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The event is jointly sponsored by the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership.

The Heisei era started in 1989, with high hopes for Japan to contribute to the international order. As the Heisei era draws to an end, Japan is once again expected to “step up” with increased urgency, given the current US administration’s withdrawal from, and challenge to the international order.  In this talk, I will first look back at the thirty years of Heisei, and discuss why Japan did not take the “internationalist” path in a way that some had expected. Looking forward, I discuss how the domestic institutional changes, together with the geopolitical challenges in Asia, have prompted Japan to seek active leadership in the region and beyond. I will elaborate on the evolution of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision,” with focus on how exactly Japan seeks to achieve “free and open” in the region, and challenges and limitations going forward.

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Takako Hikotani is Gerald L. Curtis Associate Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy. She previously taught at the National Defense Academy of Japan, where she was Associate Professor, and lectured at the Ground Self Defense Force and Air Self Defense Force Staff Colleges, and the National Institute for Defense Studies. Her research focus on civil-military relations and Japanese domestic politics, Japanese foreign policy, and comparative civil-military relations. Her publications (in English) include, “The Japanese Diet and defense policy-making.” International Affairs, 94:1, July, 2018; “Trump’s Gift to Japan: Time for Tokyo to Invest in the Liberal Order,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2017; and “Japan’s New Executive Leadership: How Electoral Rules "Japan’s New Executive Leadership: How Electoral Rules Make Japanese Security Policy" (with Margarita Estevez-Abe and Toshio Nagahisa), in Frances Rosenbluth and Masaru Kohno eds, Japan in the World (Yale University Press, 2009). She was a Visiting Professional Specialist at Princeton University as Social Science Research Council/Abe Fellow (2010-2011) and Fellow of the US-Japan Leadership Program, US-Japan Foundation (2000- ). Professor Hikotani received her BA from Keio University, MAs from Keio University and Stanford University, and PhD in Political Science from Columbia University, where she was a President’s Fellow.

Takako Hikotani Associate Professor, Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy, Columbia University
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


RSVP required by February 22, 2019 at: https://goo.gl/forms/ZCwcHC0qTec2rzj63

VALID STANFORD ID CARD MUST BE PRESENTED UPON ARRIVAL

 

ABSTRACT: The United States has been the world’s dominant power for more than a century.  Now many analysts believe China is taking its place. Is China an emerging superpower? Should the United States gear up for a new cold war in Asia? In this seminar, I show that China actually lags far behind the United States by the most important measures of national wealth and power—and will probably fall further behind in the coming decades. The most likely threat to American security, therefore, is not a confident Chinese peer competitor, but a deeply insecure China that lashes out after failing to live up to the global hype about its rise. I will discuss how the United States can contain this threat without starting a cold or hot war with Beijing.   

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Michael Beckley
PROFILE: Michael Beckley is an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University and a fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. His research focuses on the rise of China and has received “best article” awards from the American Political Science Association and the International Studies Association and has been featured by numerous media, including CNN, Fox News, the Financial Times, the New York Times, NPR, and the Washington Post. Previously, Professor Beckley worked at the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He currently consults for the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment, the Joint Staff, and the National Intelligence Council. He holds a PhD in political science from Columbia University and his first book, Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower, was published last fall by Cornell University Press. Part of his talk is based on a Foreign Affairs web article that was named one of the ten “best of 2018.”

Michael Beckley Assistant Professor of Political Science Tufts University
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


RSVP required by February 12, 2019 to: https://goo.gl/forms/h9RRcz4vR9Ybn5cQ2

VALID STANFORD ID CARD MUST BE PRESENTED UPON ARRIVAL

 

ABSTRACT: Diplomacy plays a critical role in the management and resolution of armed conflict in the international system. After a war breaks out, decision makers see the opening of talks as a constructive step in the conflict’s resolution — dialogue allows for belligerents to broker deals and coordinate the logistics of war termination. However, in modern warfare, states almost always fight initially for period of time without engaging in talks. What factors explain whether states are willing to talk to their enemy while fighting and when might their diplomatic postures change? “Talking to the Enemy” presents a framework to explain variation in countries’ approaches to wartime diplomacy, focusing on the costs of talks and how states mitigate these costs to get to the negotiating table. I test this framework with respect to Chinese decision making in the Korean and Sino-Indian Wars — one in which China was against talks for nine months before opening up and the latter in which China actively pursued talks throughout the whole conflict. The findings have significant implications for crisis management and conflict resolution in U.S.-China relations.  

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Oriana Mastro
PROFILE: Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. Dr. Mastro is also a 2017-2019 Jeane Kirkpatrick Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) where she is working on a book about China’s challenge to U.S. primacy. Mastro continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she works as a Senior China Analyst at the Pentagon. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016. She has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, International Security, International Studies Review, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Survival, and Asian Security, and is the author of The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019). She holds a BA in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an MA.and PhD in Politics from Princeton University. Her publications and other commentary can be found on twitter @osmastro and www.orianaskylarmastro.com.  

 

Oriana Mastro Assistant Professor of Security Studies Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
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This panel discussion, moderated by Andray Abrahamian (Stanford APARC), will discuss health and medical care in North Korea. Physicians Kee Park (Harvard Medical School) and David S. Hong (Stanford Lucile Packard Children's Hospital) will discuss their experiences with neurosurgery in Pyongyang; and all three panelists will share perspectives on how average DPRK residents interact with their country’s health system—including distinctive aspects of North Korean public health policy and how geopolitical factors influence human security and humanitarian aid on the Korean peninsula.

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Dr. Kee B. Park is a member of the faculty at the Program in Global Surgery and Social Change (PGSSC) at the Harvard Medical School. 

He is also the Director of the North Korea Program at the Korean American Medical Association where he leads the collaboration between US and DPRK physicians. Since 2007, he has made 18 visits to DPRK, most recently in May 2018.

His academic interests include studying the unique features of the North Korean public health system, how geopolitical factors influence human security and humanitarian aid on the Korean peninsula, and the complex relationships between international security, health, and human rights.

Dr. Park is a consultant for the World Health Organization and serves on the WHO Expert Advisory Panel on Surgical Care and Anesthesia. In this capacity, he advocates for and assists in the development of national surgical plans by the Member States.

He is a diplomate of the American Board of Neurological Surgery, a member of the Advisory Committee for the Foundation of the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies, member of the National Committee on North Korea, and member of Council of Korean Americans.

Kee B. Park, MD obtained his medical degree from the Rutgers University in New Jersey and trained in neurosurgery at the Temple University Hospital in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

 

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Dr. David S. Hong specializes in the treatment of pediatric patients with neurosurgical conditions, with additional specialty training in the treatment of pediatric spinal disorders, including scoliosis. His additional clinical interests include brain tumors, epilepsy surgery, idiopathic scoliosis, Chiari malformation, vascular conditions, and concussion.  He works to develop clinical pediatric neurosurgical programs in the Bay Area.

He is an active part of the Korean American Medical Association’s Global Health Program, and as the first pediatric neurosurgeon in North Korea has been developing the recently established pediatric neurosurgical program in the DPRK since 2015.

He is a member of the American Association of Neurological Surgeons, Congress of Neurological Surgeons, the National Council on North Korea, and the Council of Korean Americans.  He completed his residency in his home state of Michigan at the Detroit Medical Center, and completed fellowship training at Rady Children's Hospital in San Diego, before becoming a part of Stanford Children's Health.

 

Andray Abrahamian is the 2018-2019 Koret Fellow at Stanford University. He is also an Honorary Fellow at Macquarie University, Sydney and an Adjunct Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. He is an advisor to Choson Exchange, a non-profit that trains North Koreans in economic policy and entrepreneurship. He was previously Executive Director and Research Direction for Choson Exchange. That work, along with supporting sporting exchanges and a TB project, has taken him to the DPRK nearly 30 times. He has also lived in Myanmar, where he taught at Yangon University and consulted for a risk management company. He has conducted research comparing the two countries, resulting in the publication of "North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths" (McFarland, 2018). Andray has published extensively and offers expert commentary on Korea and Myanmar, including for US News, Reuters, the New York Times, Washington Post, Lowy Interpreter and 38 North. 

He has a PhD in International Relations from the University of Ulsan, South Korea and an M.A. from the University of Sussex where he studied media discourse on North Korea and the U.S.-ROK alliance, respectively. Andray speaks Korean, sometimes with a Pyongyang accent.

 

Kee B. Park Program in Global Surgery and Social Change, the Harvard Medical School
David S. Hong Department of Neurosurgery, Division of Pediatric Neurosurgery Stanford Children’s Health/John Muir Hospital Stanford University/Lucile Packard Children's Hospital
Andray Abrahamian the 2018-2019 Koret Fellow at Stanford University
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Plese note: we're no longer accepting RSVPs for this event.

 

Eight years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Steady progress has been made towards the reconstruction of Fukushima, repopulation of surrounding areas, and the decommissioning of the plant, of which Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO) must shoulder 16 trillion yen of the 22 trillion yen, the total estimated cost of the accident. Meanwhile, with Japan having fully liberalized its electricity and gas retail market, the business environment surrounding TEPCO is undergoing a major change. In the long term, TEPCO foresees a decrease in demand for their power service and increased competition among utility companies. In this program, Naomi Hirose, who endeavored to manage the Fukushima incident spearhead reforming the company as President of TEPCO from 2012 to 2017, shares his insights on the current situation in Fukushima, lessons learned and implications from the accident.

 

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Naomi Hirose is senior executive whose service at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) spans four decades.  He joined the company in 1976, having gained an appreciation for the energy industry following the 1973 Oil Shock, and worked in a number of management positions from 1992 to 2005, including corporate planning, sales, marketing, and customer relations.  Mr. Hirose became an executive officer in 2006, and in 2008, conceived and spearheaded a campaign promoting the economic and environmental benefits of electrification, called “Switch” that was a Japan-first. In 2010, he re-energized the company vision for global expansion.  Immediately after the 3.11 Fukushima Accident, Mr. Hirose dedicated himself to create the system for Nuclear Damage Compensation. After becoming President and CEO in 2012, he led the company in addressing a number of highly complex issues such as water management and decommissioning plans for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, compensation for the accident and Fukushima revitalization, and keeping TEPCO competitive while facing the deregulation of Japan’s electricity market.  He currently serves as Executive Vice Chairman, Fukushima Affairs, overseeing the utility’s passionate and steadfast efforts to reconstruct and revitalize Fukushima Prefecture.  Mr. Hirose received his B.A. in Sociology from Hitotsubashi University in 1976,and his MBA from Yale School of Management in 1983.

Naomi Hirose, Vice Chairman, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TEPCO)
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Kendra Mysore, ’20, with former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Washington, D.C.
Kendra Mysore, ’20, with former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Washington, D.C. | Courtesy of Kendra Mysore
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The event is jointly sponsored by the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership.

In this talk, David Leheny (Waseda University) discusses his new book Empire of Hope (Cornell University Press, 2018), which challenges current trends in debates about emotion and politics, arguing that we should instead look at the role of narrative in shaping emotional representation. In the book, Leheny draws from debates about status in international relations theory and from debates about affect and narrative in literary and historical studies to analyze cases from Japan’s Bubble and post-Bubble eras. This talk will focus especially on a 2001 crisis in US-Japan relations over a collision between a US Navy nuclear submarine and a fisheries training boat that resulted in the deaths of nine Japanese, including four high-school students. By presenting grief as both a national emotion and as one that could be narrated through the lens of timeless cultural difference, the US and Japanese governments crafted a crisis resolution that ostensibly rested on “mutual understanding” but that also hid the messier realities of power and of loss in the collision’s aftermath.

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David Leheny is Professor in the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies at Waseda University. He previously was an assistant and associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1998-2007) and the Henry Wendt III ’55 Professor of East Asian Studies at Princeton University (2007-2017). He is the author of, in addition to Empire of Hope, The Rules of Play: National Identity and the Shaping of Japanese Leisure (Cornell University Press, 2003) and Think Global, Fear Local: Sex, Violence, and Anxiety in Contemporary Japan (Cornell University Press, 2006).

Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
David Leheny Professor in the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies Waseda University
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Sung Hyun "Andrew" Kim was a visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) through December 2019. Previously he was William J. Perry visiting scholar at APARC. Kim, who retired from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2018 as a senior intelligence officer after 28 years of service, was assistant director of the CIA's Korea Mission Center, where he helped secure the foundation for the Trump-Kim summit of June 2018.  At Stanford, he will contribute to studies of current North Korea diplomacy in comparison to previous negotiations with the DPRK, a research scope that he refers to as "U.S.-DPRK summit of the century and the tide of history."  Kim will also participate in policy engagement regarding North Korea issues through Shorenstein APARC and its Korea Program.

Kim established the CIA's Korea Mission Center in April 2017 in response to a presidential initiative to address North Korea's longstanding threat to global security. As part of his role as head of the Mission Center, he managed and guided CIA Korean analysts in providing strategic and tactical analytic products for a range of policymakers. He accompanied CIA Director and then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Pyongyang in meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un several times. Formerly he served as the Agency's associate deputy director for operations and technology, leading all efforts to update operational technology and incorporate a state-of-the-art doctrine into CIA training curricula.

Earlier in his career, Kim served as the CIA's chief of station in three major East Asian cities, while also managing the intelligence relationship with politically and militarily complicated foreign countries and advancing U.S. interests. In recognition of his many contributions, Kim was honored by the Agency with the Director's Award (2018), Presidential Rank Award (2012), and the Donovan Award (1990). He speaks fluent Korean, Japanese, and Mandarin Chinese.

Visiting Scholar at APARC
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Background: Precise future projection of population health distribution is imperative for designing an efficient healthcare system in rapidly aging countries. Multistate-transition microsimulation models such as the US Future Elderly Model have been developed based on panel data collection, but these data may not be always available. We proposed a pseudopanel method using repeated cross-sectional representative surveys as a complementary approach, and specifically applied the model to Japan's population.

Methods: We calculated birth-cohort and sex-specific prevalence for all combinations of 14 health statuses using microdata from five waves of the Comprehensive Survey of People's Living Conditions. Combining obtained prevalences with vital statistics data, we determined transition probabilities of statuses over time using contingency tables. Assuming that state transition and mortality-exit follow the first-order Markov process, we then designed a virtual Japanese population aged older than 60 years as of 2013 and performed a microsimulation to project disease distributions to 2046 with forward, backward, and external validation tests. Following validation, we compared our projection results with those based on traditional stativ models.

Results: Our calculated morbidity and mortality rates successfully replicated governmental projections of population pyramids and matched cardiovascular and cancer incidences reported in existing epidemiological studies, supporting the validity of our estimation. Our future projection of stroke and heart disease indicated lower prevalences than expected from static models, presumably because of recent declining trends in disease incidence and fatality.

Conclusions: Our pseudopanel approach provides a valid alternative microsimulation frame for future health projection in aging societies.

Keywords: Pseudopanel approach; microsimulation; forecasting; aging; comorbidities; Japan

JEL No. C53, I1, I12, J11, J14

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 55
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Brian Chen
Karen Eggleston
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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are disorders of the heart and blood vessels, are the world’s leading cause of death (WHO, 2016). The transition from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), primarily CVDs, as the primary cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide— combined with the economic burden associated with heart-related diseases—prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) and its regional offices to identify CVDs’ risk factors (WHO, 2016). This paper examines these risk factors with a focus on the fetal environment and its interaction with adult body mass index (BMI), using longitudinal data from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey (CLHNS).

Using a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios adjusted for age and risk factors in adulthood, such as cigarette smoking, the results suggest that there is a positive association between birth weight and heart disease. In addition, when birth weight is interacted with BMI, raised blood pressure is found to be higher among those who were bigger infants at birth and grew to be lighter adults, suggesting centile crossing. Probit models are also used for sensitivity analysis, and the results are consistent with those of the hazards model. Other factors such as adult obesity and a smoking habit are also positively associated with hypertension and CVD.

Keywords: Fetal origins hypothesis, CLHNS, hazards model, CVD, adult risk factors

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 54
Authors
Marjorie Pajaron
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