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North Korea successfully launches long-range rocket

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North Korea successfully launched a long-range rocket on December 12, despite a UN ban and a North Korean announcement about possible technical issues. KSP associate director David Straub comments on the motives and larger implications of the launch.
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The West Sea Satellite Launch Site in the northwest of Pyongyang, April 2012. | Reuters/Bobby Yip
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The United Nations and a World in Transition

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United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon presented a free public talk at Stanford on Thursday, Jan. 17.

Ban, who is the eighth secretary-general of the UN, will speak about the UN's role in creating opportunities out of the challenges posed by today's rapidly transitioning world.

"Times of transition are times of profound opportunity," he recently said during his acceptance speech for the Seoul Peace Prize. "The decisions we make in this period will have an impact for generations to come.”

Ban's initiatives as UN secretary-general have focused on promoting sustainable development; empowering women; supporting countries in crisis or instability; generating new momentum on disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation; and strengthening the UN. Among his many activities as secretary-general, he has successfully raised major pledges and financing packages for aid and crisis response, established the agency UN Women, and introduced new measures to promote UN transparency and efficiency.

Ban was born in the Republic of Korea in 1944, and he served for 37 years with the ROK Foreign Ministry, in roles including that of minister of foreign affairs and trade, foreign policy adviser to the president, and chief national security adviser to the president. He took office as UN secretary-general in January 2007, and was re-elected for a second term by the UN General Assembly in June 2011. Ban will serve as secretary-general until December 2016.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies are co-sponsoring the event. Ban's talk, part of the Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum, will kick off a series of activities commemorating Shorenstein APARC's thirtieth anniversary.

Founded in 2005, Shorenstein APARC's Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum regularly convenes senior leaders from across Asia and the Pacific to exchange ideas on current political, economic, and social dynamics in the region.

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Dinkelspiel Auditorium
471 Lagunita Drive
Stanford Campus

Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General of the United Nations Speaker
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Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum

Economic Aspects of Population Aging in China and India

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China and India are, by far, the two most populous countries in the world. As a result of declining fertility, increasing life expectancy, and the progression of large cohorts to the older ages, both of them, like all other countries, have aging populations. However, China’s total fertility rate began to fall much earlier and faster than India’s, and its life expectancy began to rise much earlier. As a result, China is aging rapidly, with the ratio of working-age to dependent population set to decline. In India, the ratio is still rising.

For a variety of reasons that encompass but also extend beyond demographic factors, both countries have experienced rapid economic growth, though China’s rate has been much higher than India’s. With the two populations aging at different rates, the relative economic growth paths of the two countries may also change.

This conference features research papers addressing the economic determinants or consequences of population aging in China or India. Some focus on China or India; some compare the two. A lunchtime panel will feature roundtable discussion of invited researchers.

The conference is sponsored by the Program on the Global Demography of Aging, the South Asia Initiative, the Asia Center, the Harvard-Yenching Institute, the Harvard China Fund, and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs (all at Harvard University), and the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (at Stanford University).

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Bechtel Conference Center

Jinkook Lee Speaker RAND Corporation
David Weir Speaker University of Michigan
Mark E. McGovern Speaker Harvard University
Ajay Mahal Speaker Monash University, Australia
David Bloom Speaker Harvard University
Indrani Gupta Speaker Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India
Ang Sun Speaker Renmin University, China
Anjini Kochar Speaker Stanford University
Kim Babiarz Speaker Stanford University
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert Speaker Stanford University
Wang Feng Speaker Brookings - Tsinghua
Conferences
Comparative Policy Responses to Demographic Change in East Asia

Shorenstein APARC turns thirty

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May 2013 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Over the three decades of the Center’s existence, immense change has taken place in the Asia-Pacific.

The early 1980s were a time for tremendous, transformative ripples of social, political, and economic change in many Asian countries; many of those changes set in motion trends, institutions, and events that are prominent aspects of the Asian landscape today.

In Northeast Asia, China embraced market reforms and opened its doors to foreign investment and trade, setting the stage for its role as a contemporary global leader. Japan experienced the peak of its post-war boom, consolidating its role as a pioneer in technology and manufacturing. South Korea underwent a dramatic transformation that, paired with its rapid economic growth, created a regional powerhouse. Southeast Asia emerged from the shadow of war to become a region of economic tigers and emerging powers.

At Stanford, the Northeast Asia-United States Forum on International Policy and the Center for International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) were established in May 1983 as independent, but complementary, entities. The Northeast Asia-United States Forum later grew into the Asia/Pacific Research Center and, in 2005, was endowed as the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). The two centers still closely collaborate on research and events. In the ensuing three decades, Shorenstein APARC expanded its reach beyond core expertise on Northeast Asia to the fast-developing region of Southeast Asia and to South Asia, which has emerged as a new center of power in the Asia-Pacific. The Center has focused increasingly on the crosscurrents of growing economic, cultural, and institutional integration in the region alongside a troubling rise of tensions driven by intensifying nationalism.

Today, Shorenstein APARC boasts five vibrant programs focusing on contemporary Asia and engaged in policy-oriented research, training, and publishing: the Asia Health Policy Program, Japan Studies Program, Korean Studies Program, Southeast Asia Forum, and the Stanford China Program. It also takes great pride in its unique Corporate Affiliates Program, whose alumni roster of over 300 Asian business, government, and media professionals continues to expand. Rounding out Shorenstein APARC’s Asia expertise, its South Asia Initiative has produced many important publications and events for over a decade.

On May 2, 2013, Shorenstein APARC will celebrate its anniversary with a special public symposium exploring Asia’s transformation over the past three decades, developments in U.S.-Asia relations, and the trajectory of Shorenstein APARC’s own history. You are invited to join us in marking this historic occasion.

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Encina Hall, a Stanford University landmark and home to Shorenstein APARC.
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The Ninth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum

In the ninth session of the Strategic Forum, former senior American and South Korean government officials and leading experts focused on leadership changes on and around the Korean Peninsula and the possible implications for North Korea policy, the U.S.-South Korea alliance, and Northeast Asia. They analyzed North Korean behavior under its new leader Kim Jong-un and the likelihood his regime would continue nuclear and missile development. Participants also compared and contrasted the North Korea and alliance policies of South Korea’s leading candidates in the December 19 presidential election. The session was hosted by the Sejong Institute, a top South Korean think tank, in Seoul, in association with the Korean Studies Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

 

PARTICIPANTS

Republic of Korea:

Chul Hyun Kwon, Chairman of the Board, The Sejong Foundation

Dae Sung Song, President, The Sejong Institute

Sang Woo Rhee, President, New Asia Research Institite

Jae Chang Kim, Co-Chairman, Council on US-Korea Security Studies

Myung Hwan Yu, Former Minister, Foreign Affairs & Trade Ministry

Yong Ok Park, Governor, PyungAn Nam-do Province (North Korea territory)

Se Hee Yoo, Chairman, Daily NK; Hanyang University

Ho Sup Kim, Professor, Chung-ang University; Chairman, KPSA (2012)

Young Sun Ha, Chairman, East Asia Institute

Jung Hoon Lee, Professor, Yonsei University

Seong Whun Cheon, Chief, North Korea Studies Center, KINU

Chol Ho Chong, Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute

United States:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Michael Armacost, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

Bruce Bennett, Senior Research Fellow, RAND Cooperation

Karl Eikenberry, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

Thomas Fingar, Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

David Kang, Director, Korean Studies Institute, University of Southern California

T.J. Pempel, Professor, Political Science Dept., University of California, Berkeley

Daniel C. Sneider, Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC

David Straub, Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC

Joyce Lee, Research Associate, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC 

Seoul, Korea

Workshops
Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum

Remittances, Informal Loans, and Assets as Risk-Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Agricultural Households in Rural Philippines

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This paper investigates whether agricultural households in the rural Philippines insure their consumption against income shocks and whether they use migration, remittances, informal loans, or assets as ex post risk-coping mechanisms. Since these households have limited access to formal insurance and credit markets, any shocks to their volatile income can have substantial impacts. Using panel data, and rainfall shocks as the instrumental variable for income shocks, this paper finds little evidence of effective risk-sharing within the networks of family and friends. 2SLS, OLS, and SUR estimates show that only about 16 percent of consumption is insured. While domestic remittances from other families replace about 51 percent of income decline, informal loans decrease by about 34 percent. Additional tests, however, reveal that agricultural households
engage in entrepreneurial activity when rainfall increases and children are somehow protected from the adverse effects of rainfall shocks. Hours spent on own family-operated businesses likewise increase.

Published:  Pajaron, Marjorie C. Remittances, informal loans, and assets as risk-coping mechanisms: evidence from agricultural households in rural Philippines. No. 2014-16. Discussion Paper, School of Economics, University of the Philippines, 2014.

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Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 32
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