International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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Cover of the book 'The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century"

Southeast Asia is arguably the most diverse region in the world. Accordingly, rather than addressing the exact same question, the contributors to this volume have — as experts on Southeast Asia-China relations — explored the matters they see as most important and most deserving of exploration and exposure. After the editor’s introduction, the chapters proceed in pairs. Each pair and a closing chapter cover a distinctive theme in Southeast Asia’s interactions with China.

Featured among the historical and economic contexts needed to understand the interactions are security and development as Chinese goals and how diversified beyond China Southeast Asia’s trading partners are. Southeast Asian and Chinese perceptions of each other are examined using survey research and by asking whether China views the region as its “strategic backyard.” Two actual or intended expansions are analyzed: expanded Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea and Beijing’s interest in using “overseas Chinese” to expand its influence in the region. The chapters on strategies analyze the very different ways of approaching China preferred by Singapore and Indonesia. Rather than documenting the obvious inequalities of size and power between China on the one hand and Cambodia and Laos on the other, the essays on disparities show how relations with China interact with asymmetries inside these two states. Policy implications of differing distances are drawn in the pieces on how Southeast Asia’s proximity to China affects the prospect of Chinese regional dominance as compared with far-off America’s role and as seen through the lens of Beijing’s far-flung Maritime Silk Road. A final chapter on a seventh theme features a Myanmar analyst’s retrospection on myths and illusions that have arisen to cloud how that country’s relations with China are interpreted, with possible implications for understanding Sino-Southeast Asian dealings with China more broadly.

Learn more about the book and listen to a podcast conversation with Donald K. Emmerson >> 
 

Reviews

"The Deer and the Dragon offers a novel contribution to studies of China–Southeast Asia relations from a diverse set of voices, inviting the authors into an enriching conversation with one another. It also provides a welcome riposte to prevailing depictions of Southeast Asia as either powerless to challenge a rising China or as mere pawns in a great game between Beijing and Washington."
— Hunter Marston, Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs (Vol. 8, Issue 2, July 2021)

"In The Deer and the Dragon, Emmerson, one of the most eminent thinkers on Southeast Asia, has rallied an army of top regional experts to examine the nature, dynamics and implications of the power asymmetries between China and the countries of Southeast Asia.”
— Yun Sun, Contemporary Southeast Asia (vol. 42, no. 3, Dec 2020)


"[T]his rich compilation unearths multiple dimensions of China’s geo-economic and geo-strategic intentions in Southeast Asia, while speaking to the dynamics of power and agency [...] It will be invaluable for scholars of Southeast Asia looking to understand China’s past, future and present interactions with the region."
— Anna Buckley, Security Challenges (Vol. 16, no. 4, Dec. 2020)


"As China’s relations with most of its southern neighbors deteriorate, there is a crying need for a detailed, nuanced study to explain why. The Deer and the Dragon is the book we have been waiting for. Its diverse points of view, depth of research, and sophistication of analysis make the book essential reading."
— Nayan Chanda, Global Asia
 

“The authors of this commendably well-edited book are among the finest experts on China’s relations with Southeast Asia.  The result does justice both to the complex and multifaceted nature of China’s regional influence and to the diversity and increasing self-assertiveness of its southern neighbors, who are far from mere pawns in a game of chess between big powers.”
Richard Heydarian, author of The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery

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Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century

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Donald K. Emmerson
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Shorenstein APARC
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Sponsored by the Stanford China Program and the Stanford Center at Peking University.

The ravages of COVID-19 are now global. But the pandemic first struck in China, and the nation suffered a 6.8% decline in its first-quarter GDP. China is also the first country to move towards a recovery, however, rolling out government measures, re-opening businesses, and re-starting its economy. In this key moment, the Stanford China Program, in collaboration with alumni members of the Stanford Graduate School of Business, surveyed senior executives in China as their companies reboot their operations. In this two-part program, we first unveil potential trends and key takeaways from the survey. In the second half, we host a panel of prominent CxOs from China who give their insights and experiences rebooting their businesses. What are short-term challenges that companies in China currently face? What are some long-term implications of COVID-19 for their operational model, supply chain strategies, technology, and business digitization? What might they also mean, if any, for global trade relations and the future of globalization?

Agenda (in Pacific Time)

5:00-5:30 PM   Survey Presentation: Key Takeaways
5:30-6:15 PM   China CxO Panel: Discussion
6:15-6:45 PM   Audience Q&A

Agenda (in China)

8:00-8:30 AM   Survey Presentation: Key Takeaways
8:30-9:15 AM   China CxO Panel: Discussion
9:15-9:45 AM   Audience Q&A

 

PANEL SPEAKERS

Portrait of Shiqi WangAlvin Shiqi Wang (王世琪) has served as CEO and President of 21Vianet Group, Inc. since February 2018. Currently, Mr. Wang serves as Vice President of TUS Digital Group, a subsidiary of TUS Holdings, and serves on the board of directors of Beijing CIC Technology Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Tuwei Technology Co., Ltd. . Mr. Wang has nearly 20 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, working at various renowned international companies, including 11 years with Ericsson, focusing primarily on strategy development and execution, corporate management, and equity investments. Mr. Wang received a bachelor's degree from Tsinghua University and an MBA from Peking University-Vlerick MBA Programme (BiMBA).

 

Portrait of Xiang WangXiang Wang (王翔) is President and Acting CFO of Xiaomi Corporation, responsible for platform functions and for assisting the CEO with Group operations. Mr. Wang joined Xiaomi Corporation in July 2015 served as its Senior Vice President and President for International Business, responsible for global expansion, IP strategy, and strategic partner relationship management. Mr. Wang has more than 20 years of experience in the semiconductor and communications fields, with great vision and comprehensive understanding of next-generation wireless communications. He has played an integral role in shaping Xiaomi’s international business operations including with respect to its intellectual property compliance, management and strategy throughout the world. In 2016, Mr. Wang put together an international team of sales and marketing teams to expand into more markets outside of China. Within just 3 years, he led his teams into over 90 markets. As of Q3 2019, Xiaomi’s international revenue accounted for 48.7% of its total revenue. Today, Xiaomi is ranked among top 5 smartphone brands in over 40 markets. Mr. Wang previously served as the Senior Vice President of Qualcomm and President of Qualcomm Greater China, leading the company’s business and operations in Greater China. Prior to that role, he was Vice President of Qualcomm CDMA Technology, responsible for Qualcomm chipset business and customer service in China. Under his leadership, Qualcomm rapidly extended and strengthened its partnerships with increasing numbers of Chinese manufacturing customers. Before joining Qualcomm, Mr. Wang held key positions in sales and marketing at internationally leading companies, including Motorola and Lucent/Agere. Mr. Wang earned his BSEE from Beijing Polytechnic University.

 

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Portrait of Simon Yang
Simon Yang (杨士宁) is the CEO of Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (YMTC), who brings YMTC to a new height in 3D NAND industry. As an experienced executive in the semiconductor industry for over 30 years, Dr. Yang served as the CEO of XMC, COO/CTO of SMIC, and CTO/SVP of Chartered Semiconductor (Now GlobalFoundries), in charge of fab operation and technical R&D. Before that, he was in the Portland Technology Development sector of Intel for more than 10 years, in which he led a series of technical R&D projects. Dr. Yang obtained a Bachelor’s Degree from Shanghai University of Science & Technology, and a Master’s Degree and a Doctoral Degree from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

 

Portrait of Zhiqiang (ZZ) ZhangZhiqiang (ZZ) Zhang (张志强) is President of ABB in China since October 2018. He has extensive management experience and a deep understanding of the Chinese market, developed during his career at several large global companies over the past three decades. He joined ABB from Sandvik where he was Asia- Pacific Regional Holding Officer and President of Sandvik China, and Member of Sandvik Group Executive Committee. Prior to that, he held leadership positions at several other companies, including Nokia Siemens Networks, where he was President of the Greater China Region, and Siemens VDO Automotive, China, where he was President and CEO. Mr. Zhang is Non-Executive Board member of Georg Fischer AG (Switzerland) and Daetwyler Holding AG (Switzerland). He holds a bachelor’s degree in electronic engineering from Beijing Jiaotong University, China, and a master’s degree in business administration from the Smith School of Business at Queen’s University in Canada.

 

 

SURVEY PRESENTERS

Jean C. OiJean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the Department of Political Science and a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She directs the China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and is the Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University. Professor Oi has published extensively on China’s reforms. Recent books include Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County, coedited with Steven Goldstein (Stanford University Press, 2018), and Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization, coedited with Karen Eggleston and Yiming Wang (2017). Current research is on fiscal reform and local government debt, continuing SOE reforms, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Photo of Christopher ThomasChristopher Thomas was most recently a partner with McKinsey & Company. He served as co-Managing Partner for the Firm’s Global Digital Strategy service line as well as its Global IoT service line; and as the leader of its Asia Semiconductor Practice. Prior to McKinsey, Mr. Thomas spent ten years at Intel. He was the General Manager of Intel China, with joint ownership for the region’s $5 billion-plus P&L. In this role, he grew revenues by more than 50% and oversaw China’s successful elevation from a sales unit to an independent regional P&L business reporting directly into headquarters. Mr. Thomas began his career as a private equity investor at The Blackstone Group in New York City. He is currently a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, China’s leading educational institution. He received an MBA from Stanford Business School, where he was an Arjay Miller scholar; a Master of Arts in Political Science from Stanford University; and a Bachelor of Science in Economics, summa cum laude, from the Wharton School.

 

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Portrait of Xander Wu
Xander Wu (吴雪) oversees industry development and builds partnerships with the world’s top cloud computing companies for China Mobile International (USA). He helps clients expand their global footprint and advises companies on best practices for digital transformation. Mr. Wu has 13 years' experience in the global 4G and 5G industry, with a track record of achieving a number of the world’s first milestones in 5G and several de-facto standards for 4G and data networks. Mr. Wu graduated from Stanford Graduate School of Business, where he researched digital transformation and advised startups in the energy sector. He serves as a mentor at several incubators such as Plug and Play, helping startups find the right product/market fit and tailor go-to-market strategy.

 

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Alvin Shiqi Wang (王世琪) <br>CEO, President of 21Vianet Group, Inc.<br><br>
Xiang Wang (王翔) <br>President of Xiaomi Corporation<br><br>
Simon Yang (杨士宁) <br>CEO of Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (YMTC)<br><br>
Zhiqiang (ZZ) Zhang (张志强) <br>President, ABB (China)<br><br>
Jean C. Oi <br>Director of Shorenstein APARC China Program; William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University<br><br>
Christopher Thomas <br>Visiting Professor, Tsinghua University<br><br>
Xander Wu (吴雪) <br>China Mobile International (USA)<br><br>
Panel Discussions

Center members are invited to the Shorenstein APARC 2019 - 2020 Year End Party on Friday, May 29, 2020. Please come join us to celebrate the last academic year and say farewell to this year's visitors.

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Year End Party Invitation

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This event is available through livestream only. Please register in advance for the webinar by using the link below.

REGISTRATION LINKhttps://bit.ly/2WSJxRx

 

As the complex and multi-layered US-China relationship has become increasingly strained with the global pandemic led by the US political leadership, Japan-China relations appears to have taken a different path. Despite continued security tensions in the East China Sea, Japan and China seem to have moved closer in crucial ways, according to some important popular opinion surveys and diplomatic cooperation. At the same time, the relationship is complex with Japanese manufacturers rushing to diversify production networks and supply chains to other parts of Asia and with security issues in the oceans surrounding China continuing. 

This panel brings together deep, balanced expertise on Japan-China relations and will examine an array of areas with a focus on moving forward constructively. Panelists will cover diplomatic, security, and public opinion dimensions as well as introducing China's advanced digital technology used for medical care, education, e-commence and the rapid recovery of Japanese companies supported by China's central and local governments.

PANELISTS

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Yves Tiberghien, Professor, Political Science and Co-Director, Center for Japanese Research, University of British Columbia

Yves Tiberghien (Ph.D. Stanford University, 2002 and Harvard Academy Scholar 2006) is a Professor of Political Science, Faculty Associate in the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, Director Emeritus of the Institute of Asian Research, Co-Director of the Center for Japanese Research, and Executive Director of the China Council at the University of British Columbia (UBC). Yves is currently a visiting professor at Tokyo University and at Sciences Po Paris.

Yves is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada. He serves as the International Steering Committee Member representing Canada at Pacific Trade and Development Conference (PAFTAD). In November 2017, he was made a Chevalier de l’ordre national du mérite by the French President.

Yves' research specializes in East Asian comparative political economy, international political economy, and global economic and environmental governance, with an empirical focus on Japan, as well as China and Korea. His published books include Entrepreneurial States: Reforming Corporate Governance in France, Japan, and Korea. 2007. Cornell University Press in the Political Economy Series directed by Peter Katzenstein and Leadership in Global Institution-Building: Minerva’s Rule, edited volume, Palgrave McMillan, 2013. He is currently working on articles related to Japan’s role in the Liberal and International Order and a book, titled Up for Grabs: Disruption, Competition and the Remaking of the Global Economic Order."

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Kiyoyuki Seguchi, Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies
 
Kiyoyuki Seguchi is the Research Director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies. His research focuses on the Chinese economy and the U.S.-China-Japan trilateral relationship. Mr. Seguchi worked for the Bank of Japan from 1982 to 2009. During this time, he was Chief Representative of the Representative Office at BOJ in Beijing from 2006 to 2008. Mr. Seguchi was also the international visiting Fellow at RAND Corporation (Los Angeles, CA) from 2004 to 2005. Mr. Seguchi received his bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo.

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Portrait of Kenji Kushida

Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC Japan Program (Moderator)

Kenji E. Kushida is a Japan Program Research Scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and an affiliated researcher at the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy. Kushida’s research interests are in the fields of comparative politics, political economy, and information technology. He has four streams of academic research and publication: political economy issues surrounding information technology such as Cloud Computing; institutional and governance structures of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster; political strategies of foreign multinational corporations in Japan; and Japan’s political economic transformation since the 1990s. Kushida has written two general audience books in Japanese, entitled Biculturalism and the Japanese: Beyond English Linguistic Capabilities (Chuko Shinsho, 2006) and International Schools, an Introduction (Fusosha, 2008). Kushida holds a PhD in political science from the University of California, Berkeley. He received his MA in East Asian studies and BAs in economics and East Asian studies, all from Stanford University.

Virtually via Zoom.

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Yves Tiberghien, University of British Columbia
Kiyoyuki Seguchi, Canon Institute for Global Studies
Kenji Kushida, Stanford University
Seminars
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To celebrate its May release, contributors Karen Eggleston, Barry Naughton, and Andrew Walder will join editors Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi for a panel discussion of their volume Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future (Stanford University Press).  China has enjoyed an extraordinary run of rapid growth and development over the last 40 years.  Yet, as Fingar and Oi point out, China’s future is hardly set in stone.  Sustained economic growth, social welfare and stability will depend upon tough policy decisions confronting Beijing’s leaders today in what is a watershed moment.  Casting doubt on Beijing’s aversion to major reforms and its return to certain Mao-era policy tools, Oi and Fingar argue that China’s challenges are not only complex, but high-stakes – challenges that have become even more daunting in the aftermath of COVID-19.  As China battles the difficulties caused by an aging population, the loss of comparative economic advantage, a politically entrenched elite, and a population with rising expectations, today’s policy decisions will weigh heavily on its future. Topics explored in the volume include China's healthcare challenges in a slowing economy, its global ambitions and track record, economic aims and realities, the country’s mounting governance pressures, and more. 

 

Fateful Decisions is available for purchase here.

 

Fore more information on Fateful Decisions, check out these articles:

Karen Eggleston Examines China’s Looming Demographic Crisis, in Fateful Decisions

Now It Gets Much Harder: Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi Discuss China’s Challenges in The Washington Quarterly

China’s Challenges: Now It Gets Much Harder

 

Portrait of Karen EgglestonKaren Eggleston is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University, director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program, and deputy director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at FSI. She is also a fellow with the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health and a faculty research fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Eggleston earned her PhD in public policy from Harvard University, studied in China for two years, and was a Fulbright scholar in South Korea. Her research focuses on comparative health systems and health reform in Asia, especially China; government and market roles in the health sector; supply-side incentives; healthcare productivity; and economic aspects of demographic change.

 

Portrait of Thomas FingarThomas Fingar is a Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow in the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Previous positions include assistant secretary of state for Intelligence and Research (2000-2001, 2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific, and chief of the China Division. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (AB in government and history) and Stanford University (MA and PhD, both in political science). His most recent books are Uneasy Partnerships: China’s Engagement with Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (editor) (Stanford University Press, 2017); The New Great Game: China’s Relations with South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform (editor) (Stanford University Press, 2016); and Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011).

 

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Photo of Barry Naughton
Barry Naughton is the So Kwanlok Professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California–San Diego. Naughton’s work on the Chinese economy focuses on market transition; industry and technology; foreign trade; and political economy. His first book, Growing Out of the Plan, won the Ohira Prize in 1996, and a new edition of his popular survey and textbook, The Chinese Economy: Adaptation and Growth, appeared in 2018. Naughton did his dissertation research in China in 1982 and received his PhD in economics from Yale University.

 

Jean C. OiJean C. Oi is the William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics in the Department of Political Science and a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. She directs the China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and is the Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University. Oi has published extensively on China’s reforms. Recent books include Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County, coedited with Steven Goldstein (Stanford University Press, 2018), and Challenges in the Process of China’s Urbanization, coedited with Karen Eggleston and Yiming Wang (2017). Current research is on fiscal reform and local government debt, continuing SOE reforms, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Portrait of Andrew WalderAndrew G. Walder is the Denise O’Leary and Kent Thiry Professor of Sociology in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and a senior fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. A political sociologist, Walder has long specialized in the study of contemporary Chinese society and political economy. After receiving his PhD at the University of Michigan, he taught at Columbia, Harvard, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. At Stanford he has served as chair of the Department of Sociology, director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center, and director of the Division of International, Comparative, and Area Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences. His most recent books are Fractured Rebellion: The Beijing Red Guard Movement (2009), China under Mao: A Revolution Derailed (2015), and Agents of Disorder: Inside China’s Cultural Revolution (2019).

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Karen Eggleston <br> Senior Fellow at FSI; Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University <br><br>
Thomas Fingar <br> Shorenstein APARC Fellow, Stanford University <br><br>
Barry Naughton <br> Sokwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego <br><br>
Jean C. Oi <br> Director, Stanford China Program; William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University <br><br>
Andrew Walder <br> Senior Fellow at FSI; Denise O'Leary and Kent Thiry Professor, Stanford University <br><br>
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APARC's China Program recently hosted Center Fellow Thomas Fingar for the webinar "Was America’s China Policy a Foolish Failure? The Logic and Achievements of Engagement." In this talk, Fingar examines the longtime U.S. strategy of engagement with China as well as the potential shift toward a strategy of decoupling. "Much recent commentary on U.S. relations with China claims that the policy of 'Engagement' was a foolish and failed attempt to transform the People’s Republic into an American style democracy that instead created an authoritarian rival," he says. "This narrative mocks the policies of eight U.S. administrations to justify calls for 'Decoupling' and 'Containment 2.0.'” Fingar argues that the policy of Engagement has been fruitful and that Decoupling is not only inadvisable but also unattainable. Watch:

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An empty Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. seen with the United States Capitol  in the background.
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APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar on the U.S. Intelligence Report that Warned of a Coronavirus Pandemic

In our online conversation, Fingar discusses the 2008 National Intelligence Council report he oversaw and that urged action on coronavirus pandemic preparedness, explains the U.S. initial failed response to the COVID-19 outbreak, and considers the implications of the current crisis for U.S.-China relations.
APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar on the U.S. Intelligence Report that Warned of a Coronavirus Pandemic
Quote from Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi from, "China's Challeges: Now It Gets Much Harder"
Commentary

Now It Gets Much Harder: Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi Discuss China’s Challenges in The Washington Quarterly

Now It Gets Much Harder: Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi Discuss China’s Challenges in The Washington Quarterly
BEIJING, CHINA - Workers sit near a CRH (China Railway High-speed) "bullet train" at the Beijing South Railway Station under reconstruction.
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High-Speed Rail Holds Promise and Problems for China, Explains David M. Lampton

In a new audio interview, Lampton discusses some of the challenges, uncertainties, and decisions that loom ahead of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
High-Speed Rail Holds Promise and Problems for China, Explains David M. Lampton
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Decoupling, according to Fingar, is not only inadvisable but also unattainable. 

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This event is via Zoom Webinar. Please register in advance for the webinar by using the link below.

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Since March, a series of escalations have heightened tensions in the South China Sea. From the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat to an ongoing standoff with the Malaysian navy, China has been accused of taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic to further its control of the South China Sea. Beijing’s actions on the water are not all that different than what it was doing just a few months ago. But having them continue amid a global health crisis has sparked a new level of outrage. And the nationalistic response from Chinese authorities has only added fuel to the fire. These developments highlight the new normal in the South China Sea, which will continue long after COVID-19 fades.

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Gregory B. Poling is Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. His research interests include the South China Sea disputes, democratization in Southeast Asia, and Asian multilateralism. Mr. Poling’s writings have been featured in Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street JournalNikkei Asian Review, and Foreign Policy, among others. He has authored or coauthored multiple works including The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation (RAND Corporation, 2019), Building a More Robust U.S.-Philippines Alliance (CSIS, August 2015), and A New Era in U.S.-Vietnam Relations (CSIS, June 2014). Mr. Poling received an M.A. in international affairs from American University and a B.A. in history and philosophy from St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

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Gregory B. Poling Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia and Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies
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In 2008, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) published the fourth installment in its effort to identify “megatrends” likely to shape world events a decade or more into the future. Shorenstein APARC Fellow and China expert Thomas Fingar, the then chairman of the NIC, oversaw that report, Global Trends 2025. The unclassified report uses scenarios to illustrate some of the ways in which the factors driving world events – from climate change to demographic decline to changing geopolitical powers – may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. One of these scenarios is the emergence of a global pandemic that bears a chilling resemblance to COVID-19.

We sat down with Fingar for an online conversation about the NIC report and its pandemic scenario, the government action it spurred, the United States’ failed initial response to the COVID-19 outbreak, and the implications of the current crisis for U.S.-China relations. Watch:

Twelve years after its publication, the NIC’s "Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic" scenario (p. 75) has proven to be woefully accurate:

“The emergence of a novel, highly transmissible, and virulent human respiratory illness for which there are no adequate countermeasures could initiate a global pandemic. If a pandemic disease emerges by 2025, […] it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia […] Slow public health response would delay the realization that a highly transmissible pathogen had emerged […] Despite limits imposed on international travel, travelers with mild symptoms or who were asymptomatic could carry the disease to other continents. Waves of new cases would occur every few months. The absence of an effective vaccine and near-universal lack of immunity would render populations vulnerable to infection.”

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It was not a prediction, recalls Fingar, but rather an attempt to urge policymakers to think “beyond tomorrow,” past the end of their administration, and to stimulate strategic thinking about how to reinforce positive trends and change or ameliorate negative ones. If the report and its global pandemic scenario are precise, he notes, it is because the NIC’s effort involved the best specialists within the U.S. intelligence community and engaged numerous and varied groups of non-U.S. Government experts.

Yet the United States has been unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic and the crisis is now worsening U.S.-China tensions. To address the crisis, however, argues Fingar, both countries must cooperate in the international fora. “Let that be the way that builds towards a better bilateral relationship.”

Headshot of Thomas Fingar
Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. His forthcoming edited volume is 'Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China's Future' (Stanford University Press, May 2020).
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High-Speed Rail Holds Promise and Problems for China, Explains David M. Lampton

In a new audio interview, Lampton discusses some of the challenges, uncertainties, and decisions that loom ahead of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
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Quote from Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi from, "China's Challeges: Now It Gets Much Harder"
Commentary

Now It Gets Much Harder: Thomas Fingar and Jean Oi Discuss China’s Challenges in The Washington Quarterly

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Adam Segal lectures at APARC
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Vehicle traffic is almost non-existent on Pennsylvania Avenue as the United States Capitol is reflected in a rainwater puddle during the novel coronavirus pandemic April 13, 2020 in Washington, DC. COVID-19 has sent lawmakers home and brought the business of the nation’s capital to a near-total halt.
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In our online conversation, Fingar discusses the 2008 National Intelligence Council report he oversaw and that urged action on coronavirus pandemic preparedness, explains the U.S. initial failed response to the COVID-19 outbreak, and considers the implications of the current crisis for U.S.-China relations.

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Data-intensive technologies such as AI may reshape the modern world. We propose that two features of data interact to shape innovation in data-intensive economies: first, states are key collectors and repositories of data; second, data is a non-rival input in innovation. We document the importance of state-collected data for innovation using comprehensive data on Chinese facial recognition AI firms and government contracts. Firms produce more commercial software and patents, particularly data-intensive ones, after receiving government public security contracts. Moreover, effects are largest when contracts provide more data. We then build a directed technical change model to study the state's role in three applications: autocracies demanding AI for surveillance purposes, data-driven industrial policy, and data regulation due to privacy concerns. When the degree of non-rivalry is as strong as our empirical evidence suggests, the state's collection and processing of data can shape the direction of innovation and growth of data-intensive economies.

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Portrait of David Yang
David Yang’s research focuses on political economy, behavioral and experimental economics, economic history, and cultural economics. In particular, David studies the forces of stability and forces of changes in authoritarian regimes, drawing lessons from historical and contemporary China. David received a B.A. in Statistics and B.S. in Business Administration from University of California at Berkeley, and PhD in Economics from Stanford. David is currently a Prize Fellow in Economics, History, and Politics at Harvard and a Postdoctoral Fellow at J-PAL at MIT. He also joined Harvard’s Economics Department as an Assistant Professor as of 2020.

Via Zoom Webinar.
Register at: https://bit.ly/2VlhaMm

David Yang Prize Fellow in Economics, History, and Politics; Department of Economics, Harvard University
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This is a virtual event. Please click here to register and generate a link to the talk. 
The link will be unique to you; please save it and do not share with others.

 

China’s role in the COVID-19 outbreak has elicited a growing global backlash, including dueling Republican and Democratic campaign ads, alongside praise for China’s success in curbing the coronavirus and sending medical assistance overseas. How will the pandemic reshape China’s domestic and international standing, and what lies ahead for U.S.-China relations? Weiss will discuss the Chinese government’s pandemic response and what it reveals about the CCP’s domestic and international intentions.

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Jessica Chen Weiss
Jessica Chen Weiss is an associate professor of Government at Cornell University, China/Asia political science editor at the Washington Post Monkey Cage blog and a nonresident Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  She is the author of Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations (Oxford University Press, 2014).  Her research appears in International Organization, China Quarterly, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, and Review of International Political Economy, as well as in the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and Washington Quarterly.  She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded FACES, the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford, while an undergraduate at Stanford University.  Born and raised in Seattle, Washington, she received her Ph.D. from the University of California, San Diego in 2008, where her dissertation won the 2009 American Political Science Association Award for best dissertation in international relations, law and politics.  Weiss is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.


Image of red flag over the Shanghai BundThis event is part of the 2020 Winter/Spring Colloquia series, The PRC at 70: The Past, Present – and Future?, sponsored by APARC's China Program.

 

Via Zoom Webinar.
Register at: https://bit.ly/3erPfSn 

Jessica Chen Weiss Associate Professor of Government, Cornell University
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