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Straub addresses abrupt change in North Korea agreement

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North Korea’s government announced it will launch a long-range rocket to orbit a satellite within a few days of the 100th anniversary of founder Kim Il Sung’s birthday on Apr. 15.

The statement comes on the heels of an important U.S.-North Korea agreement on Feb. 29, in which the United States promised to provide North Korea with 240,000 tons of food aid over the next year while North Korea would refrain from nuclear and long-range missile tests and allow international inspection of its declared nuclear facilities. The situation echoes that of 2009, when North Korea also gave advance notice of a "peaceful" long-range rocket launch. North Korea’s 2009 missile test prompted a United Nations condemnation, after which North Korea conducted its second test of a nuclear device.

David Straub, associate director of Stanford’s Korean Studies Program and a former State Department Korea expert, speaks about North Korea’s latest statement.

Why is the new North Korea announcement of possible concern?

This type of launch is something the U.N. Security Council earlier condemned and forbade North Korea to do again. There is a large overlap in the technologies used for such a rocket and for a long-range ballistic missile, and the international community is deeply suspicious that North Korea will use what it learns from such launches to develop long-range missile technology.

The larger concern is that North Korea intends eventually to pair long-range missiles with nuclear warheads, creating a much greater threat to other countries, including the United States.

Was there any indication North Korea would issue this statement?

Given North Korea’s history of reneging on deals, the Obama administration wisely noted at the time of the Feb. 29 announcement that it was a "limited" agreement. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that North Korea’s upholding of its side of the agreement would be the key to the deal’s overall success.

There is no doubt the U.S. government would not have announced this agreement if it had anticipated that North Korea would almost immediately have declared its intention to launch another long-range rocket.

Why would North Korea decide to announce a rocket launch?

At this point, we can only speculate about North Korea’s motivations for the announcement. It could be related to the recent leadership succession in North Korea. Kim Jong Un, the grandson of Kim Il Sung, is an inexperienced leader still in his 20s. He and his advisors may feel it is necessary to defy the United States so blatantly to demonstrate at home how strong a leader he is. 

Or perhaps, after testing two nuclear devices and several long-range missiles, the North Korean government has become more confident about its diplomatic ability to withstand international condemnations and sanctions.

In any event, it is a stunning slap in the face of the Obama administration, which will need to react firmly. Already, less than 24 hours after the North Korean announcement, the Department of State has publicly said that the entire Feb. 29 agreement, including the delivery of food aid, has been put on hold.  

What should we expect to happen next?

A real danger is that the events of 2009 will be repeated. The North Korean government reacted angrily to the U.N. Security Council’s presidential statement against it three years ago, and withdrew from the Six-Party Talks. Pyongyang then proceeded to conduct a nuclear test only a month later.

The most worrisome aspect is the possibility that the new leadership in North Korea feels insecure at home and thus obliged to act tough, and also has poor judgment about the United States and the international community as a whole. If so, the North Korea issue could become significantly more confrontational—and dangerous—in the coming months.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

U.S. Department of State: North Korean announcement of missile launch

Reuters: North Korea’s missile and "satellite" programs

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A bronze statue of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, Sept. 2007. North Korea will celebrate the 100th anniversary of Kim's birth this year on Apr. 15. | Flickr/Will De Freitas
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Education And Employment Among Muslims In India - An Analysis Of Patterns And Trends

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After the submission of the Sachar Committee Report, several studies have undertaken data-based analysis of the socioeconomic and educational conditions of Muslims in India. Many researchers, policy makers, and Muslims believe that education can be the only mechanism to enhance their socioeconomic status and enter into better-paid jobs, businesses, and professions. This seminar will review the available evidence on the patterns of Muslim participation in education and workforce outcomes. Comparing the estimates derived from the most recent round of the National Sample Survey for the year 2009–2010 with the earlier years, it will assess how these patterns have changed in recent years. To the extent feasible the correlates of these changes will also be explored.

Rakesh Basant's current teaching and research interests focus on firm strategy, innovation, public policy, and regulation. His recent work has focused on capability building processes in industrial clusters; FDI in R&D; innovation-internalization linkages; competition policy; inter-organizational linkages for technology development (especially academia-industry relationships); strategic and policy aspects of intellectual property rights; linkages between public policy and technological change; economics of strategy; and the small-scale sector in India. His sectoral focus of research in these areas has been on the pharmaceutical, IT, electronics, and suto-component industries. Basant was a member of the Indian Prime Minister’s High-Level Committee (also known as Sachar Committee) to write a report on the social, economic, and educational conditions of Muslims in India. In continuation of this work, part of his current research focuses on issues relating to affirmative action, especially in higher education. Basant has also been a recipient of the of the Ford Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship in Economics, and has spent two years at the Economic Growth Center at Yale University as a visiting research fellow. In addition, he has worked as a consultant to several international organizations.

This seminar series is co-sponsored by the South Asia Initiative,

   

  

 

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Rakesh Basant Professor of Economics & Chairperson Speaker Center for innovation, Incubation & Entrepreneurship, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
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Understanding Muslim Minorities in Asia - The Inter-relationship of Socio-economic Status, Identity, and Politics

The Political Presence of India's Muslims

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This talk will look at the presence of Muslims in different arms of government, such as municipal councils/zilla parishads, state legislatures, and national legislatures. It will also explore whether Muslim issues are addressed at different levels of government, and it will examine future challenges Muslims will face.

Wajahat Habibullah, a former civil servant of the Indian Administrative Service, has spent much of his career in Jammu and Kashmir, especially in the Kashmir valley. He has written about his experiences in his book My Kashmir: Conflict and the Prospects of Enduring Peace (2008). He has also served on the staff of India’s Prime Ministers Indira and Rajiv Gandhi; as a minister in the Embassy of India in Washington, DC; as secretary in the Ministries of Textiles and Panchayati Raj, and the Department of Consumer Affairs; and administrator of the union territory of Lakshadweep.

After retiring from service Habibullah served as India’s first chief information commissioner, heading the final court of appeal under India’s Right to Information Act in 2005. A former Randolph Jennings Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC (2003–2004), Habibullah has been awarded the Rajiv Gandhi Award for Excellence in Secularism. Presently, he is chairperson of the National Commission for Minorities, and of the National Institute of Technology in Srinagar.

This seminar series is co-sponsored by the South Asia Initiative,

      

       

        

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Wajahat Habibullah Chairperson Speaker National Commission for Minorities, India
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Understanding Muslim Minorities in Asia - The Inter-relationship of Socio-economic Status, Identity, and Politics
South Asia Initiative

Stanford research poised to play role as Japan restructures power industry

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Northeastern Japan is rebuilding itself after last year's earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident. The devastation to the region is unquestionable, but so are the opportunities for energy industry reform and innovation. Masahiko Aoki and Kenji E. Kushida spoke with the Stanford News Service about developments in the region, and about possible links to Silicon Valley technologies.
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Tokyo Electric Power Company's Tama substation in northwest Tokyo, May 2010. | Flickr/ykanazawa1999
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The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

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As the U.S. presidential election campaign moves into full bore, what role will foreign policy play in the national debate and the presidential election? Does foreign policy matter to voters or do international issues take a back seat to domestic concerns?  How does the election affect the conduct of foreign policy?

Here to shed light on the presidential election and U.S. foreign policy are three prominent commentators, with moderator Coit Blacker.

Michael H. Armacost is the Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow at FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, a position he has held since 2002. He is the former president of the Brookings Institution, former under secretary of state for political affairs and former U.S. ambassador to Japan and the Philippines. 

David Brady is deputy director and Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is the Bowen and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values in Stanford's Graduate School of Business, a professor of political science in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a specialist on U.S. national elections. 

David M. Kennedy is the Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History, Emeritus at Stanford and Faculty Co-Director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West. Most famously, Professor Kennedy won the 2000 Pulitzer Prize for History for his book  Freedom from Fear: The American People in Depression and War, 1929-1945 (1999). 

Moderator: Coit D. Blacker is director and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and the Olivier Nomellini Family University Fellow in Undergraduate Education. During the first Clinton administration, Blacker served as special assistant to the president for National Security Affairs and senior director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs at the National Security Council (NSC). 

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Coit D. Blacker director and senior fellow, FSI, the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies and Olivier Nomellini Family University Fellow in Undergraduate Education Moderator

Michael H. Armacost

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Former Shorenstein APARC Fellow
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Michael Armacost (April 15, 1937 – March 8, 2025) was a Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from 2002 through 2021. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four-year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines.

Armacost began his career in academia, as a professor of government at Pomona College. In 1969, he was awarded a White House Fellowship and was assigned to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of State. Following a stint on the State Department's policy planning and coordination staff, he became a special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Tokyo from 1972 to 74, his first foreign diplomatic post. Thereafter, he held senior Asian affairs and international security posts in the State Department, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. From 1982 to 1984, he served as U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and was a key force in helping the country undergo a nonviolent transition to democracy. In 1989, President George Bush tapped him to become ambassador to Japan, considered one of the most important and sensitive U.S. diplomatic posts abroad.

Armacost authored four books, including, Friends or Rivals? The Insider's Account of U.S.–Japan Relations (1996), which draws on his tenure as ambassador, and Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections (2015). He also co-edited, with Daniel Okimoto, the Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia, published in 2004 by Shorenstein APARC. Armacost served on numerous corporate and nonprofit boards, including TRW, AFLAC, Applied Materials, USEC, Inc., Cargill, Inc., and Carleton College, and he currently chairs the board of The Asia Foundation.  

A native of Ohio, Armacost graduated from Carleton College and earned his master's and doctorate degrees in public law and government from Columbia University. He received the President's Distinguished Service Award, the Defense Department's Distinguished Civilian Service Award, the Secretary of State's Distinguished Services Award, and the Japanese government’s Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun.

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David Brady deputy director and Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution Speaker
David Kennedy Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History Emeritus at Stanford and Faculty Co-Director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West Speaker
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