Stanford University

Business

Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship

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Many observers, and many investors, believe that young people are especially likely to produce the most successful new firms. Integrating administrative data on​ firms, workers, and owners, we study startups systematically in the U.S. and find​ that successfull entrepreneurs are middle-aged, not young. The mean age at​ founding for the 1-in-1,000 fastest growing new ventures is 45.0. The findings are​ similar when considering high-technology sectors, entrepreneurial hubs, and​ successful firm exits. Prior experience in the specific industry predicts much greater​ rates of entrepreneurial success. These findings strongly reject common hypotheses​ that emphasize youth as a key trait of successful entrepreneurs.

Speaker:

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Javier Miranda, Principal Economist, Economy-Wide Statistics Division, US Census Bureau

Bio:

Javier Miranda is Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau where he began his career in 1998. Javier received his Ph.D. in Economics from American University in 2004. Previous to joining the Census Javier was a research consultant at the World Bank and the Urban Institute. Javier has published papers in the areas of industrial organization, technological change, job creation, entrepreneurship and firm financing. Among his publications are articles in the American Economic Review, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Journal Macroeconomics, Review of Economic and Statistics, IMF Review, World Bank Economic Review, Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, and multiple books and chapters.  Javier received the Director's Award for Innovation (2007) and the U.S. Department of Commerce Bronze Medal (2011). His contributions to data infrastructure are notable. Javier Miranda is responsible for the development of the Longitudinal Business Database and the Business Dynamics Statistics and is the Synthetic Longitudinal Business Database v3. Together with the USPTO Javier has led the development the Business Dynamics Statistics of Innovative Firms a longitudinal database of firms, patents, and inventors. Javier Miranda is also President of the Board of SEM an adult education and job readiness program designed to address the root causes of poverty, illiteracy, and violence in Washington DC.

Advisory on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

In accordance with university guidelines, if you (or a spouse/housemate) have returned from travel to mainland China or South Korea in the last 14 days, we ask that you DO NOT come to campus until 14 days have passed since your return date and you remain symptom-free. For more information and updates, please refer to the Stanford Environmental Health & Safety website: https://ehs.stanford.edu/news/novel-coronavirus-covid-19.

 

 

Javier Miranda, Principal Economist, Economy-Wide Statistics Division, US Census Bureau
Seminars
Japan Colloquium Series

CANCELED: Data-intensive Innovation and the State: Evidence from Facial Recognition AI Firms in China

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IMPORTANT EVENT UPDATE: 

In keeping with Stanford University's March 3 message to the campus community on COVID-19 and current recommendations of the CDC, the Asia-Pacific Research Center is electing to postpone this event until further notice. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, and appreciate your understanding and cooperation as we do our best to keep our community healthy and well. 

 

Data-intensive technologies such as AI may reshape the modern world. We propose that two features of data interact to shape innovation in data-intensive economies: first, states are key collectors and repositories of data; second, data is a non-rival input in innovation. We document the importance of state-collected data for innovation using comprehensive data on Chinese facial recognition AI firms and government contracts. Firms produce more commercial software and patents, particularly data-intensive ones, after receiving government public security contracts. Moreover, effects are largest when contracts provide more data. We then build a directed technical change model to study the state's role in three applications: autocracies demanding AI for surveillance purposes, data-driven industrial policy, and data regulation due to privacy concerns. When the degree of non-rivalry is as strong as our empirical evidence suggests, the state's collection and processing of data can shape the direction of innovation and growth of data-intensive economies.

Portrait of David Yang
David Yang’s research focuses on political economy, behavioral and experimental economics, economic history, and cultural economics. In particular, David studies the forces of stability and forces of changes in authoritarian regimes, drawing lessons from historical and contemporary China. David received a B.A. in Statistics and B.S. in Business Administration from University of California at Berkeley, and PhD in Economics from Stanford. David is currently a Prize Fellow in Economics, History, and Politics at Harvard and a Postdoctoral Fellow at J-PAL at MIT. He also joined Harvard’s Economics Department as an Assistant Professor as of 2020.

David Yang Prize Fellow in Economics, History, and Politics; Department of Economics, Harvard University
Seminars

Ming Zeng

Shorenstein APARC Stanford University Encina Hall E301 Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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Visiting Scholar at APARC
Ph.D.

Ming Zeng joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as visiting scholar for the 2020 calendar year from Alibaba Group, where he serves as chairman of the Academic Council and formerly as Chief Strategy Officer, and the Hupan School of Entrepreneurship, where he serves as founding Dean and Professor of Strategy. At APARC, he will be conducting research on innovation and entrepreneurship in the Asia-Pacific, specifically on the globalization of Chinese digital companies across Asia.  Prior to coming to APARC, Zeng was a visiting scholar at the Stanford King Center on Global Development at SIEPR.

China's Economic Development: A Forty Year Perspective

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WE HAVE REACHED VENUE CAPACITY AND ARE NO LONGER ACCEPTING RSVPS

 

Portrait of Nicholas Lardy
China has grown faster for longer than any country in recorded history.  Is it market-oriented reform, state industrial policy, or some sophisticated blend of the two that explains this success?  In this talk, Dr. Nicholas Lardy will also further examine what might explain China’s slowdown of recent years.  Is China falling into the frequently fatal middle-income trap?  Or have domestic policy choices led to the slowdown?  Have trade frictions with the United States also contributed to China’s slowing growth?  In addition, what should U.S. policy stance be towards China?  Should the United States continue to ramp up restrictions on two-way flows of technology to try to further slow China’s growth?  How successful is such a strategy likely to be and what costs to the United States would be inherent in such an approach?

Nicholas R. Lardy is the Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.  He joined the Institute in March 2003 from the Brookings Institution, where he was a senior fellow from 1995 until 2003.  Before Brookings, he served at the University of Washington, where he was the director of the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies from 1991 to 1995.  From 1997 through the spring of 2000, he was also the Frederick Frank Adjunct Professor of International Trade and Finance at the Yale University School of Management.  He is an expert on the Chinese economy.  Lardy's most recent books are The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China? (2019), Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China (2014), Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis (2012), The Future of China's Exchange Rate Policy (2009), and China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (2008). 

Image of red flag over the Shanghai Bund

This event is part of the 2020 Winter/Spring Colloquia series, The PRC at 70: The Past, Present – and Future?, sponsored by APARC's China Program.

 

Nicholas Lardy Anthony M. Solomon Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics
Seminars
The PRC at 70: Past, Present -- and Future?

The US, China, and the Technology Cold War: How Washington and Beijing are Shaping the Future of Technology

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IMPORTANT EVENT UPDATE: 

In keeping with Stanford University's March 3 message to the campus community on COVID-19 and current recommendations of the CDC, the Asia-Pacific Research Center is electing to make this event available through live stream only. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation as we do our best to keep our community healthy and well. 

Please join the live stream via Zoom by clicking here at the scheduled time, 4:30 PM, on March 4 to view Adam Segal's talk.

 

Analysts on both sides of the Pacific have described an escalating “technology cold war” between Beijing and Washington. Chinese hackers attack American technology companies and Beijing is reportedly planning on the removal of foreign software and hardware from government offices. Washington is blocking Chinese investments, using punitive measures against Huawei and Chinese surveillance companies, and scrutinizing research collaboration with Chinese universities as well as scientists and students. Both sides believe they are in and have to win a race to dominate 5G, AI, quantum, and other emerging technologies. What are the weapons of the tech cold war, and are the US and China doomed to ever more competition, or can they find common ground for cooperation? What does increasing competition between China and the United States mean for the rest of the world?

Portrait of Adam Segal
Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman Chair in emerging technologies and national security and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force reports titled Innovation and National Security: Keeping Our Edge. His most recent book, The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age (PublicAffairs, 2016), describes the increasingly contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs, among others. He currently writes for the blog, “Net Politics.”

 

Image of red flag over the Shanghai Bund
This event is part of the 2020 Winter/Spring Colloquia series, The PRC at 70: The Past, Present – and Future?, sponsored by APARC's China Program.

 

Adam Segal Director Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program, Council on Foreign Relations
Seminars
The PRC at 70: Past, Present -- and Future?

The Logistics Operations Underlying Retail: US, China, and Japanese Models Compared

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This event is part of the Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project Public Forum Series.

 

Consumption is a major driver of national economies, and scholars often study important differences across consumption patterns across countries, which influence many aspects of their societies and economies. Yet, the underlying business of logistics operations, and how they support countries’ respective retail industries, has as much, if not more impact than simply examining consumer behavior. In this public forum, Ryuichi Kakui, with deep expertise in eCommerce logistics, will explain how logistics are used in retail industries, comparing across the world’s three largest economies: the US, China, and Japan. He will introduce the concept of strategic logistics thinking and the “4C” framework and informs leading strategic logistics thinking. A conversation with Kenji Kushida, who examines how technologies and specific industry dynamics shape varying models of political economies around the world, will then link the area of logistics and retail to important systemic differences and underlying similarities across the world’s leading economies, which are pursuing contrasting models of social, economic, and political organization.

 

SPEAKERS

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Ryoichi Kakui is the founder of E-Logit, the leading eCommerce logistics company in Japan. He has published 29 books related to logistics, Amazon, and “omnichannel” distribution, which have been published in Japan, the US, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam. He is a frequent commentator on television, radio, newspapers, magazines, and other media. Educated in Sophia University in Japan with an MBA from Golden Gate University, he founded UKETORU in 2015, a app addressing the issue of re-delivery, which escalated to a social issue in Japan.

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Kenji Kushida is a research scholar at the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. One of this research themes examines how IT technologies shape political economies around the world, and how varying national political economic models shape the development trajectories of technologies. He leads the Silicon Valley – New Japan Project, a sustained platform for research and collaboration between Silicon Valley and the new and emerging aspects as Japan transforms itself.

 

PARKING

Please note there is significant construction taking place on campus, which is greatly affecting parking availability and traffic patterns at the university. Please plan accordingly. Open parking at Stanford University available starting 4:00pm unless otherwise marked. Nearest parking garage is Structure 7, below the Graduate School of Business Knight School of Management.

Seminars

Yoshio Nose

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Global Affiliate Visiting Scholar, 2019-20
Nissoken, Japan
yoshio_nose.jpeg MBA, MS

Yoshio Nose is a global affiliate visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2019-20.  Nose is the Managing Director of Nose Kozai in Osaka as well as an assistant lecturer with Nissoken.  As a graduate of Kansai University, Nose began his career in civil engineering as a bridge designer.  In 2005, he and his brother began managing Nose Kozai, where he expanded the family business to include the building of airplane parts.  He continued his graduate studies at Kyoto University and received his second masters in 2016.  While at Shorenstein APARC, Nose will research the process of innovation and the building of the supply chain in the U.S.

A Strategic Overview of the Silicon Valley Ecosystem: Towards Effectively “Harnessing” Silicon Valley

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This report provides an overview of the Silicon Valley ecosystem. It draws upon existing scholarship and original insights to derive a picture that is only partially well-known in Japan. Characteristics such as the critical role of large firms for the startup firm ecosystem, the role of Japanese firms in creating the US firms’ “open innovation” paradigm, and the severe lack of local government coordination in providing public transportation creating opportunities for disruptive startups such as Uber, are all aspects of Silicon Valley that are not well-known in Japan. This report also delves into industry-university ties in the crucial research universities of Stanford and University of California Berkeley, highlighting the multifaceted and bidirectional interactions between universities and industry that are often not captured by the common “technology licensing office”-centered view. In the final section, this report briefly reviews a representative set of challenges often cited by large Japanese firms attempting to make use of the Silicon Valley ecosystem, concluding by suggesting areas for further research.

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Kenji E. Kushida

U.S.-China Relations Fractious, Not Fragile, Says APARC Fellow

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Noa Ronkin
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Forty years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, the two superpowers are competing and contesting every arena, from trade to AI research and from space exploration to maritime rights. Instead of what Americans referred to as engagement and Chinese called reform and opening, many experts and analysts now characterize the relations between the two countries as dangerously brittle. Some see a new kind of Cold War in the making. Such assertions, however, argues Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, “both ignore history and impute a level of fragility that has not existed for many years.”

Fingar reflects on the U.S.-China bilateral relationship in a new article, “Forty years of formal—but not yet normal—relations,” published in the China International Strategy Review. He claims that the relationship is resilient and not destined for conflict, albeit it is beset by a host of aspirational, perceptual, and structural differences.

A political scientist and China specialist who served over two decades in senior government positions, Fingar urges readers to remember that assertions of fragility of the U.S.-China relationship undervalue the strength, scope, and significance of interdependence, shared interests, and constituencies in both countries. These, he says, have a substantial stake in the maintenance of at least minimally cooperative relations.

U.S.-China relations are indeed highly asymmetrical: Chinese citizens and organizations have far greater access to the United States than Americans do to China, notes Fingar. He also recognizes that the troubles that have soured the relationship are more intricate and often more sensitive than those of the past. Decades ago, most of the issues that arose were handled at the governmental level. But now “the number and variety of players with stakes in the relationship and disputes with counterpart actors are much greater.” Furthermore, explains Fingar, the U.S. business community is expressing a stronger voice for government action to change Chinese behavior and is not as consistent an advocate of stability in U.S. policy toward China as it used to be. “This is an extremely important development,” he says, “because it reverses a key dynamic in the U.S.-China relationship.”

Ultimately, however, the two countries and our institutions and people are linked by myriad ties that bring mutual benefits as well as the constraints of interdependence. “I remain confident that we will continue to be able to manage the relationship,” concludes Fingar. He expresses disappointment, though, that normalization of U.S.-China relations remains a work in progress and cautions that merely managing the relationship to prevent it from deteriorating is an unsatisfactory goal that should be unacceptable to both sides. Not only does such a low bar limit what each counterpart can achieve, but it also inhibits the kind of cooperation required to address transnational challenges like climate change, infectious disease, and proliferation of dangerous technologies.

 

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A display for facial recognition and artificial intelligence is seen on monitors at Huawei's Bantian campus on April 26, 2019 in Shenzhen, China.
A display for facial recognition and artificial intelligence is seen on monitors at Huawei's Bantian campus in Shenzhen, China. The U.S. government battle with the Chinese telecom giant represents multiple concerns about China's technological prowess. | Kevin Frayer/ Getty Images
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Artificial Intelligence (AI), Intelligence Augmentation (IA), Human Machine Interfaces (HMI): Frontier Research and Policies for Navigating the Future Together

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The diffusion and deployment of technology is not simply shaped by the technology itself. Complementary technologies are often required to derive value from the technology, and other factors such as business models for which the technology solves significant “pain points.” Business organizations that can harness the set of technologies, along with societal factors such as regulations, employment regimes, demographics, social norms, and political dynamics can critically affect how technologies diffuse.

This conference is centered on the technological development, deployment, and diffusion of various forms of human-machine interfaces. In the morning, it examines technologies utilizing AI, IA, and pushing human-machine interfaces to the next level of commercial development (morning session A). It also introduces frontier research in medical fields and focuses on how a design approach has been effective for how medical products and solutions have been developed (morning session B). In the afternoon, it turns to a discussion of policy dynamics and considerations surrounding the use of AI and IA, particularly in broad societal deployments

This conference is a joint production of the Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center (APARC) Japan Program’s Stanford Silicon Valley - New Japan Project, and Japanese venture community, Mistletoe, Inc.

Agenda

*Agenda subject to change

9:00 - 9:30             Registration

9:30 - 9:40             Welcome Remarks

9:40 - 11:00           Morning Session A: Next Generation Human Machine Interfaces: From Science Fiction to Reality to Industrial Deployment

Presentations followed by discussion:

Ryoichi Togashi, Program Director, Komatsu

Andrew Pedtke, Co-founder and CEO, Lim Innovations

Lochlainn Wilson, CEO, SE4

Moderator: Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Stanford University

11:00 - 11:15         Break

11:15 - 12:30         Morning Session B: Bio Design and Medical Technologies, and University-Industry Ecosystems

Presentations followed by discussion:

Atsushi Taira, Chief Growth Officer, Mistletoe, Inc.

Gordon Miller Saul, Executive Director,  Stanford Byers Center for Biodesign

Christoph Leuze, Research Scientist, Stanford Radiological Sciences Lab

Pushkar Apte, Director of Strategic Initiatives, CITRIS and the Banatao Institute, UC Berkeley

Moderator: Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Stanford University

12:30 - 13:30        Lunch

1:30 - 15:00          Afternoon Discussion: Regulations, politics, and industry dynamic with considerations of accountability and ethics

Presentations followed by discussion:

Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Stanford University

Mei Lin Fung, Co-Founder, People-Centered Internet

Rosanna Guadagno, Director, Information Warfare Working Group, Stanford University

Mike Nelson, Head of Public Policy, CloudFlare

Moderator: Jaclyn Selby, Research Scholar, Stanford University

15:00                    Closing Remarks

RSVP REQUIRED

Limited seating available. Seats will be filled on a first come, first serve basis.

RSVP Deadline: May 20, 2019

RSVP link: http://www.stanford-svnj.org/52119conference

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