View a Japanese version of this announcement.

The Japanese public supports women’s advancement in society, finds the Stanford Japan Barometer, a survey platform launched by the Japan Program at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). This result is somewhat surprising, considering Japan’s poor showing in global gender equality rankings.

Led by Professor of Sociology Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and director of the Japan Program at APARC, and Charles Crabtree, an assistant professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College and a former visiting assistant professor with the Japan Program, the Stanford Japan Barometer (SJB) is a periodic public opinion survey on political, economic, and social issues concerning contemporary Japan with three main parts: (1) questions about respondents’ demographic background; (2) a stable set of questions about support for policy issues, political parties, public institutions, and international entities; and (3) a thematically focused set of questions and experimental studies on topics of great relevance at the time of the survey. The survey is conducted with a national, quota-based sample of 8,000 Japanese residents.

In the first installation of the survey, conducted in late November 2022, the SJB examined issues concerning gender and sexuality in Japan. It found, among other results, that most Japanese are in favor of recognizing same-sex unions and support a legal change to allow married couples to keep separate surnames. The SJB also examined questions related to women’s advancement in Japanese society, the focus of the following report.

One prominent gender equality issue that often recurs in Japanese public discourse is women’s under-representation in prominent positions, especially in politics and business. According to the latest Global Gender Gap Report released by the World Economic Forum, Japan ranks 116th out of 146 countries in terms of gender equality. Japan fares well in the categories of Education and Health, but in Politics and Economy, it ranks 139th and 121st respectively. In another ranking on women’s role and influence in the workforce, the Glass-Ceiling Index compiled by The Economist, Japan ranks second-worst among the 29 developed countries surveyed. Japan barely avoided the lowest ranking (a dubious distinction taken by South Korea), but indeed ranks lowest in terms of the proportion of women in national parliaments (single or Lower House) among OECD countries, with only 10% of Lower House members being female.

To better understand this striking gender disparity, Tsutsui and Crabtree had respondents complete conjoint experiments that examined what types of candidates the Japanese public is more likely to support for a Diet seat and an external corporate board member. The results show, perhaps surprisingly, that Japanese people prefer women for these positions (52% to 48% for the Diet and 51% to 49% for corporate board). Women support female candidates more than men, but men also prefer female candidates over male ones, averaging across all other candidate characteristics such as education and occupational background. These differences are fairly stable across different ages, educational and family backgrounds, and political party support. Contrary to what gender representation in politics and corporate leadership would indicate, the SJB results suggest that there is robust support for women’s representation in those powerful positions across different spectrums of the Japanese public.

Tsutsui and Crabtree also asked a series of questions about views on gender roles and women’s advancement in Japanese society. Respondents were particularly supportive of more men taking parental leave and helping with childcare, registering 6.3 on a scale of 0-10 (5 being neutral and a number larger than 5 indicating support for the statement). They were not supportive of the statements about traditional gender roles, such as “Men should work outside the home and women should stay home” (3.8), or “Boys should be raised to be manly and girls should be raised to be womanly” (4.3). Interestingly, for all these questions, there is a statistically significant difference between male and female respondents, with men showing greater support for traditional gender roles, although the general trend is a shift away from traditional gender roles even among men.

On questions concerning women’s advancement in Japanese society, the Japanese public demonstrated strong support for the argument that more efforts should be made to increase the number of female politicians (5.8), executives (5.9), and board members (5.8). There is no substantial difference between men and women for these questions, indicating that the support for women’s advancement in politics and business is broadly shared across genders.

When it comes to using a quota to ensure women’s seats in the national Diet, management positions, and board rooms, the opinions are divided across the gender line, with women being significantly more supportive (5.1, 5.2, 5.2) than men (4.8, 4.7, 4.7). This likely indicates that men are threatened by the idea of quota as it would reduce the likelihood of their advancement toward these powerful positions.

Men’s resistance to quotas notwithstanding, overall, the Japanese public supports women’s advancement in society, perhaps recognizing the need for Japan to change in light of the embarrassing showing in global rankings of women’s empowerment. These results suggest that the slow pace of change in women’s advancement in Japan might be attributable to the behavior of gatekeepers, who are mostly older men who come from different socioeconomic backgrounds than the SJB’s average survey respondent, rather than to a lack of public support.

For media inquiries about the survey, please reach out to:
Noa Ronkin
APARC Associate Director for Communications and External Relations
noa.ronkin@stanford.edu

View a Japanese version of this announcement.

Survey results from the Stanford Japan Barometer, launched by the Japan Program at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), indicate that the Japanese public supports women’s advancement in society. In addition to this broad support, the survey found that, on the issue of married couples with the same last name in particular, roughly 70% of the Japanese public support a change to accommodate women who do not want to use their husband’s last name.

Led by Professor of Sociology Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and director of the Japan Program at APARC, and Charles Crabtree, an assistant professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College and a former visiting assistant professor with the Japan Program, the Stanford Japan Barometer is a periodic public opinion survey on political, economic, and social issues concerning contemporary Japan with three main parts: (1) questions about respondents’ demographic background; (2) a stable set of questions about support for policy issues, political parties, public institutions, and international entities; and (3) a thematically focused set of questions and experimental studies on topics of great relevance at the time of the survey. The survey is conducted with a national, quota-based sample of 8,000 Japanese residents.

In its first installation of the survey conducted in late November 2022, the Stanford Japan Barometer examined issues around gender and sexuality in Japan and found, among other results, that most Japanese support same-sex marriage, as reported in an earlier press release. The survey also examined the issue of married couples’ last names, which has emerged as a potent symbol of gender inequality in Japan over the past years.

In Japan, married couples are legally required to have the same last name. While the law does not require wives to adopt the last name of their husbands, in reality, more than 95% of married women do so. Many argue that this creates a hurdle for women to advance their careers, as they have to change their last name when they get married, and if they get divorced they have to change it back to their maiden name. Known to lag behind other highly developed economies when it comes to gender equality, Japan has struggled to place women in positions of authority and raise their earnings to a level closer to those of men. Many argue that changing the law to enable married couples to maintain different last names, i.e. keep their own last name, would facilitate a movement toward gender parity as a symbolic sign of support for women’s autonomy in public spaces and a means of practical support for them to advance their career.

The government has tracked public opinion on this issue, with a cabinet office periodically conducting a survey on this topic. In the most recent government survey from 2022, there was a decline in support for a legal change to allow couples to maintain different last names and an increase in support for facilitating the use of a maiden name as the common name in workplaces, compared to the previous survey by the same office conducted in 2017. These results triggered a controversy around this issue, and media allegations surfaced that the survey question was manipulated in such a way as to decrease support for a legal change and increase support for use of a maiden name as a common name, hence pleasing the conservative ruling party LDP leaders. A debate followed as to whether the changes in the question format and answer options contributed to the results that suited what the ruling LDP wanted.

To test the validity of these allegations, Tsutsui and Crabtree conducted an experiment randomly assigning respondents to answer two versions of the government survey under scrutiny, from 2017 and 2022. They found that the survey question and answer format significantly affected the results, as support for a legal name change was at 57% when the respondents were assigned the 2017 version but 30% when they answered the 2022 version, while support for using maiden names as common names found only 19% support in the 2017 version but 39% in the 2022 version. These results provide strong evidence that it was the question format that changed the results between 2017 and 2022. The exact level of support among the Japanese public for a legal change on this issue and how public opinion might have changed over the recent past remain to be seen.

Another thing to note about these results is that in either version of the survey, support for the status quo — married couples having the same last name with no accommodations — is low, at 23% in the 2017 version and 30% in the 2022 version. This indicates that the Japanese public largely recognizes that a change is needed on this issue of married couples’ last names in order to accommodate women seeking career advancement. Tsutsui and Crabtree further examined who still resists the change and found, in their multivariate analysis, that status quo supporters have completed fewer years in school, are currently married, have children, and support Prime Minister Kishida at higher levels. Interestingly, they find a quadratic relationship when it comes to income, showing that both those at the low- and high end of the income distribution are more likely to support the status quo.

Next, Tsutsui and Crabtree conducted an experiment on different arguments that might influence support for a legal change to allow married couples to keep different last names. These arguments focused on several themes. In terms of tradition, some respondents read a prompt that argued that the custom in Japan is for married couples to have the same last name, while others read an argument that married couples in Japan kept different last names up until the first decades of the Meiji era and that is more of Japan’s tradition. Similarly, the researchers presented both pro and con arguments in terms of the social and international reputation costs of legalizing married couples with different last names, as well as the fairness of the practice from the point of view of gender equality and human rights principles.

The results show that an argument about social costs — how allowing married couples to maintain different last names would weaken family bonds with harmful effects on children — is the only one that seems to substantially change public attitudes, reducing support for a legal change. The effect is substantial, roughly 1/7 of a standard deviation, and suggests that it is easier to mobilize opposition to than support for changing the law, a finding with consequences for advocates and opponents of the legal change.

These results reflect complex gender politics at play in Japan. Whatever the intentions of the survey designers for the 2017 and 2022 government surveys, the question and answer formats they used have a significant impact on how much support can be found for married couples keeping different last names. On the other hand, the Japanese public largely recognizes that a change is needed, demonstrating broad support for some kind of change to accommodate calls for women to use their maiden name even after marriage.

As the debate on this issue continues, there is a need to observe how future surveys ask questions about it since public support for a legal change can be influenced by the question framing, format, and answer options.

For media inquiries about the survey, please reach out to:
Noa Ronkin
APARC Associate Director for Communications and External Relations
noa.ronkin@stanford.edu

Although Japan’s approach to economic diplomacy under the Fukuda Doctrine initially was subject to criticism because of its stance on non-interference in domestic affairs, now some are in retrospect lauding the approach, according to Kiyoteru Tsutsui, deputy director at Shorenstein APARC and director of the Japan Program, and co-editor of the recent book The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era. This reevaluation comes after consideration of relatively unsuccessful attempts by the United States to “push” democracy onto Southeast Asian countries. 

The better approach is to focus on advancing the rule of law, which the Japanese have done by investing resources in establishing legal infrastructure in the region, Tsutsui tells Shorenstein APARC Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the popular Endgame video podcast. “Liberal democracy in the sense of the rule of law is a good sort of marketing ploy to sell to Southeast Asian countries because that leads to economic benefits, which is critical to making liberal democracy attractive,” he says.

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Tsutsui joined Wirjawan for an Endgame conversation about Japan’s approaches to foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia and other topics. One issue that both scholars agreed upon is the difficulty in getting Americans to focus on Southeast Asia, which has been long recognized as a critical region by the Japanese. Part of the problem is proximity, of course, but the region also tends to be overshadowed in American eyes by East Asian countries. 

The conversation also turned to the demographic issue Japan and other Asian countries are facing as populations age and economic growth stagnates. Tsutsui pointed out that, before 1945, the Japanese Empire saw itself as multi-ethnic; it was only after WWII that the nation was perceived as homogenous, a viewpoint bolstered by Japan’s great economic success in the 1960s and 70s. Now, however, Tsutsui says there is no choice: “Japan has to become more heterogenous,” and even conservative voices acknowledge that women need a larger role in the labor force and that immigrant labor will be essential to combat the demographic crisis.

This discussion with Tsutsui is part of an "Endgame" interview series Wirjawan is recording with Stanford experts during his residency at APARC.

Societies today are hungry for strategies and solutions that scale growth while improving social outcomes. To spur purpose-driven, innovative responses to the challenges before us, young people must develop skills and approaches grounded in agility, creativity, and empathy. Renowned Japanese rock star, composer, entrepreneur, and philanthropist YOSHIKI shared this advice for doing so:

“As long as you try to make the world a better place, you’ll find your passion. If you believe in yourself, you can conquer anything,” he said while headlining the conference The Future of Social Tech, held on February 23 at Stanford University. Speaking in front of a packed audience and thousands of viewers who tuned in to the livestream, YOSHIKI described how he overcame difficult times and what keeps him motivated. He encouraged Stanford students to redefine failure as a stepping stone to propel themselves forward and practice gratitude. “If you think that way, you can do pretty much whatever you want. Be your own rock star.”

Hosted by the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), the conference kicked off a special event series celebrating APARC’s 40th anniversary. Titled Asia in 2030, APARC@40, the series highlights core areas of the center’s expertise, examines Asia’s transformation over the past four decades, and considers the drivers and shapers of the region’s future.

The conference gathered Japanese and American entrepreneurs, investors, content creators, and educators to share lessons and best practices to accelerate innovation for social impact, or “social tech.” It was the first major university keynote venue for YOSHIKI, a composer, classically-trained pianist, rock drummer, and the leader of the rock groups X Japan and The Last Rockstars. A global rock star and a living legend in Japan, YOSHIKI has pioneered a new brand of visual rock and style and has constantly been pushing his career in new directions, launching products and projects across diverse fields, from fashion and winemaking to finance and philanthropy.

Cultivating Japan-U.S. Partnerships

In his welcome remarks, APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, noted that Japan was one of APARC’s primary research areas since its early beginnings and that the conference embraces that original spirit of keen engagement with Japanese affairs and fostering partnerships between Japan and the United States. 

Consul General of Japan in San Francisco Yasushi Noguchi also offered welcoming remarks, expressing his pride in representing Japan in the United States, two key sources of globally successful technological advancements and content development in the past half-century. The Consul General's office has been critical for the growth of APARC’s Japan Program, generously supporting various activities such as student exchanges, research initiatives, conferences and workshops, and other educational and programming engagements.

As he opened the conference, Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsustui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor in Japanese Studies and deputy director at APARC, explained that, when thinking of Japan in 2030, many Japanese envision a country that plays a positive force in a divided world and that once again becomes a leader of technological innovation. But while there is consensus that such innovation should have social benefits, few have offered clear pathways for realizing this direction. “This conference boldly seeks to find ways forward for entities in Japan and the United States to develop social tech,” said Tsutsui.

Investing in Natural Capital

The morning session of the conference opened with a panel on the future of the environment. Attendees heard from Reiko Hayashi, a director and deputy president at Bank of America Securities Japan Co., Ltd, about sustainable finance in the capital markets and efforts to promote sustainable finance in Japan. Hayashi highlighted steps that Japan’s government is taking to meet its 2050 net-zero goal, its multi-step policy on climate transition finance, and its 2021 revision of the corporate governance code to include sustainability.

Panelist Gretchen Daily, co-founder and faculty director of the Natural Capital Project (NatCap) and the Bing Professor of Environmental Science at Stanford, described the NatCap framework that integrates the value nature provides to society into all major decisions. NatCap partners with a network of hundreds of public and private sector institutions around the world. Daily emphasized that now is the time to capitalize on the momentum in climate action and connect government planners, multilateral financial institutions, private sector partners, and other stakeholders to deliver durable social and economic benefits while securing the world’s stock of natural resources.

Educating Social Innovators

The second panel, which focused on the future of sciences and arts education, featured two trailblazers working to equip new generations with skills and mindsets grounded in imagination, empathy, and curiosity. Sachiko Nakajima, an award-winning musician, mathematics researcher, and educator, shared insights from her work to democratize creativity. As the founder and CEO of steAm.Inc, Nakajima educates the public on the inherent connection between math and music and the importance of including the Arts in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math). In particular, Nakajima aims to reduce gender disparities and pave the way for more women in STEAM in Japan.

Rie Kijima, an assistant professor and director of the Initiative for Education Policy and Innovation at the University of Toronto, noted that one goal we must strive for is to create an environment where young learners believe they can be catalysts of positive social change. Kijima is the co-founder of SKY Labo, an education nonprofit organization that promotes STEAM learning and design thinking in Japan. SKY Labo's definition of STEAM embraces a human-centered approach to tackling solutions in a playful, artful, soulful way that aims to cultivate a sense of purpose and meaning in young learners. “In our education system today, there's so much emphasis on success,” said Kijima, but one of SKY Labo’s messages is that “we need to fail in order to succeed; every time we fail, we fail forward.”

Strengthening Democracy, Combating Digital Echo Chambers

The afternoon panel shifted the focus to the future of democracy and digital media. Attendees heard from Ken Suzuki, CEO and co-founder of SmartNews, an award-winning news app on a mission to “deliver the world’s quality information to the people who need it.” SmartNews uses AI technology to collect trustworthy news from all over the world and organize it for users in simple interfaces. The app, which aims to burst news filter bubbles, includes what it calls a “News From All Sides” slider — a feature that allows users to get a range of perspectives from different publishers across the political spectrum. “We need an ecosystem with incentives to create high-quality content,” said Suzuki. “Democracy is at stake, but I believe that technology can be used for the good of society.”

The following discussion about paths to addressing the threats to democracy included Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and Larry Diamond, the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI. Fukuyama reminded the audience that technology itself never fully solved any human problems. “It's only to the extent that our political systems and institutions can guide technology and use it for socially beneficial purposes that technology actually ever manages to solve anything.” The real task, according to Fukuyama, is to figure out how to control the power of social media platforms and other big companies to silence and amplify content in a non-transparent way. He called for making it mandatory for internet platforms to enable users to choose the kind of content moderation they are served.

Diamond emphasized the need for more legal and regulatory action to increase transparency in the algorithms used by social media companies. It is also necessary to socialize social media users to seek multiple points of view and to understand that echo chambers are civically and democratically dangerous. Ultimately, said Diamond, robust civic education is the best way to teach young people about inquiry and rational debate and prepare them to use tools like SmartNews.

“The Hero Is Within You”

At the conference closing session, keynote speaker YOSHIKI joined Ichiro Fujisaki, former Japanese Ambassador to the United States, for a conversation about the future of the entertainment industry and content business. YOSHIKI talked about his experiences working in both Japan and the United States and pursuing new challenges in multiple fields. “The hero is within you,” he said. “It’s never too late to start anything.”

Reflecting on the future of society in the age of AI from his perspective as a musician and entrepreneur, YOSHIKI said, “If humanity is meant to destroy us, AI will do it faster; If humanity is meant to support each other, AI will support us. Let’s live to support each other and love one another, so that when the singularity moment comes, AI will support us.”

This article originally appeared in The Stanford Daily.

On Thursday, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) inaugurated the “Asia in 2030, APARC@40” conference series to commemorate the Center’s 40th anniversary and explore the diverse ways that Asia has transformed and continues to transform over the years.

“The Future of Social Tech: Nurturing Skills and Markets for Social Impact Innovation” is the first installment of a six-part academic convention spanning both the winter and spring quarters hosted by the Stanford Japan Program. The one-day conference brought together entrepreneurs, investors and other digital influencers to discuss social impact through the lenses of education, government and environment. The event concluded with a keynote address by YOSHIKI, who is the leader of rock bands The Last Rockstars and X Japan and whose musical career of 40 years has earned him a reputation as an innovator in Japan’s entertainment industry.

In his opening remarks at the conference, professor Kiyoteru Tsutsui, director of the Japan Program and deputy director for APARC, said that the event marks the first major in-person conference for the Japan Program since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Need” for Nature

A segment of the conference was dedicated to discussing the future of Japan’s environment and large-scale investments in nature. Gretchen Daily, co-founder and faculty director of the Natural Capital Project, spoke of connecting local stewardship of the ecosystems with investors. According to Daily, by integrating valuations of nature into decision-making, such as through land zoning for the provision of the flow of benefits, there are improvements to ecosystems on both national and local levels. These improvements include water resource management, biodiversity and sandstorm control.

“We know, in cities, that there is a tremendous need for nature,” said Daily. She added that this “need” is reinforced by studies that reflect the “many pathways connecting nature experiences causally to the benefits of human health, mentally and physically.”

STEAM and Innovation

Another panel at the conference focused on STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics), an educational framework integrating art with STEM. The panel was led by Rie Kijima M.A. ’03, Ph.D. ’13, professor of education at the University of Toronto and co-founder of SKY Labo, and Sachiko Nakajima, CEO of setAM, Inc. and director of the STEAM Sports Laboratory. Nakajima and Kijima both work on STEAM education initiatives in Japan and called for interdisciplinary education to be made accessible for youth of all backgrounds.

“In our increasingly challenging, complex world, we need learners who have the courage, audacity, motivation and self-belief that they can be a catalyst of social change,” says Kijima.

According to Kijima, her experiences with STEAM learning from the SKY Labo program demonstrated to her how “empathy can be cultivated and supported in learning, providing learners with an opportunity to reflect, understand and become empathetic listeners.”

“You might not necessarily agree 100% with the person who’s sitting next to you all the time and that’s impossible because we all have different views,” Kijima said. “But we can provide an opportunity for these students… to be at least empathetic towards each other.”

According to Kijima, SKY Labo proposes students to innovate and think outside of the box. “It’s okay that you’re trying to bring out an idea that no one else is thinking about,” Kijima said. She added that the initiative promotes a self-starter mindset that encourages participants “to have a bias towards action. If you have an idea, make it into something that’s actionable.”

According to Nakajima, a focus on innovation should also extend to educators. “Active learning for children should be also done for teachers, I think. Teachers should experience active project-based learning or experience new things in a safety zone,” Nakajima said.

Art and Perseverance

YOSHIKI, a renowned Japanese composer, producer and rock star, spoke at the event’s keynote address. YOSHIKI is known for shaping the visual kei rock genre, which is characterized by heavy glam makeup and androgynous aesthetics. As a musician and artist, he discussed the future of the entertainment industry and his experiences engaging with both America and Japan.

According to YOSHIKI, his father’s early passing was a turning point in his life that motivated him to persist in the face of difficulty. He said that artistic exploration in other disciplines, such as designing kimonos and making wine, helps him stay motivated.

When asked what message he would like to share with Stanford students, he encouraged them to “be your own rockstar.”

“The hero is within you,” YOSHIKI said. He said that, whether he is composing, competing or experiencing a difficult time, he reminds himself of the question, “Who are you fighting?”

“If you believe in yourself, you can conquer anything,” the musician added. “It’s never too late to start anything.”

We are pleased to share that Professor of Sociology Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), has been honored by the Shinsho Taisho Award for his book, Human Rights and the State: The Power of Ideas and the Realities of International Politics (Iwanami Shinsho, 2022). The award recognizes the best titles in the category of Shinsho books — a popular Japanese format of paperback books on academic topics intended to reach a broader audience — published between December 2021 and November 2022. Tsutsui’s book has been ranked number 9 on the list of best new Shinsho titles out of over 1200 candidates.

The annual Shinsho Taisho Award is sponsored by Japanese publisher Chuokoron Shinsha. Award selections are made by experts with a deep knowledge of new releases, including scholars, booksellers, editors of new books from various companies, and newspaper reporters. The ranking of the top 20 honored titles, including detailed selection notes and reviews, are published in the March 2023 issue of Chuokoron magazine.

Tsutsui’s book explores the paradox underlying the global expansion of human rights, examines Japan’s engagement with human rights ideas and instruments, and assesses their impacts on domestic politics around the world. “This excellent book clarifies the principles of the international order by bringing ‘human rights power’ to the forefront, and makes constructive suggestions on the nature of Japan’s human rights diplomacy,” says one expert review.

For his book, Tsutsui was also recently honored as the recipient of the 2022 Ishibashi Tanzan Award and the 44th Suntory Prize for Arts and Sciences.

In an APARC interview about the book, Tsutsui, who is also director of APARC’s Japan Program, APARC’s deputy director, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the co-director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice, explains the tension inherent in the diffusion of global human rights, which is rooted in states’ embracing these universal rights although they are grounded in principles that constrain their sovereignty. Tsutsui believes that Japan has an opportunity to become a global leader in human rights. “The more inwardly oriented United States is creating a vacuum in promotion and protection of liberal values, especially with China’s influence surging, and Japan should carry the torch taking the mantle of human rights, democracy, and rule of law,” he argues.

Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political and comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. His current projects examine issues including changing conceptions of nationhood and minority rights in national constitutions and in practice, populism and the future of democracy, the global expansion of corporate social responsibility, and Japan’s public diplomacy and perceptions of Japan in the world.

View a Japanese version of this announcement.

The Japan Program at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to announce the launch of the Stanford Japan Barometer, a periodic public opinion survey on political, economic, and social issues concerning contemporary Japan. The Stanford Japan Barometer consists of three parts: (1) questions about respondents’ demographic background; (2) a stable set of questions about support for policy issues, political parties, public institutions, and international entities; and (3) a thematically focused set of questions and experimental studies on topics of great relevance at the time of the survey. The survey is conducted with a national, quota-based sample of 8,000 Japanese residents.

The Stanford Japan Barometer is developed and led by Professor of Sociology Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at APARC and director of the Japan Program, and Charles Crabtree, an assistant professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College and a former visiting assistant professor with the Japan Program.

For their initial survey conducted in late November 2022, Tsutsui and Crabtree used the third thematically focused component to examine issues related to gender and sexuality in Japanese politics today. In this component, they asked questions about same-sex marriage, a topic that has attracted a great deal of attention in recent weeks after one of the Executive Secretaries to the Prime Minister made discriminatory statements about same-sex couples and subsequently had to step down from his position.

The results from this part of the survey show that overall about 47.2% of the Japanese public support potential legislation to legalize same-sex marriage, roughly 15.8% oppose it, and approximately 36.9% neither support nor oppose it. Consistent with other recent surveys on this topic in Japan, stated support for same-sex marriage seems rather high with only 16% explicitly opposing it.

Later in this thematically focused section of the survey, Tsutsui and Crabtree examined how a range of common media frames might change people’s minds about same-sex marriage, adding prompts that made both supportive and opposing arguments about same-sex marriage. These arguments focused on several themes. In terms of tradition, the researchers presented some respondents with the view that the tradition in Japan is that marriage is a union between opposite sexes, others with the view that Japan has traditionally been tolerant of same-sex relations ever since the Sengoku era (16th century). Similarly, the researchers presented both pro and con arguments in terms of the impact of legalizing same-sex marriages on depopulation in Japan and the country’s international reputation, as well as the fairness of same-sex marriages from the point of view of constitutional rights and human rights principles.

The results show that respondents tend to become more supportive of same-sex marriage when they are presented with an argument that not allowing same-sex marriage is unfair from the point of view of human rights and gender equality. Based on these findings and the results of the first part of the survey, it seems that Japanese attitudes to same-sex marriage are relatively supportive and could be made even more supportive when human rights principles are mobilized.

In another section of this survey, Tsutsui and Crabtree fielded a set of experiments that provide perspective on how these seemingly egalitarian attitudes toward same-sex marriage play out in practice. Specifically, the researchers had respondents complete conjoint experiments aimed at better understanding what types of candidates the Japanese public is more likely to support for a Diet seat and an external corporate board member. In contrast to the results described above, the findings show that candidates in same-sex relations received less support (45% to 55% for the Diet and 43.5% to 56.5% for corporate board), revealing substantial discriminatory attitudes toward same-sex couples when it comes to giving them prominent public roles.

This preference appears driven by men, as women respondents exhibit no discrimination against same-sex couples in either context. It also appears driven by age: people over 70 only selected same-sex couples as a candidate for the Diet and board membership around 30% of the time, while those younger than 30 actually slightly prefer same-sex couple candidates.

In sum, the inaugural Stanford Japan Barometer reveals that the Japanese public generally supports same-sex marriage even though Japan is the only country among the G7 nations that does not legally recognize same-sex unions. However, some Japanese have reservations about people in same-sex relations occupying high-level public positions, revealing the limits of public acceptance of LGBTQ communities.

The survey also included questions and experimental components that unveil much about public support for women representation in the Diet and corporate boards, and about respondent attitudes toward couples keeping different last names after marriage. The researchers will share those results in subsequent press releases.

For media inquiries about the survey, please reach out to APARC Communications Manager Michael Breger: mbreger@stanford.edu. For inquiries in Japanese, contact Japan Program Coordinator Kana Igarashi Limpanukorn: kilimpan@stanford.edu.

This opinion article first appeared in the Washington Post.

Most world leaders, including President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, agree that the defense of Taiwan is crucial for regional security. But most options for improving deterrence will take too long. Building Taiwan’s self-defense, developing more U.S. firepower in the region, creating the economic resilience to make severe sanctions feasible: None of these will come to fruition before 2030.

Japan could change the game now. Allied forces, responding immediately and en masse, have a chance of thwarting a Chinese invasion, according to a recent report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies. But, in meetings with high-level officials in Tokyo last month, I sensed a mismatch between talk and walk. Japan must broaden its vision of self-defense to encompass priorities and declaratory policies that will avert calamity in the region. Tokyo cannot wait until war breaks out to start the tougher conversations.

Here’s why.

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First, without Japan, the United States could be outgunned in a fight to defend Taiwan, notwithstanding Washington’s new basing agreement with the Philippines. A combined U.S.-Japan fleet, on the other hand, would boast more than three times as many aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers as the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The quality of many Japanese ships approaches that of its U.S. counterparts. Eight of Japan’s destroyers field a state-of-the-art Aegis weapons system used by some of the more advanced ships in the U.S. Navy.

Second, Japan’s involvement could mitigate some of the geographic vulnerabilities of the United States. Adding Japanese bases more than doubles the locations from which the two countries together could conduct operations. Japan’s southwestern islands are closer to Taiwan than mainland China. Take Yonaguni Island, just about 70 miles from Taiwan’s east coast. On it are intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, as well as anti-ship and anti-aircraft capabilities. Operating from these bases in the defense of Taiwan, allied forces would have more opportunities to quickly target an invading force. That would make attacks on U.S. bases in Japan, such as Kadena, at the southernmost tip of the archipelago, less attractive to the Chinese. Such strikes would no longer completely cripple an air effort.

Third, Japan has military strengths that would make a fait accompli almost impossible for China. Though Japanese diesel submarines are slower than U.S. counterparts, they could reach the Taiwan Strait in just two days. U.S. submarines departing from Hawaii would take at least a week; from San Diego even longer. This makes Japan the first line of defense for Taiwan. Japanese boats could also monitor key choke points through which Chinese navy submarines would be attempting to exit the First Island Chain in the western Pacific. This would free up the quieter submarines of the U.S. Navy to wreak havoc on amphibious vessels and escort ships.

In short, Tokyo could contribute significantly to a military effort to deny China the ability to take Taiwan by force. To do so, Japan must increase its stockpile of torpedoes and long-range strike weapons, as planned. Tokyo must be willing to go after the amphibious invasion force and targets on mainland China — a very controversial proposition indeed.

On the surface, it looks as if Japan is moving in the right direction. The government took the groundbreaking historic step of increasing defense spending to 2 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product over the next five years. This meant a whopping 26.3 percent increase in 2023 alone. The greatest increase in the past was in 1986, by nearly 50 percent.

Last year, former prime minister Shinzo Abe stated that the security of Japan is connected to Taiwan. He said a Chinese use of force against a U.S. vessel defending Taiwan could legally trigger the deployment of Japan’s military (known as the Self-Defense Force).

Indeed, a 2015 law allows Japan to engage in collective defense when presented with an existential threat. This provides plenty of flexibility for Japan to fight alongside the United States without the need for a constitutional amendment. The officials I spoke with in Tokyo were firm that Japan would respond if China attacked U.S. bases such as Kadena.

But all these initiatives concern self-defense. Japan does worry that military activity around Taiwan could extend to the security of its southwestern islands. Or that if China takes Taiwan, it would be emboldened to take the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which Tokyo administers but which China also claims. There are even concerns that Okinawa, a group of 160-plus islands that is home to 1.4 million people (and dozens of U.S. bases), could then prove enticing to Beijing.

Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. Those heading toward Taiwan? Not so much.

While a degree of strategic ambiguity makes sense, too much could backfire. If Japan is clearly unwilling to defend Taiwan, then improvements in Japanese military capabilities will do little to deter conflict across the strait. Japanese officials don’t need to say they would attack any Chinese invading forces, but they need to let their counterparts know it is a real possibility. The officials I met were unwilling to send such strong messages; some insisted reassuring Beijing was more important.

Tokyo must make clear at home and abroad that defending Taiwan is no longer off the table. The prospect of Japan engaging in offensive operations in the defense of Taiwan would stay Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hand. Only then would recent monumental changes in Japanese politics fulfill their potential in contributing to peace and security in Asia. If Ukraine has taught us anything, it is that deterrence is costly, but war is worse.

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Military Miscalculations, Economic Dislocations

McFaul opened the first session by reviewing some of the lessons from the war in Ukraine. The international community underestimated the Ukrainian military, he said. Putin, however, miscalculated the response of the United States and NATO, on the military side, and the scope of the sanctions the global community of democratic states, including Japan, would be willing to impose on Russia, on the economic side. 

It turned out, noted McFaul, that it was possible to reduce drastically Russian oil and gas coming into Europe, and Russia today has significantly fewer resources to fight Ukraine than it had anticipated. “I think it is very important to look at just how much economic dislocation happened with Russia, a country that was not integrated into the global economic world in the same way that China is,” McFaul said. He pointed out that the international community might also be underestimating the political pressure and dislocation that will erupt if, unprovoked, China invades Taiwan. “It will have very deep economic consequences for the Chinese economy,” said McFaul.

It is important to remember that the international community did not make credible commitments to deterring Russia before 2022, McFaul noted. In the case of China, he emphasized the imperative of considering concrete ways to enhance deterrence against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before military action begins. 

Rethinking Defense and Deterrence

China, however, is not easily deterrable, as Mastro explained in her following remarks. President Xi has been clear from early on that enhancing China’s role on the international stage would be a key part of the Chinese Communist Party’s agenda. Taiwan is a top priority issue in the Chinese Communist Party’s long-term thinking, said Mastro. She reminded the audience that at the recent CCP Congress, President Xi reaffirmed that China will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under its control. He also elevated Party members with extensive expertise in the joint operational domain and with Taiwan contingencies to the Central Military Commission, the Chinese top decision-making body for military affairs.

How, then should the United States and its allies approach the question of deterring China? Mastro emphasized three conditions that U.S and Japanese defense policy must meet.

First, whatever the United States and Japan do in the defense realm must have an operational impact. For example, U.S. carriers will do nothing to prevent China from taking Taiwan in a wartime scenario, Mastro argued. “And along those lines, from the Japanese point of view, enhancing defense of the Senkaku Islands does nothing to deter China from taking Taiwan unless Japanese operations are going to be involved directly in stopping a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”

The second condition is that China has to know about any defense changes the U.S. and its allies are making. For instance, if, in peacetime, there is no indication that the Japanese military is engaging in Taiwan Strait transits with the United States and the Chinese do not know about such activities, then they do not enhance deterrence.

Third, deterrence must happen before a war starts. It may seem an obvious point, but if the prevalent view is that, for example, the Japanese public will support the United States once a conflict over Taiwan erupts, then this approach does not deter China. “We have to let the Chinese know now that there is such support,” Mastro stated.

One issue China is concerned about, Mastro noted, is widening a Taiwan contingency. “China only wins Taiwan if the war is short, geographically limited to Taiwan, and only involves the United States, potentially in Taiwan,” she explained. “So I am convinced that if Japan were to commit to fighting with the United States in this contingency, that would be enough to deter China.”

Ultimately, the question before the United States and its allies is: “Do we want a happy China that is undeterred or an unhappy China that's deterred,” Mastro concluded. “Those are our only two options.” Deterrence is expensive and requires tradeoffs, but one thing that is costlier than deterrence is a major war, she emphasized.

“Let’s start thinking about how to actually change the environment with the sense of urgency that we need, because my biggest fear is that we're going to find ourselves in a major war with massive cost,” she urged the audience. There will be sacrifices to make, but the alternative, in Mastro's view, is worse.

Opportunities and Perils for Democracy

In the second session of the conference, panelists Larry Diamond and Francis Fukuyama examined the war in Ukraine and the tensions over Taiwan from the lens of democratic decline and its implications for the liberal international order.

Democracy has been in a global recession for most of the last two decades, yet the picture is not as bleak for democracies as it was just two or three years ago, said Diamond. In the United States, reforms at the state level have occurred, election deniers took control of Congress seats by a much smaller margin than predicted before the 2022 midterms, and extreme election deniers in crucial swing states were virtually defeated. Meanwhile, on the international stage, 2022 spotlighted autocrats’ inevitable shortcomings. In Russia, Putin has catastrophically miscalculated the war in Ukraine. In China, Xi has massively mismanaged the COVID pandemic, and the country’s economic growth is severely impaired.

Fukuyama said he was encouraged by the democratic solidarity shown in response to the war in Ukraine, especially in Europe, within NATO, and in Japan. Germany’s and Japan’s decisions to increase their defense budgets have been remarkably reassuring signals of strength among democracies, he noted.

But we sometimes forget that many countries in the Global South and elsewhere do not buy into this narrative, cautioned Fukuyama. Among the big disappointments in this regard is India, he stated, which raises the question of whether the issue at stake is indeed a battle between democracy and authoritarianism.

Indeed, democracies still face intractable challenges, Diamond explained. These include the corrupting influence of dirty money around the world, the trends of de-industrialization and hollowing out of the working class in advanced democracies, and social media, which Diamond sees as the single biggest driver of democratic decline. “I cannot tell you how much damage social media has done to destroy the social fabric of Truth and credibility and polarize society into tribal camps who don't have the same facts,” he said. “We have not found a way to temper that impact and win the battle For Truth.”

Taiwan and Deterrence

When it comes to the question of Taiwan, Diamond says he is worried. “There is going to be a PRC military invasion of Taiwan, probably in this decade, unless it is deterred,” he said. The three most crucial actors in deterring China are Taiwan, the United States, and Japan, he explained. Successful deterrence must involve coordination among all three in multiple arenas — from military cooperation to increased defense capacity and preparedness to impose such heavy costs in response to a Chinese invading force that will change Xi’s calculus.

Diamond observed that democracy is about uncertainty, of which there is now plenty in Taiwan as it looks ahead to a January 2024 contentious presidential election. Diamond’s prediction is that "China will intervene however it thinks it can” in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election, as Xi would certainly prefer to pick up the island peacefully than by force, he said. “I think it's going to be very important that the people of Taiwan see that they're not alone, that the democracies of the world — not just the United States and Japan but Australia and Europe — are with them; it will increase their will to fight.”