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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Kazuhiko Ejima, "Will Japan Need a Tax Increase?"

Japan, the second largest economy in the world, is secretly facing a significant public debt problem with the worst debt-to-GDP ratio among developed countries. Despite the crisis, the country has long failed in introducing a tax increase. What obstacles are lurking in the country? Will they change in the future? Should the country try to overcome them? In Japan, it is widely believed that raising the consumption tax is the best approach to fixing the country’s finances. In contrast, based on the character of the obstacles, Ejima argues that any new budget reconstruction plan should focus more on economic growth through expenditure renovation rather than sticking to a tax increase.

Natsuki Kamiya, "Insolvent Municipalities:  Do They Need Bankruptcy?”

While municipalities can declare bankruptcy in the United States, there is no bankruptcy system for municipalities in Japan. Japanese cities in financial distress pay off all debts in full for long term, while American counterparts can seek bankruptcy protection. Kamiya examines what the differences are between the two countries. Kamiya attempts to answer the question – “Does Japan need legislation to allow municipalities to declare bankruptcy?”

Daisuke Maeda, "Long Tail Theory in Online Retail Commerce - Is It True or Not? Is It Profitable?"

The Long Tail is one of the most famous theories in online retail commerce.  Many start-ups in online commerce use this theory to justify themselves.  However, there are times when the Long Tail does not work and may have some constraints.  Maeda considers what the Long Tail is and what he would advise online retailers to do. 

Koji Toyoshima, "Quantitative Analysis and Possibility of Reduction of CO2 Emission from Passenger Transportation in Japan and the U.S."

The U.S. and Japan are the world largest and the second largest economy.  However, the CO2 emissions in these two countries are very different. The total U.S. CO2 emission per capita is more than twice of that in Japan. Twenty to thirty percent of CO2 emission comes from the transportation sector and sixty to seventy percent of them are passenger transportation in each country. The U.S. CO2 emission per capita in the passenger transportation sector is more than three times of that in Japan.  Toyoshima analyzes and compares the breakdown of CO2 emissions in the passenger transportation sector in Japan and the U.S. including the influences of public transportations to understand the trend and estimate the reduction possibility of CO2 emissions in these two countries.

Philippines Conference Room

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Kazuhiko Ejima is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-08 and 2008-09. Ejima graduated from the University of Tokyo (BA in Law) in 1990 and joined the Ministry of Finance. There, he has experienced a wide variety of areas, including budget and tax administrations, as well as privatization of public corporations. In his latest post, he was a deputy director in Ministerial Secretariat, where he worked together with the Minister and other key members in strategic management and coordination of the Ministry of Finance.

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Kazuhiko Ejima Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Ministry of Finance, Japan Speaker
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Natsuki Kamiya is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-08 and 2008-09. He works for the Shizuoka Prefectural Government, one of the local governments in Japan. He is interested in immigration policy in California. He graduated from Chuo University in Tokyo, where he majored in law.

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Natsuki Kamiya Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Shizuoka Prefecture Speaker
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Daisuke Maeda is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2008-09. 
Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he has been with Sumitomo Corporation for twelve 
years. Most recently, Maeda served as the person in charge for merchandizing and fulfillment management for an online commerce web site. Maeda completed his undergraduate study at Keio University where he majored in Mathematics and Statistics.

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Daisuke Maeda Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Sumitomo Corporation Speaker
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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Koji Toyoshima is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2008-09. He received his BS and MS in mechanical engineering from The University of Tokyo and joined the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), government of Japan in 1995. He has experienced a variety of policy making in Japan. He engaged in policy making about global warming and recycling of home appliances and he is interested in environmental policies and energy policies. He also has experience in science and technology policy making and the execution of information disclosure law in Japan.

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Koji Toyoshima Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan Speaker
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The objective of this paper is to examine the ‘soft power' exercised by associations formed by the Indian diaspora in the United States, as it relates to: (a) building up the image of India as a deserving member of the global elite - politically, culturally and economically, and, then, (b) using that image to achieve certain goals for their country of origin. The term "association" is used to denote both formal non-profit organizations, such as trade associations, and informal non-profit organizations. The latter includes informal networks created by e-mail groups, as well as initiatives of limited life-span created to achieve specific aims, such as reducing anti-dumping tariffs on steel imports from India or passing the US-India nuclear fuel agreement.

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Rafiq Dossani
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Some theorists of modernization have influentially claimed that successful “late industrialization” led by developmental states creates economies too complex, social structures too differentiated, and (middle-class-dominated) civil societies too politically conscious to sustain nondemocratic rule. Nowhere is this argument—that economic growth drives democratic transitions—more evident than in Northeast and Southeast Asia (hereafter Pacific Asia).

South Korea and Taiwan, having democratized only after substantial industrialization, seem to fit this narrative well. But “late democratizers” have been the exception rather than the rule. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand democratized before high per capita incomes were achieved. Malaysia, and especially Singapore are more wealthy than they are democratic. The communist “converts” to developmentalism, China and Vietnam, are aiming for authoritarian versions of modernity. Table 1* shows that there is no clear pattern in Pacific Asia. Indeed, according to the nongovernmental organization Freedom House (and using the World Bank categories of low, lower middle, upper middle, or high income), poor and rich countries alike in Pacific Asia are rated “free,” “partly free,” or “not free.”

What key factors have influenced the different timing of democratization in Pacific Asia? Democratization has occurred early in the developmental process when authoritarian states have failed to create sustainable economic growth, which in turn has led to mounting debt. Many reasons explain this phenomenon, but a primary cause is the so-called failure to “deepen”—that is, certain countries’ inability to become major manufacturers of high-tech and heavy industrial goods. For example, when economic crises rocked the Philippines in the mid-1980s and Indonesia in the late 1990s, both nations lacked the economic maturity and breadth to rebound, prompting abrupt financial collapse. These nations’ political systems were too ossified to channel popular unrest, and mass mobilization resulted. Ideologically, the Marcos and Suharto regimes faced accusations of cronyism, as favored business leaders stepped in to rescue failing conglomerates, sidelining once-influential technocrats in the process. In the end, these countries’ limited economic development actually broke down their authoritarian systems.

 “Late industrializers,” by contrast, do succeed in industrial “deepening.” But they are often less successful in terms of “widening”—the perception that the benefits of development are being fairly shared in society. Statistics show that South Korea and Taiwan are relatively equal societies. Nevertheless, neither of these technocratically oriented authoritarian regimes was able to blunt criticisms that growth was unjustly distributed. South Korean workers and native Taiwanese felt particularly disadvantaged. In Malaysia, too, tensions are now mounting about distribution along ethnic lines. Electoral authoritarianism helped to defuse earlier crises in South Korea and Taiwan, but beginning in the mid-1980s, opposition forces in both nations launched successful challenges through the ballot box to bring about democratization. In Malaysia, the opposition scored major gains in the 2008 elections. Ideologically, all three authoritarian regimes were weakened by activist campaigns for social justice, which mobilized middle class professionals.

One can only speculate about whether Singapore will one day democratize. Its economy has continually deepened, most recently through a major drive to grow a biotech industry. At the same time, it has widened through a series of welfare-related measures focused on housing and pensions. The Singaporean government has also perfected a system of electoral authoritarianism, allowing some competition and participation without threatening the ruling party’s hold on power. Ideologically, the government has long determined the political agenda through its collectivist campaigns (including the once high-profile “Asian values” discourse). However, when Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, eventually passes away, the nation’s technocratic elite may be tempted to democratize. Democratization would give the government greater legitimacy to reform welfare provision, which many believe is currently limiting Singapore’s competitiveness. The main arguments are summarized in table two.*

It is evident that China and Vietnam are trying to imitate the Singaporean model. Though each faces many obstacles, both countries have already made great strides in industrial deepening and widening through an elaborate postcommunist welfare system. Ideologically, these countries will rely not just on growth—which will inevitably slow during the current economic crisis—but also on appeals to a collectivist identity that is simultaneously both nationalist and neo-Confucianist in character. Whether China and Vietnam eventually democratize or remain authoritarian despite modernization is one of the most important political questions in the world today.

* Please contact the Manager of Corporate Relations for a full PDF copy of this dispatch, including tables.

 

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The stated purpose of the Trade Act of 1974 was to promote free trade. Section 301 authorized the U.S. President to impose retaliatory trade sanctions if negotiations were unsuccessful in reducing unreasonable limits on trade. The Act was reinforced in 1984, became known as “Super 301”, and made annual assessment and retaliatory measures mandatory.

Because of trade imbalances, four emerging Asian countries gave the US firms access to cigarette markets: Japan (1987), Taiwan (1987), South Korea (1989) and Thailand (1990). These forced market opennings were called the “Second Opium War” by local protestors in these countries, challenging U.S. export of unwelcome and unhealthy products.

A sea change occurred in the decades that followed the cigarette market opening in Taiwan. Of particular interest are changes in areas marketing skills and market share; lower cigarette prices; paradoxical increased smuggling; increased youth consumption; evolution of the powerful tobacco industry lobby; and a sharp increase in tobacco-related cancer deaths. Accompanying the increased cigarette consumption, a special, unusual habit of chewing betel quid started and grew into a mainstream practice among adult males (nearly one out of four). Oral and esophageal cancer increased sharply soon after the market opened. At the same time, the patriotic protectionists, NGOs, and government galvanized an anti-smoking movement, which gradually transformed Taiwan's culture so that smoking in public is no longer socially acceptable. A new term, “de-normalization,” was coined about the favorable effect of market opening.

 The ironic outcome of Super 301 is that while the market was forced open solely by the US, in only ten years, US market share, once leading, shrunk to a distant fifth, after Japan, UK, Germany and domestic producers. The trade imbalance was little affected by the opening of the cigarette market.

Dr. Wen's colloquium continues the colloquium series on tobacco control in East Asia, sponsored by the Asia Health Policy Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in coordination with FSI’s Global Tobacco Prevention Research Initiative.

Philippines Conference Room

Chi Pang Wen Speaker National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan
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What makes some governments perform better than others? With rising levels of decentralization and local democracy, the focus of "good governance" is increasingly shifting from national to subnational levels. While much of the existing development literature remains preoccupied with formal institutional and society-centered explanations, there is growing evidence that local policy reforms are strongly affected by informal norms and elite-centered processes.

Post-Suharto Indonesia, a country with one of the most pronounced shifts to democratic decentralization anywhere in recent history, is a case in point. Drawing on empirical comparisons across ten districts (comprising 1000 business surveys and 150 interviews), Dr. von Luebke argues that societal pressures are often less significant in explaining policy differences than the quality of local government leadership. In the early transition to democracy, local firms, associations, and district councils continue to be constrained by collective action and political incentive problems. Local government leaders, on the other hand, have wielded historically strong formal and informal powers and stand, for better or worse, at the gateway to local policy reform. Motivated by direct elections and prospective donor funding, some district heads have become catalysts for better governance by introducing informal public-private dialogues, innovative monitoring instruments, and meritocratic promotion schemes. In response to current development debates, these findings highlight the importance of government leadership as an often underestimated policy determinant that can compensate for weak societal checks in periods of transition from authoritarian rule.

Christian von Luebke is completing a book manuscript titled “Heterodox Governance: The Political Economy of Local Policy Reform in Post-Suharto Indonesia.”  He has been awarded a 2009-2011 German Science Foundation Fellowship for a follow-up project incorporating cases from the rest of Southeast Asia and China.  In 2001-2006 he worked in rural Indonesia as a technical advisor for the World Bank and the German Development Agency. He holds a Ph.D. in public policy from the Crawford School of Economics and Government at the Australian National University.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 726-0685 (650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar, 2009-12
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Christian von Luebke is a political economist with particular interest in democracy, governance, and development in Southeast Asia. He is currently working on a research project that gauges institutional and structural effects on political agency in post-Suharto Indonesia and the post-Marcos Philippines. During his German Research Foundation fellowship at Stanford he seeks to finalize a book manuscript on Indonesian governance and democracy and teach a course on contemporary Southeast Asian politics.

Before coming to Stanford, Dr. von Luebke was a research fellow at the Center of Global Political Economy at Waseda (Tokyo), the Institute for Developing Economies (Chiba), and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Jakarta). He received a JSPS postdoctoral scholarship from the Japan Science Council and a PhD scholarship from the Australian National University.

Between 2001 and 2006, he worked as technical advisor in various parts of rural Indonesia - for both GTZ and the World Bank. In 2007, he joined an international research team at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) analyzing the effects of public-private action on investment and growth.

Dr. von Luebke completed his Ph.D. in 2008 in Political Science at the Crawford School of Economics and Government, the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters in Economics and a B.A. in Business and Political Science from Muenster University.

His research on contemporary Indonesian politics, democratic governance, rural investment, and leadership has been published in the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Contemporary Southeast Asian Affairs, Asian Economic Journal, and ISEAS. He regularly contributes political analyses on Southeast Asia to Oxford Analytica.

Christian von Luebke 2008-2009 Shorenstein Fellow Speaker Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Human Resource Management (HRM) is a core element of any organization.  This is especially true in public service organizations whose employees are often their most valuable resource. As an employee in a Japanese local government, Ichinomoto attempts to analyze the current problems in the personnel system that are severely criticized, to find a solution on how to develop more motivated government employees to provide efficient and customer satisfactory public service.

Mari Ichinomoto is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-08 and 2008-09. She is also an official of the Industrial Recruitment and Location Division, Kumamoto Prefectural Government in Japan, with a mission to promote overseas direct investment into the country. Prior to this position, she was sent to Kumamoto trade promotion office in Singapore as a representative of the Kumamoto Prefectural Government dealing with trade promotion between Asia and Kumamoto. She graduated in foreign studies from Kitakyushu University.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow
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Mari Ichinomoto is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-08 and 2008-09. She is also an official of the Industrial Recruitment and Location Division, Kumamoto Prefectural Government in Japan, with a mission to promote overseas direct investment into the country. Prior to this position, she was sent to Kumamoto trade promotion office in Singapore as a representative of the Kumamoto Prefectural Government dealing with trade promotion between Asia and Kumamoto. She graduated in foreign studies from Kitakyushu University.

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Mari Ichinomoto Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow Speaker
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There is a potential for large gains in the efficiency of energy use with substantial economic payoffs: in buildings, motor vehicles, traffic control, electricity grids, industry. All of these applications involve the use of information technologies. This workshop will focus on demand and efficiency topics that are becoming increasingly salient.

This invitation-only workshop involves three important actors on the world energy scene: California and Mainland China are large consumers of oil while Taiwan, for its size a substantial consumer of oil and emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a leading role in information technologies. California’s size and commitment to energy efficiency makes its role an important one within the US while China’s ongoing urbanization has major energy implications.

This workshop is the first in a series with the goal of convening leading experts from these three regions to focus on key energy-economic efficiency issues, form a research agenda and collaborate on possible solutions.

Topics for discussion will include:

  • strategic policy choices, especially the challenges posed by cap-and-trading of carbon emissions
  • improving industry use of energy
  • urbanization 2.0: transportation and buildings
  • how IT helps green the planet, including the use of smart meters 
  • how consumers respond to better data
  • new venture capital investments in clean tech
  • energy efficiency start-ups in Silicon Valley

Preliminary agenda:

Day 1: Tuesday, February 17

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am – 8:45 am Introduction

Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

8:45 am – 9:45 am Keynote

“How to Think About Energy Efficiency” 
Dr. James Sweeney, Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

10:00 am Strategic Choices

Moderator: Marguerite Hancock, Associate Director, SPRIE 

10:00 am – 10:45 am

Overview: “Trading Carbon in California”   
Dr. Lawrence Goulder, Chair, Economics Department, Stanford University; Member, California Public Utilities Commission

10:45 am – 12:00 pm Panel

“Taiwan’s 2025 Carbon Reduction Goals: Options and Challenges” 
Dr. Robert J. Yang, Senior Advisor, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“A Synthesis of Energy Tax, Carbon Tax and CO2 Emission Trading System in Taiwan” 
Dr. Chi-Yuan Liang, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica & Professor, National Central University

“Measurement of Energy Efficiency in Taiwan and Relevance to CO2 Decoupling” 
Dr. Chung-Huang Huang, Dean, College of Transportation and Tourism, Kainan University and Professor, Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University

1:00 pm Industry Uses

Moderator: Dr. Chin-Tay Shih, Dean of College of Technology Management, National Tsing-Hua University

1:00 pm – 1:45 pm

Overview: “Improving Energy Efficiency in Industry” 
Dr. Eric Masanet, Principal Scientific Engineering Associate, Energy Analysis Dept., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1:45 pm – 3:00 pm Panel

“Technology R&D and Industry Development of Distributed Energy System in Taiwan”
Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“Energy Saving Potential and Trend Analysis in Taiwan” 
Dr. Jyh-Shing Yang, Senior Consultant, IEK/ITRI and Professor, National Central University

“Industrial innovation toward low carbon economy in Hsinchu Science Park”
Dr. Kung Wang, Professor, School of Management, National Central University, Taiwan

3:15 pm – 5:30 pm The Urban Environment: Buildings and Transportation

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

Framing Remarks: Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

"Integrated management of energy performance of buildings, building portfolios, and cities"
Dr. Martin Fischer, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Director, Center for Integrated Facility Engineering, Stanford University

“Challenges, priorities and strategies for energy efficiency in the electric car industry”
Mr. Fred Ni, General Manager, BYD America Corporation

"Urban Motorization in China: Energy Challenges and Solutions"
Ms. Wei-Shiuen Ng, Consultant, previously with World Resources Institute

Title TBA—delivered via video link
Mr. David Nieh, General Manager of Planning and Development, Shui On Land Corporation

 

Commentator: Dr. Fang Rong, Researcher, Center for Industrial Development & Environmental Governance, Tsinghua University

 

Day 2: Wednesday, February 18

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am How IT Helps Green the Planet

Moderator: Dr. John Weyant, Deputy Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

8:30 am – 9:00 am

“Challenges for Energy Efficiency Innovation and Convergence with Green Environmental Technology”
Dr. Simon C. Tung, General Director, Energy and Environmental Research Laboratories, ITRI

9:00 am – 10:00 am Panel: Two Perspectives on California Initiatives

“Demand Response: Time-differentiating technologies, rates, programs, metrics and customer behavior” 

Dr. Joy Morgenstern, California Public Utilities Commission

“The PG&E Smart Meter Program” 
Ms. Jana Corey, Director of AMI Initiatives, The Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

10:00 am – 10:30 am

Overview: “Behavioral Responses”
Dr. Carrie Armel, Research Associate, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

10:45 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. A Conversation on IT’s Impact on Energy

Moderator: Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Dr. Banny Banerjee, Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
  • Dr. Sam Chiu, Professor, Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University 
  • Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute
  • Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Operating in the Cleantech Space

Moderator: Dr. Craig Lawrence, Accel Partners

  • Mr. Mike Harrigan, VP Business Development, Coulomb Technology (charging hardware and software infrastructure for electric vehicles)
  • Mr. David Leonard, CEO Redwood Systems (LED lighting management systems)
  • Mr. Frank Paniagua, Jr., CEO GreenPlug (intelligent DC charging for consumer electronics devices)

3:15 p.m – 4:30 p.m. A Venture Capital Perspective

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Mr. Maurice Gunderson, Senior Partner, CMEA Capital
  • Dr. Marc Porat, CEO, Calstar Cement
  • Dr. Marianne Wu, Mohr Davidow Ventures

    Bechtel Conference Center

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    FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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    Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

    In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

    Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

    Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

    Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
    Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
    Henry S. Rowen Moderator
    William F. Miller Moderator
    Marguerite Gong Hancock Moderator
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