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China’s role in the COVID-19 outbreak has elicited a growing global backlash, including dueling Republican and Democratic campaign ads, alongside praise for China’s success in curbing the coronavirus and sending medical assistance overseas. How will the pandemic reshape China’s domestic and international standing, and what lies ahead for U.S.-China relations? Weiss will discuss the Chinese government’s pandemic response and what it reveals about the CCP’s domestic and international intentions.

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Jessica Chen Weiss
Jessica Chen Weiss is an associate professor of Government at Cornell University, China/Asia political science editor at the Washington Post Monkey Cage blog and a nonresident Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  She is the author of Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations (Oxford University Press, 2014).  Her research appears in International Organization, China Quarterly, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, and Review of International Political Economy, as well as in the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and Washington Quarterly.  She was previously an assistant professor at Yale University and founded FACES, the Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford, while an undergraduate at Stanford University.  Born and raised in Seattle, Washington, she received her Ph.D. from the University of California, San Diego in 2008, where her dissertation won the 2009 American Political Science Association Award for best dissertation in international relations, law and politics.  Weiss is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.


Image of red flag over the Shanghai BundThis event is part of the 2020 Winter/Spring Colloquia series, The PRC at 70: The Past, Present – and Future?, sponsored by APARC's China Program.

 

Via Zoom Webinar.
Register at: https://bit.ly/3erPfSn 

Jessica Chen Weiss Associate Professor of Government, Cornell University
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In keeping with the State of California's shelter-in-place orders, this event is available through livestream only. Please register in advance for the webinar by using the link below.

REGISTRATION LINKhttps://bit.ly/3e1r7FZ

The time of this event has changed to 4:30pm-5:30pm PDT.

 

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread throughout the world, Japan is experiencing its second wave of coronavirus outbreak, following a first wave early on, just as it had become clear that the virus was spreading rapidly from Wuhan. In late February, travel restrictions were followed by Prime Minister Abe’s call for school closures. But as the pandemic raged through parts of Europe and then the United States, and as a growing number of countries issued shelter-in-place orders and lockdowns, Japan seemed relatively unscathed. Concerns then escalated and calls for voluntarily restricting peoples’ movement started in earnest following the decision to postpone the 2020 Olympics. On April 6, Prime Minister Abe declared a state of emergency for seven prefectures.

This panel brings together expertise on Japan’s political leadership with experience in Japan’s crisis management. Professor Harukata Takenaka has long studied how Japan’s political leadership has evolved, while Mr. Akihisa Shiozaki, an expert on crisis management, was a core member of Japan’s first private-sector investigative report after the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

This is the first in an APARC-wide series of virtual seminars that explore Asian countries’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Held throughout the spring quarter, each event is led by one of APARC’s programs.

PANELISTS

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Aki Shiozaki Headshot

Akihisa Shiozaki, Partner, Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu

Akihisa Shiozaki is widely recognized for his expertise in corporate crisis management, including regulatory investigations, white collar defense, product recall, labor/employment disputes, import/export control, cyber security, media interaction and various corporate governance issues, especially those with multi-jurisdictional or parallel civil and criminal components. In recent years, he has advised both domestic and foreign clients in resolving a number of the most high profile corporate crises cases relating to Japan, including the LIBOR/TIBOR manipulation investigation, FX manipulation investigation, global product recall by a Japan auto-parts manufacturer, international trade secret theft in the semiconductor industry, government investigations against a global pharmaceutical corporation operating in Japan, and his representation of the former CEO of Olympus Corporation who brought light to the company's recent accounting scandal. He is recognized by Legal 500 as a Leading Individual in the field of Risk Management and Investigations. In 2017, Akihisa was awarded the Compliance / Investigations Lawyer of the Year at the Asian Legal Awards hosted by The American Lawyer, in association with The Asian Lawyer, China Law & Practice and Legal Week.

Akihisa worked in the Prime Minister’s office as senior policy advisor from 2006 to 2007 and is knowledgeable in Japanese regulations /rules and governmental procedures, as well as having rich experience dealing with the media. He also serves as the vice-chairman of the Anti-Yakuza Committee at the Daiichi Tokyo Bar Association and has authored many related publications. He graduated from the University of Tokyo (LL.B.), holds an M.A. in international policy from Stanford University, and completed his MBA at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania where he served as class president.

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Harukata Takenaka Headshot

Harukata Takenka, Professor of Political Science, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)

Harukata Takenaka is a professor of political science at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.  He specializes in comparative politics and international political economy, with a particular focus on Japanese political economy. His research interests include democracy in Japan, and Japan's political and economic stagnation since the 1990s.  He received a B.A. from the Faculty of Law of the University of Tokyo and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.  He is the author of Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan: Breakdown of a Hybrid Regime, (Stanford University Press, 2014), and Sangiin to ha [What is House of Councillors], (Chuokoron Shinsha, 2010).

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Portrait of Kenji Kushida

Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC Japan Program (Moderator)

Kenji E. Kushida is a Japan Program Research Scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and an affiliated researcher at the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy. Kushida’s research interests are in the fields of comparative politics, political economy, and information technology. He has four streams of academic research and publication: political economy issues surrounding information technology such as Cloud Computing; institutional and governance structures of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster; political strategies of foreign multinational corporations in Japan; and Japan’s political economic transformation since the 1990s. Kushida has written two general audience books in Japanese, entitled Biculturalism and the Japanese: Beyond English Linguistic Capabilities (Chuko Shinsho, 2006) and International Schools, an Introduction (Fusosha, 2008). Kushida holds a PhD in political science from the University of California, Berkeley. He received his MA in East Asian studies and BAs in economics and East Asian studies, all from Stanford University.

Via Zoom Webinar. Register at https://bit.ly/3e1r7FZ

Akihisa Shiozaki, Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu
Harukata Takenka, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
Kenji Kushida, Shorenstein APARC Japan Program
Panel Discussions
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Many observers, and many investors, believe that young people are especially likely to produce the most successful new firms. Integrating administrative data on​ firms, workers, and owners, we study startups systematically in the U.S. and find​ that successfull entrepreneurs are middle-aged, not young. The mean age at​ founding for the 1-in-1,000 fastest growing new ventures is 45.0. The findings are​ similar when considering high-technology sectors, entrepreneurial hubs, and​ successful firm exits. Prior experience in the specific industry predicts much greater​ rates of entrepreneurial success. These findings strongly reject common hypotheses​ that emphasize youth as a key trait of successful entrepreneurs.

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Javier Miranda, Principal Economist, Economy-Wide Statistics Division, US Census Bureau

Bio:

Javier Miranda is Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau where he began his career in 1998. Javier received his Ph.D. in Economics from American University in 2004. Previous to joining the Census Javier was a research consultant at the World Bank and the Urban Institute. Javier has published papers in the areas of industrial organization, technological change, job creation, entrepreneurship and firm financing. Among his publications are articles in the American Economic Review, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Journal Macroeconomics, Review of Economic and Statistics, IMF Review, World Bank Economic Review, Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, and multiple books and chapters.  Javier received the Director's Award for Innovation (2007) and the U.S. Department of Commerce Bronze Medal (2011). His contributions to data infrastructure are notable. Javier Miranda is responsible for the development of the Longitudinal Business Database and the Business Dynamics Statistics and is the Synthetic Longitudinal Business Database v3. Together with the USPTO Javier has led the development the Business Dynamics Statistics of Innovative Firms a longitudinal database of firms, patents, and inventors. Javier Miranda is also President of the Board of SEM an adult education and job readiness program designed to address the root causes of poverty, illiteracy, and violence in Washington DC.

Advisory on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

In accordance with university guidelines, if you (or a spouse/housemate) have returned from travel to mainland China or South Korea in the last 14 days, we ask that you DO NOT come to campus until 14 days have passed since your return date and you remain symptom-free. For more information and updates, please refer to the Stanford Environmental Health & Safety website: https://ehs.stanford.edu/news/novel-coronavirus-covid-19.

 

 

Javier Miranda, Principal Economist, Economy-Wide Statistics Division, US Census Bureau
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In Live Long and Prosper?, a new eBook edited by David Bloom, AHPP director Karen Eggleston contributes the chapter "Understanding 'Value for Money' in Healthy Ageing," in which she advocates for and explains the concept of "net value of medical care," a metric that helps quantify the social value of spending on healthcare. Understanding value for money, Eggleston writes, is a way of "determining which services and technologies are unnecessary and which are of high value," a determination that is of increasing importance for aging societies, in which "spending for chronic diseases represents a large and increasing part of public and private budgets." 

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Jointly with partners throughout Asia, the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) at Shorenstein APARC has developed comparative research on health care use, medical spending, and clinical outcomes for patients with diabetes in the region and other parts of the world as a lens for understanding the economics of chronic disease management. Karen Eggleston, AHPP director and APARC deputy director, recently traveled to South Korea, where she led three project-related events.

On November 29, a workshop on Net Value Diabetes Management was held at Seoul National University (SNU) School of Medicine. This was the third such workshop convened through the project, following two previous ones held in Beijing at the Stanford Center at Peking University. Another workshop, on diabetes modeling, hosted by the Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, was held at Chung Ang University on December 1. Finally, on December 5, Eggleston held an information session, titled Comparative Economics Research on Diabetes, during the 2019 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) at BEXCO in Busan. These events were also made available through video conferencing to enable remote participation by collaborators who were unable to travel to Korea.

[Learn more about AHPP’s Net Value in Diabetes Management research project]

Diabetes Net Value Workshop

The workshop brought together team members from multiple health systems — including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, India, the Netherlands, and the United States — to discuss comparative research on the economics of diabetes control. Eggleston shared the results of a study outlined in a working paper on the net value of diabetes management in Japan, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. This research is part of a broader series of studies aimed to help address the policy challenge of finding the best strategies to improve health through cost effective prevention and healthcare productivity in chronic disease management.

The key to this research was to measure changes in quality or health outcomes over time by predicting mortality risk using blood pressure, blood sugar, and other factors amenable to patient and provider control and improvement (controlling for age and duration of diabetes diagnosis). The research seeks to understand how we can control cost and eliminate waste without cutting out the things that are valuable and improving people’s quality of life. Further studies probe determinants of relative net value of a pay-for-performance program in Taiwan, adherence to medications and vertical integration in Japan, and net value based on a randomized controlled trial in India.

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Karen Eggleston (left) with workshop participants.

Young Kyung Do of SNU reported that according to his evaluation project for diabetes care, the quality of care and treatment in South Korea has improved and is similar to Hong Kong and Singapore. The goal of the program is to provide more comprehensive care to diabetes patients.

Talitha Feestra of the Netherlands net value team presented her proposal for joint research to develop new prediction models for specific populations as a core component of health economics decision models in Diabetes. Feestra will take the lead to develop the plan and time frame for the continuation of this research in 2020.

Several additional comparative studies were proposed and discussed. Participants who attended the workshop and contributed to discussion included Junfeng Wang from the Netherlands net value team; Jianchao Quan and Carmen Ng from Hong Kong University; Daejung Kim from the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA); Taehoon Lee, Eun Sil Yoon, and Hongsoo Kim from SNU; Piya Hanvoravongchai from Chulalongkorn University; and Gregory Ang from National University of Singapore. Remote participants included Vismanathan Baskar from Madras Diabetes Research Foundation; Wasin Laohavinij from Chulalongkorn University (visiting Stanford University autumn quarter); and Rachel Lu from Chang Gung University.

Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge Workshop on Diabetes Modeling

Philip Clarke from the Health Economics Research Center, University of Oxford, presented the history of insulin as a cure for diabetes and discussed in detail methods for economic modeling of diabetes, including quality of life and diabetes cost, drawing from his rich experience developing the UK Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model. The second presenter was Andrew Palmer of University of Tasmania, Australia. His presentation included many additional economic modeling pointers, especially regarding drawing in the literature for building models.

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Karen Eggleston with participants at the Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge Workshop; (right hand side) from left to right: Andrew Palmer, Karen Eggleston, Philip Clarke.

We are grateful to Professors Clarke and Palmer for graciously allowing the AHPP network researchers to join the workshop both in person and remotely, adding to their chronic disease modeling skills, and for inviting Karen Eggleston to present a keynote at the Mt Hood conference that took place before the modeling workshop.

Information Session: Comparative Economics Research on Diabetes

The third and final component of the diabetes research events was held on December 5 as part of the International Diabetes Federation congress in Busan, Korea, and presented the network to clinicians and public health researchers. Participants from China, India, and Australia attended. They shared updates on their individual projects and discussed methods and ideas for future collaboration.

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Using a dynamic microsimulation model, a research team, including APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, shows that there are differentially positive health gains of smoking reduction among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

Tobacco use is responsible for the death of approximately eight million people worldwide, estimates the World Health Organization, and countries are increasingly making tobacco control a priority. Indeed the relationship between smoking and the burden of chronic diseases such as cancer, lung disease, and heart disease, and, in turn, premature mortality, is well documented. Yet little is known about the health effects of smoking interventions among subgroups of smokers.

Do interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases? And how do these effects vary across populations? In today’s rapidly aging world, it is crucial to understand the potential health gains resulting from interventions to reduce smoking, a leading preventable risk factor for healthy aging.

That’s why a research team, including APARC Deputy Director and Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston as well as Stanford Health Policy faculty member Jay Bhattacharya, set out to examine the health effects of smoking reduction. To do so, the team simulated an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States.

[To receive more stories like this directly to your inbox subscribe to our newsletters.]

The team’s findings, discussed in a new paper published by the journal Health Economics, show that smoking reduction can achieve significant improvements in lifetime health as measured by survival while also reducing the prevalence of major chronic diseases, though the effects are heterogeneous. Whereas interventions in both subgroups and in all three countries led to an increased life expectancy and decreased prevalence of chronic diseases, the life-extension benefits were greatest – 2.5 to 3.7 years – for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers, compared with gains of 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers.

The team developed a dynamic microsimulation model to estimate the health gains of reducing smoking among heavy smokers and light smokers. Microsimulation models are powerful tools for assessing the value of health promotion: they model individual health trajectories while accounting for competing risks, thus providing valuable information about the impact of interventions and how they may interact with the changing demographics and socioeconomic profile of a population to determine future health. The team’s study applied microsimulation models tailored to the demographic and epidemiological context in the three countries, then compared the gains in survival and reduction in chronic disease prevalence from a given reduction in smoking and how these impacts vary depending on initial smoking intensity.

The team’s findings indicate that there are differentially positive health effects from smoking reduction. The life‐year gain among heavy smokers quitting well exceeds that of light smokers quitting in each country, but the magnitudes differ substantially: 11.2 times for South Korea, 6.8 times for Singapore, and 1.7 times for the United States. The lower life expectancy among Americans is related to the greater extent in which they suffer from risk factors, such as obesity, relative to the Asian counterparts in the study.

The findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries. They are particularly important for aging societies that are concerned about the sustainability of their health insurance systems in the face of increasing burden of chronic disease.

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Shorenstein APARC's annual overview for academic year 2018-19 is now available.

Learn about the research, events, and publications produced by the Center's programs over the last twelve months. Feature sections look at U.S.-China relations and the diplomatic impasse with North Korea, and summaries of current Center research on the socioeconomic impact of new technologies, the success of Abenomics, South Korean nationalism, and how Southeast Asian countries are navigating U.S.-China competition. Catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, and outreach/events.

Read online:

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The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well‐known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work‐lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases and how the effects vary across populations.

Using a microsimulation model, the authors examine the health effects of smoking reduction by simulating an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. They find that life expectancy would increase by 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers and 2.5 to 3.7 years among heavy smokers. Whereas both interventions led to an increased life expectancy and decreased the prevalence of chronic diseases in all three countries, the life‐extension benefits were greatest for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers. The authors' findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries.

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Health Economics
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Daejung Kim
Cynthia Chen
Bryan Tysinger
Sungchul Park
Ming Zhe Chong
Lijia Wang
Michelle Zhao
Jian-Min Yuan
Woon-Puay Koh
Joanne Yoong
Karen Eggleston
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The Sino-Japanese competition for influence in Asia is often overlooked by Western observers. While the US-Japan Alliance has been the cornerstone of security in East Asia for over a half-century, under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has modernized its military, steadily enhanced it regional activities, and deepened relations with countries around the region. Economically, as well, Tokyo has offered a counterpart to Chinese investment and development aid. The alliance with the United States is a indispensable element in Japan's regional strategy, one which Beijing would like to disrupt. How has China pursued its goal of driving a wedge between Tokyo and Washington? From military buildup, through pressure in the East China Sea, to diplomatic initiatives, Beijing has sought to raise the perceived risk to both Japan and the United States of maintaining their unique relationship. What are the prospects for the future of the US-Japan alliance, especially in the post-Abe era?

 

SPEAKER

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Michael Auslin is the Payson J. Treat Fellow in Contemporary Asia at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. A historian by training, he specializes in contemporary and historical U.S. policy in Asia and political and security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. A best-selling author, Dr. Auslin’s latest book is The End of the Asian Century:  War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World’s Most Dynamic Region (Yale). He is a longtime contributor to the Wall Street Journal and National Review, and his writing appears in other leading publications, including The Atlantic, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and Politico. He comments regularly for U.S. and foreign print and broadcast media. Previously, Dr. Auslin was an associate professor of history at Yale University, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and a visiting professor at the University of Tokyo.  He is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, and has been named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum, a Fulbright Scholar, and a Marshall Memorial Fellow by the German Marshall Fund, among other honors, and serves on the board of the Wilton Park USA Foundation. He received a BSc from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and his PhD in History from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

 

PARKING

Please note there is significant construction taking place on campus, which is greatly affecting parking availability and traffic patterns at the university. Please plan accordingly. Nearest parking garage is Structure 7, below the Graduate School of Business Knight School of Management.
 

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This event is part of the Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project Public Forum Series.

 

Consumption is a major driver of national economies, and scholars often study important differences across consumption patterns across countries, which influence many aspects of their societies and economies. Yet, the underlying business of logistics operations, and how they support countries’ respective retail industries, has as much, if not more impact than simply examining consumer behavior. In this public forum, Ryuichi Kakui, with deep expertise in eCommerce logistics, will explain how logistics are used in retail industries, comparing across the world’s three largest economies: the US, China, and Japan. He will introduce the concept of strategic logistics thinking and the “4C” framework and informs leading strategic logistics thinking. A conversation with Kenji Kushida, who examines how technologies and specific industry dynamics shape varying models of political economies around the world, will then link the area of logistics and retail to important systemic differences and underlying similarities across the world’s leading economies, which are pursuing contrasting models of social, economic, and political organization.

 

SPEAKERS

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Ryoichi Kakui is the founder of E-Logit, the leading eCommerce logistics company in Japan. He has published 29 books related to logistics, Amazon, and “omnichannel” distribution, which have been published in Japan, the US, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam. He is a frequent commentator on television, radio, newspapers, magazines, and other media. Educated in Sophia University in Japan with an MBA from Golden Gate University, he founded UKETORU in 2015, a app addressing the issue of re-delivery, which escalated to a social issue in Japan.

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Kenji Kushida is a research scholar at the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. One of this research themes examines how IT technologies shape political economies around the world, and how varying national political economic models shape the development trajectories of technologies. He leads the Silicon Valley – New Japan Project, a sustained platform for research and collaboration between Silicon Valley and the new and emerging aspects as Japan transforms itself.

 

PARKING

Please note there is significant construction taking place on campus, which is greatly affecting parking availability and traffic patterns at the university. Please plan accordingly. Open parking at Stanford University available starting 4:00pm unless otherwise marked. Nearest parking garage is Structure 7, below the Graduate School of Business Knight School of Management.

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