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Henry S. Rowen, a Stanford economist and professor emeritus of public policy and management, died in Palo Alto on Nov. 12, 2015. He was 90. Rowen, known affectionately as “Harry” to colleagues and friends, led a long, notable career in academia and public service. Having served in three U.S. administrations, he shaped the construction of American policy on a range of issues from entrepreneurship to intelligence. He was the Edward B. Rust Professor of Public Policy and Management, emeritus, at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a senior fellow, emeritus, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a director emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC).

Over the course of his career, Rowen twice held positions at the RAND Corporation, first as an economist, and later as its president for five years from 1967 to 1972.

In Washington, he held several prominent positions in the Kennedy, Reagan and George H. W. Bush administrations. From 1981 to 1983, he was the chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), and the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs from 1989 to 1991.

Rowen’s interdisciplinary experiences yielded a deep knowledge of the social and political factors in nations struggling with a sustainable peace, weighing nuclear proliferation issues, and considering new forms of governance.

Please join us for a special celebration of Professor Rowen’s life with remarks and memories shared by a distinguished group of Harry’s professional colleagues and personal friends, including:

William Perry, 19th U.S. Secretary of Defense, Director of the Preventive Defense Project,CISAC, Stanford University

Francis Fukuyama, Director, Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Senior Fellow FSI, Stanford University

Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow, Stanford University

Alain Enthoven, Professor of Public and Private Management, Emeritus, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University

William Miller, Professor of Public and Private Management, Emeritus, Professor of Computer Science, Emeritus, School of Engineering, Senior Fellow Emeritus, FSI, Stanford University

Kenneth Arrow, Professor of Economics and Professor of Operations Research, Emeritus

Michael Armacost, (moderator) Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow, Stanford University

A reception will follow in the Encina Hall Lobby

Abstract

Taiwan’s domestic politics, particularly presidential elections, has been the main driver of the island’s relations with China for two decades. The 2016 elections, in which the Democratic Progressive Party, led by Dr. Tsai Ing-wen, won both the presidency and majority control of the Legislative elections, promises to be no exception. Although PRC intentions under President Xi Jinping are far from certain, some change from the state of play under the current Ma Ying-jeou administration seems fairly certain, with implications for U.S. policy.

Bio

Richard Bush is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies. He came to Brookings in July 2002 after nineteen years working in the US government, including five years as the Chairman and Managing Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. He is the author of a number of articles on U.S. relations with China and Taiwan, and of At Cross Purposes, a book of essays on the history of America’s relations with Taiwan, published in March 2004 by M. E. Sharpe. In the spring of 2005, Brookings published his study on cross-Strait relations, entitled Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait. In 2013, Brookings published his Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations.

This talk is co-sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative in the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

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Less than four years after Mao Zedong’s death, Deng Xiaoping declared that China needed to move away from an “over-concentration of power” by an individual leader to establish a more institutionalized system of governance. Xi Jinping’s ascension to power in 2013 promised a new era of reform of the Communist Party of China (CCP), specifically intended to preserve the party’s power.  Rather than addressing governance issues, however, Xi’s actions, such as the anti-corruption campaign, have served to concentrate power in his hands, showing the weakness of political institutionalization in China after decades of collective leadership.  While decision-making processes continue to be a black box, by reclaiming the CCP’s authority over policy-making, and by chairing CCP small leading groups, Xi appears to have moved China back to Mao-style personalistic rule.   The puzzles that remain are how personalistic authoritarian rule has returned to a country characterized by a growing middle class and a modern open market economy; and what this reversion to personalistic leadership tells us about the ambiguities of institutions in communist ruling parties.  

Susan Shirk is the Chair of the 21st Century China Program and Research Professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California - San Diego. She is also director emeritus of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC). Susan Shirk first visited China in 1971 and has been teaching, researching and engaging China diplomatically ever since. 

From 1997-2000, Shirk served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia.

In 1993, she founded, and continues to lead, the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), a Track II forum for discussions of security issues among defense and foreign ministry officials and academics from the U.S., Japan, China, Russia, South Korea and North Korea.

Shirk's publications include her books, China:  Fragile Superpower; How China Opened Its Door: The Political Success of the PRC's Foreign Trade and Investment Reforms; The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China; Competitive Comrades: Career Incentives and Student Strategies in China; and her edited book, Changing Media, Changing China.

Shirk served as a member of the U.S. Defense Policy Board, the Board of Governors for the East-West Center (Hawaii), the Board of Trustees of the U.S.-Japan Foundation, and the Board of Directors of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. She is a member of the Trilateral Commission, the Council on Foreign Relations, and an emeritus member of the Aspen Strategy Group. Dr. Shirk received her BA in Political Science from Mount Holyoke College, her MA in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley, and her PhD in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This event is off the record.