Environment

FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

At the Fourth Sejong National Strategy Breakfast Forum on December 2, 2010, Michael Armacost offered remarks on the security environment in Northeast Asia, sharing insights from past decades to provide better contextual understanding of the current regional situation. Armacost provided suggestions for dealing with a changing North Korea, and spoke to China's increasing political and economic confidence, regional maritime disputes, the Democratic Party of Japan's foreign policy, and the future of U.S.-Asia relations.

Korean- and English-language versions of the remarks are available for download.

Lotte Hotel, Seoul, Korea

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Former Shorenstein APARC Fellow
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Michael Armacost (April 15, 1937 – March 8, 2025) was a Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from 2002 through 2021. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four-year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines.

Armacost began his career in academia, as a professor of government at Pomona College. In 1969, he was awarded a White House Fellowship and was assigned to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of State. Following a stint on the State Department's policy planning and coordination staff, he became a special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Tokyo from 1972 to 74, his first foreign diplomatic post. Thereafter, he held senior Asian affairs and international security posts in the State Department, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. From 1982 to 1984, he served as U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and was a key force in helping the country undergo a nonviolent transition to democracy. In 1989, President George Bush tapped him to become ambassador to Japan, considered one of the most important and sensitive U.S. diplomatic posts abroad.

Armacost authored four books, including, Friends or Rivals? The Insider's Account of U.S.–Japan Relations (1996), which draws on his tenure as ambassador, and Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections (2015). He also co-edited, with Daniel Okimoto, the Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia, published in 2004 by Shorenstein APARC. Armacost served on numerous corporate and nonprofit boards, including TRW, AFLAC, Applied Materials, USEC, Inc., Cargill, Inc., and Carleton College, and he currently chairs the board of The Asia Foundation.  

A native of Ohio, Armacost graduated from Carleton College and earned his master's and doctorate degrees in public law and government from Columbia University. He received the President's Distinguished Service Award, the Defense Department's Distinguished Civilian Service Award, the Secretary of State's Distinguished Services Award, and the Japanese government’s Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun.

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Michael Armacost Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Speaker Shorenstein APARC, FSI, Stanford
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China is transforming itself, and the world is adapting in response. Profound forces have reshaped the country's socioeconomic and political landscapes, but they have also brought challenges—growing pains—that China must face if it is to continue its upward trajectory.

Despite its successes, China is experiencing sharp growing pains. Rising levels of protest have accompanied the country's wrenching structural transformation. Corruption has prompted some observers to claim that the Chinese government is nothing short of a "predatory state." Legal reform continues to languish. Given that such challenges remain, can it be said that China's structural changes have succeeded? Or is the country trapped in transition?

"Growing Pains deserves the attention of every scholar interested in contemporary China." -Scott Kennedy, Indiana University

Growing Pains contains new analytical and empirical research from preeminent scholars working on contemporary China. These scholars identify which of the many problems thought to threaten China's reforms are not as serious as some interpreters claim, as well as those that have already been solved. Further, they point to other high-profile challenges, some of which truly are serious and loom on the horizon. With thoughtful, nuanced analysis, the contributors tackle thorny issues in China's ongoing reforms—employment, land policy, village elections, family planning, health care, social inequality, and environmental degradation—and use rich survey data and on-the-ground observation to assess the severity of the problems and the likelihood of near-term solutions.

Moving beyond the hype and hysteria that often characterize conversations about contemporary China, Growing Pains seeks to present not an optimistic or pessimistic perspective but rather an objective, empirically based view of the country's transition.

Examination copies: Desk, examination, or review copies can be requested through Stanford University Press.

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Tensions and Opportunity in China's Transformation

Authors
Jean C. Oi
Scott Rozelle
Xueguang Zhou
Book Publisher
Shorenstein APARC
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Kirk R. Smith will speak about his current research on health-damaging and climate-changing air pollution from household energy use in developing Asia, including field measurement and health-effects studies in India, China, and Nepal, compared to other countries such as Mexico and Guatemala. The work encompasses developing and deploying small, smart, and cheap microchip-based monitors as well as tools for international policy assessments.

Dr. Smith is Professor of Global Environmental Health and Director of the Global Health and Environment Program at the School of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley.  Previously, he was founder and head of the Energy Program of the East-West Center in Honolulu, where he still holds appointment as Adjunct Senior Fellow in Environment and Health after moving to Berkeley in 1995. He serves on a number of national and international scientific advisory committees including the Global Energy Assessment, National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, the Executive Committee for WHO Air Quality Guidelines, and the International Comparative Risk Assessment. He participated along with many other scientists in the IPCC's 3rd and 4th assessments and thus shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He holds visiting professorships in India and China and bachelors, masters, and doctoral degrees from UC Berkeley. In 1997, he was elected a member of the US National Academy of Sciences. In 2009, he received the Heinz Prize in Environment.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Kirk R. Smith Professor of Global Environmental Health and Director of the Global Health and Environment Program at the School of Public Health Speaker University of California, Berkeley
Seminars
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In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and with the advent of a new Japanese government, the long-simmering concept of an East Asian Community (EAC) has come to a boil. Trilateral discussions among China, Japan, and South Korea--the "Plus Three"--have accelerated, including early steps toward formation of a trilateral free trade area. The Obama administration has responded with new interest in regionalism, including discussion of new trans-Pacific trade agreements and a bid to join the budding East Asia Summit process. In November 2010, the trans-Pacific APEC will convene in Japan, and the next annual meeting, in 2011, will take place in Hawaii.

This period could shape the future of regionalism in East Asia, but many questions have yet to be answered. Will former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's initiative to build a new regional order on the core of Japan-China-ROK ties bear fruit? How does this concept of an EAC compare to other visions of regional integration, from APEC to the ASEAN-plus process? Will the ASEAN member nations cede leadership of the drive for tighter integration to Northeast Asia? Will the gravitational power of China's booming economy overwhelm concerns about its political system, military nontransparency, and possible ambition for regional hegemony? What role will the United States seek to play in Asian regionalism, and what will Asia's response be?

On September 9 and 10, 2010, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) at Stanford University convened the second Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue. This distinguished gathering discussed the latest research into the course of regionalism across several dimensions: regional vs. trans-Pacific trade and production networks; traditional and nontraditional security; the intersection of historical memories and national cultures in forging, or thwarting, a new regional identity; and possible futures for the regional order and how it might interact with other transnational institutions.

The goal of the Dialogue was to facilitate discussion, on an off-the-record basis, among scholars, policymakers, media, and other experts from across Asia and the United States, and to establish trans-Asian networks that focus on issues of common concern.

The first Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue was held September 10-11, 2009, in Kyoto, on the theme of "Energy, Environment, and Economic Growth in Asia."

Kyoto International Community House Event Hall
2-1 Torii-cho, Awataguchi,
Sakyo-ku Kyoto, 606-8536
JAPAN

Seminars
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Objective: To show the pattern of patient satisfaction with top-level delivery organizations (Level 2 and Level 3 hospitals), and using neo-institutionalism approach to explain the relatively low satisfaction and to explore the limitations with top providers, focusing on how to improve the competence of Level 2 and Level 3 hospitals at both the individual hospital level and the whole delivery system level.

Data Sources/Study Setting: The household survey by the National Bureau of Statistics in China in 2008; China Health Statistics Yearbooks.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods: The analysis uses a 2008 sample medical experiences of 5,036 residents from 17 provinces collected in a household survey by the National Bureau of Statistics in China. The linear regression model, the structural difference regression model, and the ordered probit model are used in our framework.

Principal Findings: The imbalance between the needs of patients and the limited competence of top-level providers, and the conflict between the business expansion and the limited competence of those providers are deeply and widely influenced by patterns of patient needs, the top providers’ expansion, and the institutional environment.

Conclusions: In order to effectively respond to patient needs, top and lower level providers need to set their own individual priorities. The government needs to improve institutional arrangements to respond to patient needs with the development of a fair and appropriate reimbursement and compensation pricing mechanism, and with further evaluation of top level providers’ advanced and limited health services.

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Working Papers
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Asia Health Policy Program working paper #19
Authors
Qunhong Shen
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Between 1958 and 1962, China descended into hell." So opens Mao's Great Famine: A History of China's Most Devastating Catastrophe, Frank Dikötter's riveting and magnificently detailed chronicle of the Great Leap Forward. Using previously restricted archives, historian Dikötter reveals that under this initiative the country became the site not only of one of the most deadly mass killings of human history (at least 45 million people were worked, starved or beaten to death) but also the greatest demolition of real estate - and catastrophe for the natural environment - in human history, as up to a third of all housing was turned to rubble and the land savaged in the maniacal pursuit of steel and other industrial accomplishments. Piecing together both the vicious machinations in the corridors of power and the everyday experiences of ordinary people, Dikötter at last gives voice to the dead and disenfranchised.

Frank Dikötter is Chair Professor of Humanities at the University of Hong Kong and Professor of the Modern History of China on leave from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. He has published nine books on  modern China, from the classic The Discourse of Race in Modern China(1992) to China before Mao: The Age of Openness (2007). 

**Books will be available for purchase during this event.**

Philippines Conference Room

Frank Dikotter Professor of the Modern History of China Speaker School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Lectures

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room C302-23
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-3368 (650) 723-6530
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Visiting Scholar
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Hong Lian is a PhD candidate in sociology at Peking University and a current visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. His main area of research is on institutional operations and changes, with a focus on governmental institutions and organizations in China.

Lian is researching bureaucratic environmental regulations. He is utilizing in-depth participatory observations to understand how institutions affect government officials' behaviors, how officials respond to institutional changes, and how institutions are created and altered.

His most recent publication is the forthcoming article "The Limit of Bureaucratic Power in Organizations: The Case of the Chinese Bureaucracy" (with Xueguang Zhou and Yun Ai), in Research in the Sociology of Organizations.

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Looking ahead to 2025, Thomas Fingar, examined significant issues--including economic, natural resource, climate change, and demographic factors--with the potential to shape the future, to an audience of more than 400 members of the World Affairs Council of Hilton Head Island. Dr. Fingar's observations were based on the National Intelligence Council report "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World."
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Authors
Donald K. Emmerson
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The United States and the ASEAN group of nations have further strengthened political, economic and security ties, after their second full-scale summit in New York.

President Barack Obama said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which groups ten countries, had the potential for true world leadership. President Obama also made it clear that he saw Asia as a vital plank of US foreign policy.

DR EMMERSON: In the run-up to the summit, there was a big question. Would the partnership be declared as being strategic in nature? That was a key word in the discussion and what happened was the leaders basically finessed the issue. It's not hard to suspect that they worried that if they declared a strategic partnership with the United States, this would cause alarm in Beijing. Because let's remember in the run-up to this summit, we've had a lot of activity - the split between China and Japan over the disputed islands, one could continue with some evidence of a more muscular Chinese foreign policy, its commitment to its claim to possess basically the entire South China Sea, escalating that to the level of a core interest, presumably equivalent to their interest in recovering Taiwan. I could go on, but in many case, it was understandable that the subtext of the meeting was what will China think? So basically what the summit did was to finesse the issue. They decided to pass on the question of raising the partnership to quote - a strategic level - unquote, to the ASEAN US Eminent Persons Group, presumably expert advisors that would be convened and would make recommendations down the road.

And one of the most remarkable things about the statement was how much ground it covered. I mean, among the topics and issues that the leaders committed themselves to do something about, were 14 as I count them, 14 different subjects. Human rights, educational change, trade and investment, science, technology, climate change, interfaith dialogue, disaster management, illicit trafficking, international terrorism, I could go on. So it is clear to me that one of the tasks that ASEAN and the US will have to face in the coming months, is to try to insert some sense of priority.

LAM: On that issue of priority, the US President, Barack Obama, of course, postponed a couple of visits to Indonesia due to pressing domestic demands. Did he in anyway express American commitment to the ASEAN region?

DR EMMERSON: Yes, this was particularly kind of, I suppose you could say, evident in the fact that the meeting occurred at all, finally it was organized. It lasted two hours. He was apparently quite engaged and engaging during that period of time. And I think there is no question that the United States under his administration is committed to South East Asia as a region, indeed has agreed with the leaders of ASEAN, that ASEAN should play a central role in the process of building regional cooperation in East Asia.

LAM: And, of course, one of the topics that came up as well was the South China Sea, that entire region, given the competing maritime and territorial claims vis-à-vis the Spratley and Paracel Island groups. Do you think China is watching the US relationship with ASEAN, this growing relationship - do you think Beijing might be watching it with unease?

DR EMMERSON: Yes, absolutely. I am confident that they are watching it with considerable unease and I note that the statement that the leaders made, made no reference whatsoever to the South China Sea, presumably because of sensitivity with regard to Beijing's possible reaction. The topic was implicitly mentioned, but not explicitly.

LAM: And what about within ASEAN, the grouping itself? The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, on the weekend said that the ASEAN nations' credibility might suffer if they did not take a tougher line with Burma and this is in view of the upcoming elections in November. This is presumably directed at specifically China and India, but it could also be referenced to ASEAN could it not, because Burma is a member of ASEAN. Do you see that changing anytime soon with ASEAN, that ASEAN countries, leading members like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, that they might take a stronger stand with the military junta in Rangoon?

DR EMMERSON: The election in Myanmar, if I can call it an election, since it will be highly compromised and manipulated will take place, at least is scheduled to take place November 7th. Indonesia does not take over the chairmanship of ASEAN until the 1st January. So the question is, since Indonesia is a democratic country, arguably, the most democratic of any country in South East Asia, will it use its opportunity to try to put pressure on Burma in the year 2011? My own view is that ASEAN will probably not fulfill Ban Ki-moon's hope, will not exercise significant pressure on the junta. Instead, we could get the opposite situation in which so long as there is not major violence associated with the election, it will essentially be received by ASEAN as a kind of minimally-acceptable basis for assuring the Burmese junta that ASEAN still treats them as a full member. In other words, it's quite possible that the junta may get away with what I take to be a kind of facade effort to legitimate their rule.

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Donald K. Emmerson, director of the Southeast Asia Forum
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