In the February 2025 issue of The Diplomat magazine, APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin, professor of sociology and the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, discusses the political crisis in South Korea following President Yoon's ill-fated attempt to impose military rule and its implications for the country's future.

On January 26, 2025, the impeached and arrested Yoon was formally indicted on insurrection charges. Separately, the Constitutional Court has begun deliberations on whether to dismiss him as president or reinstate him. The national reaction to Yoon’s martial law declaration "underscores how South Koreans’ hard-won democracy is not taken for granted,” Shin, an expert on social movements and democracy in South Korea, says. "This episode highlights both the fragility and resilience of Korea’s young democracy."

In this interview with The Diplomat's Editor-in-Chief Shannon Tiezzi, Shin explains how sharp political polarization in Korea set the stage for the marital law episode of December 2024 and how the country can start bridging these gaps, how the prolonged political upheaval is impacting Korean economy and society, and what's ahead for the ruling People Power Party and the opposition Democratic Party.

How did South Korea’s history as a dictatorship – and past experiences of martial law – inform both Yoon’s decision to declare martial law and the public response?

South Korea’s painful history with dictatorship and martial law casts a long shadow over contemporary politics. I entered college in 1979, a year marked by the assassination of Park Chung Hee in late October and a period of intense political instability ensued under martial law. In fact, President Yoon Suk Yeol entered a college in the same year as me and it is hard to understand how he could forget these shared experiences and decided to declare martial law.

When Yoon declared martial law last December, it triggered an immediate and decisive public backlash, driven by a collective memory of decades of struggle against autocratic regimes. This reaction underscores how South Koreans’ hard-won democracy is not taken for granted. Civic groups, citizens, and lawmakers mobilized swiftly, reversing the martial law decision within six hours and passing the motion to impeach Yoon 10 days later. Despite recent backsliding, proactive civic engagement demonstrates that their experiences have informed strong commitment to safeguarding democratic principles.

Read the complete interview in The Diplomat magazine (subscription) >

Additional Media Commentary and Analysis

In recent weeks, Professor Shin has commented on and analyzed the evolving political situation in Korea via the following media outlets:

“For a United States that Remembers the Capitol Riots, Korea’s Turmoil Isn’t Someone Else’s Business”
Shindonga, January 8, 2025 (interview – Korean)

South Korea Needs to Move On from This Crisis
Bloomberg, January 8, 2025 (quoted)

It’s a Challenge for a Weakened Political Leadership in South Korea to Handle Trump Presidency
CNBC Squawk Box Asia, January 7, 2025 (interview)

South Koreans Adopt Trump's “Stop the Steal” Slogan for Impeached Yoon
AFP, January 6, 2025 (quoted)

South Korea: “The Crisis Risks Lasting Beyond the Next Presidential Election”
Les Echos, January 6, 2025 (interview)

South Korea Divided Over Yoon Standoff
BBC News - The Context, January 3,  2025 (interview)

Is South Korea a Beacon of Global Democracy?
The Korea Times, December 30, 2024 (author - Korean)

Story last updated December 15, 2024

On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol abruptly declared martial law in a dramatic response to the political deadlock that has stymied his tenure, only to rescind the decision six hours later, sparking widespread protests and plunging the nation — one of the United States’ closest allies — into turmoil.

What were Yoon’s motivations? What happens now? What are the implications of the dramatic events for South Korea’s democracy?

Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and the director of APARC and its Korea Program, has written extensively about South Korea’s democratic decay and is the co-editor of the volume "South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis: The Threats of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization" (Shorenstein APARC, 2022). This news roundup highlights Shin's commentary on Korea's political turmoil, published in national and international media. We update it as this developing story unfolds.

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Elected in 2022 by a razor-thin margin of less than one percentage point over his left-wing rival, Yoon entered office as a political outsider with an unyielding approach to leadership. “He may have been a successful prosecutor, but he entered politics without much preparation,” Shin told the Financial Times. “He is completely out of touch if he thought he could run the country through martial law.”

Yoon came into power in a toxic political environment, where democratic norms have become increasingly rare. Korean politics, shaped by a winner-take-all electoral system and a dominant presidency, has further heightened the tensions between the executive and legislative branches, writes Shin in a Stanford University Press blog post, explaining the historical and sociopolitical contexts of Yoon’s martial law declaration and its aftermath.

Yoon has been a “lame duck” president since the opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a landslide victory in the April 2024 National Assembly elections. His audacious martial law declaration was “a surprising last-ditch move to grab political power" in the face of steadily falling approval ratings, Shin told AFP and Vox. But this move “is basically political suicide” that “will only fasten the demise of his political career," Shin added.

On the morning following his short-lived martial law bid, members of the DP submitted a motion to impeach Yoon. “He really has two options: resign or face impeachment,” Shin said in an interview with BBC Newsday. Yoon has lost the public trust, legitimacy, and even his mandate to rule the country. “He should resign, it's better for him and the country, but I doubt that he will,” noted Shin, predicting a political ruckus over impeachment during the coming days and weeks. Watch the complete interview below:

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Should Korean citizens be worried about the future of their democracy? Yes and no, explained Shin in an interview on NPR’s "All Things Considered." In the short term, there will likely be significant political instability and societal uncertainty, with potential economic repercussions, he said. In the long run, however, Shin believes that Korea’s strong democratic institutions will ensure its democracy will prevail. He emphasized that he remains optimistic and encouraged by how swiftly and decisively the martial law attempt failed. Listen to the conversation:

Martial law was last imposed in South Korea in 1980 by Chun Doon Whan, a general who seized power through a coup after the 1979 assassination of President Park Chung Hee — himself a former general who had also used martial law to crack down on student-led dissent during his rule. Chun brutally suppressed civilian protests in the city of Kwangju in May 1980. Many Korean people, including Shin, who was a student at the time, still hold painful memories of this violent episode in Korean history. Shin reflected on that period in an interview on WBUR’s OnPoint program (listen starting 35:24).

But the situation today is very different from when South Korea was fighting against dictatorship, Shin told The Washington Post. “Democracy was not given to the Korean people. It was hard fought and won,” he said. “I believe Korean democracy will come out stronger after this.”

This week’s turn of events has highlighted “both the vulnerabilities and resilience of South Korean democracy”, Shin told the Financial Times. It has exposed challenges and problems including polarization, potential executive overreach, and weakened public trust, "but the swift rejection of martial law by the National Assembly and public outcry demonstrated strong institutional checks, civic engagement, and the opportunity to reinforce democratic safeguards.”

Yoon justified the imposition of martial law as a measure to protect South Korea from the threats of North Korea's communist threat and prevent gridlock by “anti-state” forces, referring to the DP, his liberal opposition.

“I am sure North Korea will be watching the situation very closely and may issue a statement condemning the martial law [...] Other than that, I don't think they will take any immediate action,” Shin told Newsweek in the hours before Yoon reversed course, predicting that Yoon’s ploy would be short-lived as it would face fierce national resistance.

The United States, which has around 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, was unaware of Yoon's intention to declare martial law. The White House voiced relief over Yoon’s decision to rescind his martial law bid, emphasizing that the United States reaffirms its “support for the people of Korea and the U.S.-ROK alliance based on shared principles of democracy and the rule of law.” Shin believes the alliance is resilient enough to weather Korea’s political turmoil. "I don't think the situation will affect the alliance that much," he remarked on NPR’s "All Things Considered."

A Tumultuous Road Ahead — And Lessons for Democracies Worldwide

What's next for South Korea after the martial law crisis? If Yoon does not resign, then the main opposition party will pursue impeachment. The National Assembly must vote on the motion within 72 hours after it is introduced, and the Constitutional Court has 180 days to make a ruling. A snap election would follow if impeachment is upheld, explains Shin.

The conservative People Power Party (PPP) will need to evaluate carefully the political landscape and their election prospects, and might not necessarily abandon President Yoon. “There is a difference between voting to stop martial law and voting in favor of an impeachment that would likely guarantee an opposition victory in the snap election to follow,” Shin told TIME Magazine.

While PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, once Yoon's protégé, has urged the president to resign, citing “significant risks” to the nation, impeachment poses a tough choice for the ruling party, which remains haunted by the 2017 impeachment of Park Geun Hye, Shin explains in the Journal of Democracy. Conservative leaders lost the snap election following Park's removal and faced intense political retribution under her liberal successor, Moon Jae In. History could repeat itself now, although DP opposition leader Lee Jae Myung is facing trial on multiple criminal charges. "This alternative to Yoon does not appear as promising for Korean democracy as one would hope," Shin notes.

Yoon's doomed power grab is "a stern warning to the world: People should take democratic backsliding in their countries seriously," Shin concludes his Journal of Democracy essay. "If such an event can happen in Korea — an advanced nation long regarded as an exemplary case of the 'third wave' of democratization — then it can happen anywhere that is experiencing similar democratic challenges. This is a critical lesson for democracies worldwide."

As Shin expected, President Yoon avoided impeachment on Saturday, December 7, after PPP lawmakers boycotted a parliamentary vote on the impeachment motion proposed by opposition parties, despite massive public protests outside the National Assembly.

The PPP defended its decision, stating it acted to prevent "severe division and chaos" and pledged to address the crisis "responsibly." PPP leader Han Dong-hoon claimed Yoon had agreed to step down and would be "effectively excluded from his duties," with the prime minister and party taking over governance in the interim.

“I don't think Korean people have the patience to wait for this plan to work out,” said Shin in a BBC News interview. He explained that the ruling PPP is trying to buy time, but Yoon will have to go sooner or later. The opposition parties have declared their intent to file an impeachment motion against Yoon every week until it is passed. With growing public anger and mounting demonstrations, pressure on the ruling party is expected to intensify, Shin said. Watch:

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As Yoon clung to power, the National Assembly passed a bill on December 10 mandating a special counsel to investigate insurrection charges against him. The ruling party "might delay the demise of Yoon's tenure but won't prevent it — its road will be messier," Shin told AFP.

Shin is concerned that this crisis in political leadership and the resulting leadership vacuum spell trouble for South Korea on the world stage. The nation already faces mounting foreign policy challenges with President-elect Trump’s anticipated policies and a new prime minister in Japan. It’s unclear how it can effectively navigate critical issues involving the United States, Japan, North Korea, and China amidst such instability, Shin told BBC News.

Winds of Change

On December 14, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon, passing the motion 204-85 (including a dozen ruling party members) as jubilant crowds celebrated a triumph for the country’s democracy. Yoon's presidential duties were suspended, and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will take over as acting president. The Constitutional Court now has 180 days to decide whether to remove Yoon from office or reinstate him. If he is removed, a national election to select his successor must be held within 60 days.

Shin believes the likelihood the Constitutional Court will overturn the impeachment is low, as Yoon’s constitutional violations appear quite clear. “Certainly, Yoon will go down in Korean history as a very poor political leader,” he remarked in the latest interview with BBC News, several hours after the impeachment vote.

The day after the passage of the impeachment bill, Han Dong-hoon announced his resignation as leader of the ruling People Power party, saying his position had become untenable after he backed Yoon’s impeachment. The PPP is in turmoil, attempting to buy time to be better prepared for the potential snap election that could follow than it was in the 2017 scenario, Shin explained, expressing skepticism about the PPP’s chances of success. Watch the interview:

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The crisis offers Korean people an opportunity to reflect on their tumultuous democratic journey and push for necessary reforms stymied by political calculations, Shin writes on Stanford University Press’ blog. He explains that addressing the negative consequences of the nation’s extremely powerful presidency and the winner-take-all voting system requires constitutional and electoral reforms.

“Korea’s political culture must also change,” Shin emphasizes. “Demonizing opponents, divisive identity politics, and insular political fandoms and populism have no place in a healthy democracy.”

Additional Media Commentary
 

• The Economist
• Politiken (Danish) 
• Il Messaggero (Italian)
• Caixin Weekly (Chinese)
• Voice of America (Korean)
• Korean Media
  • Fortune Korea
  • The Value News (in Korean)
  • Edaily News (here and here)