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The demographic billionaires China and India are experiencing rapid population changes and social shifts, fast economic growth, poverty decline, a booming modern business sector, and rising human capital in the labor force age groups.  Because 37% of the entire world population lives in these two countries, the breathtaking transformations in India and China are causing major dislocations in the global economy and big changes in measures of world development.  This colloquium will highlight the most important demographic, social, and economic trends happening in China and India today, will compare and contrast the current situations and future prospects of these two powerhouses, and will focus on implications for Asia and the world today and in the coming decade.

Dr. Judith Banister is the director of Global Demographics for The Conference Board, the world’s premier business research and business membership organization, with offices in New York, Brussels, Beijing, Hong Kong, and New Delhi.  She is an expert on the demography of China and received her Ph.D. in demography and development from Stanford.

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Judith Banister Director of Global Demographics Speaker The Conference Board
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Michael H. Armacost
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Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost discusses U.S.-South Korea ties and points out challenges ahead. "From free trade to North Korea's nuclear threat," writes Armacost in the Christian Science Monitor, "both sides must move past years of missteps."

Stanford, Calif. - The visit this week of South Korea's new president, Lee Myung Bak, offers a rare opportunity to put the American-Korean relationship back on a more solid footing. President Lee, who won a decisive victory in last December's election, has expressed views on the security alliance, a bilateral free trade agreement, and policy toward North Korea that are thoroughly compatible with US interests. And Mr. Lee's authority was bolstered by his party's substantial victory in legislative elections April 9.

The question is whether Washington is poised to take advantage of this convergence of views.

For the past eight years, a major perception gap between Seoul and Washington has been painfully evident. Our governments often worked at cross-purposes in the six-party talks to denuclearize North Korea. Progressive governments in South Korea encouraged peaceful coexistence with the North through a pattern of unreciprocated engagement. For much of that time, the Bush administration sought to isolate and pressure Pyongyang into relinquishing its nuclear ambitions, and it made little effort to conceal its hopes for a regime change in Pyongyang.

When Washington decided to move its military headquarters out of Seoul in 2003, many Korean officials suspected that the Americans were just eager to get troops out of North Korean artillery range. President Roh Moo Hyun at times seemed interested in carving out a role as a balance wheel between the major powers in Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, the US was preoccupied by problems in the Middle East, and some American officials wondered if the US-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance could long survive when one party dismissed the North Korean threat while the other viewed it as increasingly menacing.

Now comes Lee, a former mayor of Seoul and Hyundai construction executive with a reputation for tough-minded, pragmatic conservatism, eager to correct what he described as the misguided priorities of past ROK administrations. In a recent meeting with New Beginnings, a group of American policy experts on Korea, Lee appeared determined to accord priority to the alliance with the United States, exact a measure of reciprocity from the North, forestall major economic concessions to the North until it abandons its nuclear activities, and design a more ambitious global role for his country.

Surely Washington welcomes Lee's priorities. The tougher question is whether it can work effectively with him to translate shared aims into concrete results. This will pose three particular challenges.

First, on the nuclear issue, undeniably, bilateral talks with Pyongyang can facilitate diplomatic progress. There are dangers as well. Disconnects with the Japanese have deepened, and their officials occasionally complain about American "betrayals" in the discussions with Pyongyang. The North has consistently sought to use the negotiations to split the US and its allies. Success in the talks requires coordinated diplomacy between the US and the North's neighbors – especially with South Korea. In the past it often appeared that South Korean presidents worried less about Pyongyang's nuclear activities than Washington's possible reactions to them.

Today, there is the danger that South Korean conservatives may fear that Washington will ultimately acquiesce in North Korea's nascent nuclear status. No attempt to contain, let alone eliminate, the North Korean nuclear program can succeed unless the US and ROK governments work closely together. This will require a higher standard of candor and mutual trust in bilateral consultations than has been typical in recent years.

Second, the ratification of the Korea-US free-trade agreement (FTA) is a vital piece of unfinished business. Lee appears prepared to resume imports of US beef (halted due to mad cow disease concerns), essential to moving the FTA forward in Congress. Unfortunately, the Democratic presidential contenders are pandering to special interests on trade issues in a way they will probably later regret. Both sides have strategic and commercial interests at stake. The US stands to gain much more in increased exports from the FTA, while the Koreans hope that liberalizing foreign access to their economy will make them more competitive. So there is much to gain by nailing down this deal. A failure to complete it would be a significant strategic setback for our partnership.

Third, there is the question as to whether our political cycles will again diverge. For the past eight years, the US has been led by one of its most conservative administrations, while South Korea was headed by its most liberal president. Missteps were, perhaps, inevitable. And they have persisted, even though some effective work was done behind the scenes to forge cooperative arrangements on trade and force-deployment issues.

Lee's election signifies a conservative swing in South Korea's politics, while polls suggest the US may be moving in the opposite direction. Thus, a felicitous convergence of US and ROK official perspectives could prove fleeting. Yet the interests we share in expanded commerce, in modernizing our alliance, and in approaching the North with a joint strategy for "denuclearization" are compelling. They transcend partisan politics. They serve our respective national interests. The time to capitalize on them is now.

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About the talk
SPRIE's spring seminar series on the emerging environment for entrepreneurship in Japan has examined the state of venture capital (Michael Korver), changes in corporate governance (Robert Eberhart), and the division within Japanese society on the future of the Japanese economy (Yoko Ishikura).

Now, to conclude the series, Brian Nelson will provide his views on the outlook for Japanese startups--a unique perspective from the (non-Japanese) CEO of a Japanese Internet sales and marketing company.

About the speaker
As CEO of ValueCommerce, Brian Nelson negotiated and completed a TOB (Tender Offer Bid) with YAHOO! Japan in 2005. In 2006, he led ValueCommerce to a successful IPO resulting in a market capitalization of more than $300 million.

Prior to ValueCommerce, Nelson was Director of Sales and Marketing for the Gallup Organization in Japan. He also worked in Business Development with a non-life insurer, Tokyo Marine and Fire Insurance, and as a sales executive for Ashisuto, a Japan computer software company. Nelson has a degree in business administration from the University of Southern California. He has been a resident of Japan since 1990 and is a fluent Japanese speaker.

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Brian Nelson CEO Speaker ValueCommerce
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About the talk
Japan is at a critical turning point in 2008, with two opposing groups and views. One is the view that Japan, with its current social, political and economic system, will have difficulty renewing itself, while the other view is that the past success formula of a closed corporate innovation system supported by engineers and "hardware driven" technology is still viable.

With the accelerating pace of globalization and ICT, what will become of Japan, its private sector and public sector? Will its once-leading clean and green technologies survive and make an impact on the resolution of global issues? What are the potential areas for collaboration with the innovative and dynamic Silicon Valley?

About the speaker
As professor of business strategy and innovation at the Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy at Hitotsubashi University, Dr. Yoko Ishikura teaches the Competitiveness and Problem Solving courses, is responsible for the Executive Opinion Survey in Japan for the Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum, and is a member of the Council for Science & Technology Policy at the Japanese Cabinet Office.

She was a board member of Japan Post and Vodafone KK and is currently a member of the board at Mitsui OSK Lines and the advisory board of All Nippon Airways and is a frequent speaker/moderator at various international forums and seminars, including the Global Innovation Ecosystem Conference, the World Economic Forum and the World Knowledge Forum, among others.

She received an MBA from the Darden School, University of Virginia and DBA from Harvard Business School. She worked at McKinsey Inc. Japan in the late 1980s. Her “Act Globally, Think Locally” was one of the breakthrough ideas for 2007 in the Harvard Business Review.

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Yoko Ishikura Professor Speaker Hitotsubashi University
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About the talk

Kicking off SPRIE's seminar series on the emerging environment for entrepreneurship in Japan, this presentation will focus on the changing pattern of venture capital (VC) investments there. Michael Korver will address issues related to venture capital, entrepreneurship and innovation in Japan in the context of the experiences of Global Venture Capital and its partners during the last twelve years.

Recently, Japan has seen a rapid evolution of financing for new firms, including rapid changes to its VC industry. Mr. Korver's firm is in the vanguard of that evolution. He will discuss aspects of Japanese VC companies from their earliest inception to the latest trends--from bank subsidiaries to independent funds--and he will share his observations about entrepreneurial startups in Japan.

About the speaker

Michael Korver is a co-founding partner of Global Venture Capital (GVC). He was born and raised in Tokyo and first developed his insider's perspective on Asian business from his experience as an analyst at the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo from 1983 until 1986, and as an international transactions lawyer with Richards & O'Neil in New York and Tokyo from 1987 until 1993.

Since 1993 Korver has worked as an international business consultant, corporate lawyer, venture capitalist and entrepreneur in Tokyo. He has founded or co-founded several companies and has served on the boards of a number of them. From 1999 until 2002 he was in charge of legal and business affairs at The News Corporation Limited Japan, the Japanese operations of the international media conglomerate. Korver currently serves as professor in the MBA program at the Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy of Hitotsubashi University where he teaches courses in entrepreneurship and venture capital.

Korver received the BA, the MA in Economics and the JD all from the University of California at Berkeley. He is licensed to practice law in the States of New York and California.

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Michael Korver Managing Partner Speaker Global Venture Capital
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Shorenstein APARC is pleased to announce the winners of the 2008-09 Shorenstein Fellowship. Christian von Luebke and Li Han will join the center in fall 2008, each for a one-year term.

Dr. von Luebke completed his Ph.D. in 2007 in policy and governance at the Crawford School of Economics and Government, the Australian National University. He also holds a masters in Economics and a B.A. in Business and Political Science from Muenster University. He is currently working on a book that analyzes the determinants for local policy variation in Post-Suharto Indonesia. During his stay at the center, he will extend his work on local governance to other Asian transition countries, in particular China and the Philippines.

Li Han is currently a Ph.D. candidate at Harvard University. She expects to receive her Ph.D. in economics in June 2008. She also holds an M.A. in economics from Peking University and a B.A. from Xi'an Jiaotong University in China.

Li Han's primary fields are development economics and political economy. She is particularly interested in political incentives in nondemocracies and public policy issues in developing countries. She is currently working on a project that analyzes the link between economic liberalization and autocracies.

APARC looks forward to their arrival in the fall.

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Karen Eggleston
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The Asia Health Policy Program of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center invites scholars from multiple disciplines to join the Asia-Pacific Health Policy Forum (APHPF) by creating your own account on our website.  Your information will be saved in our online database, searchable by name, country or region of focus, discipline, and topic.  

The mission of the Asia-Pacific Health Policy Forum (APHPF) is to serve as a resource for social science research, teaching, and evidence-based policymaking about health and healthcare in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Specifically, APHPF aims to

  • encourage collaboration among social scientists doing research on health policy in the Asia-Pacific region;
  • serve as a resource for teaching about health and healthcare in specific countries and regions within the Asia-Pacific;
  • provide analysis to inform policy, by offering a forum for rapid dissemination of policy-relevant research results, as well as by linking organizations, programs, conferences and white papers about specific health policy issues; and
  • raise awareness and foster dialogue among researchers, policymakers, and business about cross-cutting themes and global challenges of health and healthcare access, quality, and cost, within the specific historical and cultural contexts of the diverse nations of the Asia-Pacific. 

We encourage all researchers with an interest in health and healthcare in the Asia-Pacific to create an account and to submit information about upcoming conferences and sessions within larger disciplinary conferences that focus on any aspect of health policy in the Asia-Pacific to the Forum coordinator, Karen Eggleston

There are no membership dues, as the Forum is currently supported by the Asian Health Policy Program of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.

The Asia-Pacific Health Policy Forum represents a multidisciplinary effort to build organizational linkages and work toward developing an Asia-Pacific parallel to the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policy.

With your help, the APHPF can develop into a vibrant resource and networking support for all of us seeking to understand and improve health and healthcare systems in the region.

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