**Due to space restrictions, this event has reached capacity and we will no longer be taking RSVPs. Everyone is still welcome to attend but please plan to arrive early as seating is on a first come, first serve basis.**

Under the Hu-Wen leadership, China announced a shift in its development policy from a policy program that mainly emphasizes economic growth to one that pursues a “harmonious society.” The harmonious society program was a response to rapid increases in inequality during the 1990s, and its aim has been to ensure that the benefits from growth are widely shared.    

In recent years have the benefits from growth been widely shared? Has income inequality increased or decreased during the Hu-Wen era?

Drawing on recent findings from the China Household Income Project, a collaborative survey research project monitoring changes in incomes and inequality, Professor Terry Sicular will discuss recent trends in inequality and poverty in China. 

Terry Sicular is professor of economics at the University of Western Ontario. She received her doctorate at Yale and has taught at Stanford and Harvard. She is a specialist on the Chinese economy, speaks Mandarin, and has been studying and travelling to China for more than 30 years. Her recent research examines incomes and inequality in China, as well as related topics such as educational attainment and its intergenerational transmission, and the impact of housing reforms on household income and wealth. She has published widely in scholarly journals and books, and is as a contributor to and co-editor of Inequality and Public Policy, published by Cambridge University Press (2008). She has served as a consultant to international donor organizations, and is a leader in the ongoing, China Household Income Project, a collaborative research project that conducts a nationwide household survey and monitors trends in China’s incomes and inequality.

This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series. 

The team of leaders who will take the helm in China beginning next year—the so-called “Fifth Generation”—will be better educated, have greater exposure to the outside world, and extensive experience implementing policies that have facilitated sustained economic growth and growing international influence. They may view issues somewhat differently than their predecessors but have risen to the top by going along to get ahead and are unlikely to propose radical policy initiatives.  But they must confront a growing number of challenges fueled by China’s past success and recent behavior and will be constrained by structural features of the Chinese system and integration into the global market.

Thomas Fingar is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). In 2009, he was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at FSI. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series. 

How certain is the future?

Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson addressed the intersection between crisis, uncertainty, and democracy in a keynote presentation at the 2011 annual conference of the Australian Political Studies Association.

Emmerson examined such global events as the large-scale financial crises of recent decades, the 9/11 attacks, and the Arab Spring. He argued that the current century is marked by increasing complexity and uncertainty, which interact to challenge global, regional, and national security in novel ways. It is urgent, he said, to adapt and craft political institutions that can respond quickly and aptly to these new demands.

The designation of a new lead official to oversee U.S. relations with Pyongyang and the resumption of nuclear diplomacy in Geneva in late October yet again prompt attention to the open-ended nuclear impasse with North Korea. But any assessment of U.S. strategy requires an understanding of the history of nuclear weapons development in the DPRK—a history that long antedates U.S. negotiations with North Korea of the past two decades. How has North Korea defied, stymied, deferred, and circumvented the efforts of allies, adversaries, and the International Atomic Energy Agency to inhibit its development of nuclear weapons, all amidst international isolation and acute economic privation? What does the North’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons imply for security in Northeast Asia and for global non-proliferation policy? Drawing on Cold War archival materials, interviews with those with deep experience in North Korea, and assessments of technical development in the DPRK, this seminar will delve into the extraordinary history of this profoundly idiosyncratic system, and of its ability to shape security in a pivotal geostrategic region.

Jonathan D. Pollack is a senior fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center in the Foreign Policy Program of the Brookings Institution. He is the author, most recently, of No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security (Routledge/IISS, 2011), on which his seminar will draw.

Edmund J. Malesky will argue that openness to foreign investment can have differential effects on corruption, even within the same country and under the same domestic institutions over time. Rather than interpreting bribes solely as a coercive “tax” imposed on business activities, he allows for the possibility that firms may themselves be complicit in using bribes to enter protected sectors or gain access to lucrative procurement contracts.  The propensity to bribe across sectors should vary with expected profitability related to investment restrictions. Thus, the linkage of foreign investment to corruption should increase dramatically as firms seek to enter restricted and uncompetitive sectors that offer higher rents. Malesky demonstrates this effect using a nationally representative survey of 10,000 foreign and domestic businesses in Vietnam. He also shows how the impact of domestic reforms and economic openness is affected by policies that restrict competition by limiting entry into a given sector.

Edmund Malesky is an associate professor of political science at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He has published in leading political science and economic journals, including the American Political Science Review and the Journal of Politics, and has been awarded the Harvard Academy Fellowship and Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in comparative politics. Malesky serves as the lead researcher for the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index and Cambodian Business Environment Scorecard.

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The 11^th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam was significant in several respects. It placed diplomacy in the forefront of Vietnam’s efforts to maintain peace, stability, and national security, including naming more diplomats as full members of the Central Standing Committee. For the first time, the Party officially identified protecting national interest as the top priority of Vietnam’s foreign policy. The Party continued to push for broader horizons in policymaking to facilitate Vietnam’s integration in the larger world. The Party also agreed that Vietnam should anchor itself to ASEAN and promote its relations with China and the United States. Prof. Tuan will discuss these and other aspects and implications of Vietnam’s foreign policy.

Ta Minh Tuan is a member of Vietnam’s Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP Vietnam), CSCAP’s Study Group on Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Asia Pacific, and Pacific Forum CSIS’s Young Leaders Program. He has been a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and the University of South Carolina. His degrees are from the Polish Academy of Sciences’s Institute of Political Studies (PhD), Mahatma Gandhi University’s School of International Relations (MA), and the Hanoi University of Foreign Studies (BA).