Across Southeast Asia, millions of young people fall into a group researchers call "NEET," meaning they are neither working, studying, nor in training. Despite rapid growth in mobile internet access, high NEET rates persist across the region. This raises an important question: Is digital connectivity actually helping young people connect with economic opportunities?
This study examines data across 11 ASEAN countries over a decade (2014–2024) to analyze which aspects of mobile connectivity — infrastructure, affordability, digital skills, and available content — are most closely linked to youth NEET rates.
Key Findings:
Affordability matters. The cost of mobile data and devices is strongly associated with youth NEET rates, particularly for young women. Having access to a network is not enough if young people cannot afford to use it.
Digital skills help women enter the workforce. In countries where women have stronger foundational skills, female NEET rates tend to be lower.
Owning a phone does not equal opportunity. Mobile phone ownership was actually associated with higher NEET rates among young men. A likely explanation is that phones are primarily used for entertainment rather than for productive purposes.
Network coverage and connectivity speed showed no significant relationship with NEET rates. Infrastructure alone is not the answer.
The study concludes that governments and organizations need to move beyond building networks and focus on targeted interventions, like reducing costs, building skills, and developing locally relevant content, tailored where appropriate to gender-specific needs and local conditions.
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Japan’s Economic Security and the Semiconductor Industry
Southeast Asia’s megacities, long viewed as symbols of progress, are facing crises ranging from floods and ecological damage to displacement and widening inequality. Scholars of contemporary urban politics often attribute these predicaments to rapid globalization that originated in the mid-1980s. Yet APARC Visiting Scholar Gavin Shatkin argues they must be understood in the context of the Cold War era, when urban development agendas were molded by authoritarian regimes exerting political and economic control in the name of anti-communism.
Shatkin, an urban planner specializing in the political economy of urbanization and urban policy and planning in Southeast Asia, is a professor of public policy and architecture at Northeastern University. He recently completed his residency at APARC as a Lee Kong Chian National University of Singapore-Stanford fellow on Southeast Asia. Before heading to Singapore for the second part of his fellowship, he presented research from his new book project, which examines how U.S.-supported authoritarian regimes in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand shaped urban politics in three megalopolises —Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila — during the 1960s and 1970s, with consequences that reverberate today.
Political Violence as Foundation
Shatkin refers to the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s as Southeast Asia's "hot Cold War." During that time, in tandem with the armed conflict in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, political violence spread through Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, as the three countries witnessed the emergence of authoritarian regimes that cemented their rule by manipulating laws and institutions and deploying targeted, often extreme violence justified as necessary to combat communism.
In Indonesia, a U.S.-backed 1965 military coup, directed particularly at the Communist Party of Indonesia, led to the massacre of 500,000 to one million people, heralding General Suharto's 32-year authoritarian rule.
In the Philippines, amid leftist demonstrations and a communist insurgency, President Ferdinand Marcos declared martial law in 1972, marking the beginning of a decade defined by his administration’s widespread human rights violations, throughout which the United States continued to provide foreign aid to the country, considering Marcos a steadfast anti-communist ally.
And in Thailand, the imposition of the 1958 military dictatorship to counter communist threats and the 1976 crackdown by Thai police and right-wing paramilitaries against leftist protesters were pivotal points in establishing a royalist-nationalist model that defined "Thainess" (khwam pen thai) through loyalty to the monarchy, aligned with military power as well as American military aid and counter-insurgency policy guidance.
According to Shatkin, these were not isolated incidents but defining episodes of political violence that cemented authoritative oligarchic control over urban development. The explosive urbanization in Southeast Asian cities that followed in the mid-1980s must be read through the lens of this earlier period, when authoritarian regimes sought to exploit urban transformation to entrench political and economic power.
Urban development takes the form of the linking up of an archipelago of exclusive spaces that reinforces the spatial dichotomy and segregation characterizing these three cities.
Gavin Shatkin
Oligarchic Politics
The Suharto regime's approach to Jakarta as a source of profit exemplifies this dynamic. Shatkin explains how, between 1985 and 1998, Indonesia's National Land Agency distributed land permits for extensive urban development across the Jakarta metropolitan region to a small network of oligarchic conglomerates, such as the Salim Group. These crony corporations, allied with Suharto through family ties and political patronage, came to dominate Indonesia’s economy. Many of these same corporate interests continue to influence development agendas in Jakarta today, owning exclusive rights to purchase and develop permitted land.
The same pattern of successive waves of government expansion of metropolitan regions through infrastructure development and the distribution of land to selected major conglomerates has repeated itself in Manila and Bangkok, creating in-country profit centers for economic interests and what Shatkin calls “an archipelago of exclusive gated elite spaces” that reinforces spatial dichotomy and segregation as each of these megacities also experiences a housing crisis.
For example, Shatkin’s research in Metro Manila during the late 1990s and early 2000s revealed that approximately 40% of the population lived in dense informal settlements. A significant portion of these residents were employed in the nearby container port, yet their wages were insufficient to afford legal housing near their workplace. This discrepancy highlights a structural dilemma where low-wage workers are effectively compelled to occupy land illegally.
Environmental crises in the three urban giants are also entrenched in political and social structures rooted in oligarchic and authoritarian legacies of the Cold War era, argues Shatkin. Thus, increasingly devastating floods in Jakarta, Metro Manila, and Bangkok have less to do with sea level rise and far more with the rapid spread of impervious surfaces and the extraction of groundwater resulting from uncontrolled urban sprawl on converted watershed lands within a relatively weak regulatory environment. Moreover, flooding mitigation solutions, like Indonesia’s Great Garuda seawall project, have perpetuated the same pattern of land giveaways to major developers.
Movements on the ground evoke Cold War legacies in the way that they contest contemporary urban issues.
Gavin Shatkin
Lessons from Urban Social Movements
Crucially, Shatkin's research shows that Southeast Asian urban activists themselves frame their struggles through the lens of Cold War legacies. For example, when Jakarta residents along the Ciliwung River faced eviction for flood mitigation in 2015, they challenged the Jakarta administration and the Ciliwung-Cisadane Flood Control Office in court, arguing the eviction was based on a Cold War-era law drafted during counterinsurgency operations that had no place in democratic Indonesia. They partially won the case.
In a similar vein, Thailand's Red Shirt movement, representing working-class people from the northeast, deliberately protested on land owned by the Crown Property Bureau, using iconography that critiqued the military-monarchy-elite alliance forged during the Cold War.
An example from Manila is the 2001 mass protests by urban, low-income groups in defense of President Joseph Estrada, who was impeached for corruption. Their support can be interpreted as a reaction against “anti-poor” discourse that originated in the Ferdinand Marcos era. For the urban poor, Estrada represented a powerful counterweight to this legacy of elite disdain.
"We need to listen to these protest movements on the ground,” says Shatkin. They do not primarily critique globalization but rather contest entrenched oligarchy and state paternalism forged by Cold War political violence. Thus, an alternative framework for understanding debates in urban politics of Jakarta, Manila, and Bangkok is to view them not merely as capitals shaped by globalization but as Cold War frontline sites.
Beyond Southeast Asia
The implications of Shatkin’s theoretical framework extend beyond Jakarta, Metro Manila, and Bangkok, and even beyond Southeast Asia. It illuminates how periods of political upheaval create enduring social, economic, and environmental inequalities.
Moreover, these three urban giants, which produce outsized shares of their nations' GDP, rank among the world's largest cities. Their futures will not only affect Southeast Asia but also global urban development patterns. Shatkin's work suggests that this future cannot be charted without reckoning with the past.
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Envisioning Cities as Sites and Actors for Sustainable Development: Lessons from the 2025 Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue
Held in Manila, Philippines, the fourth annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue generated cross-sectoral insights on complex issues faced by cities and human settlements across the region, from housing and mobility to disaster resilience.
Theara Thun, APARC’s Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia, investigates how educational systems emerged in post-Khmer Rouge Cambodia within the broader context of national recovery and development.
Crisis at the Border, Competition in the Region: Thai Ambassador to the US Outlines ASEAN’s Four “T's:” Truce, Tariffs, Technology, and Transnational Crime
Speaking just one day after deadly clashes between Thailand and Cambodia reignited along their shared border, Thai Ambassador Dr. Suriya Chindawongse joined APARC’s Southeast Asia Program to explain how a fragile truce, shifting U.S. tariffs, emerging semiconductor opportunities, and a surge in online scam syndicates are shaping ASEAN’s future.
People walk through the flooded streets of Kampung Pulo in January 2014, in Jakarta, Indonesia. Severe flooding caused by heavy rains displaced over 40,000 people in northern Indonesia that year. | Oscar Siagian via Getty Images
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Gavin Shatkin, a Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford fellow on Southeast Asia at APARC, argues that prevailing urban development challenges in Jakarta, Metro Manila, and Bangkok stem from Cold War-era political and institutional structures imposed by U.S.-backed authoritarian, anti-communist regimes.
Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia, Fall 2025
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Ph.D.
Gavin Shatkin joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Visiting Scholar, Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia for the fall quarter of 2025. He is a Professor of Public Policy and Architecture at Northeastern University and an urban planner who works on the political economy of urbanization and urban planning and policy in Southeast Asia. His recent research has addressed: the role of state actors in the emergence across Asia of very large, developer-built ‘urban real estate megaprojects’; the implications of climate change induced flood risk for questions of property rights in coastal cities; and the geopolitical dynamics shaping the ‘infrastructure turn’ in urban policy in large Southeast Asian cities. His articles have been published in the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Urban Studies, Annals of the Association American Geographers, and numerous other journals in urban studies, planning, geography, and Asian studies. His most recent book is Cities for Profit: The Real Estate Turn in Asia’s Urban Politics (Cornell, 2017).
While at APARC, Gavin primarily focused on a book manuscript examining the implications of Cold War political legacies for contemporary urban development and planning in Southeast Asia. The book focuses on three megalopolises—Jakarta, Bangkok, and Metro Manila—that were the capital cities of nations that saw the consolidation (with American support) of authoritarian regimes during the period of Southeast Asia’s ‘hot Cold War’ during the 1960s and 1970s. The book examines the legacies of Cold War era law, policy, and political discourse in three areas: property rights and land management; the production of knowledge about urbanization; and definitions of urban citizenship and belonging.
Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia, 2025-2026
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PhD
Gaea Morales joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia for the 2025-2026 academic year. She is a political scientist specializing in global environmental governance, with a focus on the intersection of global and local climate politics in Southeast Asia. Gaea’s dissertation and book project, “Agents of Mass Construction: How Cities Localize through the Sustainable Development Goals,” asks why and how cities choose to translate global agreements to shape local policy, a process known as “localization.”
The project explains both the motivations and mechanisms by which cities localize environmental norms using case studies of three climate-vulnerable coastal capitals: Jakarta, Indonesia; Metro Manila, Philippines; and Bangkok, Thailand. Drawing from a global dataset of SDG localization and a year of fieldwork across Southeast Asia, the project illuminates how cities engage in a dynamic process of policy implementation that is both locally-driven and globally-informed.
At APARC, Gaea will revise her book project and adapt her dissertation into an article manuscript. She will also pursue further projects that cross-cut issues of local and global governance, the political economy of climate and the environment, and human rights. She is especially interested in topics of urban disaster resilience, inclusive climate finance, and environmental migration and security within and beyond the Asia-Pacific region.
Gaea completed her MA and PhD in Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California, and holds a BA in Diplomacy and World Affairs and French Studies from Occidental College.
Shorenstein APARC's annual report for the academic year 2023-24 is now available.
Learn about the research, publications, and events produced by the Center and its programs over the last academic year. Read the feature sections, which look at the historic meeting at Stanford between the leaders of Korea and Japan and the launch of the Center's new Taiwan Program; learn about the research our faculty and postdoctoral fellows engaged in, including a study on China's integration of urban-rural health insurance and the policy work done by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL); and catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, publications, and policy outreach. Download your copy or read it online below.
This report, edited by Oriana Skylar Mastro, examines how the assertiveness of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has escalated tensions in the Indo-Pacific, leading to dangerous encounters with key regional players, and evaluates how China’s actions have influenced countries’ strategic planning and deterrence postures.
MAIN ARGUMENT The significant transformation of the PLA due to Chinese military modernization efforts over the past 25 years has led to a shift in the strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific region. With a 790% increase in defense spending from 1992 to 2020, the PLA has become one of the world’s most advanced militaries. Such military modernization, coupled with increasingly assertive behavior, has led to more frequent and dangerous encounters between the PLA and the militaries of countries across the Indo-Pacific. These interactions have heightened tensions, with specific incidents emphasizing the risk of miscalculations that could escalate into major conflicts. Through case studies on Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, this report aims to understand the PLA’s strategic calculus on escalation, assessing the potential for conflict in the region and exploring shared threat perceptions, regional responses, and implications for deterrence.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
To effectively counter Chinese aggression, it is crucial that policy approaches are both clear and consistent, along with a robust active deterrence strategy across different administrations.
Expanding security cooperation with other nations and strengthening partnerships with the U.S. and like-minded countries are important to strengthening regional security and deterring potential threats from China.
Military deterrence needs to be balanced with diplomatic engagements, such as summit diplomacy, to reduce tensions and stabilize relations without compromising security.
Strengthening military deterrence through modernization is key, which includes focusing on asymmetric warfare, adopting a firm stance on disputes, increasing domestic defense manufacturing, and building strong international partnerships.
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Sino-Russian Military Alignment and Its Implications for Global Security
In recent years, China's military modernization and assertive actions have led to more frequent and dangerous encounters between the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the militaries of key regional players in the Indo-Pacific. Each encounter heightens the chance of a military conflict in the region. A new report published by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) assesses the PLA’s strategic thinking on escalation control, analyzing the potential for conflict in the region and exploring regional responses and implications for deterrence.
The authors of the essays are current and former practitioners with insight into their government’s experiences and thinking. Their assessments emphasize the need for Asia-Pacific countries to reevaluate their defense capabilities and adopt clear and consistent policy approaches to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape in the region.
There is a consensus among the authors of this report that China harbors problematic intentions and is using increasingly aggressive and risk-acceptant tactics to accomplish its goals.
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Tactics, Intentions, and Shared Threat Perceptions
As the PLA adopts a more assertive approach beyond its maritime boundaries, nations across the Indo-Pacific region have increasingly experienced perilous encounters with the Chinese military. For example, the PLA's intensifying aggression around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea led to several incidents of maritime tension with the Philippines. Likewise, a Chinese fighter aircraft intercepted an Australian surveillance aircraft during its routine activity in international airspace over the South China Sea, posing a safety risk to the Australian aircraft and its crew.
The authors of the six case studies in the NBR report agree "that China harbors problematic intentions and is using increasingly aggressive and risk-acceptant tactics to accomplish its goals." While they show that China uses different tactics in different situations and differ in their evaluations of the most troublesome tactics for their respective countries, their analyses share several common themes, which Mastro reviews in her introduction to the report, titled "Close Encounters with the PLA: Regional Experiences and Implications for Deterrence."
First, “China doctrinally does not take any responsibility for the deterioration in the strategic environment,” writes Mastro. “All six case studies mention China’s tendency to publicly blame the other country for whatever crisis unfolded.”
China also sees crises as opportunities, Mastro explains, and most case studies indicate that the crises at stake were deliberate acts of PLA escalation. All case studies also reflect Chinese strategic thinking on deterrence as serving dual purposes: firstly, to discourage adversaries from certain actions, and secondly, to influence their behavior in line with the deterrer's intentions, ultimately requiring them to comply with the deterrer's preferences.
Across all nations studied in this report, there is a recognized need for partnership with and support from the United States and other like-minded countries to effectively address security concerns and deter potential threats from China.
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Another common theme is that the PLA's assertive actions have prompted all six nations studied in the report to boost security cooperation with the United States and other regional powers, albeit to varying extents. For example, in addition to enhancing its strategic partnership with the United States, India has enhanced its defense ties with the two other Quad members (Japan and Australia) and regional partners such as Vietnam, Singapore, and the Philippines.
Moreover, based on their encounters with the PLA, almost all regional players have concluded that strengthening their military capabilities will discourage Chinese aggressive behavior in the future, Mastro says, noting that “changes in defense posture have perhaps been the most drastic in Japan.”
Policy Implications
The report's case studies offer policy recommendations for deterring China, emphasizing the importance of a consistent approach that includes strengthening deterrence capabilities through military modernization, firm stances on border disputes, and close security cooperation with the United States, its allies, and other like-minded nations. While there is consensus that military deterrence needs to be balanced with diplomatic engagements to reduce tensions, each regional player views the effectiveness of diplomacy and cooperation with China differently.
“Ultimately,” Mastro concludes, “the path forward for maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region requires a cohesive strategy that prioritizes long-term security interests, demonstrating the essential role of international cooperation and the strategic interplay between military readiness and diplomatic efforts in navigating China’s aggression.”
Mastro's research project "Chinese Maritime Ambitions" develops a rigorous framework for interpreting the nuances of China's intentions in the maritime domain and devising effective U.S. strategic responses.
Deciphering the Nature of the Sino-Russian Military Alignment
A study by Oriana Skylar Mastro, published in the journal Security Studies, offers a novel framework for understanding great power military alignment, reveals the nuances of military cooperation between China and Russia, and dissects its implications for global security.
APARC Launches New Taiwan Program, Igniting Dialogue on Taiwan’s Future
The Taiwan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center will serve as a Stanford hub and catalyst for multidisciplinary research and teaching about contemporary Taiwan. The program’s inaugural conference convened industry leaders, scholars, and students to examine Taiwan’s challenges and opportunities.
A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at Unaizah, a Philippine Navy chartered vessel conducting a routine resupply mission to troops stationed aboard BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded Navy ship that serves as the country's outpost in Second Thomas Shoal, on March 5, 2024, in the South China Sea. Photo credit: Ezra Acayan/ Getty Images.
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Through case studies on the People's Liberation Army’s close encounters with the militaries of Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam, a new National Bureau of Asian Research report edited by Oriana Skylar Mastro assesses the strategic calculus behind the PLA's actions and implications for regional conflict and deterrence.
In February 1986, Scot Marciel was driving home after midnight and went past what he assumed was just another protest near military facilities in downtown Manila. The gathering, less than a year into his first overseas assignment with the Foreign Service, turned out to be the early days of the Philippine People Power revolution, leading to the end of the Ferdinand Marcos regime. This was just one of several times during his 35-year career in the State Department that Marciel would find himself witnessing historic moments in Southeast Asia and in the U.S. relationship with the countries of the region.
That illustrious career includes being the first U.S. diplomat to work in Hanoi since the end of the Vietnam War and serving as the first U.S. ambassador for ASEAN Affairs and as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar.
Marciel, Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at FSI and affiliated with APARC, has distilled his experiences and observations into his new book, Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia (Shorenstein APARC/ Rowman & Littlefield, 2023). In it, he offers his on-the-ground account of the ups and downs of critical U.S. relationships in the region — focusing on the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia — and examines the role of ASEAN and China’s influence in Southeast Asia.
To mark the book’s release, we talked with Marciel about recent events in the region and his views on how the United States should approach Southeast Asian countries in the context of China’s efforts to sow closer ties with them. Watch the conversation:
A Return to the Philippines
The Philippines under President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos, Jr. is now allowing U.S. forces expanded access to four of its bases. Marciel, who first met Marcos, Jr. as the provincial governor of Ilocos Norte in 1985, expressed some surprise at the Philippine president’s rapid shift to strengthen the country’s alliance with the United States. He noted, however, that even in the last year of the Duterte presidency, which frequently was at odds with the United States, there was some recognition in the Philippines that the relationship with China wasn’t bearing the fruit that had been anticipated. Marciel also pointed out that the deal with the United States does not mean Marcos has abandoned China: he is still working on keeping the relationship with Beijing healthy and visiting Japan, another important partner.
Although there is some Philippine civil opposition to the renewed presence of U.S. forces, Marciel believes that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) will provide an opportunity for a “more modern and equal partnership,” and hopefully one that can supplant memories of the U.S. colonial history in the Philippines.
Southeast Asian Charm Competition?
As concern continues to rise about a possible invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China, some have questioned the effectiveness of the U.S. capability to compete with China, particularly in terms of a diplomatic offensive. Marciel responded to a recent New York Times article on U.S. and Chinese efforts to “woo” Indonesia. As China continues to seal trade deals in Southeast Asia, some of which are part of its Belt and Road Initiative, we asked whether the United States can compete with China’s free-flowing cash.
Marciel, taking a step back, cautions that “Indonesia is not a prize to be won,” and that we should not be “scoring diplomatic relations like a sporting event” when we look at improving ties with the countries of Southeast Asia. Indonesia, for example, has a long history with the Non-Aligned Movement, so while it attempts to attract foreign investment, it will resist aligning with any one major power. China tends to offer attractive investment packages with minimal conditions, but “you can’t always count on those investments to happen,” notes Marciel, and even when they do, there can be issues with corruption, as well as social and environmental consequences. The United States tries to put together investments that consider issues like labor and the environment, but Marciel believes that “sometimes we aim a little high” and the conditions make U.S. offerings less attractive.
[American diplomats] go to Southeast Asia, Indonesia or elsewhere and talk about China. These governments, these countries are fully aware of the pros and cons of working with China and the pros and cons of working with us. We don't need to teach them this.
Scot Marciel
The Continuing Crisis in Myanmar
We spoke with Marciel just after the second anniversary of the 2021 coup in Myanmar. He began his term as U.S. ambassador to that country in 2016, just before Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s new government was about to take office. As he puts it, it was a time of “euphoria,” not only in Myanmar but also in terms of U.S. hopes for democracy there. It turned out to be a difficult four years for Myanmar and Marciel, as the Rohingya crisis repeatedly erupted and the Myanmar military reacted with violent operations that drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya out of Myanmar. As Marciel relates in his book, he soon found that even using the word “Rohingya” in U.S. embassy statements could create a diplomatic crisis.
Even with the horrific Rohingya genocide, Marciel cautiously notes that by 2020, when he left the country, most people in Myanmar had more opportunity and freedom under four years of a democratically elected government—the Rohingya themselves being the obvious exception. But in 2021, the “military coup basically eliminated that hope and opportunity.”
More and more Myanmar people are explicitly recognizing the legitimate grievances and the suffering of many of the ethnic minority populations, including the Rohingya, over the past years, and [there is] some recognition that they were fed a lot of propaganda for a long time…
Scot Marciel
Marciel doesn’t hold much hope for an end to the coup anytime soon, but he does see at least one “positive development” over the last two years. During the worst of the Rohingya crisis, many in the majority Bamar community did not believe the reports of massacres, or even worse, did not care. But now, after two years of military rule, “more and more Myanmar people are explicitly recognizing the legitimate grievances and the suffering of many of the ethnic minority populations, including the Rohingya, over the past years, and [there is] some recognition that they were fed a lot of propaganda for a long time about what was really happening.”
Establishing Relations with Vietnam
One of Marciel’s great success stories is the normalization of U.S. ties with Vietnam. It was an improbable success with any number of obstacles likely to prevent it from happening, not the least being the debate about the fate of U.S. prisoners of war and servicemen reported as missing in action. Saigon fell in 1975, and yet in 1995, just 20 years later, diplomatic relations were restored and the U.S. embassy opened in Hanoi.
According to Marciel, it took patience, pragmatism, but also the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. No longer able to rely on Soviet help for their economy, the Vietnamese became more open to work with the United States, particularly on POW-MIA issues, allowing Vietnamese imprisoned in re-education camps to flee the country, and withdrawing Vietnamese forces from Cambodia.
Marciel sees the U.S.-Vietnam relationship today as a “good-news story” that shows the degree of progress that can be attained when two countries are willing to be rational and work together. The United States still has significant concerns about human rights in Vietnam yet “both sides have agreed to talk about that issue, but not let it define or limit the relationship excessively.”
“In brief, [we need to] show up and engage consistently… with a focus on the countries that we’re talking to, not on China, because what they’re looking for… is, ‘Can we count on the United States being a long-term partner?’”
Scot Marciel
How the United States Can Improve Relations in Southeast Asia
When pressed for a prescription on what the United States can do to further improve its relationships with the countries in the region, Marciel said, “In brief, show up and engage consistently, with humility, and with a focus on the countries that we’re talking to, not on China, because what they’re looking for, for the most part is, ‘Can we count on the United States being a long-term partner?’”
By ensuring the reliability of the partnership, countries in Southeast Asia have more freedom of maneuver, and they can, if necessary, be more capable to “make decisions China might not like.” The flip side of that—the failure to show up at presidential and high governmental levels, like what happened during the Trump administration—means “you’ve undone all the good that you had done in previous years by investing in those relationships.” The price of isolationism, of neglecting U.S. diplomatic relations in Southeast Asia, is that those countries lose confidence in the United States as a reliable partner.
Video Interview: Scot Marciel Examines Southeast Asia’s Geopolitical Evolution
Ambassador Marciel, the Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at APARC, joined Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the video podcast Endgame, to discuss the transformations Southeast Asian nations are undergoing and their implications for U.S. policy.
In Southeast Asia, the United States Needs to Up its Economic Game
The harsh reality is that, even with still-strong security partnerships, it is hard to imagine the US being able to sustain its overall influence in the region if it continues to lose ground economically.
Terms of Engagement: Ambassador Scot Marciel on U.S.-Southeast Asia Relations
The book Ambassador Marciel is writing at Stanford examines policy issues from the implications of the Myanmar crisis to the future of America’s relations with other Southeast Asian nations and the prospects for a U.S. strategic regional focus.
In "Imperfect Partners," Ambassador Scot Marciel combines a memoir of his 35 years as a Foreign Service Officer with a policy study of U.S. relations with the countries of Southeast Asia, a region proving to be critical economically and politically in the 21st century.
Listen to a conversation with Marciel on the Insight Myanmar podcast, below.
About the book
Scot Marciel is widely considered the State Department’s top Southeast Asia hand, the result of decades of experience working in and on the region and the key role he has played in shaping and implementing U.S. policy. He was on the ground in the Philippines during the historic People Power revolt in the 1980s, became the first U.S. diplomat to serve in Hanoi in the early 1990s, was appointed the first U.S. ambassador to ASEAN in the 2000s, and spent the last 15 years twice serving as the State Department’s point person on Southeast Asia policy, and as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia and then to Myanmar during that country’s democratic experiment and its horrific ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya.
Imperfect Partners encapsulates Marciel’s experiences, providing the perspective of an American diplomat who has dealt with the dual challenges of working with foreign governments and also within the U.S. government. Noting that the United States “has a history of not quite knowing how to engage with Southeast Asia,” he highlights the ups and downs of critical U.S. relationships in the region. Marciel explores not only diplomatic successes, but challenges faced, missteps made, and opportunities missed in U.S. diplomacy with Southeast Asia. His on-the-ground witness account of the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam relations is essential reading, as is his passionate analysis of the gains and the failures of Myanmar’s decade-long opening.
While China’s rise has re-injected a long-absent strategic element into U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia, Marciel warns against making China the focus of that policy. He argues that the United States can best advance its own interests—and support the freedom of maneuver of Southeast Asia—through a strategy of consistent engagement based on a positive agenda and by focusing on the region’s dynamic younger generation.
"What we have in this very readable book are the reflections of an eminent American diplomat on issues of particular significance for Australia as it continues to ponder how it should be responding to China’s rise, and how those responses are likely to affect its alliance with the US." — Dr. Allan Patience
"A new book by longtime U.S. diplomat Scot Marciel, Imperfect Partners, argues that if the United States wants to transcend its “imperfect partnership” with Southeast Asia, it will need to step up its efforts in the region viewing the region as significant for its own sake, as opposed to its relevance to other threats and challenges [...]. The book’s blend of memoir and foreign policy analysis succeeds in providing a rich and nuanced take on U.S. policy in the region. Marciel provides some details on key policy inflection points that will be of interest to Southeast Asia practitioners, experts and watchers, be it being closely scrutinized by Vietnam’s internal security apparatus while setting up the initial U.S. diplomatic presence in the country amid the normalization process in the 1990s, or what he characterizes as puzzling disinterest in communications and messaging by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi as hopes faded for reform in Myanmar in the late 2010s, which coincided with his time as ambassador there. Readers who are less familiar with Marciel’s diplomatic finesse also get a sense of how he helped advance ties in important ways, with a case in point being his literal elevator pitch that eventually saw then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pay a historic visit to the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta in 2009." — Prashanth Parameswaran
Read the complete review at ASEAN Wonk >
"Some of the most fascinating parts of the book are when Marciel shares the lessons he learned about US foreign policy and makes key recommendations of strategies policymakers should consider when confronted with future diplomatic challenges. He is not reserved about criticizing US mistakes and is a full-throated advocate for stronger US engagement with Southeast Asia as Washington’s ties with Beijing deteriorate." — Murray Hiebert
"It is rare that a diplomat or scholar can be so well-versed in a region as diverse and expansive as Southeast Asia, but Scot Marciel’s new book offers an authoritative account of this critical region’s complexities while also being an entertaining memoir of his career in the United States’ government [...] The book makes a compelling case for American policymakers to engage more seriously with Southeast Asia and provides clear guidelines for the best way to do it." — Hunter Marston
"Marciel has created a masterful overview of the diplomatic history of the US and Southeast Asia. Recognizing that US policy has not been unified since the region itself is not a cohesive unit, he argues that neither the US nor the countries of Southeast Asia were perfect partners, engaging one another based on various external and internal stimuli as they collaborated. The author relates personal experiences from his 35 years of diplomatic service in the region to illuminate the ebb and flow of US policy, making this tome part autobiography and part history. Rather than thoroughly reviewing every event, he highlights each relationship with the different countries through interweaving stories. Marciel then examines the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and how the US has worked with this weaker but still important regional organization. He finishes by discussing China's rising influence in Southeast Asia and provides thoughts on how the US can better engage with the region. Even though the book is rich with insight and thoroughly documented, readers should find it a quick and easy read because of its personal narrative style."—David Bath
"Imperfect Partners is a major addition to our understanding of the complicated relationship between the US and Southeast Asia over several decades. Part memoir and multiple parts deft analysis of the delicate art of diplomacy in a highly diverse region of 10 countries, 600 million people, the world’s fifth-largest economy, a key strategic region for global trade in China’s backyard [...], this book’s scope makes it hard to fathom why there isn’t more interest in Southeast Asia in Washington D.C." — David Scott Mathieson
"As a career diplomat, [Scot Marciel] had a distinctive vantage point as an expert on Southeast Asia within the US government regardless of the political stripes of the president in the White House. In Imperfect Partners, he brings readers through the evolution of US involvement and interest in Southeast Asia from Reagan through Trump." — Chong Ja Ian
"The former diplomat says the US needs to keep showing up and boost relations in Southeast Asia. In an area 'long skeptical of US staying power in the region, showing up consistently at the highest levels is essential,' he writes, adding that Washington needs to be a 'consistent, reliable and good partner.' Marciel is extremely qualified to write about the US and Southeast Asia. Over 35 years, he held senior Asia posts in Washington, and was ambassador to ASEAN, to Indonesia, and to Myanmar — before the calamitous February 2021 coup. His book is part-memoir and part-primer, with a background that would be helpful to potential investors or people new to Southeast Asia." — Richard Borsuk
"U.S. policymakers, including me, have struggled for years to figure out how best to work with Southeast Asia as a region. This reflects both the lack of expertise (in academia and government) about the region and the inherent difficulty of dealing with a highly diverse group of countries that has neither a powerful central institution nor a dominant member that can speak on behalf of the members."—Scot Marciel
"For the United States, Southeast Asia is one of the most important and least understood parts of the world. Scot Marciel draws on his vast diplomatic experience to bring a wealth of illuminating stories, hard-earned insights, and wise analysis to bear on a region that will help determine our capacity to deal with the most pressing issues of the 21st century. . . . Imperfect Partners is an indispensable resource for anyone seeking to understand Southeast Asia and America’s relationship with its countries and people." —Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security advisor and author of After the Fall
"Drawing on his 35 years of diplomatic experience, Scot Marciel has written an illuminating survey of the United States' relations with Southeast Asia. . . . This is an excellent primer on a part of the world whose significance has grown substantially in recent years with the rise of neighboring China." —John Negroponte, career diplomat, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and the first director of national intelligence
"Ambassador Scot Marciel has written a gem of a book. His thoughtfully researched account is brought to life with fascinating insights and captivating, on-the-scene anecdotes. . . . Imperfect Partners is a must-read for U.S. policymakers, business leaders, academics, humanitarians, and everyday Americans engaging with the nations of Southeast Asia." —Kristie Kenney, former State Department counselor and U.S. ambassador to Thailand, the Philippines, and Ecuador
"A master practitioner has provided us with a ring-side view of how our diplomats pursue American interests in Southeast Asia. This is must reading for aspiring Southeast Asia hands who want to familiarize themselves with American regional diplomacy. It’s also indispensable reading for American strategists, who will ignore Ambassador Marciel’s policy prescriptions at their peril." —Dave Shear, former assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs and U.S. ambassador to Vietnam
Marjorie Pajaron’s research lies at the intersection of applied microeconomics and health policy, with a focus on gender, health, development, and labor economics. Prior to her appointment at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, she was a postdoctoral fellow in Asia health policy at APARC.
This is the third installment in our series, “Stories in a Time of Pandemic,” in which APARC alumni across Asia share their perspectives on the responses to and implications of COVID-19 in their communities. In part 1 and part 2 of the series, we feature observations from our alumni in China, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Singapore.
The first case of COVID-19 in the Philippines was reported on January 30, 2020, and local transmission was confirmed on March 7, 2020. As of May 21, the number of cases of COVID-19 has risen to 13,434 and the number of deaths attributed to the virus increased to 846, according to the Philippine Department of Health COVID-19 Case Tracker. It is quite alarming that among the ASEAN countries, the Philippines had the second-highest mortality due to COVID-19, next to Indonesia (as per May 5 date by the WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). This could be attributed to several factors, including whether the country’s health system can handle the overwhelming demand for health care due to the COVID-19 crisis and how effective the government’s response is in stemming the spread of this new pathogen. Inherent in the death statistics is the capacity of a country to conduct COVID-19 tests, which means that there should be a sufficient number of test kits available and that the health workers are properly trained to conduct the tests, trace the contacts, and isolate identified individuals.
The President of the Philippines imposed a total lockdown called enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) for the entire island of Luzon, which encompasses eight administrative regions, including the national capital region, from March 15 to April 30. Other parts of the country have also been under some degree of quarantine at different periods since the appearance of local transmission. Executive Order 112, signed on April 30, 2020, was issued to further extend the ECQ in identified high-risk areas and a general community quarantine (GCQ) in the rest of the country. The inter-agency task force for the management of emerging infectious diseases defines ECQ as the implementation of temporary restrictions on the mobility of people, strict regulations of industries, and a heightened presence of uniformed personnel. GCQ is, in a nutshell, a less strict version of ECQ.
The Philippines has faced a lot of challenges during this crisis. First, the health system lacks adequate surge capacity to safely handle a nationwide outbreak of COVID-19 due to shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE), mechanical ventilators, and hospitals with ICUs and isolation beds (see this World Bank report and this Rappler article). More importantly, the insufficient number of health workers, especially in areas outside the metropolitan, is a major concern. Nonetheless, the Department of Health has worked hard to meet the surge in demand due to COVID-19, including partnering with the private sector to repurpose structures and providing data to the public to ensure transparency and accountability. As in other countries, the health workers and those with frontline responsibilities have truly been the new heroes or “bayani” with their tireless efforts and sacrifices.
A significant challenge pertains to the adverse economic impact of COVID-19. The Philippines has a relatively large informal sector and the income of many families depends on daily transactions with no formal job or social security.
Marjorie Pajaron
Another challenge pertains to the adverse economic impact of COVID-19. The Philippines has a relatively large informal sector and the income of many families depends on daily transactions with no formal job or social security. This has prompted the government to extend cash or in-kind support to vulnerable populations – a response that has posed several challenges, particularly related to the who/what/how framework. First, the Philippine government had to properly identify those in need (who). Second, it had to ensure that sufficient resources can be allocated to the identified groups (what). And third, it had to distribute aid in an efficient, timely, and equitable way (how). The government's social welfare efforts to provide for the vulnerable groups have mixed results: at times, the distribution of aid is organized and efficient, at other times insufficient and disorderly (see these CNN Philippines reports of April 7 and April 30).
COVID-19 in the Philippines – How Filipinos Have Coped
There has been a strong spirit of “bayanihan” or collectivism in the country amidst the COVID-19 crisis. People are volunteering, distributing goods to vulnerable groups, or donating PPE to those with frontline duties. Some enterprises also rose to the occasion by repurposing their businesses to meet the local demand for medical products and PPE.
Different individuals have coped differently: some have welcomed the work hiatus that the quarantine has afforded them, some connected more with friends and family, others become more productive working from home. Staying healthy and being mindful are also factors that contribute to remaining calm and rational in this time of national distress.
Despite the challenges, we will continue to face, especially once the quarantine has eased and the new normal is in effect, we can say that Filipinos have also learned some valuable lessons amid this crisis. For one, Filipinos have become more mindful of the importance of good sanitation and non-pharmaceutical public health measures in mitigating the transmission of the virus. Most Filipinos have also become more proactive in their approach, keeping social distance, wearing masks, and practicing proper handwashing, among others. Furthermore, this crisis has redefined and created new heroes who rose to the challenge – from those staying at home to avoid the further spread of the virus to those on the frontline who have dedicated their time and effort to combat the pandemic, to government and business leaders who have served the country sincerely during this crisis.
Perhaps there really is a silver lining in every cloud.
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Residents queue while wearing face masks before undergoing rapid antibody testing for COVID-19 in Quezon city, Metro Manila, Philippines, May 20, 2020. | Ezra Acayan/ Getty Images
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Marjorie Pajaron, assistant professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, describes the unfolding of the pandemic in the country and how Filipinos have coped with the evolving situation.
