Deterrence and Defense Across the Taiwan Strait
Deterrence and Defense Across the Taiwan Strait
Research Focus
For more than 70 years, China and Taiwan have avoided coming to blows, but recently there have been disturbing signals that Beijing is reconsidering its peaceful approach and contemplating armed unification.
Although a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not be imminent, for the first time in three decades, it is time to take seriously the possibility that China could soon use force to end its almost century-long civil war.
Under what circumstances would Chinese leaders initiate a conflict over Taiwan? What actions or developments could deter a decision by Chinese leaders to initiate conflict? How is deterrence across the Taiwan Strait different from that in Western Europe during the Cold War?
These are some of the questions the Deterrence and Defense Across the Taiwan Strait project seeks to answer. Unlike current debates on whether the competition between the United States and China resembles that between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War, this line of research explains why the comparison is problematic and counterproductive and why it is more difficult to deter and defeat Chinese regional aggression than it was to counter Soviet aggression.
By analyzing the political and military dynamics underpinning cross-strait deterrence, this project offers recommendations for U.S. policy and strategy.
Featured Media
Will China Attack Taiwan?
An interview with Oriana Mastro, Frankly Fukuyama
Publications
The Military Challenge of the People’s Republic of China
In Defense Budgeting for a Safer World (Hoover Institution Press, November 2023)
See also How the U.S. Should Adjust Its Defense Budget to Address China's Military Modernization, APARC website, November 2023
Deepening US-Taiwan Cooperation through Semiconductors
Hoover Institution Press, July 18, 2023
See also Semiconductors as a Catalyst for U.S.-Taiwan Cooperation and Commitment, APARC website, July 21, 2023
The Challenges of Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait
Statement Before the House Select Committee on the CCP, April 28, 2023
How South Korea Can Contribute to the Defense of Taiwan
In The Washington Quarterly 45:3, October 24, 2022
See also Striking the Right Balance: What South Korea Can Do to Enhance Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, APARC website, October 25, 2022
Commentary
This Is What America Is Getting Wrong About China and Taiwan
The New York Times, October 16, 2023
Japan Must Do More, and Faster, to Avert War Over Taiwan
The Washington Post, February 2, 2023
Can the US Deter China? Lessons from Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine
CSIS Interpret China, August 23, 2022
China’s Huge Exercises Around Taiwan Were a Rehearsal, Not a Signal, Says Oriana Skylar Mastro
The Economist, August 10, 2022
What Are the Issues Between the U.S., China, and Taiwan? Stanford Scholar Explains
Stanford News, August 10, 2022
Expert Voices: Oriana Skylar Mastro
Center For Advanced China Research, July 18, 2022
Biden Says We’ve Got Taiwan’s Back. But Do We?
New York Times, May 27, 2022
Invasions Are Not Contagious
Foreign Affairs, March 3, 2022
Ukraine Is a Distraction from Taiwan
Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2022
America's Future in Taiwan
WBUR: On Point, November 2021
What the U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan Means for Taiwan
New York Times, September 2021
Strait of Emergency? Debating Beijing’s Threat to Taiwan
Foreign Affairs, August 2021
The Taiwan Temptation
Foreign Affairs, June 2021
The Precarious State of Cross-Strait Deterrence
Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 2021
Biden Will Speak Softer but Act Stronger on Taiwan
Foreign Policy, November 2020
In the News
Taiwan’s Doubts About America Are Growing. That Could be Dangerous.
New York Times, January 20, 2024
Taiwan’s Presidential Frontrunner Faces a Balancing Act With China
Time, November 20, 2023
PLA Will ‘Show No Mercy’ Against Taiwan Independence Moves, Top Chinese General Says
South China Morning Post, October 30, 2023
China Committee Seeks Taiwan War-Game Lessons
The Washinton Post, April 26, 2023
'No Situation' Where Taiwan Can Defend Itself Against China
Insider, April 17, 2023
Taiwan Highly Vulnerable to Chinese Air Attack, Leaked Documents Show
The Washington Post, July 15, 2023
Taiwan Residents Without Internet in Remote Islands as China Severs Sea Cables
The Telegraph, March 26, 2023
On the Sources of US-China Confrontation
Channel 4 News, February 14, 2023
Analysis: China's Freeze on Taiwan Contact Fuels Worry as Tensions Build
Reuters, November 17, 2022
Should the United States Pledge to Defend Taiwan?
Foreign Affairs, November 15, 2022
A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan
The New Yorker, November 14, 2022
US Air Force to Deploy Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers to Australia as Tensions with China Grow
ABC News Australia, October 31, 2022
Xi Rewards Combat-Ready China Generals Amid Taiwan Tensions
Bloomberg, October 24, 2022
Report from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: What does Xi Jinping's third term mean for US-China relations and Taiwan?
VOA Chinese, October 22, 2022
China Party Congress: With Xi Set to Secure Third Term, Taiwan Fast Becoming Top Priority
The Hindustan Times, October 18, 2022
President Biden Says US Troops Would Support Taiwan in China Conflict
ABC News Australia, September 19, 2022
Biden Leaves No Doubt: ‘strategic Ambiguity’ Toward Taiwan is Dead
Politico, September 19, 2022
US’s Taiwan Security Bill Spurs Debate on Level of Support for Taipei
Financial Times, September 13, 2022
China’s Median Line Violations Suggest Taiwan ‘Decapitation’ Rehearsal
Politico, September 1, 2022
China Is 'Absolutely' Going to Make a Move – Foreign Policy Expert
Fox News, September 1, 2022
What China Is – and Isn’t – Learning from Military Drills Near Taiwan
The Christian Science Monitor, August 26, 2022
Heightened Tensions in the Taiwan Strait
21st Century China Center, August 22, 2022
In Its Rage, China Just Offered A Sneak Peek Of Its Plans For Striking Taiwan
The Federalist, August 15, 2022
War Games Show the Us May Not Beat China in a War Over Taiwan
News.com.au, August 13, 2022
What Are the Issues Between the U.S., China, and Taiwan? Stanford Scholar Explains
Stanford News, August 10, 2022
China’s Military Operations Around Taiwan After Pelosi Visit Show Intent to Change Status Quo
South China Morning Post, August 5, 2022
Stanford Experts Cast Grim Predictions for U.S.-China Relations Following Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit
The Stanford Daily, August 5, 2022
China ‘Convinced It Needs to Hit Us With Pearl Harbor-style Surprise Attack’ to Win War Over Taiwan, Expert Warns
The U.S. Sun, August 5, 2022
China’s War Games May Not Lead to All-out Conflict Against Taiwan... Yet
The Telegraph, August 4, 2022
Chinese Missiles Strike Seas Off Taiwan, and Some Land Near Japan
New York Times, August 3, 2022
China’s Military Drills Could Be a Prelude to Something Much Worse in Taiwan
The Telegraph, August 3, 2022
Taiwan Lives Under the Threat of a Modernized and Reinforced Chinese Army
Los Echos, August 3, 2022
Could China Invade Taiwan?
New York Times, August 2, 2022
Why Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Is Raising U.S.-China Tensions
New York Times, August 2, 2022
Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Triggering Potential Military Showdown
VOA Chinese, August 2, 2022
For Taiwan, Pelosi Visit Is About US, China Controlling Risk
CBS Bay Area, July 29, 2022
Xi Jinping's Phone Call with Biden
BBC Chinese, July 28, 2022
Pelosi’s Rumored Taiwan Trip Sparks Uproar
The Dispatch, July 27, 2022
Taiwan Holds Drills Amid Pelosi Visit Concern, China Tension
AP, July 26, 2022
End of Strategic Ambiguity? Ukraine War Shifts Thinking on Taiwan
Christian Science Monitor, May 26, 2022
President Biden's Vow To Defend Taiwan Is Bold but Incredibly Risky
Time, May 23, 2022
Putin's War on Ukraine Shows Xi the Dangers of Attacking Taiwan
Bloomberg Politics, March 7, 2022
Ukraine Conflict Makes Taiwan Nervous – But the Risk to China Could Be Too Great
The Telegraph, March 7, 2022
US Focus on Ukraine Stokes Worries About Joe Biden’s Commitment to Taiwan
Financial Times, February 28, 2022
China, Eying Taiwan, Gets Lesson From Ukraine’s Stiff Resistance
Wall Stree Journal, March 2, 2022
US Should Prioritize Taiwan Over Ukraine
Taiwan News, February 15, 2022
Taiwan Can't Wait
Foreign Affairs, February 1, 2022
A Stronger China Tests America's 'Strategic Ambiguity' on Taiwan
NPR All Things Considered, November 30, 2021
America's Future in Taiwan
WBUR On Point, November 10, 2021
‘Starting a Fire’: US and China Enter Dangerous Territory Over Taiwan
The New York Times, October 9, 2021
Tensions Flare as Chinese flights Near Taiwan Intensify
The Seattle Times, October 7, 2021
How Powerful Is China's Navy?
BBC, The Real Story, September 2021
The Retreat from Afghanistan Has Made America's Allies Nervous. None More So Than Taiwan
Time, September 2021
Why Is China Turning Up the Heat on Taiwan? A Debate
The National Interest, July 2021
G7 Summit Reveals a Consensus Emerging on Challenging President Xi of China
The Times, June 2021
If the US Went to War with China, Who Would Win? It Depends How It Starts
Sydney Morning Herald, June 2021
Why China May Attack Taiwan
RTI Taiwan Insider, June 2021
China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk
The Economist, May 2021
Taiwan Mobilizes Forces to Thwart Chinese Invasion
The Telegraph, April 2021
U.S. Concerns About China Put Focus on Taiwan’s Defensive Weakness
Wall Street Journal, April 2021
The Gloves Are Off When It Comes to Taiwan
Australia Financial Review, April 2021
Chinese Aircraft Carry Out Exercises, Pressure Taiwan in South China Sea Region
Radio Free Asia, February 2021
Taiwan No. 1 Flashpoint in US-China Relations
Taipei Times, February 2021
US-China-Taiwan: How Will Joe Biden Change the Balance?
South China Morning Post, November 2020
US Election: The Taiwan-Sized Challenge Facing the Next US President
BBC News, October 2020
Could China Invade Taiwan under President Xi Jinping, and Would They Win?
ABC News, October 2020
After Hong Kong: China Sets Sights on Solving 'the Taiwan Problem'
The Guardian, October 2020
An Update on Taiwan and China's Troubled Relationship
NPR’s Weekend Edition, October 2020
Multimedia
The Americans Who Would Be on the Frontline of a War in the Pacific
In the Room with Peter Bergen, December 19, 2023
Dissecting Taiwan’s Defense Strategies
TaiwanPlus News, July 19, 2023
Discussing China’s Military Activity Near Taiwan
BBC World News, April 18, 2023
Tension Escalating Between China and Taiwan
Wisconsin Public Radio, April 17, 2023
Will China Attack Taiwan?
Frankly Fukuyama, March 7, 2023
Will Japan Help Defend Taiwan?
Radio Taiwan International, February 25, 2023
Why Japan Should Defend Taiwan
RTI English, February 23, 2023
It's Not Too Late to Deter China From Invading Taiwan
The Lawfare Podcast, February 6, 2023
Taiwan and Ukraine: Challenging Authoritarianism
Yomiuri International Conference, January 16, 2023
Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro on China’s Threat to Taiwan
AEI, Campus Exchange Podcast, December 1, 2022
Biden and Xi Meet Face-to-Face as Superpower Relations Mired in Tensions
Reuters, November 13, 2023
What We Need to Talk About When We Talk About Taiwan
WorldClass Podcast, November 3, 2022
How Could a War Between China and Taiwan Play Out?
ABC News Australia, October 31, 2022
Putin-Xi Meeting: What This Means for Taiwan, Ukraine
News Nation, September 14, 2022
What Does China Want from Taiwan?
Sky News, August 12, 2022
Will the US and China Go to War Over Taiwan
BBC, August 11, 2022
Understanding China's Military Might, and Whether Beijing Will Use It
WBUR, On Point, August 10, 2022
China's Military Drills Test Ability to Take Taiwan
CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, August 2022
Examining Impact on United States-China Relationship After Pelosi's Taiwan Visit
NBC Bay Area, August 2, 2022
Washington Should Adhere to the Policy of "Strategic Ambiguity" Toward Taiwan
VOA Chinese, June 2022
It's a 'Huge Mistake' for the U.S. to Declare Strategic Clarity on Taiwan
CNBC International TV, May 2022
China and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
GB News, March 2022
Could China Invade Taiwan Like Russia Did Ukraine?
KCRW's PressPlay Podcast, March 2022
Ukraine Is a Distraction from Taiwan
Conversation Six, February 2022
US-China: Could There Be War Over Taiwan?
CNA Insider, December 2021
Would the US come to Taiwan's Defense?
CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, October 2021
Will Xi invade Taiwan?
Chinese Whispers Podcast, October 2021
Navigating the Strait
Things That Go Boom podcast, September 2021
China’s Threat to Taiwan
Council on Foreign Relations President's Inbox Podcast, August 2021
Is Asia Going to War?
Asia Rising podcast, August 2021
The Shifting Military Balance Across the Taiwan Strait
National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, July 2021
The Taiwan Temptation and U.S.-Taiwan Relations
Conversation Six, July 2021
Taiwan and China
Beyond the Headlines, June 2021
No Credible Military Defense of Taiwan
Munk Debates Podcast, March 2021
China’s Taiwan Strategy
Policy, Guns, and Money podcast, March 2021
The Possibility of Conflict Across the Taiwan Strait in the Role of the United States
Conversation Six, March 2021