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Southeast Asia is geographically and economically dwarfed by China. But that does not mean the region must inevitably bend to the will and ambitions of the PRC. Like the small but nimble mousedeer of local mythology, Southeast Asia may outwit the larger dragon through careful navigation and shrewd negotiation. Can this diverse region rally together, or will differences in culture, history, and society continue to hobble efforts to create a coordinated response to China's influence? The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century, a new edited volume by Donald K. Emmerson, seeks to understand this dynamic and give context on the complexities of Southeast Asian geopolitics both within the region and in a global context.

On October 22, 2020, Emmerson virtually joined the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the New York Southeast Asia Network, along with Ann Marie Murphy of Seton Hall, to discuss The Deer and the Dragon and further explore the region's standing in relation to current international affairs. Watch below:

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An audio recording of the event is also available for listening below:

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Cover of the book 'The Deer and the Dragon' on the background of a Southeast Asia map
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New Book Analyzes the Dynamics of Inequality Between China and Southeast Asia

In a new volume, Donald Emmerson explores how the ASEAN nations are navigating complex political and policy issues with China during a time when political cohesion within ASEAN is fractured and China is increasingly assertive in its goals.
New Book Analyzes the Dynamics of Inequality Between China and Southeast Asia
Leaders from the ASEAN league gather onstage at the 33rd ASEAN Summit in 2018 in Singapore.
Commentary

Southeast Asia's Approach to China and the Future of the Region

In an interview with The Diplomat, Donald Emmerson discusses how factors like the South China Sea, U.S.-China competition, and how COVID-19 are affecting relations between Southeast Asia, China, and the United States.
Southeast Asia's Approach to China and the Future of the Region
Fiery Cross Reef, Spratly Islands
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Strategy in the South China Sea

Donald K. Emmerson analyzes China’s tactics in the South China Sea and how the countries of Southeast Asia are reacting to the tensions in the disputed waterway.
Strategy in the South China Sea
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A discussion of contemporary Southeast Asian politics with Donald K. Emmerson and Ann Marie Murphy at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
Donald Emmerson joins the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations for a discussion of his latest edited volume, "The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century."
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Southeast Asia Program Director Donald Emmerson joined the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations for a discussion with Ann Marie Murphy on his new edited volume, "The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century."

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 APARC South Asia research Initiative presents: Fall 2020 Colloquium Series on
India-China Strategic Competition
 

Washington DC time:  7:00pm-8:30pm, 9-Nov. 2020
Sydney, Australia time: 11:00am-12:30pm, 10-Nov. 2020 

Expectations of India’s rise have been dented in 2020. Amid lackluster economic performance and creeping socio-political illiberalism, India also suffered a major strategic setback. Chinese forces that crossed the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh remain encamped at several tactically-valuable points, and although talks continue, India has few visible options to force a return to the status quo ante. India now sees China is more clearly adversarial terms – but does it have what it takes to compete effectively? This conversation will conclude the APARC South Asia’s fall 2020 colloquium series on the India-China strategic competition with a wider and deeper look at India’s political and military power. We will discuss India’s ability to deter and balance China, its strategies to build national power and align with new partners, and the prospects for the competition in 2021 and beyond.
 

Ashley Tellis29kb Ashley Tellis29Kb
Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Previously he was commissioned into the Foreign Service and served as senior adviser to the ambassador at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. While serving as the senior adviser to the Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, he was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement with India. He also served on the National Security Council staff as special assistant to President George W. Bush and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia. Prior to his government service, Tellis was senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and professor of policy analysis at the RAND Graduate School. He is a counselor at the National Bureau of Asian Research and serves as an adviser to the Chief of Naval Operations. He is the author of India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture (2001), co-author of Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (2000), and co-editor of the sixteen latest annual volumes of Strategic Asia. He earned his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago.

 

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Arzan Tarapore
Arzan Tarapore is the South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, where he leads the newly-restarted South Asia research initiative. He is also a senior nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. His research focuses on Indian military strategy and contemporary Indo-Pacific security issues. He previously held research positions at the RAND Corporation, the Observer Research Foundation, and the East-West Center in Washington. Prior to his scholarly career, he served as an analyst in the Australian Defence Department, which included operational deployments as well as a diplomatic posting to Washington, DC. Tarapore holds a PhD in war studies from King’s College London.

 

via ZOOM Webinar
Register:  https://bit.ly/2IPGZjS

Ashley J. Tellis <br><i>Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace</i><br><br>
Arzan Tarapore <br><i>South Asia Research Scholar, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University</i><br><br>
Seminars
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This event is held virtually via Zoom. Please register for the webinar via the below link.

Registration Link: https://bit.ly/2SS6DpY

 

This event is co-sponsored by the Shorenstein APARC Japan Program and China Program.

Japan's economic challenge to the United States in the 1980s aroused more concern in the United States than people now realize. Japan took some very effective steps to stop it. China's challenge plays out across the economic, military, technological, and global influence spheres. China has not yet taken steps to stop it and the tensions are increasingly serious and show no signs of diminishing. Japan has also found better ways to reduce tensions with China than has the United States. While the circumstances are different between the 1980s and today, Japan’s dealings with the United States in the 1980s might offer some lessons for China today. Dr. Ezra Vogel, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University, will discuss these topics and more during this webinar. The event will conclude with an audience Q&A moderated by Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui and China Program Director Jean Oi.

SPEAKER

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Portrait of Dr. Ezra Vogel, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University

Professor Ezra F. Vogel is Professor Emeritus at Harvard University. Vogel received his PhD at Harvard in 1958 in Sociology in the Department of Social Relations and was a professor at Harvard from 1967-2000. In 1973, he succeeded John Fairbank to become the second Director of Harvard's East Asian Research Center. At Harvard, he served as director of the US-Japan Program, director of the Fairbank Center, and as the founding director of the Asia Center. From fall 1993 to fall 1995, Vogel was the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council in Washington. His book Japan As Number One (1979), in Japanese translation, became a best seller in Japan, and his book Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (2011), in Chinese translation, became a best seller in China. He lectures frequently in Asia, in both Chinese and Japanese. He has received numerous honors, including eleven honorary degrees.

Via Zoom Webinar.

Registration Link: https://bit.ly/2SS6DpY

Ezra Vogel, Professor Emeritus <br>Harvard University</br>
Seminars

In recent years, we have witnessed a worldwide trend of "democratic depression" in both young and established democracies, where the backsliding from democracy is facilitated by various forces such as populism, nationalism, partisan polarization, and post-truth. Korea is no exception. While the signs of democratic decline are subtle and disguised under the rule of law, they are producing piecemeal erosions of liberal democracy and pluralism in many corners of the Korean society. As a timely warning against the gradual decline of democratic norms and values, this 3-part conference seeks to examine the forces that endanger the Korean democracy and aims to offer some concrete policy prescriptions to remedy the existing and growing signs of democratic decline.

Topics Discussed:

Day 1: November 12, 2020 (4PM-7PM)

  • Political culture and polarization: Pitfall of political over-participation or “street-democracy"
  • Underdevelopment of party politics: Factionalism, weak institutionalization, and poor appreciation
  • Erosion in balance of power: Courts losing legitimacy and respect with politicization
  • Uses and misuses of nationalism in politics

Day 2: November 13, 2020 (4PM-6PM)

  • Two divergences in South Korea’s Economy: Regional and generational disparities
  • Challenges of post-truth: Politicization and polarization of the press, social media, disinformation
  • Education and its impact on civic value and generational gap

Day 3: November 19, 2020 (4PM-6:15PM)

  • Politicization of civil society: Losing function as watchdog of power, former democratic activists becoming new authoritarian leaders
  • How the rise of populist regime affects foreign policy
  • Korean democracy in comparative perspectives

The conference papers will be published as an edited volume.

Via Zoom

Conferences
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Most people attribute the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to Beijing’s imperialist ambitions. In her talk, Professor Min Ye will go beyond top-level rhetoric, however, and investigate BRI’s origins, its implementation, and its on-the-ground effects inside China. She will unpack different local governments' approaches to the BRI by discussing how subnational entities have leveraged Beijing’s grand strategy and how the implementation of projects and programs related to the BRI facilitate local economic agendas. China’s local developmentalism, which has undergirded not only the BRI but also other national-level strategies (like the Western Development Program and China Goes Global policy), has propelled the Chinese economy from a middle power in 1998 to a superpower in 2018. The talk will conclude with a discussion of COVID-19’s impact on China’s BRI as well as preliminary findings from Professor Ye’s current research into other state-mobilized development initiatives in China.
 

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Portrait of Professor Min Ye
Min Ye is an Associate Professor at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University. Her research lies in the nexus between domestic and global politics and economics and security, focusing on China, India, and regional relations. Her publications include The Belt, Road, and Beyond: State-Mobilized Globalization in China 1998 -- 2018 (Cambridge University Press, 2020), Diasporas and Foreign Direct Investment in China and India (Cambridge University Press, 2014), and The Making of Northeast Asia (with Kent Calder, Stanford University Press, 2010). She has received a Smith Richardson Foundation grant (2016-2018), the East Asia Peace, Prosperity, and Governance Fellowship (2013), Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program post-doctoral fellowship (2009-2010), and Millennium Education Scholarship in Japan (2006). In 2014-2016, Min Ye was an NCUSCR Public Intellectual Program fellow. Ye is currently the 2020 Rosenberg Scholar of East Asian Studies at Suffolk University.

Via Zoom Webinar. Register at: https://bit.ly/3kJlhM9

Min Ye Associate Professor, Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University
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Yuen Yuen Ang, a former postdoctoral student of China Program Director Jean Oi, has been awarded the Theda Skocpol Prize by the American Political Science Association in recognition of her “impactful empirical, theoretical and/or methodological contributions to the study of comparative politics.” The prize recognizes emerging academics up to ten years post-PhD for scholarly excellence in political science. Ang is a Stanford Ph.D. alumna and current associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan.

Her research examines how governments and governing organizations react to radical uncertainty and novel problems. She posits that such disruptions are an endemic condition of the twenty-first century, and that examining the political economies of adapting, or failing to adapt, to rapidly changing realities is a key to understanding current geopolitics.

At the center of Ang’s work is the study of China’s rise as a global superpower, which she characterizes as one of the greatest disruptions of the contemporary world. In her highly acclaimed and award-winning book, How China Escaped the Poverty Trap (2016), Ang challenges the conventional linear models of the political economy of development by applying the principles of complexity and system thinking to offer a new explanation of how China transformed itself from an impoverished planned economy into the world’s second-largest GDP.

Ang’s current work into debunking the myths surrounding the U.S.-China tech race, the misunderstanding of nuances of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the debates swirling around China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to build on her record of excellent and innovative scholarship.

A big congratulations to Yuen Yuen for her latest recognition and ongoing contributions to the field of contemporary Asis studies!

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(Left) Congratulations Adam Yao Liu, Winner of the 2020 BRICS Economic Research Award; (Right) Portrait of Dr. Adam Liu
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Stanford Ph.D. Alumnus Wins BRICS Economic Research Award

Dr. Adam Yao Liu, a former doctoral student of APARC China Program Director Jean Oi, has been awarded the 2020 BRICS Economic Research Award for his research on how banking systems in China are developing.
Stanford Ph.D. Alumnus Wins BRICS Economic Research Award
Shiran Shen (left) and Lizhi Liu (right)
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Former Doctoral Students Win Prestigious Dissertation Awards

Interdisciplinary environmental scholar Shiran Victoria Shen is the recipient of the Harold D. Lasswell Award and political economist Lizhi Liu is the recipient of the Ronald H. Coase Award in recognition of their outstanding doctoral dissertations.
Former Doctoral Students Win Prestigious Dissertation Awards
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(Left) Yuen Yuen Ang; (Right) Congratulations Yuen Yuen Ang, Winner of the Theda Skocpol Prize from the American Political Science Association
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Former China Program postdoc and Stanford Ph.D alumna Yuen Yuen Ang has received the Theda Skocpol Prize for Emerging Scholars from the American Political Science Association for her scholarship on China’s transformation into a global superpower.

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Please register at www.eai-aparc-seminar.or.kr on the day of the event.

A panel of experts in international relations and commerce will discuss challenges facing South Korea and the country's strategy in light of the current tensions between the U.S. and China. This event is co-sponsored by East Asia Institute in Korea.

Panelists:

David Kang, Maria Crutcher Professor in International Relations; Professor of Business, and East Asia Languages and Cultures; Director of Korean Studies Institute, USC

Seungjoo Lee, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Chung-Ang University, Korea

Charles Freeman, Senior Vice President for Asia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Taeho Bark, President, Lee&Ko Global Commerce Institute; former Minister of Trade, Korea

Discussants:

Yong Suk Lee, Deputy Director of the Korea Program, Shorestein APARC; SK Center Fellow, FSI,  Stanford University

Seong-Ho Sheen, Professor of International Security, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, Korea

Moderators:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of APARC; Senior Fellow, FSI; William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

Yul Sohn, President, East Asia Institute; Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, Korea

Watch the recorded event at https://youtu.be/Hoz0cXtQfR4.

Live stream: Register at www.eai-aparc-seminar.or.kr on the day of the event.

Panel Discussions
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Jean C. Oi
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Industries all over the world are grappling with new protocols and adaptations needed to safely reopen amongst changes the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought on the global economy. Nowhere have these changes been more apparent than in China, the original epicenter of the pandemic. Now, China is one of the countries leading the way in reopening its national economy.

To explore how business leaders and entrepreneurs in China responded to the lockdown and how they’re planning for the future, the China Program conducted a survey in coordination with the Stanford Center at Peking University and Stanford Business School alumni Christopher Thomas and Xue (Xander) Wu. Though taken from a small sample, the results are one of the best samples to date of how businesses in China are responding to the uncertain geopolitical environment the pandemic and current U.S.-China relations are creating.

High-tech firms and firms with a digital presence or the ability to quickly adapt to a digital environment have faired the best, as might be expected. Less expected are the indications that many of the business leaders surveyed are planning for some degree of 'decoupling' or economic separation from U.S.-based suppliers and markets. Both the pandemic and fluctuating U.S.-China relations have made access to global technologies uncertain and both factors are accelerating desires to create localized supply chains. While the long-term implications of these findings are still unknown, the survey provides a valuable snapshot of the current economic landscape within China. 

Read an excerpt from the article below, and find the full article at The Diplomat. A Chinese language version is available on Caixin.

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From, "After COVID-19: Rebooting Business in China"

China was the first country to experience the ravages of COVID-19, having lost 4,634 people to the pandemic with 83,565 confirmed cases to date. Draconian measures were used to bend the curve and essentially stop the spread of the disease, although reports indicate that recently new cases have emerged, including those stemming from a Beijing market. For the most part, however, China has loosened restrictions and re-opened large parts of its economy. Individuals scan government-mandated QR health codes with their smartphones, and daily life has been restored to some sense of normalcy with restaurants serving customers and retail shops open to shoppers.

In this pivotal and important time, with streams of foreign policy arguments and opinion pieces sharply analyzing current U.S.-China geopolitical tensions continuing to pour forth, we at the Stanford China Program wanted to take stock of how businesses and the overall economy are coping as China tries to reopen its businesses and reboot its economy. Toward this effort, we conducted a collaborative survey of 135 senior executives in China from May 13-26. The survey was designed to help us better comprehend the variation in how Chinese businesses are reopening as well as how Chinese business leaders are viewing their prospects for the future. The research findings, based on one of the largest surveys to date of senior executives in China, helped us explore the following types of questions: What kinds of businesses have done better and what kinds have done worse? What role has the government played in economic assistance and business reopening? And how do China’s business leaders view the deterioration in U.S.-China relations, the possibility of decoupling, and even future access to technology?


Read the full article at The Diplomat.

Watch the panel discussion on the survey led by Jean Oi, Christopher Thomas, and Xue (Xander) Wu with Alvin Shiqi Wang (王世琪), Xiang Wang (王翔), Simon Yang (杨士宁), and Zhiqiang (ZZ) Zhang (张志强).

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Fateful Decisions book cover
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Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future – Book Launch Panel Discusses Critical Challenges Facing China’s Policymakers

Fateful Decisions: Choices That Will Shape China’s Future – Book Launch Panel Discusses Critical Challenges Facing China’s Policymakers
Shiran Shen (left) and Lizhi Liu (right)
News

Former Doctoral Students Win Prestigious Dissertation Awards

Interdisciplinary environmental scholar Shiran Victoria Shen is the recipient of the Harold D. Lasswell Award and political economist Lizhi Liu is the recipient of the Ronald H. Coase Award in recognition of their outstanding doctoral dissertations.
Former Doctoral Students Win Prestigious Dissertation Awards
Picture of a stethoscope on top of a world map.
News

Public Health Experts Gather Together to Reflect upon Public Health Collaborations with China Amidst COVID-19

Public Health Experts Gather Together to Reflect upon Public Health Collaborations with China Amidst COVID-19
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The survey reveals mixed progress in reopening different sectors of China's economy, but also shows that many business leaders in China are planning for some level of decoupling as access to global technology and supply chains remains uncertain.

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APARC is pleased to share that Stanford alumnae Shiran Victoria Shen and Lizhi Liu have won prestigious awards for best dissertation in their fields. Both Shen and Liu earned their doctoral degrees in Political Science in 2018 and worked with Jean Oi, director of the China Program at APARC, during their tenure as doctoral students.

Shen, who is currently an assistant professor at the University of Virginia, has won the 2020 Harold D. Lasswell Award for her dissertation The Political Pollution Cycle: An Inconvenient Truth and How To Break It. The award is given annually by the American Political Science Association for “the best doctoral dissertation in the field of public policy.” Using a wide array of data, techniques, and research designs, Shen’s work explains how environmental change influences and is shaped by politics and policy. It centers on the critical case of air pollution control policies and uses China as a natural experiment.

Liu, whose doctoral research focuses on the political economy of e-commerce in China, has won the 2020 Ronald H. Coase Best Dissertation Award from the Society for Institutional and Organizational Economics. Her study proposes that China has devised a novel solution, that is, institutional outsourcing, to the central question of how developing states build market-supporting institutions. She is currently an assistant professor in the McDonough School of Business and a faculty affiliate of the Department of Government at Georgetown University.

Congratulations, Shiran and Lizhi, on your excellent work and prestigious awards!

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Portrait of Young Kyung Do, Winner of the 2020 Rothman Epidemiology Prize
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Asia Health Policy Program Alum Wins Rothman Epidemiology Prize

Dr. Young Kyung Do, an expert in health policy and management at the Seoul National University College of Healthy Policy and the inaugural postdoctoral fellow in Asia health policy at APARC, has been awarded the 2020 prize for his outstanding publication in the journal Epidemiology last year.
Asia Health Policy Program Alum Wins Rothman Epidemiology Prize
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Shiran Shen (left) and Lizhi Liu (right)
Shiran Shen (left) and Lizhi Liu (right).
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Interdisciplinary environmental scholar Shiran Victoria Shen is the recipient of the Harold D. Lasswell Award and political economist Lizhi Liu is the recipient of the Ronald H. Coase Award in recognition of their outstanding doctoral dissertations.

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