The two-day forum, part of a project of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, led by the Freeman Spogli Institute’s Karl Eikenberry and Stephen Krasner, gathered experts to examine trends in civil wars and solutions moving forward.   

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The Council on Foreign Relations presently tracks six countries in a state of civil war, including three (South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Yemen) where the situation is currently worsening. Furthermore, three states (Central African Republic, Myanmar, and Nigeria) are experiencing sectarian violence with the potential to become larger conflicts. With two months still remaining in 2018, the combined fatalities in Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen alone is fast approaching 100,000 for the year.

It was against this backdrop that Shorenstein APARC’s U.S.-Asia Security Initiative (USASI), the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (AAAS), and the School for International Studies at Peking University recently co-hosted the security workshop “Civil Wars, Intrastate Violence, and International Responses.” Held in Beijing, on October 22-23, the workshop brought together thirty-five U.S. and international experts to gain a wider perspective on intrastate violence and consider the possibilities for, and limits of, intervention. The workshop is the latest activity of the AAAS project on Civil Wars, Violence, and International Responses, chaired by Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, director of USASI, and by Stephen Krasner, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and professor of international relations.

“Some of the major discussion topics included the appropriate political and economic development models to apply to fragile states recovering from internal conflict, justifications for intervention, and the likely impact of great power competition on the future treatment of civil wars." - Karl Eikenberry

Workshop participants included academics and professionals with expertise in political science, global health, diplomacy, refugee field work, United Nations, and the military. Countries represented at the table included the United States, Ethiopia, France, and China. Throughout the two-day session, they examined three crucial questions: What is the scope of intrastate conflicts and civil wars, and to what extent is it attributable to domestic or international factors? What types of threats to global security emanate from state civil wars? What policy options are available to regional powers and the international community to deal with such threats?

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USASI Director Karl Eikenberry addresses one of the sessions

China’s Emerging Role in Addressing Intrastate Violence

The workshop’s timing and location was prescient. Over the past two decades, China’s global exposure–through trade, investment, and financing–has increased dramatically. Coupled with a growing number of its citizens living abroad, China’s equity in other states has reached the point where it has a direct interest in those experiencing or are at risk of political instability and internal violence. Indeed, through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, China has the opportunity to help stabilize fragile states by stimulating economic development.

“The workshop revealed, at least for me, that China is backing away from its absolute defense of sovereignty and non-intervention,” said Stephen Krasner. “As Chinese interests have expanded around the world, and as both its investments and the number of its citizens living abroad have increased, the Chinese have become more concerned with political conditions in weakly governed countries.”

With China’s growing policy and academic interests in addressing civil wars and intrastate violence, as well as its higher international profile in places like United Nations peacekeeping operations, the Beijing event provided an excellent opportunity for Chinese experts to exchange views with their international colleagues.

Paul H. Wise, MD, MPH; Senior Fellow at Stanford Health Policy

Where We are Today, Where We Go Tomorrow

The Beijing workshop was arranged into four sessions, with themes focusing on trends in intrastate violence, the threats it poses to international security, the limits of intervention, and advice to policymakers.

Each panel included presentations of prepared papers, moderator comments, and an open discussion by all participants. A fifth and final session provided an opportunity to summarize the preceding discussions. The workshop then closed out with an open conversation, where participants offered insight and policy recommendations developed over the preceding two days of dialogue.

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The "Civil Wars, Intrastate Violence, and International Responses” workshop marks the second phase of the AAAS project by the same name that launched in 2015. The first phase of the project culminated in the publication of 28 essays across two volumes of the AAAS quarterly journal Dædalus. The ongoing second phase consists of a series of roundtables and workshops in which project participants engage with academics and with government and international organization officials to build a larger conceptual understanding of the threats posed by the collapse of state authority associated with civil wars, and to contribute to current policymaking. Project activities have included meetings with the United Nations leadership and staff; academic activities in the United States; sessions with the U.S. executive and legislative branches; and a visit to Nigeria.

Throughout the workshop, Chatham House Rule of non-attribution applied to all dialogue. A workshop report will be published by the co-hosts in early 2019.

The U.S.-Asia Security Initiative is part of Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Led by former U.S. Ambassador and Lieutenant General (Retired) Karl Eikenberry, USASI seeks to further research, education, and policy relevant dialogues at Stanford University on contemporary Asia-Pacific security issues.

March 1, 2019 update: the workshop report is now available online. Download the report >> 

Participants in the “Civil Wars, Intrastate Violence, and International Responses” workshop

5,100 miles separate Tokyo from Stanford. But for Hiroyuki Fukano, the distance was measured in more than miles. It was also a journey of time and memory–of 30 years, to be precise.

As a visiting fellow in the 1988-89 cohort of APARC’s Corporate Affiliate Program (now called Global Affiliates Program), Fukano joined Center alumni and friends from the last four decades for reunions in Beijing and Tokyo. In all, more than 100 former affiliates and visiting fellows gathered to reconnect with peers, meet new ones, and reflect on their times at Stanford.

"These gatherings are a reminder, both to our faculty and alumni, of the power of the APARC experience to change lives,” shared Director Gi-Wook Shin, who delivered welcoming remarks at both events. “We have with us alumni and affiliates from the private and public sectors, as well as from academia. They are doing amazing work in their specific fields; work influenced, in part, by their time at Stanford.”

“Clearly, the APARC experience stretches beyond barriers, both geographical and temporal.”

The gatherings also underscored the influence of the APARC experience on strengthening connections across Asia at large. For example, one Korean affiliate flew in for the Tokyo event, while a Japanese alum, now working in China, joined his Stanford peers at the Beijing gathering.

“It’s an especially unique bond that the affiliates share,” noted Global Affiliates Program Manager Denise Masumoto. “Regardless of the industry or field from which they come, their fellowship year at APARC is a unifying experience for them; it’s something each of them carries forward into everything they do.”

Fukano, who delivered remarks at the Tokyo event, echoed this sentiment. As he reflected on the thirty years that had passed since his time at Stanford, he shared that, even to this day, his year at APARC still held great significance for him.

Director Shin was joined at the events by several Center faculty members. Professor Takeo Hoshi, director of the Japan Program at APARC, updated the Tokyo audience on new research and partnerships being explored by the program.

Professor Jean Oi, director of the China Program at APARC, addressed the Beijing gathering at the Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU). Professor Oi spoke about the program’s collaboration this fall with SCPKU on their "On the Road to China" program, which brings Stanford students to SCPKU for three months of coursework and area experiences.

We thank everyone who joined us for these alumni events and look forward to seeing even more friends and partners next time.

Prof. Takeo Hoshi, Lei Guo (2016-17 Visiting Scholar, Peking University), and Masami Miyashita (2011-12 Corporate Affiliate, Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan)

Luguang Li (2002-03 Corporate Affiliate, PetroChina) and Professor Gi-Wook Shin

Masami Miyashita (2011-12 Corporate Affiliate, METI, Japan, now based in Hong Kong) and Zhuoyan Wang (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, PetroChina)

Zhuoyan Wang (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, PetroChina)

Jung-Yi Lee (2013-14 Visiting Scholar, Hanmaum Peace & Research Foundation)

Xiuxiao Wang (2016-17 Visiting Scholar, Central University of Finance and Economics) and Professor Gi-Wook Shin

Liang (Leon) Fang (2014-15 Corporate Affiliate, China Sunrain Solar Energy Co., Ltd.) and Zhuoyan Wang (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, PetroChina)

Hong Cheng (2016-17 Visiting Scholar, Wuhan University), Lei Guo (2016-17 Visiting Scholar, Peking University), Professor Takeo Hoshi, and Jianxiong Liu (2016-17 Visiting Scholar, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Professor Jean Oi and Guofeng Sun (2003-04 Corporate Affiliate, Research Institute of People’s Bank of China)

Lei Guo, 2016-17 Visiting Scholar from Peking University, and Professor Andy Walder

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Beijing reception on September 10, 2018

Toshiyuki Watanabe (2017-18 Corporate Affiliate, The Asahi Shimbun) and Takahito Inoshita (2017-18 Corporate Affiliate, Kozo Keikaku Engineering)

Hiroyuki Fukano (1988-89 Corporate Affiliate, ITOCHU Corporation)

Takashi Imoto (1998-99 Corporate Affiliate, Kansai Electric Power Company), Yasuhiro Kanda (2005-06 Corporate Affiliate, Kansai Electric Power Company), and Professor Takeo Hoshi

Aki Takahashi (2015-17 Corporate Affiliate, Nissoken), Kenichi Kamai and Kimie Kawamoto (affiliate representatives from Nissoken)

Ryuichiro Takeshita (2014-15 Corporate Affiliate, Huff Post Japan), Toshiyuki Watanabe (2017-18 Corporate Affiliate, The Asahi Shimbun) and Takahito Inoshita (2017-18 Corporate Affiliate, Kozo Keikaku Engineering)

Yotaro Akamine (2007-08 Corporate Affiliate, Tokyo Electric Power Company)

Professor Gi-Wook Shin and Keiichi Uruga (2013-14 Corporate Affiliate, Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan)

Tadashi (Brian) Miyakawa (2000-01 Corporate Affiliate, IBM, Japan)

Yohei Saito (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, Future Architect Inc.), Col. Daisuke Nakaya (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, Japan Air Self Defense Force), Akihiko Sado (2016-17 Corporate Affiliate, The Asahi Shimbun), Hiroki Morishige (2016-18 Corporate Affiliate, Shizuoka Prefectural Government) and Aki Takahashi (2015-17 Corporate Affiliate, Nissoken)

Tokyo reception on September 5, 2018

In Beijing’s bustling Chaoyang District stands a multi-story building known as the Gonghe Senior Apartments: a 400-bed nursing home for middle-income seniors who are disabled or suffer from dementia. Why is Gonghe unique and why is it worth considering? Because Gonghe is a public-private partnership (PPP), a collaborative organizational structure supported by the District Civil Affairs Bureau Welfare Division that donated the land and building and the nonprofit Yuecheng Senior Living that operates the facility. And because PPPs like Gonghe might just be the right model to address the challenges surrounding elderly care in China as well as in other nations that face a looming burden of population aging.

This was a core message shared by Alan Trager, founder and president of the PPP Initiative Ltd., who spoke at a special workshop organized by Shorenstein APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP). Focused on PPPs in health and long-term care in China, the workshop was part of a two-day convening related to the Innovation for Healthy Aging project, a collaborative research project led by APARC Deputy Director and AHPP Director Karen Eggleston that identifies and analyzes productive public-private partnerships advancing healthy aging solutions in East Asia and other regions.

The Innovation for Healthy Aging project is driven by the imperative to respond to a world that is aging rapidly. This demographic transition, reminded Trager at the opening of his talk, is a defining issue of our time, as aging is a multisectoral issue that increases the demand for health care, long-term care, and a large number of other social services. The aging challenge is exacerbated by its convergence with the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), also known as chronic diseases. For while NCDs affect all age groups, they account for the highest burden among the elderly.

China: Ground Zero for Global Aging

Alan Trager discusses health and long-term care in China in the GSB's Highly Immersive Classroom

The need to advance healthy aging and NCD prevention is a matter of grave concern in China, whose older population is larger than in any other country. Moreover, the aging challenge in China is interwoven with unique social trends. In particular, filial piety—which, for thousands of years, has been a fundamental family value and a mainstay of health and elder care—is under pressure, as young people strive to balance the demands of careers, fewer children per family, and migrating to cities for school and work, without affordable housing or long-term care financing support for their parents and other elderly relatives, who often stay in rural areas.

China’s health system is yet to adapt to the shift in the disease burden and health care needs driven by the aging population. Its existing health insurance programs are insufficient for outpatient management and care of chronic conditions, and as Trager emphasized, there is a lack of investment in training geriatric medicine professionals and incorporating geriatric principles into clinical practice.

How can China meet the high demand for elder care, increase workforce capacity, and promote healthy aging?

The answer, claims Trager, lies in developing multisector, integrated solutions to the challenges posed by population aging. While system-level efforts, such as building the social protection system and sustaining universal health coverage, continue to be led by the government, PPPs can play a major role in capacity building to ensure the sustainability of such systems through the advancement of technology, human resources, and innovation. Trager shared PPP Initiative Ltd.’s recent efforts to develop PPP solutions for aging populations in China and elsewhere. The workshop was held on October 10 at the Stanford GSB’s Highly Immersive Classroom, which is equipped with advanced video conferencing technology that allows participants in Palo Alto and at the Stanford Center at Peking University to collaborate in real-time. Experts from Beijing joined the discussion and followed Trager’s presentation with comments on how to move from awareness to action.

Private Efforts, Public Value

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Public-private collaborations—or rather collaborative governance–in China as well as in the United States is the subject of an upcoming volume co-authored by Eggleston with Harvard scholars Richard Zeckhauser and John Donahue. Both Zeckhauser and Donahue joined Eggleston the following day, October 11, at an AHPP-hosted seminar to discuss this upcoming publication, titled Private Roles for Public Goals in China and the United States: Contracting, Collaboration, and Delegation.

Eggleston, Donahue, and Zeckhauser define collaborative governance as private engagement in public tasks on terms of shared discretion, where each partner bears responsibilities for certain areas. Their upcoming book explores public-private collaborations in China and the United States, two countries where public needs require solutions that far outstrip the capacities of their governments alone. Beyond considering merely health and elderly care, the book features research into public and private roles in the governance of multiple other sectors, including education, transport infrastructure, affordable housing, social services, and civil society.

At the seminar, the three scholars reviewed different models of private efforts providing public value, outlined the justifications for collaborative governance, and explained some of the conditions that make such collaborative partnerships productive and valuable. They emphasized the need to account for the unique contexts in China and the United States and to steer clear of one-size-fits-all solutions.

Imperative for the Young Generation

One thing, they all agree, applies to both countries: government collaboration with private entities is inevitable if China and the United States are to achieve their articulated goals and meet rapidly increasing demand for high-end public services.

This sentiment echoed a claim Trager made the preceding day: a tidal wave of noncommunicable diseases in an aging world is approaching us quickly and governments cannot handle it alone. Young people must care about advancing creative solutions to this pressing problem because they will be the ones who will pay for the consequences if we get it wrong.