics of developing countries with a focus on Southeast Asia. A citizen of the Philippines, he was born in Sri Lanka, grew up in Italy, and now considers Thailand his home. Kuhonta holds a B.A. magna cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. from Princeton University.

How is the American-led war in Iraq affecting Asian countries and their relations with the United States? Is a clash of civilizations underway? Will Islamist rage in Southeast Asia spawn terrorist attacks on Americans there? Will Islamist parties in Indonesia be able to ride this wave of anger into power in the elections to be held in April 2004? Will the regime in North Korea take advantage of American preoccupations in Iraq and Afghanistan to escalate tensions in Northeast Asia? How will the economies of Southeast and Northeast Asia be affected by the conflict in Iraq? Will Washington's priority on ousting Saddam Hussein undermine its effort to stabilize Afghanistan? And what will the repercussions in Asia be if, against the expectation of many observers, the Iraq war turns out to be short and the seeds of Iraqi democracy are successfully sown?

C. Richard D'Amato is the vice chairman of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, a commission established by Congress to review the national security implications of U.S. trade relations with China. Formerly a delegate to the General Assembly of the State of Maryland, he is the president of a consulting firm that represents American corporations on strategic planning and international trade matters. He is also a retired captain in the United States Navy Reserve, a position that brought him a variety of assignments, including attache duty at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, on proliferation issues and military-to-military initiatives in March 1997; service in the Battle Group Command Staff of the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea during Operation Desert Shield; serving as an operations officer directing air drops into Bosnia and Sarajevo; and service on the planning staff of the newly created Asia-Pacific Center, which is a conference and study center under the commander of U.S. Forces for the Pacific, in Honolulu, Hawaii. Recently, Mr. D'Amato served as a member of the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission, a congressionally created commission charged with studying the nature, causes and consequences of the United States merchandise trade and current account deficits.

For ten years, beginning in 1988, Mr. D'Amato was the Democratic counsel for the Committee on Appropriations of the United States Senate. He was responsible for coordinating and managing the annual appropriations bills and other legislation on policy and funding of U.S. international operations and programs, including trade and defense and the full range of foreign activities of the U.S. government.

Mr. D'Amato has also served as senior foreign policy counsel for Senator Robert C. Byrd. In this capacity, Mr. D'Amato drafted the resolution that set Senate standards for international global climate change treaty negotiations. He also worked on a wide array of issues affecting U.S. international economic and political interests, including U.S.-Japan auto trade talks; World Trade Organization review legislation; U.S. involvement and funding of operations in Bosnia, Somalia, and Rwanda; and burden-sharing agreements during the Gulf War. Between 1980 and 1987, Mr. D'Amato served as the policy director for the Majority Leader, Senator Robert C. Byrd, for political, economic, and security policies. In this position, Mr. D'Amato supervised all work on a number of important legislative initiatives, including the 1988 Omnibus Trade Bill and the "Super 301" provision. Mr. D'Amato also wrote key legislation dealing with U.S.-Japan economic relations. During his career on Capitol Hill, Mr. D'Amato also served as the co-director of the Senate Arms Control Observer Group.

Mr. D'Amato began his career first as the legislative director for Congressman James Jeffords (R-VT) between 1975 and 1978, and beginning in 1978, as the legislative assistant and then chief of staff for Senator Abraham Ribicoff (D-CT) until 1980.

Mr. D'Amato has been very active in other aspects of public service, including an appointment as an assistant professor of government for the United States Naval Academy between 1968 and 1971, during which he was assistant varsity basketball coach and the sailing coach. He was responsible for the creation of an annual scholarship with the YWCA for college bound African American women and was the chairman of a local charitable hunger relief action organization in 1996, 1997, and 1998, which was a part of the nationwide "Share Our Strength" organization, the most successful hunger relief effort in the United States. In addition, he is active in the boating community in Annapolis, where he and his wife, Dorothy, have lived for thirty years.

Mr. D'Amato received his B.A. from Cornell University in 1964, graduating cum laude in government. He serves now on the Board of Trustees' Council for Cornell University. Mr. D'Amato received his M.A. and M.A.L.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Boston in 1967, and received his J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center in 1980.

Over the last two years in Southeast Asia, acts of terror done in the name of Islam have divided analysts into two broad camps. Academic specialists on Islam in Southeast Asia have tended to emphasize the moderation of the vast majority of Muslims in the region and the local roots of so-called jihadist violence there. While not denying the moderation of most Muslims, Western journalists and officials have relied more on intelligence reports and detainee confessions to situate Southeast Asian jihadists within a global terrorist network organized and inspired by Al Qaeda. Compared with Western journalists and officials, scholars have also tended to portray Islam as a basically tolerant religion and to seek nonreligious explanations and motivations for seemingly Islamist violence. If the scholars have had faith in explanatory contexts--distinctively local, historical, cultural, socioeconomic, and political--their counterparts in media and policy circles have been more inclined to showcase conspiratorial texts: interrogation transcripts, recordings of clandestine conversations, and the selectively Koranic rhetoric of militant Islamists urging global jihad. Which of these contrasting perspectives is superior, analytically and as a basis for counter-terror policy? Are the perpetrators of apparently Islamist terror in Southeast Asia thinking and acting locally? Or globally? Is there a demonstrably Al Qaeda network in the region? If so, what sort of a structure is it? How does it operate? Can a "war" against it succeed? If not, what might be a better approach? Zachary Abuza is an assistant professor of political science and international relations at Simmons College. His most recent book is Renovating Politics in Contemporary Vietnam (2001). Foreign-affairs journals that have published his work include Asian Survey and Contemporary Southeast Asia. He has spoken on Southeast Asian subjects before Congress, at the State Department, on Jim Lehrer's "NewsHour," and in the pages of the Wall Street Journal and Time, among other media. He received his Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in 1998. In 1995-96 he was a visiting researcher at the Institute of International Relations in Hanoi.

Following the success of the first conference held in January 2002, the Asia/Pacific Research Center and the US Army War College plan to hold a second conference in January 2003. Its theme is "The Prospects for Peace in South Asia." The participants will address several topics: the role of religion in the politics of the region (primarily in Kashmir, but also in Indian and Pakistani politics), the political role of the Pakistani army, and the new challenges that nuclear weapons and the global war on terrorism have introduced. Possible lessons for the United States in trying to prevent war in South Asia as well as furthering its aims in the war on terrorism will be discussed. The conference speakers will provide an understanding of Kashmir, the role of religion in South Asian politics, local culture and attitudes, US military perspectives on South Asia and the situations and politics in India and Pakistan.

When Shorenstein APARC's 2002 South Asia conference was being planned at Shorenstein APARC, the events of September 11, 2001 had not taken place. To Americans, September 11 is mostly associated with the war against terrorism. However, the impact of 9-11 on longstanding political relations between India and Pakistan is less understood. Without such an understanding, it is difficult to explain why India and Pakistan have twice almost gone to war in the past months due to acts of terrorism linked to September 11.

Kashmir is the main locus of the two countries' dispute. There is much history on why disagreements over Kashmir have created political problems: they began with the handing over of Kashmir to India in 1947 and have continued with rigged elections, poor governance, military occupation, and indigenous and Pakistani-supported militancy, up to the present day.

The risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan arising from the Kashmir dispute remains high. Local elections in both Pakistan and Kashmir over the next few months might prevent war till then, while affecting the dynamics of the future. The United States is keenly concerned with the possibility of war and has been actively engaged in diplomacy, with more senior American officials visiting South Asia in 2002 than at any time in the past.

Indian and Pakistani politics have also taken new turns. In India, the ruling NDA is dominated by the BJP, a party with past links to militant Hinduism. India is constitutionally secular and Muslims have played an important political role, though more as a vote-bank (comprising 14 percent of the population) and less, particularly in recent times, as influential decision-makers. This influence may be set to decline further. Economic uncertainties and the polarization of religious communities in some areas (after sectarian riots) have led the BJP to believe that a return to its aggressive roots might be politically successful. This leads to a need for understanding of how India's future will be affected by its great religions, Hinduism and Islam.

In Pakistan, recent political developments have concentrated power almost entirely in the hands of President Musharraf, a situation that may persist after its upcoming elections. This lack of institutionalization of political processes and power poses new risks to the security environment in the subcontinent.

As 39th President of the United States, Jimmy Carter's significant foreign-policy accomplishments included the Panama Canal treaties; the strategic arms limitation treaty (SALT II) signed with Soviet president Leonid Brezhnev; the Camp David Accords between Israeli premier Menachem Begin and Egyptian president Anwar el-Sadat; and the establishment of full diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China.

A graduate of the United States Naval Academy, Mr. Carter's naval career took him to many parts of the world, including Asia. He rose to the rank of lieutenant, working under Admiral Hyman Rickover in the nuclear submarine program. President Carter's rise to political prominence began when he chaired the Sumter County School Board in his native Georgia. After serving as the first president of the Georgia Planning Association he was elected to the State Senate in 1962, followed by his election as state governor in 1971. He announced his candidacy for the United States presidency in 1974 and won the general election in 1976, thereby completing the most rapid ascent in modern American politics.

In 1982 Mr. Carter became University Distinguished Professor at Emory University in Atlanta. In partnership with the university he also founded The Carter Center, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization actively promoting human rights, international conflict resolution, agriculture advancements in the developing world, and the prevention of disease. President Carter is the author of sixteen books, many now in revised editions, including most recently Talking Peace: A Vision for the Next Generation. President and Mrs. Carter are also regular volunteers for Habitat for Humanity, earning national recognition for an organization dedicated to building affordable housing for the needy.

The Oksenberg Lectures honor the memory of Professor Michel Oksenberg, who was a senior fellow at the Institute for International Studies. A pioneer in the field of Chinese politics, Mike was an important force in shaping American attitudes toward China, and was consistently outspoken about the need for the United States to be more thoughtful and informed in its engagement of Asia.

Professor Oksenberg was a cherished colleague here at the Asia/Pacific Research Center, and a beloved mentor to generations of China scholars. As a tribute to his legacy, the Shorenstein Forum has established The Oksenberg Lectures, to be delivered annually by a distinguished practitioner of America's affairs with Asia.

High-level talks between the United States and North Korea began under the previous Bush administration, and continued throughout the 1990s. These negotiations succeeded in mothballing the North's nuclear reactor and, with immense help from President Kim Dae-Jung's "sunshine policy," were on the brink of another major breakthrough a year ago. Although little diplomacy movement has occurred since the new Bush administration took office, and much has changed elsewhere in the world since the terrorist attacks on September 11th, conditions remain conducive to a rapprochement between Washington and Pyongyang, and a final, formal end to the Korean War. This program is free and open to the public. Lunch will be provided for those who **RSVP before noon on Wednesday, January 16th** to Okky Choi. Tel: (650) 724-8271 or Email: okkychoi@stanford.edu