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COVID-19 temperature testing in China.

The COVID-19 crisis was a profound stress test for health, economic, and governance systems worldwide, and its lessons remain urgent. The pandemic revealed that unpreparedness carries cascading consequences, including the collapse of health services, the reversal of development gains, and the destabilization of economies. The magnitude of global losses, measured in trillions of dollars and millions of lives, demonstrated that preparedness is not a discretionary expense but a foundation of macroeconomic stability. Countries that invested early in surveillance, resilient systems, and inclusive access managed to contain shocks and recover faster, proving that health security and economic security are inseparable.

For the Asia-Pacific, the path forward lies in transforming vulnerability into long-term resilience. Building pandemic readiness requires embedding preparedness within fiscal and development planning, not as an emergency measure but as a permanent policy function. The region’s diverse economies can draw on collective strengths in manufacturing capacity, technological innovation, and strong regional cooperation to institutionalize the four pillars— globally networked surveillance and research, a resilient national system, an equitable supply of medical countermeasures and tools, and global governance and financing—thereby maximizing pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Achieving this will depend on sustained political will and predictable financing, supported by the catalytic role of multilateral development banks and international financial institutions that can align public investment with global standards and private capital.

The coming decade presents a narrow but decisive window to consolidate these gains. Climate change, urbanization, and ecological disruption are intensifying the probability of new zoonotic spillovers. Meeting this challenge demands a shift from episodic response to continuous readiness, from isolated health interventions to integrated systems that link health, the environment, and the economy. Strengthening regional solidarity, transparency, and mutual accountability will be vital in ensuring that no country is left exposed when the next threat emerges.

A pandemic-ready Asia-Pacific is not an aspiration but an imperative. The lessons of COVID-19 call for institutionalized preparedness that transcends political cycles and emergency budgets. By treating health resilience as a global public good, the region can turn its experience of crisis into a model of sustained, inclusive security for the world.

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Building a Pandemic-Ready Asia-Pacific

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2025-2026
eunkyeong_lee.jpg Ph.D.

Eunkyeong Lee joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2025-2026 academic year. She currently serves as Research Fellow at the Korea Institute of Public Finance. While at APARC, she will be conducting research on healthcare systems and utilization among the elderly in South Korea.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2025-2026
yuli_xu.jpg Ph.D.

Yuli Xu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2025-2026 academic year. She recently obtained her Ph.D. in Economics at the University of California, San Diego. Her research focuses on Labor and Health Economics, with particular interests in how female labor force participation and fertility decisions are influenced by labor market institutions and past birth experiences.

In her thesis, "Gendered Impacts of Privatization: A Life Cycle Perspective from China," she demonstrates that the reduction in public sector employment has widened the gender gap in the labor market while narrowing the gender gap in educational attainment. She also finds that this structural shift has delayed marriage among younger generations.

In another line of research, Yuli examines the effects of maternity ward overcrowding. She finds that overcrowding reduces the use of medical procedures during childbirth without negatively impacting maternal or infant health. While it has no direct effect on subsequent fertility, she shows that mothers, especially those with a college degree, are more likely to switch to another hospital for subsequent births after experiencing overcrowding.

During her time at APARC, Yuli will further investigate patient-physician relationships in the Chinese healthcare system, where patients have considerable flexibility in choosing their doctors at each visit. She will explore the persistence of these relationships and examine how patients respond when their regular doctors are temporarily unavailable.

Yuli also holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of International Business and Economics in China.

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Abstract

 

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Introduction

Health care spending in South Korea is associated with improvements in health. However, it remains unclear whether the value of this spending is equally distributed across income groups.

 

Methods

We analyzed lifetime health care spending and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by income quintile among South Korean adults from 2010 to 2018. We then calculated the ratio of changes in health care spending to changes in QALE to estimate the value of health care spending across income groups. Additionally, we investigated mechanisms underlying income-related differences in the value of health care.

 

Results

Assuming 80% of QALE gains are attributable to health care, adults in the lowest income quintile received the least value, incurring $78,209 per QALE gained. However, middle- and higher-income quintiles achieved greater value ($47,831, $46,905, $31,757, and $53,889 from the second to highest quintile), although the highest value did not occur in the highest-income quintile. The higher spending per QALE gained in the lowest income quintile reflects smaller improvements in QALE, likely driven by poorer baseline health and greater unmet needs.

 

Conclusion

These findings highlight structural inequities in the South Korea health system and emphasize the need for targeted policies to promote equitable health care value.

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Karen Eggleston
Young Kyung Do
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Issue 8
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Shorenstein APARC's annual report for the academic year 2023-24 is now available.

Learn about the research, publications, and events produced by the Center and its programs over the last academic year. Read the feature sections, which look at the historic meeting at Stanford between the leaders of Korea and Japan and the launch of the Center's new Taiwan Program; learn about the research our faculty and postdoctoral fellows engaged in, including a study on China's integration of urban-rural health insurance and the policy work done by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL); and catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, publications, and policy outreach. Download your copy or read it online below.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2024-2025
Mai Nguyen.JPG Ph.D.

Mai Nguyen joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2024-2025 academic year. She holds a PhD in health services and health policy from Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, and a Master of Science from Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University.

Her doctoral research focused on how the expanding private healthcare sector can be managed more effectively to better supplement public health services to achieve universal health coverage in Vietnam. The study analyzed large and complex national health datasets from two consecutive Household Living Standard Surveys, clinical hospital data at national levels and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders of Vietnam's health system to investigate consumers' choice for private and public health care services in Vietnam. Her research findings have implications for policy change in terms of harnessing and regulating private health services in Vietnam and other Asia-Pacific countries, especially low and middle-income countries.

Dr. Nguyen has worked as a senior health specialist at Vietnam Ministry of Health. Her research interest stems from her professional experience in health policy and program management, including health policy and management, health services, private healthcare and health equity. Her works have been published in many Q1-international journals such as BMC Public Health, BMC Health Services Research, Human Resources for Health and International Journal of Health Policy and Management.

At APARC, Dr. Nguyen extended her research on the roles of private healthcare to supplement the public health sector to address the growing burden of chronic diseases and conditions in Vietnam.

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2024
huixia_wang_2024_headshot.jpg Ph.D.

Huixia Wang joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2024 calendar year. She is currently Associate Professor of Economics at Hunan University. While at APARC, she conducted research examining the effects of air pollution on healthcare expenditure and children's health in China.

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Cover of the journal Social Indicators Research
This study investigates the strength and significance of the associations of health workforce with multiple health outcomes and COVID-19 excess deaths across countries, using the latest WHO dataset.

Multiple log-linear regression analyses, counterfactual scenarios analyses, and Pearson correlation analyses were performed. The average density of health workforce and the average levels of health outcomes were strongly associated with country income level. A higher density of the health workforce, especially the aggregate density of skilled health workers and density of nursing and midwifery personnel, was significantly associated with better levels of several health outcomes, including maternal mortality ratio, under-five mortality rate, infant mortality rate, and neonatal mortality rate, and was significantly correlated with a lower level of COVID-19 excess deaths per 100K people, though not robust to weighting by population.

The low density of the health workforce, especially in relatively low-income countries, can be a major barrier to improving these health outcomes and achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); however, improving the density of the health workforce alone is far from enough to achieve these goals. Our study suggests that investment in health workforce should be an integral part of strategies to achieve health-related SDGs, and that achieving non-health SDGs related to poverty alleviation and expansion of female education are complementary to achieving both sets of goals, especially for those low- and middle-income countries. In light of the strains on the health workforce during the current COVID-19 pandemic, more attention should be paid to health workforce to strengthen health system resilience and long-term improvement in health outcomes.

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Social Indicators Research
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Karen Eggleston
Jinlin Liu
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Noa Ronkin
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As the COVID-19 pandemic remains a crucial global public health threat, pandemic control measures such as lockdowns and mobility restrictions continue to disrupt the provision of health services, leading to reduced healthcare use. Indeed, evidence shows the pandemic has emerged as a particular challenge for people with chronic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension. Yet there is limited data comparing the pandemic’s impact on access to care and the severity of chronic disease symptoms at the population level across Asia.

Now a new collaborative study, published by the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, addresses this limitation. The study co-authors, including APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program Director and FSI Senior Fellow Karen Eggleston, offer the first report comparing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated mobility restrictions on people with chronic conditions at different stages of socio-demographic and economic transitions in five Asian regions — India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam.

The findings show that the pandemic has disproportionately disrupted healthcare access and worsened diabetes symptoms among marginalized and rural populations in Asia. Moreover, the pandemic’s broad social and economic impact has adversely affected population health well beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19, with the resulting delayed and foregone care leading to uncertain longer-term effects.


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Unintended Adverse Consequences

Routine screening, risk factor control, and continuity of care for non-communicable diseases are a global challenge. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the challenge even further. Existing reports show the pandemic has particularly adverse impacts on essential prevention and treatment services for people with chronic conditions. These reductions in health services arose from pandemic-associated factors such as mobility restrictions, lack of public transport, and lack of health workforce.

Eggleston and a group of colleagues set out to provide evidence on how the pandemic has impacted chronic disease care in diverse settings across Asia during COVID-19-related lockdowns. Using standardized questionnaires, the researchers surveyed 5672 participants aged 55.9 to 69.3 years with chronic conditions in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam. The researchers collected data on participants’ demographic and socio-economic status, comorbidities, access to healthcare, employment status, difficulty in accessing medicines due to financial and nonfinancial (COVID-19 related) reasons, treatment satisfaction, and severity of their chronic condition symptoms.

If no immediate actions are taken to mitigate pandemic impacts, the Asia-Pacific region will struggle to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4 to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases […] and to promote mental health and wellbeing.
Karen Eggleston et al.

The results show that the pandemic’s broad social and economic impact has adversely affected population health well beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19. Study participants with chronic conditions faced significant challenges in managing their symptoms during the pandemic. They experienced a loss of income and difficulties in accessing healthcare or medications, with the resulting delayed and foregone care leading to uncertain longer-term effects. For a nontrivial portion of participants, these factors are associated with the worsening of diabetes symptoms. The threat is twofold among people living in rural populations with limited access, availability, and affordability of healthcare services.

A Global Health Priority

The unintended adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on chronic disease care may also further aggravate inequality in health outcomes. “If the trend continues and no immediate actions are taken to mitigate pandemic impacts,” Eggleston and her colleagues caution, then “the Asia-Pacific region will struggle to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by a third relative to 2015 levels and to promote mental health and wellbeing.”

Addressing the pandemic’s unintended negative social and economic impacts on chronic disease care is a global health priority, determine the researchers. They propose several measures to help provide timely care for people with chronic conditions in resource-constrained settings. These include implementing innovations in healthcare delivery models to improve the adoption of healthy lifestyle changes and self-management of chronic disease and mild COVID-19 symptoms, increasing investment in interventions to provide social and economic support to disadvantaged populations, and strengthening primary healthcare infrastructure and support of healthcare providers.

The study was supported in part by funding from Shorenstein APARC’s faculty research award, Stanford King Center for Global Development, and a seed grant from the Stanford Center for Asian Health Research and Education.

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Strengthening the Frontline: How Primary Health Care Improves Net Value in Chronic Disease Management

Empirical evidence by Karen Eggleston and colleagues suggests that better primary health care management of chronic disease in rural China can reduce spending while contributing to better health.
Strengthening the Frontline: How Primary Health Care Improves Net Value in Chronic Disease Management
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A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations

A research team including APARC's Karen Eggleston developed a new simulation model that supports the economic evaluation of policy guidelines and clinical treatment pathways to tackle diabetes and prediabetes among Chinese and East Asian populations, for whom existing models may not be applicable.
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Bargaining Behind Closed Doors: Why China’s Local Government Debt Is Not a Local Problem

New research in 'The China Journal' by APARC’s Jean Oi and colleagues suggests that the roots of China’s massive local government debt problem lie in secretive financing institutions offered as quid pro quo to localities to sustain their incentive for local state-led growth after 1994
Bargaining Behind Closed Doors: Why China’s Local Government Debt Is Not a Local Problem
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A makeshift barricade is seen in front of a residential area to restrict movement and control COVID-19 spread in Hanoi, Vietnam.
A makeshift barricade is seen in front of a residential area to restrict movement and control COVID-19 spread, September 2021, Hanoi, Vietnam.
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In the first report of its kind comparing the impacts of the pandemic on people with chronic conditions in five Asian regions, researchers including APARC’s Karen Eggleston document how the pandemic’s broad social and economic consequences negatively affected population health well beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19.

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Cover of Issue 34(1) of Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, January 2022
This study aims to provide evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted chronic disease care in diverse settings across Asia. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess the health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam using standardized questionnaires.

Overall, 5672 participants with chronic conditions were recruited from 5 countries. The mean age of the participants ranged from 55.9 to 69.3 years. A worsened economic status during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by 19% to 59% of the study participants. Increased difficulty in accessing care was reported by 8% to 24% of participants, except Vietnam: 1.6%. The worsening of diabetes symptoms was reported by 5.6% to 14.6% of participants, except Vietnam: 3%. In multivariable regression analyses, increasing age, female participants, and worsened economic status were suggestive of increased difficulty in access to care, but these associations mostly did not reach statistical significance. In India and China, rural residence, worsened economic status and self-reported hypertension were statistically significantly associated with increased difficulty in access to care or worsening of diabetes symptoms.

These findings suggest that the pandemic disproportionately affected marginalized and rural populations in Asia, negatively affecting population health beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19.

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