As nations grapple with an increasingly competitive global talent landscape, a new study, published in the journal World Development, suggests that countries should rethink their approach to developing, attracting, and retaining talent. To address the need for a more complete understanding of cross-national variation in talent development strategy, the study proposes Talent Portfolio Theory (TPT), a novel approach to studying and improving human resource development.

The researchers, Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and the director of APARC and the Korea Program, and Haley Gordon, a PhD candidate at Stanford’s Department of Sociology, draw on the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, a well-established framework in financial investment literature, to propose a new framework for talent development.

The new framework, TPT, views a nation’s talent strategy much like an investment portfolio, emphasizing the importance of diversification, risk management, and rebalancing. Shin and Grodon examine Japan and Singapore as case studies to illustrate how the TPT approach can help scholars, policymakers, and businesses better understand and optimize talent development strategies.

The study is part of the Talent Flows and Development research track of the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL). Housed at APARC and directed by Shin, SNAPL is a new initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia-Pacific nations through interdisciplinary, policy-relevant, and comparative research.

A Fresh Perspective on Talent Development

Talent development has long been a priority for nations aiming to boost economic growth and compete globally. Traditionally, countries have focused on building human capital — developing skills and education among citizens — and social capital — strengthening networks and relationships that facilitate cooperation and innovation. Existing strategies, however, often overlook the interconnected nature of various talent flows, including the movement of domestic talent, international talent, and diaspora engagement.

Just like financial theory evaluates a given investment (and its risk and return qualities) by how it impacts a portfolio’s overall performance rather than in isolation, TPT treats talent as a portfolio composed of four key elements, known as the “four Bs”: brain train (domestic talent development), brain gain (attracting foreign talent), brain circulation (movement of talent between home and abroad), and brain linkage (engagement with diaspora communities).

“In the study of national talent development, it is imperative to consider both the human and social capital facets of talent, as a country has multiple layers of talent available for use – domestic, diasporic, and foreign – each with different human and social capital potentials,” write Shin and Gordon. They propose TPT as “a better framework for illustrating and comparing different experiences and impacts of talent development at the national level, which is also key in offering policy prescriptions for human resource strategies.”

Insights from Japan and Singapore

Using Japan and Singapore as case studies, the authors demonstrate how countries can apply TPT to manage their talent portfolios. Japan's economic growth relied on two tiers of human capital: top-level scientists and engineers who adapted and integrated foreign technologies for domestic use, and skilled workers who grasped the fundamentals of these adapted technologies and carried out the manufacturing processes. With limited prospects for brain gain, circulation, or linkage, Japan developed these two layers of its workforce by relying on brain train, cultivating domestic talent for its industrial development.

In the early 1990s, however, Japan’s economy ran into trouble. Its system of brain train was well-suited for driving incremental innovation, but it became restrictive in the rapidly evolving landscape of the early 21st century, which demanded more disruptive innovation. “The Japanese model of human resource development necessitated a robust supply of domestic manpower which now became increasingly difficult to sustain, and a shrinking working-age population also meant labor shortage and reduced productivity,” say Shin and Gordon. “In the language of TPT, Japan urgently needed to diversify its talent portfolio beyond its reliance on brain train to address new risks.”

Recognizing the risks of a skewed talent portfolio, Japan began to rebalance its talent portfolio in the 2010s but has struggled with demographic decline and a slow pivot toward international talent. Despite efforts to internationalize higher education and attract foreign talent, Japan’s diversification of its talent portfolio has been stagnant and was hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In contrast, Singapore’s approach showcases the benefits of a well-balanced talent portfolio. The city-state’s aggressive pursuit of foreign talent (brain gain) and robust engagement with its diaspora (brain linkage) have made it a leader in global talent strategy. Singapore’s government has continually adjusted its policies, actively rebalancing its talent portfolio to maintain a competitive edge.

Singapore started rebalancing its talent portfolio in the 1990s, not only enhancing its efforts toward brain train but also expanding brain gain by internationalizing higher education and actively promoting a “work-migration” path. In tandem with its brain gain initiatives, Singapore also turned to its diaspora, fostering brain circulation and establishing stronger brain linkages. Through concerted efforts by the government and industry, Singapore has successfully produced and attracted creative talent that allowed it to remain globally competitive.

“Talent Portfolio Theory enables a holistic understanding of the various components of Singapore’s talent strategy and its evolution over time, from the country’s focus on brain train during its catch-up phase to its rebalancing with a successful brain gain, in addition to more recent forays into brain circulation and brain linkage,” Shin and Gordon explain.

Toward Fostering Cultural Diversity

TPT offers a powerful framework for crafting more resilient and adaptive talent strategies. As the global competition for skilled workers intensifies, understanding the dynamics of talent portfolios can help countries mitigate risks, capitalize on opportunities, and avoid the pitfalls of overly narrow approaches to human resource development. For instance, countries experiencing demographic decline, like Japan, can look to Singapore’s model of timely rebalancing as a guide for policy adjustment. Businesses also stand to benefit from TPT. The framework encourages companies to look beyond the availability of local talent and consider the broader talent ecosystem, including international talent flows and diaspora engagement.

Shin and Gordon emphasize that structural and sociocultural factors often limit policy options for building and rebalancing talent portfolios. Japan and Singapore illustrate that developed countries with abundant domestic opportunities are better positioned to retain talent and attract brain gain, whereas developing countries often experience talent outflows, favoring brain circulation or linkage (as seen in China and India). Additionally, while ethnically homogenous countries like Japan may prefer to rely on domestic and diasporic talent, multiethnic countries like Singapore can better attract foreign talent and engage in brain gain.

The contrasting experiences of Japan and Singapore underscore the critical importance of fostering cultural diversity to attract foreign talent. Singapore’s success with brain gain, compared to Japan’s more mixed outcomes, largely stems from its multicultural environment, shaped by policies that protect minority rights and actively promote respect for diverse ethnic groups. To remain competitive in the global talent market, countries must prioritize sociocultural policies that cultivate openness, tolerance, and diversity. By embracing these values, nations can attract the best and brightest minds, ensuring their place in a rapidly evolving global economy.

The Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) has received two grants to offer guidance for more effective U.S. foreign policy strategies in Asia and propose structural reforms that propel the region toward growth, innovation, and democratic resilience. The first grant, from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), supports SNAPL's policy engagements with stakeholders in Washington, D.C., forthcoming this September. The second grant, from Stanford Global Studies, funds a series of SNAPL-hosted research workshops throughout the 2024-25 academic year.

Both funded initiatives underscore SNAPL's commitment to generating evidence-based policy recommendations and promoting transnational collaboration with academic and policy institutions to advance the future prosperity of Asia and U.S.-Asia relations.

Housed at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), SNAPL is led by Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, a senior fellow at FSI, and the director of APARC and the Korea Program. The lab’s mission is to address emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges facing Asia-Pacific countries and guide effective U.S. Asia policies through interdisciplinary, comparative research and collaboration with academic and policy research institutions in Asia and the United States.  

“We are grateful to FSI and Stanford Global Studies for supporting SNAPL's interdisciplinary, policy-relevant research,” says Shin. “The two grants provide a tremendous boost as we work to contribute evidence-based recommendations to advance a more nuanced understanding of Asia's role in global affairs and informed new directions for U.S. Asia policies.”

Policy Considerations for U.S.-China and U.S.-Asia Relations

With a grant from FSI to support policy engagement, SNAPL team members will share research findings from several of the lab’s flagship projects. The SNAPL team — including Shin, Research Fellow Xinru Ma, and Postdoctoral Fellows Gidong Kim and Junki Nakahara — will travel to Washington, D.C. in September 2024 to present these findings at forums and meetings with academic and policy communities. The trip includes a joint symposium with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a presentation at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, and meetings with think tanks and Congress members.

Three core projects the team will share guide U.S. policies in Asia, particularly toward China. The first project challenges many pundits’ framing of the U.S.-China competition as a “new Cold War.” In contrast to this narrative, a recent SNAPL study reveals that contemporary U.S.-China relations are markedly different from the U.S.-Soviet Cold War dynamics. “Our analysis of over 41,000 Congressional speeches spanning 36 years suggests that current U.S. discourses on China mirror those on the past economic competition with Japan rather than the ideological or military conflicts with the USSR in the Cold War era,” says Ma. “Applying Cold War analogies to today's geopolitical landscape would thus misguide efforts to navigate current U.S.-China tensions.”

The research findings from a second SNAPL study offer a better understanding of how U.S. alliance relationships and U.S.-China tensions shape public attitudes toward China in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, another study challenges the conventional wisdom that democracy promotion gives the U.S. a competitive edge in its foreign policy over China. “Our research indicates that liberal values do not serve as a key lens through which Asia-Pacific citizens view recent geopolitical developments,” notes Kim. “The United States should therefore pivot from focusing on liberal rhetoric to emphasizing its role in promoting shared benefits with Asia-Pacific citizens in economic, trade, and military security areas.”

These studies are part of SNAPL’s U.S.-Asia Relations research track.

Racism in Global Context

At George Washington University, the SNAPL team will discuss findings from a project the lab explores as part of another research track, Nationalism and Racism. Recognizing that racism is a global problem with diverse roots and manifestations, this research track examines how nationalism and racism intertwine to create forms of exclusion and marginalization in Asia and provides policy recommendations to advance more inclusive societies in the region and beyond.

At this discussion, to be hosted by the Elliott School of International Affairs’ Sigur Center for Asian Studies, the team will present findings from a study that analyzes how 16 Northeast, Southeast, and South Asian nations discuss and justify their positions on race and racial discrimination. “Our study reveals various forms of racism ‘denial’ rooted in nationalist and religious ideologies, hindering efforts to address ongoing inequalities,” says Nakahara. “Addressing these forms of denial is crucial for promoting critical dialogue on race and racism in Asia and dismantling systems of oppression in the region and elsewhere.”

A Platform for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Asia

SNAPL’s second grant, awarded by Stanford Global Studies, will enable the lab to host throughout the 2024-25 academic year a research workshop series focused on projects from the two research tracks above. Involving scholars and students from Stanford and Asia, the six-part series will foster cross-disciplinary dialogue and share policy-relevant findings grounded in the lab’s research.

The four workshop installments in fall and winter quarters 2024 will be dedicated to the projects discussed above. The spring quarter 2025 workshops will focus on two additional projects: one that examines the discursive construction of U.S. rivals and the respective roles of the media, executive, and legislative branches in this process, and the second that investigates elite articulation of “multiculturalism” in four Asia-Pacific nations.

“These workshops will be invaluable to advancing exchange and partnerships with academics and experts from Stanford and across Asia,” says Shin. “They directly promote SNAPL’s mission to serve as a platform that facilitates trans-Pacific, network-based collaboration."

Visit SNAPL's website for information about the workshops’ schedule and discussion topics.

APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin recently joined the Japan Economic Foundation (JEF) to discuss his research project "Talent Flows, Brain Hubs, and Socioeconomic Development in Asia." The conversation was published in the May/June 2023 issue of the Japan SPOTLIGHT, the online journal of JEF.

📥 Download a PDF version of this interview.

JS: How do you see the different situations vis-à-vis demography among Asia-Pacific nations? Some countries like Japan are suffering from depopulation while some are seeing an increase in population. How do you assess the political and economic implications?

Shin: As you mentioned, Japan and South Korea are going through very serious demographic crises with low birth rates, aging populations, and declines in the working-age population. On the other hand, India and many countries in Southeast Asia have very young populations, and we might expect an increase in talent mobility within the Asia-Pacific region. In the past, a lot of Chinese, Indian, and Korean students came to the United States and Europe. But now more people are going to Japan and South Korea. Their level of education has improved; the quality of universities in advanced Asian countries is quite good. We should think about the policy implications of the increase in regional talent mobility in the Asia-Pacific region.

JS: For example, India and Japan are referred to as complementary because India has lots of young people and Japan does not. Would you say that if Japan expanded opportunities for immigrants, it would make the relationship between Japan and India more complementary? Of course, India-Japan relations can be discussed in the context of skilled immigrants but there is still some disagreement on the issue of immigration of unskilled immigrants.

Shin: In the past, Japan and South Korea accepted largely unskilled labor from China and Southeast Asia. This unskilled migration will continue, but at the same time, Japan and South Korea need to accept more skilled migrants. India can be a good source. It is encouraging to see more foreign students who come to Japan, for example, for college and then stay to work. However, most foreigners leave after a few years of work. If you look at Australia, in contrast, many international students go there for college, stay, and eventually naturalize as Australian citizens. One may point out that Australia is very different from Japan or South Korea, which I partially agree with. However, until the 1970s, Australia was also promoting racial homogeneity. Under their “White Australia” policy, they were accepting only white Europeans, but couldn’t sustain the economy with the low population growth. They had to open up, promoting multiculturalism. This has led to an increase in immigrants from Asia, such as from China and India. Going back to your question, Japan and India can be complementary to each other: one needs talent, the other has a strong supply of IT workers.

JS: As you have just explained, the economic implications of this depopulation could cause us a shrinking economy. We should perhaps encourage the flow of talent to supplement the stagnant economy with immigrants – but what do you think about the political implications of this declining population in terms of security concerns?

Shin: Let me give you an example from South Korea. This is a big issue for South Korea because it maintains a large military. On the one hand, there is no way to maintain the military’s current size or level due to a shrinking population but on the other hand, I don’t think you can bring immigrants into the military. It’s not like bringing immigrants into a company. Another political implication is the change in the voting landscape as the proportion of older people or senior citizens is really increasing. They tend to be more conservative, in favor of conservative parties. This may not be an issue for Japan because the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gets a lot of support from senior citizens anyway, but in South Korea and other countries where there is a regular change of power, this has potentially huge political implications.

JS: Looking at the possible merits of depopulation, some economists would say that of course depopulation has demerits, but it may still have some merits because individual wealth may increase. What is your perspective on this notion?

Shin: Some jobs can be replaced by robots or AI, and then not only may we not need so many people, but there may be less competition for jobs. Still, I think for any country to maintain the scale of its economy you must maintain a certain level of population. It is not only about production but also consumption. If you have a declining population then consumption will decline in tandem, which will negatively impact the economy. Japan has a fairly large population and the market may be good enough to be self-sufficient for now. But should the population become half of what it is today, then it probably may not be able to sustain the current scale of the economy. While overall you don’t want too many people, South Korea and Japan should be concerned about their declining populations.

To continue reading, download the complete interview >

Each summer, Stanford students assist APARC faculty on a variety of projects as research assistants (RAs). For Master’s in East Asian Studies candidate Kerstin Norris, working with Center and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin provided the opportunity to conduct literature reviews of the field of race studies and build her skills in a collaborative research environment.

Norris, who intends to pursue a doctoral degree in Sociology with a research emphasis on Korean Studies, described the experience of working closely with Stanford faculty and peer researchers as particularly valuable in designing her own research projects and giving her direction for her future dissertation.

In the following Q&A, Norris discusses her research assistantship experience this summer. The interview was slightly edited for length and clarity.

Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive research and commentary updates from our scholars

First, tell us a bit about yourself and your academic interests and extracurriculars. 
I am currently a master’s student within the Center for East Asian Studies and primarily focus on South Korea, militarism, labor, and migration. I am originally from Xenia, Ohio where not much happens. So, when I told my family I was interested in international studies as an undergraduate and later East Asia as a graduate student, I was always the odd man out. I knew that I was meant to leave my small town but was unsure what I was destined to do. At the Ohio State University, I found a love for international relations, political theory, and research with an interest in East Asia (I have Korean and Japanese pop and rock music to thank for that). I decided to apply to Stanford’s East Asian Studies master’s as a bridge for a PhD in Sociology in order to gain more knowledge.  

Why did you choose to work with Dr. Shin? 
I actually chose to attend Stanford in order to work with Dr. Shin. His work is globally renowned in East Asian studies and especially Korean studies. Before committing to Stanford, I had a Zoom call with Dr. Shin about the CEAS program and the university’s opportunities. I knew I wanted to become an academic, but the incredible competitiveness in the job market always made me apprehensive to go forward with that career route. The uncertainty about job prospects after graduation felt daunting, although I could not imagine doing anything else, given my love for teaching and research. However, after my call with Dr. Shin, I knew I had to give it a shot. He told me that it was possible for me to become a scholar if I wanted to and had the grit. He really inspired me, so it was natural for me to want to work under Dr. Shin as an RA. 

Can you describe the research assistantship?
Because we were in the beginning stages of a project, the job consisted primarily of conducting literature reviews of the field of race studies and searching for case studies for the job. After completing the literature reviews, my teammates and I had biweekly meetings in which we discussed the content we read and attempted to theorize our own understanding of race and racism within the Asian context. The next team will be doing far more empirical work and working closely with case studies. To those unfamiliar with academia, I might describe this research as an attempt to gain a greater understanding of how racism operates in an Asian context. A lot of scholarship concerning what race is and how it operates within the world is very Western-centric or applies a Black-White lens, so it is important to understand how it potentially manifests across the Asian continent.  

What did you learn over the course of your research assistantship and how do you think it will help you in your career? 
Given that I want to be a professor in Sociology and Korean studies, this research directly correlated to my future career. I had been an RA in the past, largely doing archival research and general literature reviews. However, this RA-ship was different in that it really challenged me to work within a team, become more familiar with a field I hadn’t studied, and build a project from ground zero. Because of the RA-ship, I will be better prepared to design my own research projects, most importantly my future dissertation.

What's next for you? 
In the fall, I will be doing an exchange quarter at Sungkyunkwan University where I will be taking Korean studies courses taught in Korean. I will then return to Stanford to write my master’s thesis and graduate. Hopefully, I will then apply to PhD programs!   

Any advice for Stanford students considering a summer RA position? 
For those considering a summer RA position, I would make sure that the research interests you and somewhat aligns with something you’d like to do in the future, even if it isn’t academia. I would also highly recommend working in an RA position with a team. Having done research alone and in a team setting, I recognize how much I gained from hearing others’ thoughts and debating concepts and theories. That was the most fruitful part of my summer experience.

Learn more about APARC’s summer research assistant internships and other training opportunities for Stanford undergraduate and graduate students >