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The purpose of this executive summary is to provide a concise statement about what we have learned about investment into China's rural environment. The overall purpose is to help the Bank understand what is happening in rural China, what farmer's are thinking about the current trends and what they are hoping will happen in the future (if they had a say). One of the most important questions is answer what should the role of the state be.

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Report to the World Bank
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Scott Rozelle
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The "blue wave" of Democratic Party victories on November 7th has altered the dynamics inside Congress and between the legislative and executive branches. U.S. policy toward Asia will be significantly affected. We can expect new and different pressures on relations with regional actors including China and the Koreas, on Asian regionalism, and on trade and economic issues. Indonesia is likely to come in for particular scrutiny. Join us for a timely discussion of the changed domestic politics of U.S. Asia policy now and in the final two years of the Bush administration.

The U.S.-Indonesia Society (USINDO) is an independent NGO specializing in policy issues relating to Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Alphonse La Porta assumed the presidency of USINDO in 2004 after a 38-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service. In the latter capacity he served as ambassador to Mongolia and held diplomatic positions in Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and New Zealand. A former president of the American Foreign Service Association, Ambassador La Porta is a graduate of the National War College, Georgetown University, and New York University.

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Alphonse F. La Porta President Speaker United States-Indonesia Society, Washington, D.C.
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In this report, we seek to meet the specific objectives of the first phase of China's study. The key goal of this study in China is to prepare evidence-based policy advice concerning the implications and opportunities for fruit producers during a period of a boom in horticulture demand and a restructuring of downstream markets and commercialization. Hence, the research in Phase 1 concentrates on identifying the determinants and consequences of restructuring of the horticulture sector in China. The analysis is conducted on three levels: macro (the policy issues and the national business environment), meso (the different chain segments and villages) and micro (household level). Because of space limitation and timing of the research the linkages between the first two levels are analysed in this report. The micro study will be carried out during the upcoming phase.

The research for this report is structured into two parts: a.) the national-meso level and b.) the local-meso level. In part 1 key policy issues, broad fruit supply chain issues and key stakeholders are identified. This part is intended to set the stage for the analysis done in part 2 and the forthcoming household study. The goal of part 1 is to analyze the evolution of China's restructured supply chain at a national level over a period of the past 10 or more years. With this background, the objective of part 2 is to study in more depth the restructuring changes that are occurring inside China's rural communities and within the markets. It also will provide context for the forthcoming micro-level study. In particular, we primarily study how marketing supply chains are operating and evolving within villages; inside wholesale markets and inside supermarkets.

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The supermarket revolution has arrived in China and is spreading as fast as or faster than anywhere in the world. As the demand for vegetables, fruit, nuts and other high valued products has risen, urban retailers are handling increasingly more of these high value commodities. The experience of many developing countries suggests that there could be serious distributional impacts of the emergence of supermarkets. And, in China, as elsewhere in the world, there is concern among policy makers and academics that poor, small farmers might be excluded from the market for horticulture commodities.

The main goal of our paper is to understand what types of farmers have been able to participate in the horticultural revolution, how they interact with markets and how supply chains affect their production decisions and incomes. We also want to understand if (and if so, then how) the rise of supermarkets have changed supply chains. Our analysis uses spatially sampled data from 200 communities and 500 households in the Greater Beijing area and supplemented by data collected in Shandong Province, China's fruit and vegetable basket. In contrast to fears of some researchers, we find small and poor farmers have actively participate in the emergence of China's horticulture economy. Moreover, there has been almost no penetration of modern wholesalers or retailers into rural communities. We also conducted surveys and interviews in wholesale markets and with procurement agents in Beijing supermarket chains and document the fact that supply chain shifts have only affected the downstream segments of food markets and China's wholesale markets (midstream in the food supply chain) are only being affected marginally.

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Anwar Ibrahim was deputy prime minister of Malaysia in the 1990s. He also served as Malaysia's minister of finance. A sharp disagreement with then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad led to Anwar's dismissal, prosecution--many would say outright persecution--and imprisonment.

Upon regaining his freedom, Anwar took up his current role as an opposition voice. He is currently a distinguished visiting professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Since his release he has also held lectureships at St. Anthony's College (Oxford) and the School of Advanced International Studies (Johns Hopkins). He has advised the World Bank on questions of governance and accountability. Recently he was appointed honorary president of AccountAbility, a London-based organization that advocates socially responsible business practices.

This event is co-sponsored by the Southeast Asia Forum at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies.

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Anwar Ibrahim Former Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Speaker
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The end of the Koizumi era has come, bringing to a close one of the longest-serving premierships in modern Japanese history and a period of intense change in Japanese domestic and foreign policy. At the dawn of the post-Koizumi era there many questions: How much of this change will endure? Will economic reform move ahead or stagnate? Can the ruling party hold on to power without the popularity of Koizumi? What is the future of Japan's relations with its Asian neighbors? Will Japan continue to expand its security role?

The Japan Society of Northern California and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford have assembled a panel of experts for two Bay Area events to address these questions.

Speakers' Bios:

Peter Ennis, Editor, The Oriental Economist Report

As editor of The Oriental Economist Report (TOE), Ennis is responsible for overall news coverage, but focuses mostly on Japanese political and security developments. He is also US correspondent for the Weekly Toyo Keizai, with responsibility for coordinating coverage of economic and political developments in the United States that impact on US-Japan relations. For the past ten years, Mr. Ennis has written the "Inside America" column for the Weekly Toyo Keizai.

Mr. Ennis has been reporting and writing about Japan and US-Japan relations for 25 years. He began working for Toyo Keizai in 1985, first on a freelance basis, and then full time when the company opened its New York office in 1987. He became bureau chief in 1996.

Takao Toshikawa, Editor, Tokyo Insideline and Chief Correspondent, The Oriental Economist Report

Mr. Toshikawa began his career as a journalist in 1970 as a staff writer for the Weekly Post and became a senior writer in 1976. From 1970 to 1983, he served as special correspondent based in the United States covering American presidential elections and other political affairs.

In April 1983, he joined Insider Inc., and became chief editor for Tokyo Insider, an English language newsletter of Japanese political and economic affairs. He also established his own newsletter "Tokyo Insideline", a bi-weekly publication for the intelligence community. In 1997 he was appointed to the position of chief correspondent at The Oriental Economist.

Daniel Sneider, Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University.

Sneider was a 2005-06 Pantech Fellow at the Center, and the former foreign affairs columnist of the San Jose Mercury News. His twice-weekly column on foreign affairs, looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective, was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service, reaching about 400 newspapers in North America. He has appeared as a foreign affairs commentator on the "Lehrer News Hour" and on "National Public Radio."

Sneider has had a long career as a foreign correspondent. He served as national/foreign editor of the San Jose Mercury News, responsible for coverage of national and international news until the spring of 2003. From 1990-94, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, and 1985-90, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea.

Sneider's writings have appeared in many publications, including the New Republic, National Review, the Far Eastern Economic Review, Time, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, the Dallas Morning News, and the Sacramento Bee.

Steven K. Vogel, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

Vogel specializes in the potlicial economy of the advanced indistrialized nations, especially Japan. He has recently completed a book entitled Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry are Reforming Japanese Capitalism (Cornell, 2006.) His earlier book Freer Markets, More Rules: Regulatory Reform in Advanced Industrial Countries (Cornell University Press, 1996) won the 1998 Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. He has also edited a volume entitled U.S.-Japan Relations in a Changing World (Brookings Institution Press, 2002.)

Vogel has written extensively on comparative political economy and Japanese politics, industrial policy, trade, and defense policy. He has worked as a reporter for the Japan Times in Tokyo and as a freelance journalist in France. He has taught previously at the University of California, Irving, and Harvard University.

The Japan Society of Northern California
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Peter Ennis Editor Speaker The Oriental Economist Report
Takao Toshikawa Editor, Tokyo Insideline and Chief Correspondent Speaker The Oriental Economist Report
Steven Vogel Associate Professor, Political Science Speaker University of California, Berkeley
Daniel C. Sneider Moderator
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