This analysis by Arzan Tarapore was originally published at The Monkey Cage by The Washington Post.

Last week, the India-China border standoff came the closest it has yet to war. As Taylor Fravel explained, the long-standing border dispute dates from the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The dispute came to a boil in May when a large force of Chinese soldiers crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the disputed border between the two countries since 1962. A deadly skirmish in June temporarily raised tensions, but it was the result of tragic happenstance rather than large and risky military maneuvers.

Tensions have escalated more seriously since late August because both sides have jostled for tactical advantage, creating incentives for each side to outflank or even fight the other.

Here’s where things stand in this crisis.

Aggressive tactical maneuvers led to rising tensions

A new phase of the four-month-long border crisis opened when Indian special forces quietly occupied several peaks in the mountainous Chushul sector of Ladakh during the night of Aug. 29-30. These peaks sit on India’s side of the LAC, just south of a divided lake — Pangong Tso — but had been left unoccupied in accordance with confidence-building agreements. They were the site of tenacious fighting in the 1962 border war and hold particular tactical significance because they overlook an important pathway through the mountains between India and China.

Occupying the high ground in Chushul was designed to prevent Chinese forces from establishing an even stronger position. India also may have calculated that it could negotiate a withdrawal from those tactically valuable peaks in return for a Chinese withdrawal from areas seized after May.

Tensions rose. Indian and Chinese troops also scrambled to secure high ground overlooking new Chinese fortifications on the north bank of Pangong Tso. They reinforced their positions with additional aircraft and armor and accused each other of firing the first gunshots on the LAC since 1975. Some Indian analysts warned that China might risk war to reverse India’s occupation of the Chushul peaks.

Continue reading Arzan's full analysis on Monkey Cage at The Washington Post >>

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Yuen Yuen Ang, a former postdoctoral student of China Program Director Jean Oi, has been awarded the Theda Skocpol Prize by the American Political Science Association in recognition of her “impactful empirical, theoretical and/or methodological contributions to the study of comparative politics.” The prize recognizes emerging academics up to ten years post-PhD for scholarly excellence in political science. Ang is a Stanford Ph.D. alumna and current associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan.

Her research examines how governments and governing organizations react to radical uncertainty and novel problems. She posits that such disruptions are an endemic condition of the twenty-first century, and that examining the political economies of adapting, or failing to adapt, to rapidly changing realities is a key to understanding current geopolitics.

At the center of Ang’s work is the study of China’s rise as a global superpower, which she characterizes as one of the greatest disruptions of the contemporary world. In her highly acclaimed and award-winning book, How China Escaped the Poverty Trap (2016), Ang challenges the conventional linear models of the political economy of development by applying the principles of complexity and system thinking to offer a new explanation of how China transformed itself from an impoverished planned economy into the world’s second-largest GDP.

Ang’s current work into debunking the myths surrounding the U.S.-China tech race, the misunderstanding of nuances of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the debates swirling around China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to build on her record of excellent and innovative scholarship.

A big congratulations to Yuen Yuen for her latest recognition and ongoing contributions to the field of contemporary Asis studies!

This op-ed by Arzan Tarapore originally appeared in The Hindu.

Over four months ago, the Chinese army entered territory that India has long considered its own, and never left. In effect, the multiple incursions have changed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and India has lost territory, at least for the time being. How could this happen?

In part, it was a failure of the warning-intelligence system. Either Indian intelligence services did not collect sufficient data of Chinese intentions and early moves, or they did not interpret it correctly, or their policy and military customers failed to take the warning seriously. Wherever the fault lay, the system apparently failed.

In part, however, the problem also lay in the Army’s concepts for defending the country’s borders. It is, as the current crisis shows, simply not postured or prepared for the type of security threat China presents. (Continue reading the full article in The Hindu.)

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China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions (Stanford University Press, May 2020), editors Thomas Fingar, a center fellow at APARC, and Jean Oi, the director of APARC’s China Program, join other experts across multiple disciplines in providing close analyses of the most critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign policy challenges China’s leaders face today. They outline the options and opportunity costs entailed, providing an analytic framework for understanding the decisions that will determine China's trajectory.

Fingar and Oi discussed the main arguments in their edited volume at a virtual program of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. Watch here: