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Co-sponsored by the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and the Southeast Asia Program
 
The Philippines is typically characterized as a weak, even patrimonial, state in which powerful oligarchs and political families dominate politics and policymaking.  By implication, the elite should be able to easily suppress reform and the state should be unwilling or incapable of carrying out reforms.   Yet some efforts to achieve socioeconomic and governance reform have succeeded.  How and why is this the case?  And what does this suggest about the changing nature of the Philippine state?

This presentation will examine the dynamics and outcomes of three extended efforts at social, economic and governance reform in the Philippines:  1) agrarian reform; 2) liberalization of the telecommunications sector and 3) fiscal and budget reforms.

Theory and practice will be bridged in an examination of interlinked factors including the autonomy and capacity of the state, the limits on reform imposed by elite-dominated democracy, and the conditions and strategies that have enabled some reforms to succeed.
Particular questions to be addressed will include:
·       What are the political and institutional barriers to reform in the Philippines?  How have these changed over time?
·       How have these barriers been overcome in the cases of “successful” reform?  What does “successful” mean?  
·       How have attempts at reform strengthened or weakened the state?
·       Looking forward, will the typically partial or incremental character of reform result in transformational change, or deflect it?

David Timberman is a political analyst and development practitioner with 30 years of experience analyzing and addressing political, governance and conflict-related challenges, principally in Southeast and South Asia.  As a Visiting Scholar at Stanford/APARC he is working on a book on the contemporary Philippine political economy.  During 2015-2016 he was a Visiting Professor of Political Science at De La Salle University in Manila. He has lived and worked in the Philippines, Indonesia and Singapore, including experiencing first-hand the democratic transitions in the Philippines (1986-1988) and Indonesia (1998-2001). He has written extensively on political and governance issues in the Philippines and has edited or co-edited multi-author volumes on the Philippines, Cambodia, and economic policy reform in Southeast Asia.

David G. Timberman 2016-2017 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia
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Dr. Sayuri SHIRAI is currently a professor of Keio University and is also a visiting scholar at the Asian Development Bank Institute. She was a Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) from April 2011 to March 2016, who is responsible for making policy decisions. She also taught at Sciences Po in Paris in 2007–2008 and was an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 1993 to 1998.

She is the author of numerous books on a variety of subjects including the People’s Republic of China’s exchange rate system, Japan’s macroeconomic policy, IMF policy, and the European debt crisis. Her most recent book (translated title: Unwinding Super-Easy Monetary Policy), published in August 2016, is about the monetary policies of the BOJ, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve System. She regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, and features in many Japanese TV programs and newspapers, commenting on the Japanese economy and monetary policy. URL: http://www.sayurishirai.jp

Her most recent book in English is Mission Incomplete: Reflating Japan’s Economy published by the Asian Development Bank Institute in February 2017. It is a complete analysis of BOJ’s unconventional monetary easing from the late 1990s to the present. Free Download is available at https://www.adb.org/publications/mission-incomplete-reflating-japan-economy.

Sayuri Shirai Professor at Keio University and Visiting Scholar at Asian Development Bank Institute
Seminars
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Speakers:  

Stefan Ma & Zheng Li Yau (Ministry of Health, Singapore)

Chao Quan (University of Hong Kong)

Wankyo Chung (Seoul National University)

Karen Eggleston & Katherine Hastings (Stanford University)

Hai Fang (Peking University)

Min Yu & Haibin Wu (Zhejiang CDC)

Jianqun Dong (China CDC)

As the demographic and epidemiological transitions continue to unfold into the second and third decades of the 21st century, health systems face the challenge of how best to promote healthy ageing, including reducing the complications associated with complex chronic diseases like diabetes. About 80% of people with diabetes live in low-to-middle income countries, with the largest increase in absolute numbers in East and South Asia.

This colloquium showcases research from an international collaboration studying “value for money” in controlling chronic disease, focusing on the case of diabetes. Presenters from ministries of health and distinguished universities throughout East Asia will provide brief summaries of the policy challenges their health systems face and how we are together assessing net value of diabetes management in the diverse institutional contexts of Beijing, Zhejiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Korea, the US, and the Netherlands. 

RSVP required. To register, please email Lisa Lee (llee888@stanford.edu) or call Sanjiu Zhang (86-10-62744163). 

International Comparison of Net Value in Diabetes Management
Download pdf

Stanford Center at Peking University

Lee Jung Sen Building, Peking University

Beijing, China

 

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The Asia Health Policy Program at Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), in collaboration with scholars from Stanford Health Policy's Center on Demography and Economics of Health and Aging, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Next World Program, is holding its third annual conference on the economics of ageing. The conference is one of several activities planned in 2017 to mark the 10th anniversary of the Asia Health Policy Program.

The triumph of longevity can pose a challenge to the fiscal integrity of public and private pension systems and other social support programs disproportionately used by older adults. High-income countries offer lessons – frequently cautionary tales – for low- and middle-income countries about how to design social protection programs to be sustainable in the face of population ageing. Technological change and income inequality interact with population ageing to threaten the sustainability and perceived fairness of conventional financing for many social programs. Promoting longer working lives and savings for retirement are obvious policy priorities; but in many cases the fiscal challenges are even more acute for other social programs, such as insurance systems for medical care, long-term care, and disability. Reform of entitlement programs is also often politically difficult, further highlighting how important it is for developing countries putting in place comprehensive social security systems to take account of the macroeconomic implications of population ageing.

The objective of the conference is to explore the economics of ageing from the perspective of sustainable financing for longer lives. The conference will bring together researchers to present recent empirical and theoretical research on a range of topics in this area.

The first full day of the conference – April 24 – is open to the public. The lunchtime keynote speech on the second day of the conference – April 25 – is also open to the public; the remaining portions of that day are reserved for panelists only to encourage candid conversation in a closed-door setting.

Conference Agenda

April 24

7:45                             Breakfast

8:25                             Welcome         Gi-Wook Shin, Stanford University

                                                           Karen Eggleston, Stanford University

 

Session I: Long-term Care and Intergenerational Support

Chair: Gopi Shah Goda, Stanford University

8:30 – 9:30                   “Housing Assets and Access to Long Term Care Services and Supports: Evidence from the Housing Bubble Burst”

                                                            Richard Frank, Harvard University

                                                            Discussant: Tom Davidoff, University of British Columbia

9:30 – 10:30               “The Demand for Long-Term Care Insurance in Canada”

                                                            Pierre-Carl Michaud, HEC Montréal and RAND

                                                            Discussant: Chris Tonetti, Stanford Graduate School of Business

10:30 – 10:45              Coffee break

10:45 – 11:45             “The Price of the East Asian Miracle: Generational Cultural Shift and Elderly Suicide”

                                                            Hyejin Ku, University College London

                                                            Discussant: Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University and Stanford University

Session II:

Co-Chairs: John Shoven and Karen Eggleston, Stanford University

11:45 – 13:45              Lunch

Keynote panel: "The policy challenges of financing longevity: Perspectives from Japan and the US"

Hirotaka Unami, Senior Director for Policy Planning and Research, Minister's Secretariat, Ministry of Finance, Japan

Olivia S. Mitchell, International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans Professor, as well as Professor of Insurance/Risk Management and Business Economics/Policy, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Session III: Financial Planning and Health

Chair: David Canning, Harvard University

14:00 – 15:00              “Cognitive Decline and Household Financial Outcomes at Older Ages”

                                                            Marco Angrisani, University of Southern California

                                                            Discussant: Kathleen McGarry, UCLA

15:00 – 15:15              Break

15:15 – 16:15             “From Compression to Expansion of Morbidity: Upcoming Challenges for Health Care and Long Term Care in China”

                                                            Bei Lu, University of New South Wales

                        Discussant: Wang Feng, Fudan University and UC Irvine

16:40                           Closing

 

Apri1 25

11:45 – 13:00              Lunch

                                    Policy challenges of financing longevity: Perspectives from Singapore

Kelvin Bryan Tan, Ministry of Health, Singapore

 

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Reducing long working hours has been a high priority in the agenda to improve work conditions in Japan.  Towards this aim, the government has introduced legislation and policy measures, and corporations have modified their human resource policies to help employees strike better work-life balance.  Yet, working hours in Japan have remained virtually unchanged since the 1990s.  In this talk, I argue that the true causes of long working hours lie not in the “observable” barriers such as compensation schemes, public policy and law, but rather are embedded in “unobservable” or “unmeasurable” attributes such as social norms and work conventions.  Understanding this problem better requires an approach that accounts for both economic principles (which focus on monetary rewards and incentives) and sociological perspectives which pay closer attention to the social-institutional context.  I argue that long working hours in Japan stem from the institutional complementarities of the Japanese employment system and the cultural particularities underlying it.  I discuss the role of the input-driven society, work conventions that rely on signaling, internal labor market structure, group consciousness and hierarchy, ambiguous job functions, and the traditional gender division of labor.  I close by proposing measures to reduce working hours that follow from my analysis.

 

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Hiroshi Ono (Ph.D. Sociology, University of Chicago) is Professor of Human Resource Management at the Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University and Affiliated Professor of Sociology at Texas A&M University.  His research interests include economic sociology, work and labor markets, and happiness.  He has extensive international experience, having held professional and academic positions in the U.S., Japan and Sweden.  His work has won a number of awards such as the Best Paper Award from the Labor and Employment Relations Association, and Rosabeth Moss Kanter Top 20 Paper Award for Excellence in Work-Family Research.  He is the author of the book, Redistributing Happiness:  How Social Policies Shape Life Satisfaction (with Kristen Schultz Lee, 2016).  His papers have appeared in the American Sociological Review, Journal of Japanese and International Economies, Social Forces, Social Science Quarterly and Social Science Research, among others.

Hiroshi Ono Professor of Human Resource Management, Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University
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Following a century of violent anti-religious campaigns, China is now filled with new temples, churches and mosques--as well as cults, sects and politicians trying to harness religion for their own ends. Driving this explosion of faith is uncertainty--over what it means to be Chinese, and how to live an ethical life in a country that discarded traditional morality a century ago and is still searching for new guideposts. Ian Johnson lived for extended periods with underground church members, rural Daoists and Buddhist pilgrims. Throughout his career in journalism and in his new book Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao (Pantheon/Knopf in the United States and Penguin in the U.K., both April 2017), Johnson has distilled these experiences into a cycle of festivals, births, deaths, detentions and struggle—a great awakening of faith that is shaping the soul of the world’s newest superpower. This panel discussion, featuring a keynote speech delivered by Johnson, will explore the resurgence of religion and value systems in China.

Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao will be available for sale. 

Panelists:

 

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Ian Johnson is a Pulitzer-Prize winning writer focusing on society, religion, and history and 2016 Shorenstein Journalism Awardee. He works out of Beijing and Berlin, where he also teaches and advises academic journals and think tanks.

Johnson has spent over half of the past thirty years in the Greater China region, first as a student in Beijing from 1984 to 1985, and then in Taipei from 1986 to 1988. He later worked as a newspaper correspondent in China, from 1994 to 1996 with Baltimore's The Sun, and from 1997 to 2001 with The Wall Street Journal, where he covered macro-economics, China's WTO accession and social issues. In 2009, Johnson returned to China, where he writes features and essays for The New York TimesThe New York Review of Books, The New Yorker, National Geographic, and other publications. He teaches undergraduates at The Beijing Center for Chinese Studies, and also runs a fellowship program there. In addition, he formally advises a variety of academic journals and think tanks on China, such as the Journal of Asian Studies, the Berlin-based think tank Merics, and New York University's Center for Religion and Media. 

 

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Orville Schell, Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations, Asia Society is a long-time China observer, author, journalist, and former Dean and Professor at the University of California, Berkeley, Graduate School of Journalism.

Schell is the author of fifteen books, ten of them about China, and a contributor to numerous edited volumes. His most recent books are: Wealth and Power, China’s Long March to the 21st Century; Virtual Tibet; The China Reader: The Reform Years; and Mandate of Heaven: The Legacy of Tiananmen Square and the Next Generation of China’s Leaders. He has written widely for many magazine and newspapers, including The Atlantic Monthly, The New Yorker, Time, The New Republic, Harpers, The Nation, The New York Review of Books, Wired, Foreign Affairs, the China Quarterly, and The New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times.

 

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Xueguang Zhou, Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

One of Zhou's current research projects is a study of the rise of the bureaucratic state in China. He works with students and colleagues to conduct participatory observations of government behaviors in the areas of environmental regulation enforcement, in policy implementation, in bureaucratic bargaining, and in incentive designs. He also studies patterns of career mobility and personnel flow among different government offices to understand intra-organizational relationships in the Chinese bureaucracy.

His recent publications examine the role of bureaucracy in public goods provision in rural China (Modern China, 2011); interactions among peasants, markets, and capital (China Quarterly, 2011); access to financial resources in Chinese enterprises (Chinese Sociological Review, 2011, with Lulu Li); multiple logics in village elections (Social Sciences in China, 2010, with Ai Yun); and collusion among local governments in policy implementation (Research in the Sociology of Organizations, 2011, with Ai Yun and Lian Hong; and Modern China, 2010).

 

About the Award:

The Shorenstein Journalism Award, which carries a cash prize of $10,000, honors a journalist not only for a distinguished body of work, but also for the particular way that work has helped American readers to understand the complexities of Asia. The award, established in 2002, was named after Walter H. Shorenstein, the philanthropist, activist, and businessman who endowed two institutions that are focused respectively on Asia and on the press: the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) in the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University, and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public Policy in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

In 2011, Shorenstein APARC re-envisioned the award in recognition of the fact that Asia has served as a crucible for the role of the press in democratization in places such as South Korea, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia. It has also figured greatly in the emergence of social media and citizen journalism. New tests of the role of the media are emerging in China, Vietnam, and other authoritarian societies in Asia. Will the Internet be a catalyst for change, or can it also be a carrier of new forms of cyber nationalism and an instrument of authoritarian control? How are Asia’s journalists responding to that challenge?

 
 
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South Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld a parliamentary decision to impeach President Park Geun-hye on Friday. She becomes the country’s first democratically elected leader to be forcibly removed from power, following allegations of corruption that have incited widespread protests for months.
 
Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, answers some questions about the impact of Park’s impeachment and path ahead for South Korea.
 
What happens next?
 
The ruling declares that President Park is no longer president and that she must vacate Blue House, the official residence of the South Korean head of state. Indeed, she returned to the residence where she had lived before assuming the presidency. A presidential election will be held within 60 days, most likely on May 9. In the meantime, South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, who was appointed as acting president, will continue in that role until the election. 
 
The decision made by the court was only one part of the investigation into Park’s political scandals and alleged corruption. The verdict delivered on March 10 states that Park committed a grave violation of constitutional law. Park could still face charges for corruption and cronyism, as a separate legal process is ongoing, and she could be put into jail.
 
How are people in South Korea responding to the ruling so far?
 
Most people are accepting the ruling. The decision to confirm Park’s impeachment was largely expected. One noteworthy aspect of the ruling, though, was its unanimity – all eight judges on the court voted to confirm her impeachment. This collective stance aimed to message an agreement that ‘it’s time to move on’ and to minimize the potential for discord in government and society.
 
Following months of protests in Seoul, the reactions on the streets have been fairly restrained. However, there is a contingent that supported Park throughout the trial and they still refuse to accept the ruling. Park herself also expressed defiance, rather than accepting the verdict, reportedly saying, “It will take time, but the truth will eventually be revealed.” Political tensions will continue, perhaps even after the upcoming election.
 
What motivated the protests and impeachment process, and what does it represent?
 
Beyond the political scandals, the protests are more broadly an expression of popular discontent over a range of issues. Following two decades of rapid modernization, South Koreans are experiencing growing inequality, high youth unemployment, and fatigue over two presidential terms by conservative parties. Civic participation was a main driver behind the protests. The protests were large scale and prolonged but certainly not unusual for South Korea. Historically speaking, South Korea has a pattern of a strong state setting itself against a contentious civil society. As was evident in 2016-17, political parties, instead of addressing the issues and public opinion, were being led by the movements themselves.
 
The impeachment trial and civic activism represent neither a crisis of politics nor a crisis of democracy for South Korea. Rather, it shows that Korean democracy has progressed since it accelerated its democratic transition in the late 1980s. Throughout Park’s case, democratic procedures were followed by the National Assembly, special prosecutor and the Constitutional Court – and that’s a good sign. Nonetheless the real test for Korean democracy may yet have to come, as some supporters of Park and perhaps she herself have indicated that the verdict is unfair and unconstitutional. Going forward, I am still optimistic that these events will encourage the government to be more careful with exercise of power and more attentive to societal issues.
 
What are the main issues that the government now faces?
 
National unity and stability will be the main priorities of the next president of South Korea. He or she will have to find a way to bridge the deep divide between progressives and conservatives, and work on the issues that have motivated such wide unrest across the country. An orderly presidential election and transfer of power from the Park administration to the next are equally essential. The next president faces a unique circumstance, however, in that the new administration will begin its work the day following the election, without the typical transition period.
 
These events also underscore the limitations of the current single five-year term presidential system in South Korea. While the Korean presidency is still powerful, the current system has proved to be ineffective as the president becomes a 'lame duck' after 3 or 4 years into office, making it difficult to pursue any long-term policy agenda. Korea needs constitutional reform to enact a greater balance of power and policy continuity.

Read more about this topic in a paper featured in the academic journal Asian Survey and an analysis piece in The Diplomat by Gi-Wook Shin and Rennie J. Moon, or watch a video featuring a panel discussion from earlier this year.

 

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Activists of all ages gather in Seoul city center for a candlelight rally on Dec. 10, 2016.
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
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The venue of this event has been moved to the Okimoto Conference room.

Dr. Ruger, a leading scholar of global and domestic health policy and public health, will speak about global and national health inequities, drawing from her research in Asia --including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam -- and Africa. With training in political economy, health policy, international relations, comparative social research and law, Dr. Ruger crosses disciplines to reexamine the principles and values that underlie health policy and public health and apply these principles empirically.  She created the health capability paradigm, challenging existing approaches and illuminating optimal health policies and she has developed an empirical approach to evaluate public health programs and health policies as they measure up to that paradigm.  Dr. Ruger’s scholarship has critically scrutinized the existing global health architecture in order to identify more effective global health policy responses linking public policy and law to global health theory at the global and national levels.  Dr. Ruger studies critical health policy and public health problems such as the equity and efficiency of health system access, financing, resource allocation, policy reform and the social determinants of health.  Her forthcoming book, Global Health Justice and Governance (OUP, in press), advances a theory of global health justice and governance called provincial globalism.

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Dr. Ruger received a bachelor’s degree in the honors program in political economy from the University of California-Berkeley, master’s degrees from Oxford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Yale University, a doctoral degree from Harvard University, and completed a post-doctoral fellowship at Harvard's Center for Population and Development. Dr. Ruger has authored over 100 publications and is internationally recognized for her leadership and work, which has been cited by the United Nations, World Bank, World Health Organization and United States Government.  She has been Principal Investigator and Co-Investigator on awards from the National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center, Hewlett Foundation, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and she was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship to complete Global Health Justice and Governance (OUP, in press).

Other papers:

1. Coping with Health Care Expenses Among Poor Households: Evidence from a Rural Commune in Vietnam: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1435832

2. Impact of Health Insurance on Health Care Treatment and Cost in Vietnam: A Health Capability Approach to Financial Protection: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1515733

3. Effect of Health Expenses on Household Capabilities and Resource Allocation in a Rural Commune in Vietnam: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1435820

4. The Changing Donor Landscape in Health Sector Aid to Vietnam: A Qualitative Case Study: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953615001719

5. An Alternative Framework for Analyzing Financial Protection in Health: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2139693

Jennifer Prah Ruger Amartya Sen Professor of Health Equity, Economics, and Policy, School of Social Policy and Practice, University of Pennsylvania
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Lt. Col. Patrick Winstead, who is serving as the 2016-17 senior military fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), will assume the position of vice wing commander of the U.S. Air Force’s 437th Airlift Wing, following completion of his fellowship at Stanford.
 
Based in Charleston, South Carolina, the 437th Airlift Wing flies and maintains one of the largest fleets of C-17A Globemaster III aircraft in the Air Force. The wing has 3,400 military and civilian personnel who work to support the Department of Defense’s worldwide airlift, tactical airdrop and aeromedical evacuation support missions.
 
“Patrick's selection as vice wing commander of the 437th Airlift Wing says volumes about his demonstrated leadership skills and potential,” said Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow and U.S.-Asia Security Initiative Director Karl Eikenberry. “He's been an outstanding member of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center over this past year and we wish him the very best at his next post.”
 
“This new assignment is an amazing opportunity to serve my country and serve the men and women of the 437th Airlift Wing while carrying out the nation’s call around the world,” said Winstead. “God blessed my family and I in coming to Stanford this year and we are blessed again to join the team in Charleston this summer.”
 
At Stanford, Winstead has been researching the strategic implications of unmanned systems operations in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, as well as escalation control in a multi-lateral, multi-alliance security environment.
 
Prior to his fellowship at Shorenstein APARC, Winstead served in leadership roles on the staff of the U.S. Pacific Command Operations Directorate in Hawaii, and spent nearly a decade of his Air Force career stationed in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., commander of U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), visited the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center last Friday. Throughout the day, he met with faculty, fellows and students and delivered a keynote speech to the broader Stanford community.
 
In his remarks titled Deterring Revisionist Powers, Harris described how the Indo-Asia-Pacific region fits in the context of the “global operating system,” a term used to illustrate the norms and standards that have defined the international system since the end of World War II. Harris also explained how USPACOM is ensuring continued international access to the shared domains of the Indo-Asia-Pacific, which include use of the air, sea and cyber domains.
 
Harris also led discussions on the strategic environment and security challenges that the United States faces. He engaged in an exchange with various audience members on current security dilemmas such as North Korea’s nuclear program, the South China Sea, and the state of U.S. alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.
 
The Chatham House Rule applied to Harris’ public presentation, and his subsequent meetings were closed to the public and news media.
 
Harris was later featured at a meeting held at the Highly Immersive Classroom at the Graduate School of Business. Faculty and students at Stanford conversed by way of video teleconference with affiliates at Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU), Beijing. U.S.-Asia Security Initiative Director Karl Eikenberry and SCPKU Executive Director Josh Cheng moderated the dialogue.
 
Admiral Harris’ visit to Stanford was co-sponsored by Ambassador Eikenberry and Admiral Gary Roughead, Robert and Marion Oster Distinguished Military Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
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Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., commander of U.S. Pacific Command, delivers remarks titled "Deterring Revisionist Powers" at the Bechtel Conference Center, March 3, 2017.
Debbie Warren
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