1
Taiwan Program Postdoctoral Fellow, 2024-2026
Ruo-Fan Website Headshot2.png PhD

Ruo-Fan Liu was the inaugural Taiwan Program Postdoctoral Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). She earned her PhD in sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Her research explores how Taiwan's holistic admission reforms created uncertainties for students and how parents and teachers leveraged cultural and social capital to restore admissions advantages.

A Fulbright recipient and former Congress party negotiator, Ruo-Fan is also the author of Let the Timber Creek: An Alternative School’s Utopia for Coming Generations, recognized as one of the top ten non-fiction books by China Times. Her work has been published in International Studies in Sociology of Education and Ethnography, and she also investigates transformative meritocracy and credentialism in East Asia.

At APARC, Ruo-Fan transformed her dissertation, When Ladders Move, into a book manuscript while expanding her research on uncertainty and legitimacy to offer practical recommendations for different nations’ policies and talent flows. Learn more about her work on her website and follow her on X.

Date Label
Authors
Noa Ronkin
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is delighted to share that Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for the New York Times, has won the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award for Excellence in Asia-Pacific Coverage. The award recognizes Buckley’s expertly crafted narratives unraveling the intricate tapestry of politics, social dynamics, and security issues in China and Taiwan. He will receive the award at a public ceremony at Stanford in October 2024.

Buckley’s reporting journey spans over two decades, covering Chinese politics, foreign policy, social change, and environmental issues. In recent years, he has focused on detailing the complex dynamics of the Chinese Communist Party’s governance, the transformative impact of Xi Jinping's leadership on China’s domestic and international affairs, and the varied responses to these developments from the Chinese populace. Since relocating to Taipei in late 2022, he has expanded his coverage to include Taiwanese society, politics, and culture, providing a comprehensive view of the region’s evolving landscape. His perceptive coverage navigates the challenges of tightened restrictions on foreign press reporting on China.


Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive our experts' analysis and commentary >

With his journalistic prowess, profound insights into China’s political system, and finely honed accounts, Chris Buckley has shined a critical light on the shifts in Chinese society and politics and broke numerous stories despite facing government backlash and personal sacrifice.
Gi-Wook Shin

Buckley was with colleagues a finalist for the 2020 Pulitzer Prize in international reporting for gripping accounts that revealed China's covert efforts to repress millions of Uyghurs and other ethnic groups in the Xinjiang region through a system of labor camps, harsh treatment, and extensive surveillance. He was also part of the Times team that won the 2021 Pulitzer Prize in Public Service for coverage of the Covid pandemic. One of several Times correspondents to race into Wuhan in the earliest days of the Covid outbreak, he spent 76 days in the city during the lockdown there, reporting on the Chinese government’s opacity as the Coronavirus spread and covering the public outcry following the death of whistleblower Dr. Li Wenliang.

In May 2020, Buckley was forced to leave mainland China, where he had lived and worked for more than two decades, and was then barred from working in Hong Kong. Based in Taipei since 2022, he has continued to report on China and now also covers Taiwan.

“With his journalistic prowess, profound insights into China’s political system, and finely honed accounts, Chris Buckley has shined a critical light on the shifts in Chinese society and politics and broke numerous stories despite facing government backlash and personal sacrifices,” said APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin. “We are honored to recognize him with the Shorenstein Journalism Award.”

Before rejoining the New York Times in 2012, Buckley was a senior correspondent in Beijing for Reuters News Agency for 7 years, and before that worked as a researcher and reporter for the Times and International Herald Tribune in Beijing. He grew up in Sydney, Australia, earned a bachelor's degree in history from the University of Sydney, studied Chinese Communist Party history at Renmin University in Beijing, and received a doctorate in Chinese studies from Australian National University.

Presented annually by APARC, the Shorenstein Award carries a $10,000 cash prize and commemorates the legacy of APARC’s benefactor, Mr. Walter H. Shorenstein, and his twin passions for promoting excellence in journalism and understanding of Asia. The selection committee for the award praised Buckley’s exemplary work as embodying the award’s purpose, commenting that he is “truly unparalleled in his knowledge and understanding of China.”

The committee members are William Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy; Anna Fifield, the Washington Post's Asia-Pacific editor and recipient of the 2018 Shorenstein Journalism Award; James Hamilton, the Hearst Professor of Communication, chair of the Department of Communication, and director of the Journalism Program at Stanford University; Louisa Lim, associate professor, Audio-Visual Journalism Culture and Communication at the University of Melbourne; and Raju Narisetti, publisher of McKinsey Global Publishing at McKinsey and Company.

Twenty-two winners previously received the Shorenstein Award. Recent honorees include The Caravan, India's premier magazine of long-form journalism; Emily Feng, international correspondent for NPR covering China, Taiwan, and beyond; Swe Win, editor-in-chief of Myanmar Now; and Nobel Laureate Maria Ressa, CEO and president of the Philippines-based news organization Rappler.

Information about the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award ceremony and panel discussion celebrating Buckley will be forthcoming in the fall quarter.

Read More

Conference participants gather on stage for a group photo at the Innovate Taiwan conference
News

APARC Launches New Taiwan Program, Igniting Dialogue on Taiwan’s Future

The Taiwan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center will serve as a Stanford hub and catalyst for multidisciplinary research and teaching about contemporary Taiwan. The program’s inaugural conference convened industry leaders, scholars, and students to examine Taiwan’s challenges and opportunities.
APARC Launches New Taiwan Program, Igniting Dialogue on Taiwan’s Future
A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at a Philippine Navy chartered vessel in the South China Sea
News

New Report Sheds Light on People's Liberation Army’s Role in Escalating Indo-Pacific Tensions

Through case studies on the People's Liberation Army’s close encounters with the militaries of Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, a new National Bureau of Asian Research report edited by Oriana Skylar Mastro assesses the strategic calculus behind the PLA's actions and implications for regional conflict and deterrence.
New Report Sheds Light on People's Liberation Army’s Role in Escalating Indo-Pacific Tensions
2024 Incoming Fellows at Shorenstein APARC
News

APARC Names 2024 Incoming Fellows

The Center’s new cohort of nine scholars pursues research spanning diverse topics across contemporary Asia studies.
APARC Names 2024 Incoming Fellows
Hero Image
Chris Buckley, chief China correspondent for the New York Times, winner of the 2024 Shorenstein Journalism Award.
All News button
1
Subtitle

Presented by Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the 23rd Shorenstein Journalism Award recognizes Buckley’s exemplary reporting on societal, cultural, political, foreign policy, and security issues in China and Taiwan.

Date Label
Display Hero Image Wide (1320px)
No
Paragraphs

This report, edited by Oriana Skylar Mastro, examines how the assertiveness of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has escalated tensions in the Indo-Pacific, leading to dangerous encounters with key regional players, and evaluates how China’s actions have influenced countries’ strategic planning and deterrence postures.

The report includes an introduction by Mastro, titled "Close Encounters with the PLA: Regional Experiences and Implications for Deterrence."

Executive Summary
 

Military ships in the South China Sea on a cover of an NBR report.

MAIN ARGUMENT
The significant transformation of the PLA due to Chinese military modernization efforts over the past 25 years has led to a shift in the strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific region. With a 790% increase in defense spending from 1992 to 2020, the PLA has become one of the world’s most advanced militaries. Such military modernization, coupled with increasingly assertive behavior, has led to more frequent and dangerous encounters between the PLA and the militaries of countries across the Indo-Pacific. These interactions have heightened tensions, with specific incidents emphasizing the risk of miscalculations that could escalate into major conflicts. Through case studies on Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, this report aims to understand the PLA’s strategic calculus on escalation, assessing the potential for conflict in the region and exploring shared threat perceptions, regional responses, and implications for deterrence.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

  • To effectively counter Chinese aggression, it is crucial that policy approaches are both clear and consistent, along with a robust active deterrence strategy across different administrations.
  • Expanding security cooperation with other nations and strengthening partnerships with the U.S. and like-minded countries are important to strengthening regional security and deterring potential threats from China.
  • Military deterrence needs to be balanced with diplomatic engagements, such as summit diplomacy, to reduce tensions and stabilize relations without compromising security.
  • Strengthening military deterrence through modernization is key, which includes focusing on asymmetric warfare, adopting a firm stance on disputes, increasing domestic defense manufacturing, and building strong international partnerships.
All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Reports
Publication Date
Subtitle

Perspectives on China’s Military and Implications for Regional Security

Journal Publisher
National Bureau of Asian Research
Authors
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Number
NBR Special Report 108
Authors
Noa Ronkin
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

In recent years, China's military modernization and assertive actions have led to more frequent and dangerous encounters between the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the militaries of key regional players in the Indo-Pacific. Each encounter heightens the chance of a military conflict in the region. A new report published by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) assesses the PLA’s strategic thinking on escalation control, analyzing the potential for conflict in the region and exploring regional responses and implications for deterrence.

Military ships in the South China Sea on a cover of an NBR report.

Edited by Chinese military expert Oriana Skylar Mastro, a center fellow at APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the report, "Encounters and Escalation in the Indo-Pacific: Perspectives on China’s Military and Implications for Regional Security," comprises six essays, each detailing an encounter with the PLA. These case studies include China’s maritime disputes with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam and its increasingly aggressive military activities vis-à-vis Australia, India, and Taiwan.

The authors of the essays are current and former practitioners with insight into their government’s experiences and thinking. Their assessments emphasize the need for Asia-Pacific countries to reevaluate their defense capabilities and adopt clear and consistent policy approaches to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape in the region.


Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive updates on our experts’ research and publications >

There is a consensus among the authors of this report that China harbors problematic intentions and is using increasingly aggressive and risk-acceptant tactics to accomplish its goals.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

Tactics, Intentions, and Shared Threat Perceptions

As the PLA adopts a more assertive approach beyond its maritime boundaries, nations across the Indo-Pacific region have increasingly experienced perilous encounters with the Chinese military. For example, the PLA's intensifying aggression around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea led to several incidents of maritime tension with the Philippines. Likewise, a Chinese fighter aircraft intercepted an Australian surveillance aircraft during its routine activity in international airspace over the South China Sea, posing a safety risk to the Australian aircraft and its crew.

The authors of the six case studies in the NBR report agree "that China harbors problematic intentions and is using increasingly aggressive and risk-acceptant tactics to accomplish its goals." While they show that China uses different tactics in different situations and differ in their evaluations of the most troublesome tactics for their respective countries, their analyses share several common themes, which Mastro reviews in her introduction to the report, titled "Close Encounters with the PLA: Regional Experiences and Implications for Deterrence."

First, “China doctrinally does not take any responsibility for the deterioration in the strategic environment,” writes Mastro. “All six case studies mention China’s tendency to publicly blame the other country for whatever crisis unfolded.”

China also sees crises as opportunities, Mastro explains, and most case studies indicate that the crises at stake were deliberate acts of PLA escalation. All case studies also reflect Chinese strategic thinking on deterrence as serving dual purposes: firstly, to discourage adversaries from certain actions, and secondly, to influence their behavior in line with the deterrer's intentions, ultimately requiring them to comply with the deterrer's preferences.

Across all nations studied in this report, there is a recognized need for partnership with and support from the United States and other like-minded countries to effectively address security concerns and deter potential threats from China.
Oriana Skylar Mastro

Another common theme is that the PLA's assertive actions have prompted all six nations studied in the report to boost security cooperation with the United States and other regional powers, albeit to varying extents. For example, in addition to enhancing its strategic partnership with the United States, India has enhanced its defense ties with the two other Quad members (Japan and Australia) and regional partners such as Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines.

Moreover, based on their encounters with the PLA, almost all regional players have concluded that strengthening their military capabilities will discourage Chinese aggressive behavior in the future, Mastro says, noting that “changes in defense posture have perhaps been the most drastic in Japan.”

Policy Implications

The report's case studies offer policy recommendations for deterring China, emphasizing the importance of a consistent approach that includes strengthening deterrence capabilities through military modernization, firm stances on border disputes, and close security cooperation with the United States, its allies, and other like-minded nations. While there is consensus that military deterrence needs to be balanced with diplomatic engagements to reduce tensions, each regional player views the effectiveness of diplomacy and cooperation with China differently.

“Ultimately,” Mastro concludes, “the path forward for maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region requires a cohesive strategy that prioritizes long-term security interests, demonstrating the essential role of international cooperation and the strategic interplay between military readiness and diplomatic efforts in navigating China’s aggression.”


Learn more about the report and download Mastro’s introductory essay > 

Read More

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) accompanies Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) to view an honor guard during a welcoming ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People on June 25, 2016 in Beijing.
News

Deciphering the Nature of the Sino-Russian Military Alignment

A study by Oriana Skylar Mastro, published in the journal Security Studies, offers a novel framework for understanding great power military alignment, reveals the nuances of military cooperation between China and Russia, and dissects its implications for global security.
Deciphering the Nature of the Sino-Russian Military Alignment
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin
Commentary

The Next Tripartite Pact?

China, Russia, and North Korea’s New Team Is Not Built to Last
The Next Tripartite Pact?
Conference participants gather on stage for a group photo at the Innovate Taiwan conference
News

APARC Launches New Taiwan Program, Igniting Dialogue on Taiwan’s Future

The Taiwan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center will serve as a Stanford hub and catalyst for multidisciplinary research and teaching about contemporary Taiwan. The program’s inaugural conference convened industry leaders, scholars, and students to examine Taiwan’s challenges and opportunities.
APARC Launches New Taiwan Program, Igniting Dialogue on Taiwan’s Future
Hero Image
A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at a Philippine Navy chartered vessel in the South China Sea
A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at Unaizah, a Philippine Navy chartered vessel conducting a routine resupply mission to troops stationed aboard BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded Navy ship that serves as the country's outpost in Second Thomas Shoal, on March 5, 2024, in the South China Sea. Photo credit: Ezra Acayan/ Getty Images.
All News button
1
Subtitle

Through case studies on the People's Liberation Army’s close encounters with the militaries of Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, a new National Bureau of Asian Research report edited by Oriana Skylar Mastro assesses the strategic calculus behind the PLA's actions and implications for regional conflict and deterrence.

Authors
Michael Breger
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

On May 2, 2024, Stanford University's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) marked the inauguration of its new Taiwan Program at the conference Innovate Taiwan: Shaping the Future of a Postindustrial Society. The program will produce policy-relevant research to tackle the challenges facing Taiwan’s economy and society in a new era of global relations. It will also prepare the next generation of students to become experts on Taiwan and foster interactions between the Stanford community and Taiwanese stakeholders.

The program’s inaugural conference reflected this triadic mission. It gathered leading industry and academic experts from the United States and Taiwan with Stanford students to engage in diverse panel discussions. The all-day event saw a high turnout of attendees from Stanford and the broader community, including alumni and stakeholders from Taiwan.

Stanford President Richard Saller congratulated the program's establishment, noting it will advance Stanford as a global university by producing scholarship that transcends academic boundaries. “The program will do what Stanford does best — provide a cross-disciplinary, university-wide hub, where scholars from across campus and beyond can convene to study contemporary Taiwan,” said Saller. He described Taiwan as a beacon of democracy and the program’s establishment as demonstrating the university’s belief in the importance of the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and a professor of sociology in the School of Humanities and Sciences, remarked that students and community members have increasingly expressed interest in studying Taiwan. “This is an opportune time to launch a Taiwan program with a comprehensive focus on economic, social, cultural, educational, and health-related matters,” he said. Shin underscored the program’s commitment to inspire new generations of Stanford students to engage with Taiwan.

Want to receive email newsletters from the Taiwan Program? Sign up for our Taiwan Update >


Taiwan's Evolving Cultural Landscape

The first panel delved into contemporary research on Taiwan's societal and cultural trends and reflected on the nature of Taiwan studies. Pei-Chia Lan, a professor of sociology at National Taiwan University, shared findings from her research into the emerging formation of second-generation identity in Taiwan. She explained that an influx of immigrants and their bicultural children are transforming Taiwan’s self-perceived racial and ethnic homogeneity. For Lan, “Migration provides a critical lens for investigating Taiwan's history, transformation, and globalized development.”

Jing Tsu, Yale University’s Jonathan D. Spence Chair Professor of Comparative Literature & East Asian Languages and Literatures, offered a captivating account of the increasing appeal of Taiwan’s folk religious tradition exemplified in Mazu pilgrimages honoring the Goddess of the Sea or Taiwan’s “heavenly mother.” Tsu positioned the phenomenon of Mazu worship relative to Taiwanese identity, framing Taiwan's cultural heritage within a global context.

Ruo-Fan Liu, a PhD candidate in sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and incoming postdoctoral fellow at APARC, zoomed out from her research on education and culture in Taiwan to a larger vision of Taiwan studies in North America. She outlined three strategies to propel the field forward: enhancing data accessibility, bolstering theorizing capability, and expanding transnational and global comparisons. APARC Deputy Director and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui moderated the conversation, integrating the diverse perspectives into a discussion of Taiwan's societal milieu.

Technology, Innovation, and Economic Growth

The conference emphasized Taiwan's success as a modernization exemplar while addressing its challenges on the journey toward a sustainable economic future.

The second panel examined Taiwan's strides in healthcare innovation and biotechnological advancements, with industry leaders offering glimpses into the transformative potential of AI-driven healthcare solutions. Ted Chang, CTO of Quanta Computer, Bobby Sheng, Group CEO of Bora Pharmaceuticals, and C. Jason Wang, Stanford’s LCY Tan Lan Lee Professor of Pediatrics and Health Policy, reflected on the convergence of technology and healthcare delivery and the new era it heralds for personalized medicine and digital health solutions. APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston moderated the discussion, prompting the panelists to consider questions of equitable access and trust in healthcare technology.

Larry Diamond, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, led a following conversation on the strategic imperatives for Taiwan's economic future and global positioning. Four experts joined him: Steve Chen, co-founder of YouTube, Jason Hsu, former legislator of the Legislative Yuan Taiwan, investment banker CY Huang, founder and president of FCC Partners, and digital commerce leader Rose Tsou, a former executive at Verizon Media, MTV, and Yahoo.

The panelists agreed that Taiwan must address its strained cross-Strait relations, develop a more diversified economy, move beyond sole reliance on semiconductors, and modify its energy policy to meet growing electricity demand and the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Another consensus emerged about the need for government intervention to create an environment more conducive to entrepreneurship and global talent. Chen, who relocated his family to Taiwan in 2019 after two decades in Silicon Valley, shared his efforts in cultivating the island's startup ecosystem and experience being the inaugural recipient of the Taiwan Gold Card Visa, issued by the Taiwanese government to attract foreign talent for residence and employment.

Taiwanese Identity and Taiwan Studies at Stanford

Highlighting the role of youth and community engagement, the conference also included a student panel centered on Taiwanese identity and Taiwan studies on campus. Second-year student in Management Science and Engineering Tiffany Chang, who is also a pageant queen and research assistant at APARC, shared her introspective journey of self-discovery through her experience becoming Miss Asia USA, representing the Taiwanese community, and acting as an ambassador for Asian communities at large.

Carissa Cheng, a third-year student in International Relations, described her advocacy for community cohesion via Stanford’s Taiwanese Cultural Society. Yi-Ting Chung, a PhD candidate in the Department of History, recounted her experience designing and teaching a course in Taiwanese history. She argued that Taiwanese history merits being taught in a dedicated history class rather than as a subset of Chinese or Japanese history. ”The existence of a Taiwanese history class at Stanford is a statement and a way for students to have a vested interest in Taiwan,” she said. Third-year student in international Relations Marco Widodo moderated the dynamic conversation.

Marked by multidisciplinary inquiry and cross-cultural exchange, the conference ignited dialogue on Taiwan’s future and generated enthusiasm for collaboration on building a leading program on Taiwan at Stanford.


Media coverage of the "Innovate Taiwan" conference is available via:

Central News Agency >
Radio Taiwan International >

Read More

TASD 2024
News

Pathways to Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions at the 2024 Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue

The Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue, part of a joint initiative by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future, convened at the State Palace in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, to stimulate cooperative action towards the cultivation of peace, justice, and strong institutions as outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 16 in the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Pathways to Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions at the 2024 Trans-Altai Sustainability Dialogue
Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) accompanies Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) to view an honor guard during a welcoming ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People on June 25, 2016 in Beijing.
News

Deciphering the Nature of the Sino-Russian Military Alignment

A study by Oriana Skylar Mastro, published in the journal Security Studies, offers a novel framework for understanding great power military alignment, reveals the nuances of military cooperation between China and Russia, and dissects its implications for global security.
Deciphering the Nature of the Sino-Russian Military Alignment
Portrait of Kiyoteru Tsutsui and a silhouette of the Toyko Syline at night.
News

Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer

The Asahi Shimbun is publishing a series highlighting the Stanford Japan Barometer, a periodic public opinion survey co-developed by Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui and Dartmouth College political scientist Charles Crabtree, which unveils nuanced preferences and evolving attitudes of the Japanese public on political, economic, and social issues.
Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer
Hero Image
Conference participants gather on stage for a group photo at the Innovate Taiwan conference
Participants gather for a group photo at the Innovate Taiwan conference, marking the launch of the Taiwan Program at Shorenstein APARC [Photo Credit: Rod Searcey] | Rod Searcey
All News button
1
Subtitle

The Taiwan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center will serve as a Stanford hub and catalyst for multidisciplinary research and teaching about contemporary Taiwan. The program’s inaugural conference convened industry leaders, scholars, and students to examine Taiwan’s challenges and opportunities.

Date Label
Authors
Noa Ronkin
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Stanford University's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) proudly announces the launch of the Taiwan Program, which will serve as an interdisciplinary research and education hub on contemporary Taiwan. The program will investigate Taiwan’s strides as a modernization exemplar and the challenges its economy and society face in seeking to drive dynamism and growth in an era marked by shifting global relations. On May 2, 2024, APARC will host the program’s inaugural conference, Innovate Taiwan: Shaping the Future of a Postindustrial Society. Registration for the conference is now open.

Mirroring the dilemmas of other postindustrial societies, Taiwan today finds itself pressed by multiple imperatives. These include the need to generate novel economic competitiveness models amid rapid technological advancement and declining multilateral cooperation, address changing demographic realities, foster cultural diversity and tolerance, fulfill the action pathway to achieve net-zero emissions, and create the institutional and policy conditions to enable these adaptations. The Taiwan Program will explore how Taiwan can effectively address these challenges and seize the opportunities they afford for it to remain at the forefront of vibrancy and progress in the 21st century. 

Housed within APARC, part of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), the Taiwan Program will pursue a mission encompassing research endeavors, education and learning initiatives, and exchange opportunities. By investing in these three core areas, the program will produce interdisciplinary, policy-relevant research to understand and address Taiwan’s challenges of economic, social, technological, environmental, and institutional adaptation in the coming decades; prepare the next generation of students to become experts on Taiwan; and facilitate meaningful interactions between Stanford faculty, researchers, and students with their Taiwanese counterparts and with policy experts, industry leaders, and civil society stakeholders in Taiwan. In all these areas, the program will leverage APARC’s expertise and networks and build upon the center’s strong track record of academic research and policy engagement with East Asia. This includes leveraging the proven model and rich experience of APARC’s esteemed programs on contemporary China, Japan, and Korea.

We aim to foster research-practice partnerships between the United States and Taiwan while contributing to Taiwan's long-term development.
Gi-Wook Shin
APARC Director

"The Taiwan Program underscores our commitment to deepening understanding of and engagement with Taiwan,” said Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and director of APARC. “We aim to foster research-practice partnerships between the United States and Taiwan while contributing to Taiwan's long-term development," added Shin, who is also a professor of sociology, a senior fellow at FSI, and director of the Korea Program at APARC.

The program will be led by a distinguished scholar of contemporary Taiwan to be recruited by the university in an international search. APARC will soon announce its inaugural postdoctoral fellow on contemporary Taiwan, who will help organize the program’s activities in the next academic year. The new program is made possible thanks to tremendous support from several Stanford donors who care deeply about Taiwan’s role on the global stage and U.S.-Taiwan relations. 

"We are profoundly grateful to our supporters for their partnership and commitment to advancing understanding of Taiwan and the U.S.-Taiwan relationship in this pivotal Asia-Pacific region," noted Shin. “This new investment will help us establish a world-leading program on Taiwan at Stanford.”

To inaugurate the new program, APARC will host the conference "Innovate Taiwan: Shaping the Future of a Postindustrial Society." Held on May 2 at the Bechtel Conference Center in Encina Hall, this full-day event will convene esteemed academic and industry leaders to engage in panel discussions covering topics such as migration, culture, and societal trends; health policy and biotechnology; economic growth and innovation; and the dynamics of domestic and international Taiwanese industries. Visit the conference webpage to learn more and register to attend in person.

Read More

Robert Carlin, Siegfried Hecker, and Victor Cha
News

A Perilous Crossroads: Deciphering North Korea's Escalating Belligerence

Amid North Korea’s increasing provocations, APARC’s Korea Program hosted three experts — Robert Carlin, Victor Cha, and Siegfried Hecker — to consider whether Pyongyang plans to go to war.
A Perilous Crossroads: Deciphering North Korea's Escalating Belligerence
Portrait of Kiyoteru Tsutsui and a silhouette of the Toyko Syline at night.
News

Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer

The Asahi Shimbun is publishing a series highlighting the Stanford Japan Barometer, a periodic public opinion survey co-developed by Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui and Dartmouth College political scientist Charles Crabtree, which unveils nuanced preferences and evolving attitudes of the Japanese public on political, economic, and social issues.
Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer
Panelists discuss the US-Japan alliance
News

A Pivotal Partnership: The U.S.-Japan Alliance, Deterrence, and the Future of Taiwan

A panel discussion co-hosted by Shorenstein APARC and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA examined the key dynamics at play in the unfolding regional competition over power, influence, and the fate of Taiwan.
A Pivotal Partnership: The U.S.-Japan Alliance, Deterrence, and the Future of Taiwan
Hero Image
Taipei skyline at dawn and logo of the Taiwan Program at Shorenstein APARC.
All News button
1
Subtitle

The program will explore policy-relevant approaches to address Taiwan’s contemporary economic and societal challenges and advance U.S.-Taiwan partnerships.

Date Label
-
Taiwan skyline at dawn with logo of the Taiwan Program and text about the conference "Innovate Taiwan: Shaping the Future of a Postindustrial Society"

*Please note, registration for this event has closed.*

A conference to inaugurate the Taiwan Program at Shorenstein APARC

As Taiwan seeks to stimulate vitality and progress in an era defined by shifting global dynamics, it grapples with a myriad of challenges akin to those that other postindustrial societies face. How can Taiwan innovate its economic competitiveness and refashion collaboration networks amid rapid technological transformations and diminishing globalization? What strategies can it employ to adapt to vast demographic changes? How can it cultivate cultural diversity?

Join us in person to discuss these questions and more at a full-day conference celebrating the launch of the new Taiwan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Hear from esteemed academic and industry leaders as they delve into topics including demography and migration, societal trends, health policy and biotechnology, economic growth and innovation, and the dynamics of domestic and international Taiwanese industries. 

Watch this space for updates on the agenda and confirmed speakers.

9:00 - 9:15 a.m.
Opening Session

Opening remarks

Gi-Wook Shin
Director of Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Congratulatory remarks

Richard Saller
President of Stanford University


9:15-10:45 a.m.
Panel 1: Migration, Culture, and Societal Trends        
    
Panelists 

Pei-Chia Lan
Distinguished Professor of Sociology, National Taiwan University

Ruo-Fan Liu
Ph.D. Candidate at University of Wisconsin-Madison
Incoming Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Jing Tsu
Jonathan D. Spence Chair Professor of Comparative Literature & East Asian Languages and Literatures, Yale University

Moderator
Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Deputy Director of Shorenstein APARC and Director of the Japan Program, Stanford University


10:45-11:00 a.m.
Coffee and Tea Break


11:00 a.m.-12:30 p.m.
Panel 2: Health Policy and Biotechnology

Panelists 

Ted Chang
CTO of Quanta Computer

Bobby Sheng
Group CEO and Chairman of Bora Pharmaceuticals

C. Jason Wang
Director of the Center for Policy, Outcomes and Prevention
LCY Tan Lan Lee Professor of Pediatrics and Health Policy, Stanford University

Moderator
Karen Eggleston
Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


12:30-2:00 p.m. 
Lunch Break


2:00-3:00 p.m.  
Panel 3: Taiwan at Stanford and Beyond

Panelists 

Tiffany Chang
Undergraduate Student in Management Science and Engineering
Research Assistant at Shorenstein APARC , Stanford University

Carissa Cheng
Undergraduate Student in International Relations, Stanford University

Yi-Ting Chung
Ph.D. Student in History, Stanford University

Moderator
Marco Widodo
Undergraduate Student in Political Science, Stanford University


3:00-3:30 p.m. 
Coffee and Tea Break


3:30-5:00 p.m.    
Panel 4:  Economic Growth and Innovation

Panelists

Steve Chen
Co-Founder of YouTube and Taiwan Gold Card Holder #1

Jason Hsu
Edward Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School
Former Legislator of the Legislative Yuan Taiwan

CY Huang
Founder and President of FCC Partners

Rose Tsou
Former Head of Verizon Media International and E-Commerce
Former Regional Head of Yahoo APAC
Former General Manager of MTV Taiwan

Moderator
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University


5:00 - 5:30 p.m.    
Social Networking Session
 

Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall, First floor, Central, S150
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Conferences
Authors
Oriana Skylar Mastro
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

This commentary originally appeared in The New York Times.


For a half-century, America has avoided war with China over Taiwan largely through a delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance.

That equilibrium has been upset. China is building up and flexing its military power; hostile rhetoric emanates from both Beijing and Washington. War seems likelier each day.

It’s not too late to restore the kind of balance that helped to keep the peace for decades, but it will require taking steps to ease China’s concerns. This will be difficult because of Chinese intransigence and the overheated atmosphere prevailing in Washington. But it is worth the political risk if it prevents war.

Deterrence came in the form of the implied use of U.S. military force to thwart a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Reassurance was provided by the understanding that the United States would not intrude on decisions regarding Taiwan’s eventual political status.

The United States and its regional allies must continue to create a robust military deterrence. But U.S. leaders and politicians also need to keep in mind the power of reassurance, try to understand China’s deep sensitivities about Taiwan and should recommit — clearly and unequivocally — to the idea that only China and Taiwan can work out their political differences, a stance that remains official U.S. policy.

During the Cold War, Beijing and Washington signed a series of communiqués related to Taiwan. One of them said the United States “reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.” This and other wording was deliberately ambiguous, but it was accepted by all sides as a commitment to avoid rocking the boat. China still views this arrangement as binding.

To be clear, it was China that began rocking the boat first.

Since 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected president of Taiwan (succeeding a more China-friendly administration), Xi Jinping has repeatedly brandished China’s military power with large-scale military exercises and other pressure tactics apparently meant to discourage independence sentiment on Taiwan.

U.S. political figures have rightly responded with rhetorical support for democratic Taiwan, by supplying it with weapons and by strengthening the U.S. military presence in the region. But the American reaction is also pouring fuel on the fire.

Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof that the United States is moving away from past ambiguity
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Center Fellow

I have worked on U.S. defense strategy in various military roles for more than a decade. I recently traveled to Beijing, where I met with Chinese government and military officials, leading academics and experts from Communist Party-affiliated think tanks. During these talks it was clear that Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof that the United States is moving away from past ambiguity and toward supporting Taiwan’s de facto independence.

They have plenty of evidence to point to.

In December 2016, Donald Trump became the first U.S. president or president-elect since the normalization of China-U.S. relations in 1979 to speak directly with a Taiwanese leader, when Ms. Tsai called to congratulate him on his election victory. President Biden has, on four occasions, contradicted the U.S. policy of ambiguity by saying we would support Taiwan militarily if China attacked. The number of U.S. Congress members visiting Taiwan — which China views as overt support for the island’s independence — reached a decade high last year, including an August 2022 trip by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House at the time and the highest-ranking U.S. official travel to Taiwan since the 1990s. That has continued this year: In June a nine-member congressional delegation, the largest in years, arrived in Taipei.

Provocative legislation has not helped. Last year the Taiwan Policy Act, which articulated support for Taiwan’s role in international organizations, was introduced in the Senate, and in July of this year the House passed a similar act. House Republicans introduced a motion in January to recognize Taiwan as an independent country.

For now, lingering doubts over Chinese military capabilities and the specter of U.S. and allied retaliation are enough to restrain Mr. Xi
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Center Fellow

Actions like these put great pressure on Mr. Xi, who won’t tolerate going down in history as the Chinese leader to have lost Taiwan. That would be seen in Beijing as an existential threat, potentially fueling separatist sentiment in restive regions like Tibet and Xinjiang.

For now, lingering doubts over Chinese military capabilities and the specter of U.S. and allied retaliation are enough to restrain Mr. Xi. But if he concludes that the United States has broken, once and for all, from its previous position on Taiwan and is bent on thwarting unification, he may feel that he must act militarily. The United States might be able to build the necessary military power in the region to deter a Chinese war of choice. But the level of dominance needed to stop Mr. Xi from launching a war he sees as necessary might be impossible to achieve.

Reassuring China would require Mr. Biden to reiterate that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence or oppose the island’s peaceful unification with China and that, ultimately, Taiwan’s fate is up to Taipei and Beijing. It would mean moving away from attempts to create international space for Taiwan and chastising Beijing when it pulls away Taipei’s diplomatic partners. The White House would also need to use what leverage it has to discourage members of Congress from visiting Taiwan and threaten to veto provocative legislation.

There would doubtless be blowback in Washington and Taipei, and Mr. Xi may already have made up his mind to seize Taiwan, regardless of the U.S. stance. But a politically neutral position on Taiwan is what the United States has followed for decades. Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and George H.W. and George W. Bush advocated peaceful dialogue between Taipei and Beijing to resolve their differences.

There also are longer-term repercussions to consider: If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals. But if a pathway remains for China to eventually convince Taiwan’s people — through inducements or pressure — that it is in their interest to peacefully unify, then that may be a China that we can live with.

In the best-case scenario, the United States and China would reach a high-level agreement, a new communiqué, in which Washington reiterates its longstanding political neutrality and China commits to dialing back its military threats. This would avert war while giving China political space to work toward peaceful unification. That might mean using its clout to isolate Taiwan and eventually convince the island’s people that it should strike a deal with Beijing. But it isn’t Washington’s place to prevent the unification of the two sides — only to ensure that doesn’t happen through military force or coercion.

A war between the United States and China over Taiwan could be the most brutal since World War II. As politically difficult as it may be, U.S. leaders have a duty to try to prevent conflict, and that means speaking more softly but carrying a big stick.

Read More

Stanford architectural columns in the Main Quad with text about APARC's Fall 2024 fellowships on contemporary Taiwan
News

Stanford’s Asia-Pacific Research Center Invites Applications for Fall 2024 Postdoctoral and Visiting Scholar Positions on Contemporary Taiwan

One postdoctoral fellow position and one visiting scholar position beginning in Autumn Quarter 2024 are available to scholars and professionals interested in interdisciplinary research on contemporary Taiwan.
Stanford’s Asia-Pacific Research Center Invites Applications for Fall 2024 Postdoctoral and Visiting Scholar Positions on Contemporary Taiwan
Military vehicles carrying DF-26 ballistic missiles drive through Tiananmen Square during a military parade in Beijing.
News

What Chinese Nuclear Modernization Means for U.S. Deterrence Strategy

Despite changes in China’s forces and the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the United States does not need to increase the numbers of its nuclear arsenal, argues Oriana Skylar Mastro in a new report.
What Chinese Nuclear Modernization Means for U.S. Deterrence Strategy
7th fleet cruisers transit Taiwan strait
Commentary

Can the U.S. Deter China? Lessons from Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine

In the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, how are Chinese strategists and scholars assessing U.S. deterrence strategy? What are the implications for Taiwan? Leading foreign affairs expert Oriana Skylar Mastro analyzes a newly translated article by a senior Chinese scholar which concludes that while the United States failed to deter Putin’s aggression, its actions in Ukraine are nonetheless impacting Beijing’s foreign policy calculations.
Can the U.S. Deter China? Lessons from Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine
Hero Image
U.S. Seaman Xi Chan stands lookout on the flight deck as the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) transits the Taiwan Strait during routine underway operations.
Seaman Xi Chan stands lookout on the flight deck as the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG 52) transits the Taiwan Strait during routine underway operations. | U.S. Navy
All News button
1
Subtitle

For a half-century, America has avoided war with China over Taiwan largely through a delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance.

Date Label
Authors
Noa Ronkin
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) invites applications for a postdoctoral fellowship and a visiting scholar position on contemporary Taiwan to begin in Autumn Quarter 2024. These new positions are part of APARC’s expansion of its work on Taiwan, focusing particularly on its economy, society, and culture in a new era of global relations and “postindustrial” development.

About the Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Taiwan


The postdoctoral fellow participates in APARC’s research and engagement activities while undertaking original research on contemporary Taiwan. We welcome fellowship applications from candidates studying issues related to how Taiwan can meet the challenges and opportunities of economic, social, technological, environmental, and institutional adaptation in the coming decades, using a variety of disciplines including the social sciences, public policy, and business.

The postdoctoral fellowship appointment begins in Autumn Quarter 2024 and is for one academic year, with a possibility of extension contingent on satisfactory performance and funding.

The fellowship is limited to recent PhDs: applicants cannot be more than three years past the awarding of their doctoral degree when the fellowship starts. They must have degree conferral and official approval/certification no later than June 30 prior to the fellowship start date (that is, no later than June 30, 2024, for 2024-25 fellowships starting in autumn 2024).

Postdoctoral fellows are required to be in residence for the duration of the appointment and to take part in APARC activities throughout the academic year. Fellows are also expected to support programmatic needs such as colloquiums and participate in research collaboration through the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL). The postdoctoral fellowship is a 10-month appointment with a salary of approximately $65,000 (annual rate of $78,000), or commensurate with Stanford policy and set minimums, plus up to $3,000 for research expenses.

The application deadline is January 1, 2024. Read on for the application guidelines.

Apply for the Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Taiwan


Interested candidates must follow these requirements:

I. Fill out the online application form;

II. Upload the following materials to the online form (in English, PDF format):

  • Curriculum vitae;
  • A short research statement (not to exceed five typed pages, double-spaced) that describes the research and writing to be undertaken during the fellowship period, as well as the proposed publishable product.

III. Submit the completed application form along with the required materials;

IV. Submit Letters of Recommendation: 
Email THREE (3) letters of recommendation (in PDF format) to taiwanprogramfellowship@stanford.edu. We will accept official letters of recommendation from the applicant, a dossier service, or directly from references.

All applications must be received by 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on Monday, January 1, 2024.

Once we have received all components of your application, including three recommendations, we will send you an email confirming the completion of your application. If you have not received this email, you may send an email checking your application status. 

Note: Please be advised that Stanford University will close for winter break from December 21, 2023, through January 3, 2024, and response time to inquiries during this period may be delayed.

About the Visiting Scholarship on Contemporary Taiwan


The visiting scholar on contemporary Taiwan will work collaboratively with APARC faculty and researchers, Stanford faculty, and students to conduct research related to how Taiwan can meet the challenges and opportunities of economic, social, technological, environmental, and institutional adaptation in the coming decades, using a variety of disciplines including the social sciences, public policy, and business.

The visiting scholar position is available to researchers and professionals with PhD degrees or substantial records of professional achievement related to contemporary Taiwan. Applicants must be visiting from and affiliated with an outside institution or organization and must be proficient in the English language. There is a preference for mid-career professionals with a strong research and publication record. Visiting fellows are selected on the basis of prior professional achievements and the quality of research and publication proposals.

The appointment begins in Autumn Quarter 2024 and is for one academic year. The visiting scholar will be offered $30,000 as a supplementary stipend.

Visiting scholars are required to be in residence for the duration of the appointment, take part in APARC activities throughout the academic year, and meet with collaborators and stakeholders as needed. They are also expected to support programmatic needs such as colloquiums and participate in research collaboration through the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL). Additional privileges include access to Stanford research facilities, the opportunity to audit relevant University lecture courses without a fee (subject to permission of the instructor), and the opportunity to participate in events at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and elsewhere on campus.

The center is still accepting applications for the 2024-2025 visiting fellowship. Read on for the application guidelines.

Apply for the Visiting Scholar Position on Contemporary Taiwan


I. Fill out the online application form;

II. Upload the following materials to the online form (in English, PDF format):

  • A formal letter of request containing a detailed proposal of the work to be carried out while in residency at APARC;
  • A formal and complete academic curriculum vitae, including a list of publications.

III. Submit the completed application form along with the required materials;

IV. Submit two (2) letters of reference. The letters of reference should be emailed to taiwanprogramfellowship@stanford.edu. The candidate’s legal name and email address must be included on top of each required document.


Contact

For questions about the application process for the postdoctoral fellowship and visiting scholar position, please contact Kristen Lee at taiwanprogramfellowship@stanford.edu

About APARC

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) addresses critical issues affecting the countries of Asia, their regional and global affairs, and U.S.-Asia relations. As Stanford University’s hub for the interdisciplinary study of contemporary Asia, we produce policy-relevant research, provide education and training to students, scholars, and practitioners, and strengthen dialogue and cooperation between counterparts in the Asia-Pacific and the United States. For more information, visit aparc.stanford.edu.

Stanford University is an equal opportunity employer, and we welcome applications from diverse backgrounds that would bring additional dimensions to the university's research and teaching missions. Diversity includes, but is not limited to, culture, socioeconomic background, race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, physical capabilities, and life experience.


More Fellowship Opportunities at APARC

APARC offers additional Fall 2024 Asia Studies Fellowships that are now open for applications. We have opportunities for both emerging scholars and established professionals:

Read More

Stanford architectural columns with text "Call for Applications: Fall 2024 Fellowships" and APARC logo.
News

APARC Invites Fall 2024 Asia Studies Fellowship Applications

The Center offers a suite of fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in fall quarter 2024. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.
APARC Invites Fall 2024 Asia Studies Fellowship Applications
Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab team members at Encina Hall, Stanford
News

New Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab to Tackle Emerging Challenges in Asia

Housed within the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the lab will pioneer evidence-based policy research to help Asian nations forge pathways to a future characterized by social, cultural, economic, and political maturity and advance U.S.-Asia dialogue.
New Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab to Tackle Emerging Challenges in Asia
A pair of Kawasaki P-3, part of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force
Commentary

The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness

The ultimate choice that must be made.
The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness
Hero Image
Stanford architectural columns in the Main Quad with text about APARC's Fall 2024 fellowships on contemporary Taiwan
All News button
1
Subtitle

One postdoctoral fellow position and one visiting scholar position beginning in Autumn Quarter 2024 are available to scholars and professionals interested in interdisciplinary research on contemporary Taiwan.

Date Label
Authors
Oriana Skylar Mastro
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs

This commentary first appeared as part of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Interpret:China series. 



Tensions at the Taiwan Strait are at an all-time high. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit marked the highest level of exchange between U.S. and Taiwanese officials since 1997. China used the visit as a pretext to conduct large-scale military exercises encircling the island, coupled with rhetoric about how it could successfully use force to unify if it decided to do so.

The dynamics between China and the United States over Taiwan are eerily like those laid out in Zuo Xiying’s balanced, informative article. Zuo accurately captures the U.S. deterrence strategy toward Russia before its invasion of Ukraine—highlighting key components such as threatening economic sanctions and international isolation, as well as providing training and equipment to Ukraine to enhance its ability to defend itself. But deterrence failed, the reasons (according to Zuo) being that the United States did not do more to reassure Russia of its peaceful intentions and that ultimately costs are difficult to calculate ahead of time. Once war broke out, as Zuo also points out, the United States escalated its involvement by providing military aid to Ukraine, which increased the costs of the war to Russia.

What does all this mean for U.S. deterrence strategy with respect to Taiwan? Zuo recognizes that “for China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict acts as a mirror. . . . China needs to not only study in depth how the United States deters and how it punishes Russia, but also to carefully analyze how Russia perceives the United States’ threats and to derive experience and lessons from therein.” But he leaves the reader wondering what those lessons are. He hints in his discussion on Ukraine that a U.S. strategy to build up Taiwan’s defenses is unlikely to deter China; however, he also indirectly suggests that China may be underestimating the costs of war. Successful deterrence, Zuo notes, “requires not only that the United States itself has powerful forces and strong resolve but that it can make the other side accurately feel the threat and have an accurate calculation of the costs and benefits. But the real world is complicated, and it is difficult to have both conditions present at once.” In other words, he thinks there is an intermediate step needed in a deterrence strategy. The United States has to not only issue a credible threat, but also make the other side accurately assess the costs and benefits of certain actions.

Zuo does not seem optimistic. He implies the United States needs to increase efforts to paint a more specific picture of what it would do if war broke out—but that, even if it did, the message still might not get through. The reader is left with an acute understanding that if there is war over Taiwan, failures in both Beijing and Washington will be to blame.

Read More

A pair of Kawasaki P-3, part of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force
Commentary

The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness

The ultimate choice that must be made.
The Cost of the "Taiwan Contingency" and Japan's Preparedness
Indonesian naval plane
Commentary

ASEAN Shouldn't Give Up on Idea of South China Sea Naval Drill

Indonesia can revive proposal with other interested members.
ASEAN Shouldn't Give Up on Idea of South China Sea Naval Drill
tsmc logo on taichung factory building
News

Semiconductors as a Catalyst for U.S.-Taiwan Cooperation and Commitment

U.S.-Taiwan semiconductor collaboration would allow the United States to deepen its commitment to Taiwans’ democracy and help deter threats to end it, argue Kharis Templemena and Oriana Skylar Mastro in a new report.
Semiconductors as a Catalyst for U.S.-Taiwan Cooperation and Commitment
Hero Image
7th fleet cruisers transit Taiwan strait
7th fleet cruisers transit Taiwan strait. | U.S. Navy (navy.mil)
All News button
1
Subtitle

In the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, how are Chinese strategists and scholars assessing U.S. deterrence strategy? What are the implications for Taiwan? Leading foreign affairs expert Oriana Skylar Mastro analyzes a newly translated article by a senior Chinese scholar which concludes that while the United States failed to deter Putin’s aggression, its actions in Ukraine are nonetheless impacting Beijing’s foreign policy calculations.

Date Label
Subscribe to Taiwan