International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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November 9, 4-5 p.m. California time/ November 10, 9-10 a.m. Japan time
(Note:  Daylight Saving Time in California ends November 7)

In April 2021, then Prime Minister Suga announced to the world that Japan will strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, seemingly setting the country on a path toward accelerated energy transition primarily by renewables. Under Prime Minister Kishida, Japan’s commitment may be on a more shaky ground, as demands for steady energy supply by old industries gained more traction and calls for restarting nuclear power plants are becoming louder. In this new political environment, in which Japan’s energy policy seems to be in flux, what is the future of renewables, nuclear energy, and fossil fuels, and what is the best energy mix for Japan considering its unique geopolitical position?

Panelists 

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Photo of Phillip Lipscy
Phillip Lipscy is an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, the Chair in Japanese Politics and Global Affairs and the Director of the Centre for the Study of Global Japan at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.  His research addresses substantive topics such as international cooperation, international organizations, the politics of energy and climate change, international relations of East Asia, and the politics of financial crises.  He has also published extensively on Japanese politics and foreign policy.  Lipscy's book from Cambridge University Press, Renegotiating the World Order: Institutional Change in International Relations, examines how countries seek greater international influence by reforming or creating international organizations.  Before arriving to the University of Toronto, Lipscy was assistant professor of political science and Thomas Rohlen Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University.  Lipscy obtained his Ph.D. in political science at Harvard University and received his M.A. in international policy studies and B.A. in economics and political science at Stanford University. 

 

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Photo of Mika Ohbayashi
Mika Ohbayashi is the Director at Renewable Energy Institute since its foundation in August 2011.  Before joining the Institute, she worked in Abu Dhabi for the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) as Policy and Project Regional Manager for Asia Oceania. She is one of two founders of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) and served as Deputy Director for 8 years following its establishment in 2000. She also worked as Advisor for Climate Change Projects and Policies for UKFCO at the British Embassy to Japan. She started her career in the energy field by joining Citizens' Nuclear Information Center in 1992.  She was awarded the Global Leadership Award in Advancing Solar Energy Policy by the International Sola Energy Society (ISES) in 2017. 

 

Moderator

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Photo of Kiyo Tsutsui
Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor, Professor of Sociology, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Deputy Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is also Director of the Japan Program. He is the author of Rights Make Might: Global Human Rights and Minority Social Movements in Japan (Oxford University Press, 2018), co-editor of Corporate Responsibility in a Globalizing World (Oxford University Press, 2016) and co-editor of The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (University of Michigan Press, forthcoming 2021). 

 

 

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This event is part of the 2021 Fall webinar series, Perfect Storm: Climate Change in Asia, sponsored by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Via Zoom Webinar
Register:  https://bit.ly/2YayEzo

 

Phillip Lipscy <br>Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto<br><br>
Mika Ohbayashi <br>Director of Renewable Energy Institute<br><br>
Kiyoteru Tsutsui <br>Director of the Japan Program and Professor of Sociology, Stanford University
Panel Discussions
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October 18, 4-5:00 p.m. California time/ October 19, 8-9:00 a.m. Japan time

The recent LDP Presidential Election ended with Fumio Kishida defeating Taro Kono in the final round to become the LDP President and then Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Yoshihide Suga, who stepped down amidst mounting political challenges dealing with COVID and its economic consequences. This was a closer election than most other LDP Presidential elections with a great deal of intrigue about how the publicly popular Kono might fare against Kishida, who the senior LDP leadership preferred. What does this election process tell us about Japanese politics today, and how will LDP fare in the upcoming House of Representatives Election? Will Kishida last longer than Suga as Prime Minister, and what do opposition parties have to do to stop the dominant LDP to change Japanese politics? In this webinar, two leading experts on the topic, Rieko Kage (University of Tokyo) and Dan Smith (Columbia University), address these questions, moderated by Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Deputy Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is also Director of the Japan Program.

Panelists

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Photo of Rieko Kage
Rieko Kage is Professor of Political Science at the University of Tokyo.  She graduated from the Faculty of Law at Kyoto University and earned her Ph.D. from the Department of Government, Harvard University.  She is the author of Civic Engagement in Postwar Japan (2011) and Who Judges? Designing Jury Systems in Japan, East Asia, and Europe (2010), both of which have been published from Cambridge University Press, and she has published broadly on issues relating to judicial politics, political participation, and public opinion.  Her most recent article, "War, Democratization, and Generational Cohort Effects on Participation in Japan" is forthcoming from Electoral Studies.

 

 

 

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Photo of Dan Smith

Daniel M. Smith is the Gerald L. Curtis Visiting Associate Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. He is the author of Dynasties and Democracy (Stanford University Press, 2018), and numerous articles on Japanese politics, party politics, and elections. He is also a co-editor of the Japan Decides election series. From 2012 to 2013, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University.

 

 

 

 

Moderator

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Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor, Professor of Sociology, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Deputy Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is also Director of the Japan Program. He is the author of Rights Make Might: Global Human Rights and Minority Social Movements in Japan (Oxford University Press, 2018), co-editor of Corporate Social Responsibility in a Globalizing World (Oxford University Press, 2016) and co-editor of The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (University of Michigan Press, forthcoming 2021). 

Via Zoom Webinar
Register: https://bit.ly/3icfq3j

 

 

 

Rieko Kage <br><i>Professor of Political Science at the University of Tokyo</i><br><br>
Dan Smith <br><i>Gerald L. Curtis Visiting Associate Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy at Columbia University</i><br><br>
Kiyoteru Tsutsui <br><i>Director of the Japan Program and Deputy Director of Shorenstein APARC</i><br><br>
Seminars
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 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

SEMINAR RECORDING

                      

About the Event: How do rising powers like China manage to build power in international systems dominated by one or more established great powers? International relations theory provides some answers, but most assume emulation of successful approaches. This paper leverages the established business literature on how new companies gain market share in markets dominated by established companies to develop a new theory of power accumulation. I argue that only under very narrow circumstances can rising powers build power and influence through emulation. Instead, China has built enough power over the past 25 years to be considered a great power competitor by doing things differently. Specifically, it exploits US blind spots, maneuvers in areas of strategic uncertainty and engages in entrepreneurial actions. I demonstrate that Chinese military strategy exhibits these components in its responses to key pillars of US foreign policy strategy like global power projection, foreign military intervention, and in conventional and nuclear posture decisions. The findings have significant implications for great power competition as well as for power transition theory.

 

About the Speaker: Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an inaugural Wilson Center China Fellow. She continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she works as a strategic planner at INDOPACOM. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016. She has published widely, including in Foreign Affairs, International Security, International Studies Review, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Survival, and Asian Security. Her book, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019) won the 2020 American Political Science Association International Security Section Best Book by an Untenured Faculty Member. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University. Her publications and other commentary can be found on twitter @osmastro and www.orianaskylarmastro.com.

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Stanford CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall
Stanford,  CA  94305-6055

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Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
OrianaSkylarMastro_2023_Headshot.jpg PhD

Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She was previously an assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University. Mastro continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve, for which she currently works at the Pentagon as Deputy Director of Reserve Global China Strategy. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016 and 2022 (FGO).

She has published widely, including in International Security, Security Studies, Foreign Affairs, the Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Economist, and the New York Times. Her most recent book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power (Oxford University Press, 2024), evaluates China’s approach to competition. Her book, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime (Cornell University Press, 2019), won the 2020 American Political Science Association International Security Section Best Book by an Untenured Faculty Member.

She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University.

Her publications and commentary can be found at orianaskylarmastro.com and on Twitter @osmastro.

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Myanmar Back into Darkness: 2021 Shorenstein Journalism Award Recipient Swe Win to Headline Award Panel Discussion

The military coup in February 2021 put an abrupt end to hopes of democracy and liberty in Myanmar.  With every form of free speech now brutally suppressed, one of the major victims of the coup has been the independent press. Newsrooms were raided and dozens of journalists have been arrested. Several publications, including Myanmar Now, had their operating licenses revoked and their websites blocked. Most of the staff of the news outlets targets by the junta were forced to flee to territories along the country's border areas controlled by ethnic armed organizations. From there, they continue their professional work despite the threats to their lives and logistical difficulties.  
 

Join APARC as we honor Burmese investigative journalist Swe Win, editor-in-chief of Myanmar Now and winner of the 2021 Shorenstein Journalism Award. In his award keynote address, Swe Win will speak about journalism under threat in Myanmar, what it is like to report on the crisis in the country from outside while in exile, and Myanmar’s future.

The keynote will be followed by a conversation with Swe Win and two experts: Scot Marciel, a career diplomat, former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar, and currently a visiting practitioner fellow on Southeast Asia at APARC, and Eileen Donahoe, executive director of the Global Digital Policy Incubator at Stanford.

The event will conclude with an audience Q&A session moderated by Donald K. EmmersonDirector of the Southeast Asia Program at APARC.

Follow us on Twitter and use the hashtag #SJA21 to join the conversation.

Speakers:

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Photo of Swe Win, winner of 2021 Shorenstein Journalism Award
Swe Win is a Burmese journalist, human rights defender, and the chief editor of Yangon-based news outlet Myanmar Now. He has survived an assassination attempt and detention by his own government. Now he leads Myanmar Now from exile and his newsroom is in hiding.

Swe Win has written extensively on human rights cases that involve physical injury or death, unlawful detention or miscarriage of justice in Myanmar. He is the recipient of the 2019 Ramon Magsaysay Award for Emergent Leadership, which is regarded as Asia's equivalent of the Nobel Prize, the 2017 European Union’s Schuman Award for Human Rights, and the 2016 Presidential Certificate of Honor for Social Service through Journalism from the Myanmar Ministry of Information for his groundbreaking investigation into years-long abuse of domestic workers at a Yangon tailor shop.

Previously, he worked as a senior reporter for the Irrawaddy Magazine and freelanced for international publications such as the New York Times. From 1998 to 2005, he spent seven years in jail for distributing anti-junta material.

Photograph: Thet Htoo for the Mekong Review - https://mekongreview.com/cause-and-karma

 

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Photo of Eileen Donahoe
Eileen Donahoe is the executive director of the Global Digital Policy Incubator (GDPI) at the Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. GDPI is a global multi-stakeholder collaboration hub for development of policies that reinforce human rights and democratic values in digitized society. Areas of current research include AI and human rights, combating digital disinformation, and governance of digital platforms.

Donahoe served in the Obama administration as the first U.S. Ambassador to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, at a time of significant institutional reform and innovation. After leaving government, she joined Human Rights Watch as director of global affairs, where she represented the organization worldwide on human rights foreign policy, with special emphasis on digital rights, cybersecurity, and internet governance. Earlier in her career, she was a technology litigator at Fenwick & West in Silicon Valley.

She serves on the National Endowment for Democracy Board of Directors; the Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity; the World Economic Forum Future Council on the Digital Economy; University of Essex Advisory Board on Human Rights, Big Data and Technology; NDI Designing for Democracy Advisory Board; Freedom Online Coalition Advisory Network; and Dartmouth College Board of Trustees.

 

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Photo of Scot Marciel
Scot Marciel is a career diplomat with 35 years of experience in Asia and around the world. He is currently a visiting practitioner fellow on Southeast Asia at Shorenstein APARC.

Mr. Marciel served as U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar from March 2016 through May 2020, leading a mission of 500 employees during the difficult Rohingya crisis and a challenging time for both Myanmar’s democratic transition and the United States-Myanmar relationship. Prior to serving in Myanmar, Ambassador Marciel served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department, where he oversaw U.S. relations with Southeast Asia.

In previous roles, he served as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, the first U.S. ambassador for ASEAN Affairs, deputy assistant secretary of state for Southeast Asia, at U.S. missions in Turkey, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Brazil and the Philippines, and at the State Department in Washington in multiple positions.

 


About the Shorenstein Journalism Award:

The Shorenstein Journalism Award, which carries a cash prize of US $10,000, recognizes outstanding journalists who have spent their careers helping audiences around the world understand the complexities of the Asia-Pacific region, defined broadly to include Northeast, Southeast, South, and Central Asia and Australasia. Award recipients are veteran journalists with a distinguished body of work. News organizations are also eligible for the award.

The award is sponsored and presented by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) at Stanford University. It honors the legacy of the Center’s benefactor, Mr. Walter H. Shorenstein, and his twin passions for promoting excellence in journalism and understanding of Asia. It also symbolizes the Center’s commitment to journalism that persistently and courageously seeks accuracy, deep reporting, and nuanced coverage in an age when attacks are regularly launched on the independent news media, on fact-based truth, and on those who tell it.

An annual tradition, the Shorenstein Journalism Award alternates between recipients whose work has mostly been conveyed through American news media and recipients whose work has mostly been conveyed through news media in one or more parts of the Asia-Pacific region. Included among the latter candidates are journalists who are from the region and work there, and who, in addition to their recognized excellence, may have helped defend and encourage free media in one or more countries in the region.

Learn more at https://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/events/shorenstein-journalism-award.

Virtual Webinar Via Zoom

Register at: https://bit.ly/3tNN7wG

Swe Win <br><i>Editor-in-Chief, Myanmar Now; 2021 Shorenstein Journalism Award Winner </i><br><br>
Eileen Donahoe <br><i> Executive Director, Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University </i><br><br>
Scot Marciel <br><i> Career Diplomat, Former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar; Visiting Practitioner Fellow on Southeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University </i><br><br>
Panel Discussions
Authors
Noa Ronkin
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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for four types of fellowship in contemporary Asia studies for the 2022-23 academic year.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on contemporary Japan, contemporary Asia broadly defined, health or healthcare policy in the Asia-Pacific region, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each fellowship and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2022. The application deadline is January 3, 2022.
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2022. The application deadline is January 3, 2022.
 

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Charles Crabtree Appointed as a Visiting Assistant Professor with the Japan Program at APARC

Crabtree, an assistant professor at Dartmouth College, researches discrimination in politics, particularly in Japan.
Charles Crabtree Appointed as a Visiting Assistant Professor with the Japan Program at APARC
Portrait of Radhika Jain with text congratulating her on winning the inaugural Adam Wagstaff award
News

Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow Radhika Jain Wins Prestigious Health Economics Award

Jain is the recipient of the inaugural Adam Wagstaff Award for Outstanding Research on the Economics of Healthcare Financing and Delivery in Low- and middle-Income Countries. Her award-winning paper provides the first large-scale evidence on the behavior of private hospitals within public health insurance in India.
Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow Radhika Jain Wins Prestigious Health Economics Award
[Left] Postdoc Spotlight, Jeffrey Weng, Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia, [Right] Jeffrey Weng
Q&As

Postdoc Spotlight: Jeffrey Weng on Language and Society

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia Jeffrey Weng shares insights from his research into how language and society shape one another, particularly how the historical use of Mandarin affects contemporary Chinese society and linguistics.
Postdoc Spotlight: Jeffrey Weng on Language and Society
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Autumn scene on the Stanford campus with a call to apply for APARC's 2022-23 fellowships for Asia schoalrs
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The Center offers fellowships for postdoctoral scholars specializing in contemporary Asia, Japan, and Asia health policy and for experts on Southeast Asia.

Authors
Oriana Skylar Mastro
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There are many reasons to fear an impending Chinese attack on Taiwan: Intensified Chinese aerial activity. High-profile Pentagon warnings. Rapid Chinese military modernization. President Xi Jinping’s escalating rhetoric. But despite what recent feverish discussion in foreign policy and military circles is suggesting, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan isn’t one of them.

Some critics of President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan argue the move will embolden Beijing because it telegraphs weakness — an unwillingness to stick it out and win wars that China will factor in when deciding whether to attack Taiwan, which it considers to be part of its territory.

The reality is, though, that the U.S. departure from Afghanistan will more likely give pause to Chinese war planners — not push them to use force against Taiwan.

The Chinese Communist Party’s stated goal is “national rejuvenation”: Regaining China’s standing as a great power. Chinese leaders and thinkers have studied the rise and fall of great powers past. They have long understood that containment by the United States could keep China from becoming a great power itself.

Luckily for Beijing, the Afghan war — along with Iraq and other American misadventures in the Middle East — distracted Washington for two decades. While China was building roads and ports from Beijing to Trieste, Italy, fueling its economy and expanding its geopolitical influence, the United States was pouring money into its war on terrorism. While Beijing was building thousands of acres of military bases in the South China Sea and enhancing its precision-strike capabilities, the U.S. military was fighting an insurgency and dismantling improvised explosive devices.

While Beijing was building thousands of acres of military bases in the South China Sea and enhancing its precision-strike capabilities, the U.S. military was fighting an insurgency and dismantling improvised explosive devices.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

In many ways, it was just dumb luck that Mr. Xi and his predecessors, thanks in part to the war in Afghanistan, could build national power, undermine international normsco-opt international organizations and extend their territorial control all without the United States thwarting their plans in any meaningful way.

But the end of the war in Afghanistan could bring these good times — which the Communist Party calls the “period of important strategic opportunities” — to an abrupt end. Sure, over the past 10 years American presidents tried to get back into the Asia game even as the war continued. Barack Obama asserted we would pivot to Asia back in 2011. Donald Trump’s national security team made great power competition with China its top priority.

But neither went much beyond paying lip service. The withdrawal shows Mr. Biden is truly refocusing his national security priorities — he even listed the need to “focus on shoring up America’s core strengths to meet the strategic competition with China” as one of the reasons for the drawdown.

Such a refocusing comes not a moment too soon. Chinese expansion and militarization in the South China Sea, deadly skirmishes with India, its crackdown in Hong Kong and repression in Xinjiang all point to an increasingly confident and aggressive China. In particular, Chinese military activity around Taiwan has spiked — 2020 witnessed a record number of incursions into Taiwan’s airspace. The sophistication and scale of military exercises has increased as well. These escalations come alongside recent warnings from Mr. Xi that any foreign forces daring to bully China “will have their heads bashed bloody” and efforts toward “Taiwan independence” will be met with “resolute action.”

The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is “strategic ambiguity” — there is no explicit promise to defend it from Chinese attack. In this tense environment, U.S. policymakers and experts are feverishly considering ways to make U.S. commitment to Taiwan more credible and enhance overall military deterrence against China. A recent $750 million arms sale proposal to Taiwan is part of these efforts, as is talk of inviting Taiwan to a democracy summit, which undoubtedly would provoke Beijing’s ire.

Some have argued that America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan undermines efforts to signal U.S. support for Taiwan. On the surface, it may seem as if the U.S. withdrawal would be a good thing for China’s prospects at what it calls “armed reunification.” Indeed, this is the message the nationalist Chinese newspaper The Global Times is peddling: The United States will cast Taiwan aside just as it has done with Vietnam, and now Afghanistan.

However, the American departure from Afghanistan creates security concerns in China’s own backyard that could distract it from its competition with the United States. Beijing’s strategy to protect its global interests is a combination of relying on host nation security forces and private security contractors and free-riding off other countries’ military presence. Analysts have concluded that China is less likely than the United States to rely on its military to protect its interests abroad. Beijing appears committed to avoiding making the same mistakes as Washington — namely, an overreliance on military intervention overseas to advance foreign policy objectives.

Now there will be no reliable security presence in Afghanistan and undoubtedly broader instability in a region with significant economic and commercial interests for China. Chinese leaders are also worried that conflict in Afghanistan could spill across the border into neighboring Xinjiang, where Beijing’s repressive tactics have already been the cause of much international opprobrium.

The reality is, the United States stayed much longer in Afghanistan than most expected. This upsets China’s calculus about what the United States would do in a Taiwan crisis, since conventional wisdom in Beijing had been that the painful legacy of Somalia would deter Washington from ever coming to Taipei’s aid.

But U.S. interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have called these assumptions into question. Taiwan, with its proportionately large economy and semiconductor industry, is strategically important to the United States. U.S. power and influence in East Asia are reliant on its allies and military bases in the region and America’s broader role as the security partner of choice. If Taiwan were to fall to Chinese aggression, many countries, U.S. allies included, would see it as a sign of the arrival of a Chinese world order. By comparison, Afghanistan is less strategically important, and yet the United States stayed there for 20 years.

If Taiwan were to fall to Chinese aggression, many countries, U.S. allies included, would see it as a sign of the arrival of a Chinese world order. By comparison, Afghanistan is less strategically important, and yet the United States stayed there for 20 years.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

This does not bode well for any designs Beijing might have for Taiwan.

It’s true that China would benefit from a home-field advantage given Taiwan’s proximity, and that Beijing’s arsenal is far greater than Taiwan’s. China, too, would likely enjoy more domestic public support for any conflict than the U.S. would for yet another intervention.

But if China has any hope of winning a war across the Strait, its military would have to move fast, before the United States has time to respondChinese planners know that the longer the war, the greater the U.S. advantage. Unlike Chinese production and manufacturing centers, which can all be targeted by the United States, the American homeland is relatively safe from Chinese conventional attack. China is far more reliant on outside sources for oil and natural gas, and thus vulnerable to U.S. attempts to cut off its supply.

And the Chinese economy would suffer more: Since the war would be happening in Asia, trade would be bound to be disrupted there. The United States would need to stick it out for only a short time — not 20 years — for these factors to come into play.

A call on Thursday between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi hinted at the stakes — the two “discussed the responsibility of both countries to ensure competition does not veer into conflict,” according to the White House.

Chinese leaders already expected a tense relationship with the Biden administration. Now they are faced with the fact that the United States might have the will and resources to push back against Chinese aggression, even if it means war.

So, while there may be other reasons to oppose the end of the war in Afghanistan, the impact on China’s Taiwan calculus is not — and should not be — one of them.

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Figures of Kuomintang soldiers are seen in the foreground, with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background, on February 04, 2021 in Lieyu, an outlying island of Kinmen that is the closest point between Taiwan and China.
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Strait of Emergency?

Debating Beijing’s Threat to Taiwan
Strait of Emergency?
An Island that lies inside Taiwan's territory is seen with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background.
Commentary

The Taiwan Temptation

Why Beijing Might Resort to Force
The Taiwan Temptation
A case holding lunar rock and debris collected from the Moon by China's space program that is part of a display at the National Museum of China is seen on March 2, 2021 in Beijing,
Commentary

Chinese Space Ambition

On the American Foreign Policy Council Space Strategy podcast, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro discusses how China views space and why the United States must not surrender global leadership in pursuing aspirational and inspirational space goals.
Chinese Space Ambition
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Taiwan island seen from mid-air.
Taiwan island seen from mid-air. | Yongyuan Dai/Getty Images
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In a New York Times opinion piece, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan does not represent a potential catalyst for an impending Chinese attack on Taiwan.

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Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia, 2021-22
mary-collier_wilks.jpg PhD

Mary-Collier Wilks joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia for the 2021-2022 year. Her research interests include globalization, gender, and the politics of international development. Wilks' interests arose due to her work as a grant writer at a local NGO, Social Services of Cambodia. At that time, she began to think about the complicated process of foreign aid and international development, seeing how resources and ideas from all over the world flow through NGOs to affect the lives of people in Cambodia. Following from this experience, her research agenda centers meaning-making and power dynamics in international organizations. She is particularly interested in how development is encountered in people’s everyday lives, and the gendered meanings, divisions, and struggles that arise from such encounters.

Wilks recently obtained her Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Virginia. For her dissertation, funded by the National Science Foundation and the Fulbright IIE, she conducted a multi-sited ethnography comparing INGOs from the U.S. and Japan implementing women's health programs in Cambodia. Her dissertation contributes to scholarly theories of global civil society and international development, contending that in order to adequately analyze and improve development outcomes, we must attend to national variation in INGO programs and practices. She has also worked as a consultant in the development sector, working as a researcher for a local NGO in Cambodia, conducting a gender analysis for a USAID health project, and served as a trainer for a USAID Women’s Leadership Conference.

At APARC, she worked on transforming her dissertation manuscript into a book and extending her comparative research agenda to investigate how NGO practices are shaped by the business cultures in which their donors are embedded.

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Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia, 2021-22
diana_stanescu_2.jpg PhD

Diana Stanescu joined APARC as Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia for the 2021-2022 academic year. Previously, she was a postdoctoral fellow with the Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, at Harvard University. She holds a B.A. in International Relations & Asian Studies from Mount Holyoke College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Princeton University. During 2018-2020 she was a Pre-Doctoral Exchange Scholar in the Department of Government at Harvard.

Her research interests include international trade, regulation, and lobbying with a focus on Japan, using formal and quantitative methods. Her research addresses the overarching question of how bureaucracies shape global economic governance, from a structural and agent-driven perspective. Her dissertation, “The Bureaucratic Politics of Foreign Economic Policymaking,” explains the mechanisms by which stakeholders shape international economic policy through bureaucratic channels of influence.  Additional work looks at the micro-foundations of bureaucratic structure and its consequences for policy; examines the role of individual bureaucrats within domestic and international institutions; and develops micro-level data on bureaucratic careers and appointments.

As a Shorenstein APARC Postdoctoral Fellow, Dr. Stanescu further assessed how politicians and interest group representatives maneuver within bureaucratic channels to have influence over foreign economic policy. In particular, she examinedhow bureaucratic-interest group networks help firms obtain market access abroad, with evidence from trade and foreign direct investment in Japan.

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Jakarta time: Friday, October 8, 2021 07:00 - 08:30 AM

Students often ask themselves: Do I want to be a specialist or a generalist? A hedgehog digging deeper or a fox ranging wider? The answer embedded in Gita Wirjawan’s life so far is unequivocal: Go broad. Think big. And be optimistic. For his weekly virtual podcast Endgame, Gita has interviewed many people, including Stanford’s Southeast Asia Program director Don Emmerson.  Don will turn the tables and interview Gita in this event. Gita will highlight life lessons from his international childhood and consider questions such as these: How well or poorly is Indonesia coping with corrupted governance, religious extremism, Covidian infection, and climate change? How should it respond to worsening US-China relations? To China’s efforts to control the South China Sea? To America’s exit from Afghanistan? To Myanmar’s brutal junta and ASEAN’s apparent impotence? Worldwide, looking forward, is eco-suicide avoidable? Will surveillance technology doom liberal democracy? If there is a global endgame to be played, how should concerned actors play it? Have present perils made Gita’s proactive optimism all the more necessary? Or all the more naïve? Attend the event and find out.

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Gita Wirjawan is the founding chairman of the Ancora Group of private-equity investors and wealth managers in Indonesia. He has held leadership positions in Citibank, JP Morgan, and other such firms. His philanthropy sustains the Ancora Foundation, which seeks to improve access to quality education in Indonesia across a range of endeavors—from funding the training of kindergarten teachers to endowing scholarships for students to attend universities around the world including Stanford. His passion for sports led Gita to chair Indonesia’s badminton association (2012-16). His public service career has included heading Indonesia’s trade ministry (2011-14) and investment coordinating board (2009-2011). A jazz pianist, he has performed in concerts and composed and played pieces in more than a dozen albums. His degrees include masters in business administration (Baylor) and public policy (Harvard). Indonesia’s School of Government and Public Policy sponsors his wide-ranging podcast “Endgame with Gita Wirjawan.”

Via Zoom Webinar
Register: https://bit.ly/3z7hM9b

Gita Wirjawan Indonesian businessman, philanthropist, educationist, musician, former minister of trade, badminton advocate, and popular talk-show host
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