Stanford University

Implications of L’affaire Ahok, or, How Indonesian Democracy Dies

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Co-sponsored by the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies and the Southeast Asia Program

For much of the 2000s, scholars and activists lauded Indonesia’s surprisingly successful transition to democracy. Unlike Yugoslavia’s disintegration into smaller ethno-nationalist states, Indonesia witnessed the political marginalization of the military, the moderation of Islamists, the resolution of some regional rebellions, and the resurgence of a vibrant, plural, civil society. Recent years, however, have made imperfections in Indonesian democracy visible to the point where the death of Indonesian democracy is imaginable if not yet underway. Prof. Menchik will outline the role that Indonesian Islamic civil society may play in the death of Indonesian democracy.

Drawing on original survey data and interviews, as well as case studies in which the preferences of Nahlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah leaders have become visible, Prof. Menchik will argue that their values are compatible with both democracy and authoritarianism. While NU and Muhammadiyah exemplify the civic associational ties and democratic culture that are necessary for making democracy work, civic pluralism is not their only value. NU and Muhammadiyah have a hierarchy of values that they promote and defend, and they are willing to forgo civic pluralism in order to defend against the blasphemy of Islam. As a result, if Indonesian democracy dies, it will likely be a result of a coalition of Islamists and autocrats using appeals to populism and the defense of Islam in order to capture the lower classes and moderate Muslims, including many members of NU and Muhammadiyah.

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Jeremy Menchik, in addition to his professorship at Boston University, is a BU faculty affiliate in Political Science and Religious Studies. His teaching and research focus on comparative politics and the politics of religion. His first book, Islam and Democracy in Indonesia: Tolerance without Liberalism, won the International Studies Association award for the best book on religion and international relations published in 2016. His research has appeared in scholarly journals such as Comparative Studies in Society and History, Comparative Politics, and South East Asia Research, as well as in The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal, among other publications. 

 

Jeremy Menchik

Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St C331
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5656 (650) 723-9741
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Shorenstein Fellow (2011-2012)
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Jeremy Menchik joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research is in the area of comparative politics and international relations with a focus on religion and politics in the Muslim world, especially Indonesia. At Shorenstein APARC, he is preparing his dissertation for publication as a book titled, Tolerance Without Liberalism: Islamic Institutions in Twentieth Century Indonesia, and developing related projects on the origins of intolerance, the relationship between religion and nationalism, and political symbolism in democratic elections.

Menchik holds an MA and a PhD in political science from UW-Madison and a BA, also in political science, from the University of Michigan. He will be an assistant professor in international relations at Boston University beginning in 2013.

Assistant Professor, Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University
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Corporate Affiliates Program Welcomes 2017-18 Fellows

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As the new academic year gets underway, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s Corporate Affiliate Program is excited to welcome its new class of fellows to Stanford University:
 
  • Hiroto Akai, Ministry of Finance, Japan
  • Hong Cao, PetroChina
  • Michelle Chen, Yongjin Group
  • Takahito Inoshita, Kozo Keikaku Engineering
  • Kazumasa Ito, Mitsubishi Electric
  • Yoshihiro Kato, Future Architect, Inc.
  • Jiangbo Lu, PetroChina
  • Hiroki Morishige, Shizuoka Prefectural Government
  • Hiroshi Nishinaka, Ishin Co., Ltd.
  • Kazushi Nomura, Japan Patent Office
  • Takeshi Okamoto, Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
  • Ramya Raveendran, Reliance Life Sciences
  • Jeong Ah Ryou, Yozma Group
  • Hayato Watanabe, Hamamatsu Shinkin Bank
  • Toshiyuki Watanabe, The Asahi Shimbun
 
During their stay at Stanford University, the fellows will audit classes, work on English skills, and conduct individual research projects; at the end of the year, they will make a formal presentation on the findings from their research. During their stay at the center, they will have the opportunity to consult with Shorenstein APARC's scholars and attend events featuring visiting experts from around the world. The fellows will also participate in special events and site visits to gain a firsthand understanding of business, society, and culture in the United States.
 

 

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The 2017-18 Corporate Affiliate Fellows
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Shorenstein APARC published joint report on Northeast Asia security

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In association with the Sejong Institute, a think tank in South Korea, Shorenstein APARC published a report from the seventeenth session of the semiannual Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum held on June 29, 2017. The forum continued its focus on Northeast Asian regional dynamics, the North Korea problem, and the state of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. Participants engaged in candid, productive discussion about issues relating to these topics.

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Stanford Experts Examine Options for U.S. in Dealing with North Korea

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In his Tuesday address at the United Nations General Assembly, President Donald Trump threatened to “totally destroy North Korea” if the U.S. is forced to defend itself or its allies. Over the past month, North Korea conducted its largest nuclear test and fired its longest-traveling missile. The tension between the United States and the East Asian country continues to intensify.

Stanford News Service interviewed two Stanford experts about the escalating situation between the two countries and what options leaders have on the table when it comes to North Korea.

Michael R. Auslin is the inaugural Williams-Griffis Research Fellow in Contemporary Asia at the Hoover Institution. He specializes in global risk analysis, U.S. security and foreign policy strategy, and security and political relations in Asia.

Gi-Wook Shin is a professor of sociology, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the United Nations and individual countries, including the U.S., have imposed several sanctions on the country. Despite those efforts to pressure North Korea to denuclearize, the country’s nuclear capabilities have steadily increased. Why do you think these previous efforts did not work?

Auslin: North Korea has been intent on getting a nuclear weapon for decades, so the basic premise that Pyongyang would bargain away its program was likely faulty. Serious, comprehensive sanctions were never tried, in part because of Chinese and Russian opposition. By effectively taking the threat of the use of force off the table, previous administrations gave Pyongyang no incentive to take negotiations seriously. Previous North Korean undermining of agreements resulted in no serious cost and instead spurred Washington and its allies to offer further negotiations.

Shin: I think that the main obstacles to the previous efforts to pressure North Korea were China and Russia’s partial support for, and not-so-full implementation of, the sanctions. For instance, despite Beijing’s announcement that it would uphold the sanctions, border trade and economic activities between China and North Korea continued, and Beijing knowingly allowed this to happen. Additionally, North Korea is so used to living under difficult economic circumstances that it has found ways to be less affected by sanctions, learning how to get around sanctions – e.g., through smuggling – instead.

What does North Korea hope to gain by amassing a nuclear arsenal?

Auslin: North Korea has wanted to prevent the possibility of any foreign attack and a nuclear capability is the best means of achieving that goal. It also seeks to use any means to intimidate its neighbors and prevent them from undertaking any anti-North Korean action. It also may hope to end its international isolation by fielding a nuclear arsenal so that it can no longer be “ignored” by the international community.

Shin: By amassing a nuclear arsenal, North Korea hopes to secure the Kim regime internally and externally. Nuclear development is a main pillar of Kim’s byeongjin policy, a policy of simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and the economy. Once North Korea obtains nuclear state status, it will try to negotiate with the U.S. and South Korea for what it really wants. This could be economic support, international recognition, a peace treaty with the U.S., etc.

Are there still diplomatic means of addressing this situation that have not been explored? What are they and what is the likelihood they would be effective?

Shin: I am a believer in diplomatic power and continue to think that we shouldn’t give up on diplomacy, but it’s true that all previous diplomatic efforts with North Korea have failed, and it is questionable whether any diplomatic approach will be effective at this point. But one possible – perhaps final – approach that has not yet been explored is a Trump-Kim summit at which the two leaders might make a “big deal” – that is, to get North Korea to denuclearize in exchange for a normalization of their relationship, i.e., a peace treaty, between North Korea and the U.S. But this would be an extremely difficult thing to pull off, both politically and diplomatically.

Auslin: No package of incentives has been effective for the past quarter-century, and both bilateral and multilateral negotiations have failed. There is little reason to believe that there are untried diplomatic means that can make a breakthrough where so many have failed.

Can a diplomatic solution be reached without the cooperation of China?

Shin: China has always advocated diplomacy with North Korea, and I believe that China’s cooperation is essential, but I would also caution against relying or counting on China too heavily. From China’s perspective, the main reason for North Korea’s nuclearization has to do with the American threat – perceived or real – to its national security.

Auslin: China has shown little appetite for constructively solving the North Korean crisis through diplomatic means. Moreover, it is unclear that China retains significant political influence in Kim Jong-un’s era, even given the importance of Chinese trade with North Korea. However, if Washington and Beijing decided that a more coercive approach was necessary, then China would have a major role to play.

What are the military options on the table for the U.S.?

Auslin: Very few, short of all-out war. The North Korean nuclear program is too advanced and dispersed to be taken out by pinpoint bombing, and its missiles are on road-mobile launchers when not hidden, making them difficult to track and destroy. Seoul remains at risk from thousands of conventional artillery launchers that would certainly be used in the event of an American strike inside North Korea.

Shin: There are a number of possibilities, including a surgical strike, but given that North Korea would most likely retaliate by attacking South Korea – an action that would lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of South Korean citizens, plus a good number of U.S. soldiers and citizens in the country – it’s not a tempting option. The U.S. government and its military are well aware that any military action would be very dangerous.

What potential actions could lead to even more destabilization and should be avoided?

Shin: Any major military action should be avoided, as it would put both South Korea and possibly the U.S. at great risk. Given that North Korea will continue its efforts to become a nuclear state, and given that military options are not viable, we may have to find a way to live with a nuclear North Korea. It is a reality that we have worked hard to avoid, but time is not on our side. I hear more and more South Koreans calling for South Korea to go nuclear now and a similar movement could begin in Japan. This would mean that the region is entering into a very unfortunate and dangerous situation.

Alex Shashkevich is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

 

 
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India's National Innovation System

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Dr. Forbes chairs the Steam Engineering Companies of Forbes Marshall, India’s leading Steam Engineering and Control Instrumentation firm. 

Dr. Forbes was an occasional Lecturer and Consulting Professor at Stanford University from 1987 to 2004, where he developed courses on technology in newly industrializing countries. He received his Bachelors, Masters and PhD degrees from Stanford University.

Dr. Forbes is on the Board of several educational institutions and public companies. He is the Chairman of Centre for Technology, Innovation and Economic Research in Pune. He has long been an active member of CII and has, at various times, chaired the National Committees on Higher Education, Innovation, Technology and International Business. He was President of CII from 2016-2017.

 

About the Colloquia:

In 2016, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in collaboration with the Stanford Center for South Asia, launched a series of public lectures to broaden our understanding and discussion of contemporary India — its enormous domestic potential and problems, its place in the region and the world, and the ambitious agenda of the new Modi administration. Building on the strong engagement of those issues from across the university community and beyond, we are continuing the series, with generous support from the U.S. India Business Council, in the 2017-2018 academic year. We will  draw business, political, diplomatic and academic experts from the U.S. and India to explore topics including India’s innovation economy, India-China relations, India’s pivotal role in global health, and U.S.-India relations. 

 

This Colloquia is co-sponsored with 

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Naushad Forbes Co-Chairman, <i>Forbes Marshall</i>
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South Asia Colloquia

Former diplomat and national security advisor of South Korea to join the Korea Program as Koret Fellow

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Kyou Hyun Kim will join the Korea Program at Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as the program’s 2017-18 Koret Fellow.

A career diplomat by training, Kim most recently served as senior secretary to the president for foreign affairs and national security in South Korea from October 2015 to May 2017 during which he played a key role in enacting the North Korea human rights law. He led the South Korean negotiation team for inter-Korean dialogue that led to the reunion of separated families in 2014.

"Kyou Hyun Kim brings wealth of knowledge in the Korean affairs to Shorenstein APARC. He has decades of experience in diplomacy and national security, and it is very timely that he joins the Korea Program as this year’s Koret Fellow,” said Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein APARC.

Kim’s extensive diplomatic career includes serving as first vice foreign minister (2013-14), deputy foreign minister for political affairs (2012-13), ambassador for performance evaluation, and special advisor to the minister of foreign affairs (2010-12). He also served at the South Korean embassy in the United States as minister for political affairs. His 37 years of public service was mostly dealing with South Korea’s foreign and security policies and North Korean affairs.

During his fellowship, Kim will review South Korea’s past administrations’ policies toward North Korea and aim to focus on a path leading to unification of two Koreas for permanent peace and stability in and around the Korean Peninsula.  He will also attempt to map out ways to narrow the physical, economic, societal and identity gaps between South and North Korea in order to help the South Korean public to tolerate and accept North Koreans as equal citizens in a unified Korea. His two main research questions will be (1) how to build the internal capability for socioeconomic transformation in North Korea, and (2) how to build domestic support for reunification in South Korea.

Kim received a Doctor of Dental Surgery from the School of Dentistry at Seoul National University, and a Master of Public Administration from Harvard University.

Supported by the Koret Foundation, the fellowship brings leading professionals to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary Korean affairs with the broad aim of strengthening ties between the United States and Korea.

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Michelle Chen

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Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellow, 2017-18
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Michelle Chen is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2017-18.  Chen began her career in investment in 1992 and now works at Yongjin Group where she is responsible for its cross border investments.  She focuses on the sectors of finance, healthcare and education.

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Ashton Seung Cho

616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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Ashton Cho is a 2017-2018 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia. His research focuses on U.S. and Chinese foreign policy towards East Asia's regional institutions with a broader interest in U.S.-China relations, the political economy of East Asia, and qualitative and mixed research methods. During his time at Shorenstein APARC Ashton will be developing his book manuscript on how U.S. and China compete over East Asia's institutional architecture.

Ashton holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University and a BSc and MSc from the London School of Economics.

He is located in the Central West wing at C338-I-2 and can be reached at ashtoncho@stanford.edu. 

More information can be found on his personal webpage www.ashtoncho.com

 
2017-2018 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia

Abe Fellows Global Forum: Confronting Climate Change

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Hurricane Harvey and Irma have brought home to everyone the impact of climate change on our economy, our society, and our daily lives. Curtailing climate change is an urgent issue, one that requires international cooperation. In this session experts from Japan and the United States discuss some of the lessons that have been learned from Asia’s experiences. In the case of Japan, following the period of high growth (1960s-1980) which made Japan an economic power house, the government took strong steps to clean up polluted air and water. The Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in 2011 forced Japan to take even more aggressive action to reduce energy consumption and lessen its impact on the global environment. In contrast, the United States, the world’s largest economy, is one of the world’s largest polluters and recently made headlines when it withdrew from the Paris Agreement negotiated at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP2). California, and other state and municipal governments, are now taking the lead in US efforts to deal with climate change. Speakers will address questions on strategies for limiting carbon emissions and possibilities for future international cooperation on climate change.

Shorenstein APARC is pleased to host the Abe Fellows Global Forum (Abe Global) inaugural season’s flagship event. A new initiative of the Abe Fellowship Program, Abe Global brings the research and expertise of Abe Fellows on issues of global concern to broader audiences. The event is co-organized with the Social Science Research Council, in collaboration with the Center for Global Partnership of the Japan Foundation, which funds the Abe Fellowship Program

 

Abe Fellows Global Forum
Confronting Climate Change:
What Can the U.S. and Japan Contribute to Creating Sustainable Societies?

 

Conference Program

13:30-14:00     Registration

14:00-14:20     Welcome remarks

       Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

       Junichi Chano, Executive Director, CGP

       Opening Remarks

       George P. Shultz, Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution,

        Stanford University

14:20-14:45     Keynote Speech

                             Michael Armacost, Shorenstein APARC Fellow, APARC, Stanford University

14:45-15:00     Break

15:00-17:00     Panel Discussion “What Can the US and Japan Contribute to Creating Sustainable Societies?”

                  Moderator:      Takeo Hoshi

       Presenters:      Toshi H. Arimura,  Waseda Univeristy

                              Janelle Knox-Hayes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

                               Phillip Lipscy, Stanford University

                               Dana Buntrock, University of California, Berkeley

                               Michael Armacost, Stanford University

16:55                 Closing Remarks

                               Linda Grove, Consulting Director, SSRC 

17:00-18:00     Cocktail Reception

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Young leaders in Asia health policy

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Lisa Lee
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The Asia Health Policy Program, established in 2007, promotes a comparative understanding of health and health policy in the Asia-Pacific region through research and collaboration with regional scholars, a colloquium series on health and demographic change, and conferences and publications on comparative health policy topics. The program is committed to supporting young researchers through its Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellowship. Every year, the program director, Karen Eggleston, mentors recent doctoral graduates invited to come to Stanford to undertake original research on contemporary health policy of relevance to the Asia-Pacific region. The Program recently organized the Workshop of Young Leaders in Asia Health Policy in Beijing to celebrate its 10th anniversary.

Asia Health Policy Program alumni have been expanding around the globe. Young Kyung Do, from South Korea, was the first Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow in 2008-09. He earned his doctorate in health policy and management from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and is currently an associate professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at Seoul National University in South Korea. His research interests include aging and long-term care, the interplay of health, education and labor, health behavior, sleep and time use, risk literacy and risk communication, value of medical interventions, and quality assessment from the patient's perspective. Working papers: 

The Effect of Informal Caregiving on Labor Market Outcomes in South Korea

The Effect of Coresidence with an Adult Child on Depressive Symptoms among Older Widowed Women in South Korea: An Instrumental Variable Estimation

The Effect of Sleep Duration on Body Weight in Adolescents: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Brian K. Chen, from the United States, was the 2009-10 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. He earned his doctorate in business administration from the Haas Business School at the University of California, Berkeley. He is currently an associate professor in the Department of Health Services Policy and Management at the Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina in the United States.  He is also the associate director of Taiwan Doctoral Program housed in the Department of Health Services Policy and Management.  He has a unique combination of legal and economic expertise. He received a Juris Doctor from Stanford Law School in 1997. His research focuses on health policy, particularly with respect to health disparities, the burden of chronic illnesses and aging as well as the impact of incentives in health care organizations on provider and patient behavior.  Working papers: 

Strict Liability for Medical Injuries? The Impact of Increasing Malpractice Liability on Obstetrician Behavior: Evidence from Taiwan

Patient Copayments, Provider Incentives and Income Effects: Theory and Evidence from China’s Essential Medications List Policy

Qiulin Chen, from China, was the 2010-11 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. He earned his doctorate in economics from Peking University. He is currently an associate professor and director of the Social Security Research Division of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, and deputy director of the Research Center of Health Industry Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. His research interests are health economics and health policy, aging and social security, and public finance.

There were two Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellows from 2011until 2012. Ang Sun, from China, earned her doctorate in economics from Brown University in the United States. She is currently an associate professor at Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, China. Her research focuses on household and marriage, development, demography and health. The second fellow, Siyan Yi from Cambodia, was the first recipient of the Developing Asia Health Policy Fellowship for citizens of low-income countries in Asia. Dr. Yi earned his doctorate in international health sciences from the University of Tokyo. He is currently a director of KHANA Center for Population Health Research in Cambodia and adjunct associate professor at Center for Global Health Research of Touro University California in the United States. His research projects are in population health, including clinical epidemiology, social and behavioral determinants of health, health promotion, health system strengthening, and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

Marjorie Pajaron, from the Philippines, was the 2012-13 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. She earned her doctorate in economics from the University of Hawaii at Manoa. She is currently an assistant professor at the School of Economics, University of the Philippines. Her research lies at the intersection of applied microeconomics and health policy, with a focus on gender, health, development and labor economics.  Working papers: 

Remittances, Informal Loans, and Assets as Risk-Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Agricultural Households in Rural Philippines

The Roles of Gender and Education on the Intrahousehold Allocations of Remittances of Filipino Migrant Workers

Margaret Triyana, from Indonesia, was the 2013-14 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. She earned her doctorate in public policy from the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. She is currently a visiting assistant professor at the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre dame, in the United States. Prior to joining the Asia Health Policy Program, she was an Indonesia research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. She is particularly interested in how social policies affect health outcomes for the poor, early health investments, and health-seeking behavior in limited-resource settings.

Gendendarjaa Baigalimaa, from Mongolia, was the 2013-14 Visiting Scholar for Developing Asia Health Policy. A medical doctor by training, she studied cancer prevention and the impact of the National Cervical Cancer Program in Mongolia. Upon completion of her fellowship with the Asia Health Policy Program, she became a gynecological oncologist at Mungun Guur Hospital in Mongolia.

There were two Asia Health Policy postdoctoral fellows from 2014 until 2015. Pham Ngoc Minh, from Vietnam, who earned his doctorate in medical science from Kyushu University in Japan, is currently a visiting research fellow at Curtin University in Australia. His main research interests include the epidemiology and prevention of metabolic diseases, particularly diabetes, and depression in Asian adults. He also works on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and clinical studies to inform health policy. The second postdoctoral fellow was Phyu Phyu Thin Zaw, from Myanmar, who completed her doctorate in epidemiology from the Prince of Songkla University in Thailand. She is a research scientist at the Department of Medical Research in the Pyin Oo Lwin branch of the Ministry of Health and Sport in Myanmar. Currently, she is on leave to attend a master of public policy at Oxford University, in the United Kingdom.  Her current research work involves equitable allocation of healthcare resources, the current health system transformations, and the democratization process in Myanmar.

Darika Saingam, from Thailand, was the 2015-16 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. She earned her doctorate in epidemiology from the Prince of Songkla University in Thailand. Her research interests are public health, substance abuse and drug policy. She seeks to identify potentially effective policy directions suitable for Thailand. Before she joined the Asia Health Policy Program, she served as a researcher at Songkla University’s Epidemiology Unit. She has since continued her work on substance abuse research.

Kim Ngan Do, from Vietnam, was the 2016-17 Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow. She earned her doctorate in health policy and management from the College of Medicine at Seoul National University, South Korea. She has a strong interest in health system-related issues, especially health financing, human resources for health, and health care service delivery. She implemented comparative studies at the regional level and completed fieldwork in Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam.

Since its inception, the Asia Health Policy Program has supported numerous fellows to develop their expertise. They continue to pursue their academic and research interests, and have become experts in their fields. Alumni hold various academic, research and professional positions around the world, and are part of a vital community that promotes deeper understanding of comparative health policy through education, training and implementation of best healthcare practice.

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