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Highlights

 

  • Total DALYs increased across all five Asian societies between 2000 and 2019.
  • Population aging was identified as the primary driver of total DALY increases.
  • However, substantial decreases in DALYs per disease case were observed.
  • These trends were especially pronounced for non-communicable diseases.

 

Background

Rapid population aging in Asia has significantly increased the disease burden. However, there is limited research on the drivers of such changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

 

Objective

To examine the factors contributing to changes in DALYs in China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2000 and 2019.

 

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Changes in DALYs between 2010 and 2019 were decomposed into four factors: population size, age-sex structure, disease cases per person, and DALYs per disease case.

 

Results

From 2000 to 2019, total DALYs increased across all locations. While DALYs from injuries, communicable, maternal and neonatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies decreased, DALYs from non-communicable diseases increased. Decomposition analysis identified population aging (changes in age-sex structure) as the primary driver of increases in total DALYs, contributing an average of 33.6%. Population growth accounted for 15.3% on average. However, these increases were partially offset by decreases in DALYs per disease case, which fell by an average of -29.4%. Contributions from disease cases per person were relatively modest, averaging -3.4%. Notably, the decline in DALYs per disease case was more pronounced for non-communicable diseases, despite an overall increase in disease cases per person.

 

Conclusions

The increase in DALYs across these Asian societies was primarily driven by population aging and growth. However, DALYs per disease case decreased, suggesting improvements in disease management. Given the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in these societies, maintaining a focus on effective interventions remains crucial.

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A wavy, red-colored shape with text "Income-Based Inequalities in Health System Performance in the US and South Korea", the title of a paper in JAMA Health Forum.
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Health Policy
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Cynthia Chen
Karen Eggleston
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Visiting Postdoctoral Scholar at APARC, 2026
ning_zhang.png Ph.D.

Ning Zhang is a Visiting Postdoctoral Scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University beginning Spring 2026, and an Assistant Research Fellow at the Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on health policy and management, healthcare financing, and spatiotemporal epidemiology, with particular attention to integrated healthcare systems, medical insurance reform, and coordinated governance of healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceuticals in China.

Zhang earned his PhD in Public Management from Xi’an Jiaotong University, where he also completed his undergraduate studies. He was a joint PhD at the School of Public Health, Imperial College London. He has participated in more than 40 national and international research projects funded by organizations including the National Social Science Fund of China, the National Development and Reform Commission of PRC, the National Health Commission of PRC, and the World Health Organization.

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COVID-19 temperature testing in China.

The COVID-19 crisis was a profound stress test for health, economic, and governance systems worldwide, and its lessons remain urgent. The pandemic revealed that unpreparedness carries cascading consequences, including the collapse of health services, the reversal of development gains, and the destabilization of economies. The magnitude of global losses, measured in trillions of dollars and millions of lives, demonstrated that preparedness is not a discretionary expense but a foundation of macroeconomic stability. Countries that invested early in surveillance, resilient systems, and inclusive access managed to contain shocks and recover faster, proving that health security and economic security are inseparable.

For the Asia-Pacific, the path forward lies in transforming vulnerability into long-term resilience. Building pandemic readiness requires embedding preparedness within fiscal and development planning, not as an emergency measure but as a permanent policy function. The region’s diverse economies can draw on collective strengths in manufacturing capacity, technological innovation, and strong regional cooperation to institutionalize the four pillars— globally networked surveillance and research, a resilient national system, an equitable supply of medical countermeasures and tools, and global governance and financing—thereby maximizing pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Achieving this will depend on sustained political will and predictable financing, supported by the catalytic role of multilateral development banks and international financial institutions that can align public investment with global standards and private capital.

The coming decade presents a narrow but decisive window to consolidate these gains. Climate change, urbanization, and ecological disruption are intensifying the probability of new zoonotic spillovers. Meeting this challenge demands a shift from episodic response to continuous readiness, from isolated health interventions to integrated systems that link health, the environment, and the economy. Strengthening regional solidarity, transparency, and mutual accountability will be vital in ensuring that no country is left exposed when the next threat emerges.

A pandemic-ready Asia-Pacific is not an aspiration but an imperative. The lessons of COVID-19 call for institutionalized preparedness that transcends political cycles and emergency budgets. By treating health resilience as a global public good, the region can turn its experience of crisis into a model of sustained, inclusive security for the world.

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Building a Pandemic-Ready Asia-Pacific

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2025-2026
eunkyeong_lee.jpg Ph.D.

Eunkyeong Lee joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2025-2026 academic year. She currently serves as Research Fellow at the Korea Institute of Public Finance. While at APARC, she will be conducting research on healthcare systems and utilization among the elderly in South Korea.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-2026
yuli_xu.jpg Ph.D.

Yuli Xu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2025-2026 academic year. She recently obtained her Ph.D. in Economics at the University of California, San Diego. Her research focuses on Labor and Health Economics, with particular interests in how female labor force participation and fertility decisions are influenced by labor market institutions and past birth experiences.

In her thesis, "Gendered Impacts of Privatization: A Life Cycle Perspective from China," she demonstrates that the reduction in public sector employment has widened the gender gap in the labor market while narrowing the gender gap in educational attainment. She also finds that this structural shift has delayed marriage among younger generations.

In another line of research, Yuli examines the effects of maternity ward overcrowding. She finds that overcrowding reduces the use of medical procedures during childbirth without negatively impacting maternal or infant health. While it has no direct effect on subsequent fertility, she shows that mothers, especially those with a college degree, are more likely to switch to another hospital for subsequent births after experiencing overcrowding.

During her time at APARC, Yuli will further investigate patient-physician relationships in the Chinese healthcare system, where patients have considerable flexibility in choosing their doctors at each visit. She will explore the persistence of these relationships and examine how patients respond when their regular doctors are temporarily unavailable.

Yuli also holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of International Business and Economics in China.

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Abstract

 

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Introduction

Health care spending in South Korea is associated with improvements in health. However, it remains unclear whether the value of this spending is equally distributed across income groups.

 

Methods

We analyzed lifetime health care spending and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by income quintile among South Korean adults from 2010 to 2018. We then calculated the ratio of changes in health care spending to changes in QALE to estimate the value of health care spending across income groups. Additionally, we investigated mechanisms underlying income-related differences in the value of health care.

 

Results

Assuming 80% of QALE gains are attributable to health care, adults in the lowest income quintile received the least value, incurring $78,209 per QALE gained. However, middle- and higher-income quintiles achieved greater value ($47,831, $46,905, $31,757, and $53,889 from the second to highest quintile), although the highest value did not occur in the highest-income quintile. The higher spending per QALE gained in the lowest income quintile reflects smaller improvements in QALE, likely driven by poorer baseline health and greater unmet needs.

 

Conclusion

These findings highlight structural inequities in the South Korea health system and emphasize the need for targeted policies to promote equitable health care value.

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Health Affairs Scholar
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Karen Eggleston
Young Kyung Do
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Issue 8
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Shorenstein APARC's annual report for the academic year 2023-24 is now available.

Learn about the research, publications, and events produced by the Center and its programs over the last academic year. Read the feature sections, which look at the historic meeting at Stanford between the leaders of Korea and Japan and the launch of the Center's new Taiwan Program; learn about the research our faculty and postdoctoral fellows engaged in, including a study on China's integration of urban-rural health insurance and the policy work done by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL); and catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, publications, and policy outreach. Download your copy or read it online below.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2024-2025
Mai Nguyen.JPG Ph.D.

Mai Nguyen joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2024-2025 academic year. She holds a PhD in health services and health policy from Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, and a Master of Science from Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University.

Her doctoral research focused on how the expanding private healthcare sector can be managed more effectively to better supplement public health services to achieve universal health coverage in Vietnam. The study analyzed large and complex national health datasets from two consecutive Household Living Standard Surveys, clinical hospital data at national levels and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders of Vietnam's health system to investigate consumers' choice for private and public health care services in Vietnam. Her research findings have implications for policy change in terms of harnessing and regulating private health services in Vietnam and other Asia-Pacific countries, especially low and middle-income countries.

Dr. Nguyen has worked as a senior health specialist at Vietnam Ministry of Health. Her research interest stems from her professional experience in health policy and program management, including health policy and management, health services, private healthcare and health equity. Her works have been published in many Q1-international journals such as BMC Public Health, BMC Health Services Research, Human Resources for Health and International Journal of Health Policy and Management.

At APARC, Dr. Nguyen extended her research on the roles of private healthcare to supplement the public health sector to address the growing burden of chronic diseases and conditions in Vietnam.

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2024
huixia_wang_2024_headshot.jpg Ph.D.

Huixia Wang joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2024 calendar year. She is currently Associate Professor of Economics at Hunan University. While at APARC, she conducted research examining the effects of air pollution on healthcare expenditure and children's health in China.

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Cover of the journal Social Indicators Research
This study investigates the strength and significance of the associations of health workforce with multiple health outcomes and COVID-19 excess deaths across countries, using the latest WHO dataset.

Multiple log-linear regression analyses, counterfactual scenarios analyses, and Pearson correlation analyses were performed. The average density of health workforce and the average levels of health outcomes were strongly associated with country income level. A higher density of the health workforce, especially the aggregate density of skilled health workers and density of nursing and midwifery personnel, was significantly associated with better levels of several health outcomes, including maternal mortality ratio, under-five mortality rate, infant mortality rate, and neonatal mortality rate, and was significantly correlated with a lower level of COVID-19 excess deaths per 100K people, though not robust to weighting by population.

The low density of the health workforce, especially in relatively low-income countries, can be a major barrier to improving these health outcomes and achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); however, improving the density of the health workforce alone is far from enough to achieve these goals. Our study suggests that investment in health workforce should be an integral part of strategies to achieve health-related SDGs, and that achieving non-health SDGs related to poverty alleviation and expansion of female education are complementary to achieving both sets of goals, especially for those low- and middle-income countries. In light of the strains on the health workforce during the current COVID-19 pandemic, more attention should be paid to health workforce to strengthen health system resilience and long-term improvement in health outcomes.

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Social Indicators Research
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Karen Eggleston
Jinlin Liu
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