2017 Holiday Party
Trump's Asia Trip
Commenting on President Trump's twelve-day trip to Asia, FSI senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Donald K. Emmerson noted that Trump "failed . . . to significantly alter the calculus brings to bear on North Korea."
Trump's approach to foreign policy, one based on forming personal relationships, might have caused him to get the mistaken idea "that he had made a real impact and everybody was getting along," Emmerson suggested.
Emmerson likewise questioned any substantial trade-related results coming out of the trip, saying that many touted achievements were either "already on the table" or were non-binding memoranda of understanding.
That said, Emmerson stressed that if in time President Trump were to realize the dearth of interest in bilateral trade deals, and that the "U.S. is making China great again," he could shift U.S. policy.
The full article is available from the Sinclair Broadcast Group.
Trump Arrives in China
Former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens spoke on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia" about President Trump's Asia trip on the eve of his arrival in China.
Stephens noted that in canceling a trip to the DMZ--more or less a presidential tradition on visits to Korea--Trump did the "right thing" by instead focusing on the "must-do" on this first trip of reassuring South Koreans on the U.S. commitment to its alliance with the Republic of Korea.
Both North Korean and Trump administration rhetoric seems to have cooled off in recent days; Stephens noted that Trump seems to have "gotten the message" about the importance of the relationship with South Korea and the level of nervousness in the country.
Ambassador Stephens commented on the feasibility of beginning talks with North Korea and what additional pressure might be required to get the North to the table. She noted that if denuclearizing were a precondition for talks, they wouldn't happen.
She speculated on what President Trump might ask the Chinese to do to up the pressure on North Korea, for example, cutting off oil exports. She also suggested that when it comes to talking about trade, the emphasis might be on announcing deals and Trump might act as "salesman-in-chief."
The full interview is available on Bloomberg TV.
Patient Cost Sharing and Healthcare Utilization in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design
This seminar exploits longitudinal claims data and a cost-sharing subsidy that has exempted copayment and coinsurance of healthcare service for children under the age of 3 in Taiwan. We conduct a regression discontinuity design by comparing the use of healthcare for children just before and just after their third birthdays. Our results show that lower level of cost sharing increases outpatient visits and discourages patients’ price-shopping behavior. In contrast, the utilization of inpatient care for children is price insensitive. Finally, we find little evidence on the impact of the cost-sharing subsidy on children’s short-run or long-run health.
Prof Lien’s research focuses on 1) physicians’ behavior; 2) the impact of the National Health Insurance program on the health care market; and 3) the impact of copayments on health care use. Prof Lien is a recipient of the Minister Wang Jin Naw Memorial Award for Best Paper in Health Care Management presented by the Kimma Chang Foundation in 2002, and the Golden Paper Award presented by the Chuang Yi-Chou Foundation in 2009. Prof. Lien has published papers in Health Services Research, Journal of Health Economics, Economic Inquiry, and other journals.
Welfare Analysis of the Universal Health Care Program in Thailand
I estimate and decompose the welfare benefit of Thailand's universal health care policy, also known as the “30 Baht program”. The total welfare impact of the 30 Baht program is defined as the amount of consumption that an enrollee would need to give up so as to leave her with the same expected utility as without the 30 Baht program. I find that the total welfare benefit is approximately 75 cents per dollar of government spending. The main source of the welfare effect can be attributed to improved consumption smoothing rather than increases in the consumption level. Using the difference in differences method, I find that the effect of the 30 Baht program on income is significantly positive, while the effect on consumption is slightly negative but not significant. This implies that the 30 Baht program has a positive impact on savings and future consumption, rather than current consumption.
Natt Hongdilokkul
Natt Hongdilokkul joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) during the 2017-2018 academic year as a postdoctoral scholar in Developing Asia Health policy. His research interests concern the effect of universal health care on household outcomes and welfare using micro-level panel data in Thailand. He received a PhD and an MA in Economics from Simon Fraser University, Canada, and another MA and a BA in Economics from Thammasat University, Thailand.
Boys, Girls, and Grandparents: The Impact of the Sex of Preschool-Age Children on Family Living Arrangements and Maternal Labour Supply
Abstract
This paper considers household decision making on living arrangements and maternal labor supply in an extended family with young children. In such a context, the decision making is driven by the concern that the companionship of children is a household public good and that family members share childcare and related domestic duties. The incentive to share children’s companionship is affected by son preference, whereas the economic motive of labor division hinges on the potential wage rate of the mother. Both channels play important roles in households with mothers whose wage rates are high, while sharing the companionship of (grand)sons is the main driving force in households with mothers whose wage rates are low. Using China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data, we find that among less-educated mothers, the incidence of a family co-residing with the paternal grandmother is at least 8.6 percentage points higher if the firstborn is a boy. At the same time, maternal labor supply increases by 2.9 days per month. By contrast, for educated mothers, the propensity for co-residence is higher, and the working hours are longer than for less-educated mothers, and the impact of the child’s sex is not significant. This paper not only provides a better understanding of the demographic and economic factors determining co-residence and intra-household time allocations, but also lends empirical support to policies aiming to increase female labor supply and improve the well-being of girls.
By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783
Drawing on archives, interviews, and his own experience in the Pentagon and White House, Green finds one overarching concern driving U.S. policy toward East Asia: a fear that a rival power might use the Pacific to isolate and threaten the United States and prevent the ocean from becoming a conduit for the westward free flow of trade, values, and forward defense. By More Than Providence works through these problems from the perspective of history's major strategists and statesmen, from Thomas Jefferson to Alfred Thayer Mahan and Henry Kissinger. It records the fate of their ideas as they collided with the realities of the Far East and adds clarity to America's stakes in the region, especially when compared with those of Europe and the Middle East.
Dr. Green is also a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a distinguished scholar at the Asia Pacific Institute in Tokyo. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Aspen Strategy Group, the America Australia Leadership Dialogue, the advisory boards of Radio Free Asia, Center for a New American Security, and the editorial boards of the Washington Quarterly and the Journal of Unification Studies in Korea. He also serves as a trustee at The Asia Foundation, senior adviser at the Asia Group, and as an associate of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Dr. Green has authored numerous books and articles on East Asian security, including most recently, By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783 . He received his master’s and doctoral degrees from SAIS and did additional graduate and postgraduate research at Tokyo University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received his bachelor’s degree in history from Kenyon College with highest honors. He holds a black belt in Iaido (sword) and has won international prizes on the great highland bagpipe.
Books will be available for sale at the event
Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, 3rd floor, Central
Strategies and Tactics to Address the Chronic Disease Burden in India
In this public colloquium, a leading expert on public health in India discusses strategies and tactics to address the chronic disease burden in India. Drawing from the cutting edge research of the Centre for Chronic Disease Control, D. Prabhakaran will discuss the prevention and management of chronic diseases in India and the developing world, including initiatives to create solutions for cardiovascular disease through translational research and human resource development.
Professor D. Prabhakaran is a cardiologist and epidemiologist by training. He is an internationally renowned researcher and is currently the Vice President- Research & Policy, Public Health Foundation of India, Executive Director of Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, India and Professor (Epidemiology) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK. He heads the Centre for Control of Chronic Conditions at PHFI which is a joint initiative of four leading institutions (Public Health Foundation of India, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi and Emory University). His work spans from mechanistic research to understand the causes for increased propensity of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among Indians, to developing solutions for CVD. Prof. Prabhakaran is a Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians, UK, Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, India, and an Adjunct Professor at the Emory University. He is member of Executive Council of the International Society of Hypertension (ISH) and Chair of the International Society of CVD Epidemiology and Prevention (ISCEP). He has received funding from NHLBI, Wellcome Trust, European Commission and several other international and national funding bodies. He has mentored over 40 post-doctoral and doctoral students so far. He has authored several chapters and over 375 scholarly papers with an H index of 59. He is the lead editor of the Cardiovascular Disease Volume of the latest Disease Control Priorities Project.
About the Colloquia:
In 2016, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in collaboration with the Stanford Center for South Asia, launched a series of public lectures to broaden our understanding and discussion of contemporary India — its enormous domestic potential and problems, its place in the region and the world, and the ambitious agenda of the new Modi administration. Building on the strong engagement of those issues from across the university community and beyond, we are continuing the series, with generous support from the U.S. India Business Council, in the 2017-2018 academic year. We will draw business, political, diplomatic and academic experts from the U.S. and India to explore topics including India’s innovation economy, India-China relations, India’s pivotal role in global health, and U.S.-India relations.
This Colloquia is co-sponsored with the U.S.-India Business Council
and the Stanford Center for South Asia
Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, 3rd floor, Central
The Future of Asia: Voices from Asia’s Next Generation
Asia’s transformation presents both challenges and opportunities at international, regional, and domestic levels. One key to a peaceful, prosperous Asia in the 21st century is good relations between the United States and China. But other challenges exist: nuclear proliferation, maritime security, violent conflict, environmental degradation, natural disasters, food security, cyber-security, and social and gender inequality, among others. Social transformation is outpacing political and institutional reform in many Asian countries, and the widening gap between state and society is a potent force for change. How will Asians address these challenges over the next one to two decades? What role will Asian women play in this transformation? How should the United States respond? The panelists and the discussant have contributed answers to these and other questions regarding Asia’s future in the latest iteration of The Asia Foundation’s quadrennial investigation and dissemination of Asian views of America’s role in Asia, including policy recommendations for the Trump administration. Stanford’s Southeast Asia Program director Don Emmerson will chair the session.
Chheang Vannarith
This panel discussion is co-sponsored by The Asia Pacific Research Center and The Asia Foundation with support from The Carnegie Corporation of New York
Colleagues, policymakers, and other friends of John W. Lewis