Japan situation difficult, but reconstruction on the horizon
Japan's massive earthquake and tsunami three weeks ago and the challenging recovery process continue to make news headlines around the world. It is difficult to separate fact and reasonable speculation about the future from the terror-filled coverage about radiation leaking from the Fukushima nuclear complex. In an effort to make sense of recent events, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) convened a panel of experts for a discussion about the possible future implications arising from this complex and emotionally charged situation for Japan's energy policy, economy, and politics.
Addressing an audience of one hundred students, faculty, and members of the general public on March 30, Shorenstein APARC associate director for research Daniel C. Sneider expressed the center's deep sympathy for those affected by the natural disasters and its profound admiration for the way in which the people of Japan are dealing with the aftermath. Members of the panel echoed these sentiments throughout the event.
Michio Harada, Deputy Counsel General at the Consulate General of
Japan in San Francisco, cited official government figures indicating that,
as of March 28, twenty-eight thousand people were dead or missing and
one-hundred-and-eighty thousand people were still in evacuation shelters. Faced
with such staggering figures, Japan remains in a rescue and recovery phase, he
said, but is receiving a tremendous amount of global support. More than one
hundred and thirty countries have provided financial assistance, and eighteen
countries and regions have sent rescue teams. Collective public spirit is
currently very strong, Deputy Counsel Harada emphasized. Japan's challenge
moving forward, he suggested, will be to adopt pragmatic measures to fund
reconstruction projects in the areas destroyed or damaged by the natural
disasters.
Understanding the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power facility and the
information circulating about the potential health risks of radiation exposure
is complicated, stressed Siegfried S. Hecker, co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He
described the intricate design and structure of the reactors and outlined the
sequence of events up to the present, explaining the immediate, crucial challenge
of continuing to cool the reactors and deal with the leakage of radiation from
them. While there are definite and potentially very serious health
threats from radiation exposure and contamination, Hecker said, fear and stress
about the situation could also negatively affect mental and physical wellbeing.
It is too soon to know the long-term implications for energy policy in Japan
and other countries, he suggested, emphasizing the significance of learning
from this experience in order to improve any future use of nuclear power.
Robert Eberhart, a researcher with the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship,
proposed that the global supply chain is flexible enough to absorb any
manufacturing disruptions in Japan. He noted that in the past twenty years most
of Japan's heavy manufacturing has moved overseas, and that the components made
there are a comparatively less significant part of the supply chain. In terms
of the overall impact on Japan's economy, Eberhart suggested that the net
effect on the GDP would be neutral over the next two years, explaining that the
imminent loss of business and investment in some areas would be offset by the
growth of firms involved in the reconstruction process.
Phillip Lipscy, a center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies and an assistant professor with the Department of
Political Science, stated that events and immediate needs during the early
stages of reconstruction may have long-term affects on policymaking and the
government structure in Japan. For example, the continued use of nuclear
energy—a relatively clean and efficient source of power accounting for 30
percent of Japan's total energy consumption—will face public opposition due to
rising concerns about safety and pressing energy needs. In addition, while
Prime Minister Naoto Kan's prompt response after the natural disasters helped
boost popular sentiment for him and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), how they
fare in the long term—especially with regard to the DPJ's relationship with the
opposition Liberal Democratic Party and reconstruction-related modifications to
its key economic policies—remains to be seen, Lipscy said.
Sneider closed the event with a comparison between the events in Japan and the April
2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, pointing to criticism that the Obama and
Kan administrations have received for not regulating large corporations closely
enough. A prompt resolution to the dangerous—and contentious—situation at the
Fukushima nuclear complex is the most immediate concern, and one that will help
foretell the long-term political implications for Japan's government, he
concluded.
Although there is still a long road ahead in Japan—especially until the accident at Fukushima's nuclear reactor is contained and the actual after-effects of radiation are better understood—the underlying message during the panel discussion was that Japan will indeed recover and that the terrible events of the past weeks have brought people—and even the competing political parties—closer together.
SPRIE executive training session offers Chinese enterprise leaders insights into innovation
From how failure drives innovation to the role of government in supporting entrepreneurship, two expert professors at Stanford led a training session for executives from Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOE) as part of the 2011 Cisco China 21st Century Enterprise Leader Program (ELP) hosted by Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) on March 22, 2011.
Professor William F. Miller, Co-Director of SPRIE, kicked off the session with a stimulating presentation on Silicon Valley's habitat for innovation. He pointed out that turning technology into business was the essence of Silicon Valley, and a favorable business, social and political environment in the region had facilitated the process. Despite the emergence of other venture capital locations, Silicon Valley scooped up almost 40% of venture deals and dollars across the U.S. in the last quarter of 2010, according to the MoneyTree Report.
The "restless pioneer spirit" of Stanford had always played a crucial role in the effective interaction between research institutes and industry, Miller argued.
Following Miller's discussion of features of Silicon Valley's entrepreneurial habitat, William Barnett, Thomas M. Siebel Professor of Business Leadership, Strategy, and Organizations at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, shared his thoughts on how to discover successful business models.
"Having great technologies is not enough," said Barnett. "Entrepreneurs are like scientists. Successful business models are learned from failures." Barnett encouraged the leaders present to create a working environment within which failure would be tolerated. He further urged them to accelerate the learning process by asking what might go wrong.
The purpose of the SPRIE session, which is part of a 12-day US-based program organized by Cisco Systems and China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), is to help the SOE executives understand how to foster innovation and to drive operational excellence. The delegation is composed of SASAC officials, Peking University professors and leaders from 17 SOEs in China, including Southern Power Grid, Three Gorges Corporation, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, China FAW Group, Harbin Electric Corp., Anshan Iron and Steel Group, Baosteel Group, China Ocean Shipping Company, China Eastern Airlines, China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation, State Development and Investment Corporation, China Merchants, China Railway Group and China Railway Construction.
Successful entrepreneurs respond to global trends
Go out there and change the world.
- Tim Draper, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
"Whatever the world looks
like now, it will change," said Tim
Draper, founder and managing director of Draper Fisher Jurvetson (DFJ),
during the keynote session at the March 1 Entrepreneurship in the Global Marketplace seminar, organized by the Stanford Program on
Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) with sponsorship from
Alibaba.com, the first in a series of seminars by the Schwarzenegger Emerging
Entrepreneur Initiative. Concluding his remarks, Draper urged the overflow
audience: "Go out there and change the world."
Draper and the nine other participants shared different perspectives on
entrepreneurship, but a key message underlying all of the presentations was
that the world is a dynamic, rapidly changing place where entrepreneurs can
succeed by anticipating and responding to global trends. In doing so, many
suggested, it is also possible to change the world—for the better. The
participants all concurred that China is one of the key places in the world—now
and in the future—to do business, representing a challenging but a vast
frontier of opportunity.
Global demographic trends are a major factor that venture capitalists consider
when making investments. Addressing the worldwide aging phenomenon, which is
particularly acute in Asia-Pacific countries such as Japan and China, Draper
explained how DFJ has invested in a company that manufactures videogame-like
devices designed to improve cognition, noting the growing market for such
devices that help keep cognitive health apace with a longer life span. Hans Tung, a partner with the
Shanghai-based venture capital firm Qiming Ventures, described how his firm is
tracking the large segment of China's population living in small cities away
from commercial hubs. These members of the populace, who prefer to shop online
where they can find a wider selection of goods than in their local shopping
malls, are quickly becoming a driving force in China's e-commerce market.
It is China's e-commerce and other Internet firms—fueled by the explosion of
Internet users—that carry increasingly significant weight in China's domestic
and the global economy. Duncan Clark,
a visiting scholar at SPRIE, presented related findings from SPRIE's China 2.0: The Rise of a Digital Superpower research initiative, which is led by Marguerite
Gong Hancock, associate director of SPRIE. China 2.0, explores the
conditions generating such rapid growth of the Internet, and investigates
questions surrounding the possible global implications of it. Clark noted that
as China's three largest Internet firms—search engine Baidu, instant-messaging
service Tencent, and e-commerce portal Taobao—expand, domestic competition will
not only intensify, but move further into the global economic arena. The "big
three" firms are already ranked among the top 20 Internet sites in the world
based on site traffic. According to Clark, the key question in the future for
U.S. companies will be how to partner with Chinese companies in order to insure
their own growth.
Riding the global wave of innovation and entrepreneurship, Jonathan Ross Shriftman, co-founder of Solé Bicycle Company, and Ryder Fyrwald, vice president of global
operations at the Kairos Society, have discovered opportunities to effect
positive change despite a global climate of intense economic competition.
Shriftman, a recent University of Southern California (USC) graduate, described
the lessons that he has learned through his company's quest to manufacture
low-cost, quality fixed-gear bicycles that provide a stylish, alternate form of
transportation. Despite funding and language challenges, Shriftman and his
partner succeeded in connecting with a manufacturer in China through
Alibaba.com, and have sold nearly 800 bicycles to date. Fyrwald, who is still
an undergraduate at USC's Marshall School of Business, explained the philosophy
behind the Kairos Society, an international network of student entrepreneurs
who seek to solve world issues through entrepreneurship and innovation. He
cited the example of WaterWalla, a company that has developed, among other
technologies, a low-cost water purification device for use by urban slum
dwellers.
From the perspective of seasoned venture capitalists Draper and Tung and
emerging entrepreneurs Shriftman and Fyrwald, the message at Entrepreneurship in the Global Marketplace was clear: the way to succeed in a rapidly changing world is to react
promptly—and creatively—to global trends. And, as Shriftman suggested, it is
possible to "do well by doing good," and change the world in a positive way.
Life after Google? The Way Forward for US Internet Firms and Investors in China
About the seminar
As China's Internet population surges towards the half billion mark—double the United States—how are U.S. Internet companies faring in China? Google, Facebook, eBay, Yahoo and others have all faced challenges in China. These include external (competition, regulation/censorship) and internal (management, strategy). Can these firms find a viable position in China? Will emerging players such as Groupon fare any better? Although U.S. Internet companies have struggled, U.S. institutional investors have reaped rich rewards from stakes in leading Chinese firms such as Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba/Taobao. Is this approach a better bet than hoping that U.S. firms gain a foothold in China? If leading Chinese Internet firms continue to dominate their home market, do they stand a chance to succeed internationally including through expansion or M&A in the US?
About the Speaker
Duncan Clark is Chairman of BDA China, a company he founded in Beijing in 1994. Previously, Duncan was an investment banker with Morgan Stanley in London and Hong Kong, where he focused on telecommunications, media and technology (TMT) transactions.
He has guided BDA to become the leading consultancy servicing participants and investors in the TMT sectors in China and India. With a team of over 50 in Beijing and an office of 15 in New Delhi (opened in 2006), BDA has in recent years added to TMT an advisory capacity serving leading private equity firms investing in other fast-growing sectors in these countries such as education, retail and alternative energy.
Clark holds a B.Sc degree in economics with honors from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and currently chairs the school's alumni group in China. A UK citizen, Clark was raised in the UK, the United States and France.
Media X is the partner of this seminar.
Philippines Conference Room
Book Talk: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge
As the United States struggles to emerge from recession, India and China's continued robust growth is the subject of much interest and concern. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Senior Fellow Adam Segal will talk about his new book Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge, analyzing Asia's technological rise, questioning assumptions about the United States inevitable decline, and explaining how America can preserve and improve its position in the global economy by optimizing its strength of moving ideas from the lab to the marketplace.
In his book, Segal argues that the emergence of India and China does not mean the end of American economic and technological power. Instead, the United States should now leverage its many advantages.
Through his research, Segal concludes the United States has an advantage over Asia in the realm of the software of innovation. “In America, your ideas can make you rich. Intellectual property is protected, and individual scientists are able to exploit their breakthroughs for commercial gains,” he writes. “It is time to realize that software in its most expansive sense offers the most opportunities for the United States to ensure its competitive place in the world.” The challenge is “to recover a culture of innovation that was driven underground, overshadowed by sexy credit default swaps and easy spending.”
Speaker
Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman senior fellow for counterterrorism and national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, Dr. Segal currently leads study groups on cybersecurity and cyber conflict as well as Asian innovation and technological entrepreneurship. His new book Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge (W.W. Norton, 2011) looks at the technological rise of Asia. Dr. Segal is a research associate of the National Asia Research Program and was the project director for a CFR-sponsored independent task force on Chinese military modernization.
Before coming to CFR, Dr. Segal was an arms control analyst for the China Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists. There, he wrote about missile defense, nuclear weapons, and Asian security issues. Dr. Segal has been a visiting scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and Tsinghua University in Beijing. He has taught at Vassar College and Columbia University. Dr. Segal is the author of Digital Dragon: High-Technology Enterprises in China (Cornell University Press, 2003), as well as several articles and book chapters on Chinese technology policy. His work has recently appeared in the International Herald Tribune, Financial Times, Washington Quarterly, Los Angeles Times, and Foreign Affairs. Dr. Segal currently writes for the CFR blog, “Asia Unbound".
Dr. Segal has a BA and PhD in government from Cornell University, and an MA in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He reads and speaks Chinese.
Philippines Conference Room
U.S. and Japanese officials confer with SPRIE-STAJE
A group of leading American and Japanese venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, academic experts, government officials, and leaders in business and related fields joined the "U.S. - Japan Dialogue to Promote Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Job Creation" symposium, organized by the Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE), the largest U.S.-Japan event held at Stanford in many years, on February 23, 2011.
Representatives from both governments opened the event by underscoring the economic and strategic reasons for closer U.S.-Japan cooperation in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship. U.S. Ambassador to Japan John V. Roos emphasized how an economically vibrant Japan is critical to the security of the United States, and how it creates opportunities for U.S. trade, investment, and job creation. Moreover, innovation and collaboration are vital to addressing critical global issues, such as climate change. Under Secretary of State Robert D. Hormats noted how innovation and entrepreneurship, often involving young firms bringing new technology to market, are fundamental to ensuring sustainable growth and inclusive prosperity, both at home and across the globe. For Japan, Teruhiko Mashiko, a Ranking Member of the Diet's Committee on Economy and Industry and a former Senior Vice Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, highlighted the potential for greater employment, development of green technology, and the circulation of human and other resources through innovation and entrepreneurship.
Several speakers pointed to ways government and the private sector can foster the creation of entrepreneurial ventures with a global outlook. Professor William F. Miller, co-director of the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), focused attention on the need to support the full entrepreneurial habitat—including an active angel investor and venture community, entrepreneurial education, passionate entrepreneurs, and business services (legal, consulting, financial) that understand the needs of start-up companies. Additionally, several speakers suggested that mid-career hiring by large Japanese firms and greater willingness on their part to grow by acquisition would increase labor mobility and expand opportunities for entrepreneurial ventures. They expressed concern that, at present, a public offering of shares is practically the only option for startup firms to exit the venture stage in Japan. Others highlighted how greater English-language proficiency and changes in immigration law could expand the linkages between Japan and the global community of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists.
Larry W. Sonsini, Chairman of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, reflected on the waves of innovation that Silicon Valley has generated, both in terms of new technologies coming to market as well as the maturing of technology already out. Defining Silicon Valley as a culture rather than a place, he outlined the ingredients in the recipe for its success: an entrepreneurial culture, with such features as mobility of talent, diversity, and acceptance of failure as a type of learning; ready access to capital; sources of technology and technologists, particularly from universities and large forward-looking corporations; government support; developed laws and accounting systems; availability of exit options for ventures; and an infrastructure of lawyers, accountants, bankers, and consultants. He also offered his thoughts on key trends that will influence the position and direction of emerging technology companies, including: globalization, regulatory changes, development of capital markets, education, and the rule of law.
In the closing remarks of the day-long symposium, Robert Eberhart, a SPRIE researcher and the leader of the SPRIE-STAJE project, summarized the three potential roles for governments to play in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship: to establish rules to ensure fair dealing and access to the market; to rewrite (i.e., reform) the rules of a market thereby ensuring firms will address it in new ways; and to stimulate demand for advanced technology by purchasing it for its own reasons, thereby creating new opportunities for entrepreneurial technology ventures.