The team of leaders who will take the helm in China beginning next year—the so-called “Fifth Generation”—will be better educated, have greater exposure to the outside world, and extensive experience implementing policies that have facilitated sustained economic growth and growing international influence. They may view issues somewhat differently than their predecessors but have risen to the top by going along to get ahead and are unlikely to propose radical policy initiatives.  But they must confront a growing number of challenges fueled by China’s past success and recent behavior and will be constrained by structural features of the Chinese system and integration into the global market.

Thomas Fingar is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). In 2009, he was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at FSI. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series. 

How certain is the future?

Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson addressed the intersection between crisis, uncertainty, and democracy in a keynote presentation at the 2011 annual conference of the Australian Political Studies Association.

Emmerson examined such global events as the large-scale financial crises of recent decades, the 9/11 attacks, and the Arab Spring. He argued that the current century is marked by increasing complexity and uncertainty, which interact to challenge global, regional, and national security in novel ways. It is urgent, he said, to adapt and craft political institutions that can respond quickly and aptly to these new demands.

Japan Colloquium Series Inaugural Event  
 

Japan is facing a major set of challenges in the aftermath of its triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. It had just begun recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis when the disasters hit. Richard Katz will discuss the economic and political prospects for Japan after this catastrophe in a broader global context. He will also be presenting lessons from Japan for U.S. policymakers fighting the current slump. 
 

Richard Katz is editor of the Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan, as well as the semi-weekly TOE Alert e-mail service on Japan. He is also a special correspondent at Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly. Katz is the author of two books on Japan. The first is Japan: The System That Soured--The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle (M.E. Sharpe,1998); it was published in a Japanese edition as Kusariyuku Nihon To Iu System (Toyo Keizai, 1999). His second book, entitled Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival (M.E. Sharpe, 2002), was published in English, and in Japanese as Fushicho no Nikon Keizai (Toyo Keizai). Katz has taught about Japan as an adjunct professor in economics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and at the New York University Stern School of Business. He regularly writes op-eds for newspapers such as the Asian Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, as well as essays for a variety of journals, including the article “The Japan Fallacy?” for the March-April 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs. He has testified about in Japan in Congress on several occasions. Katz received his MA in economics from New York University in 1996.

PLEASE NOTE VENUE CHANGE

In association with the annual Shorenstein Journalism Award for Asia, conferred this year on China's pioneering Caixin Media group, this panel will look at the current state and the future of the Chinese media. The Chinese state continues to play a powerful role in controlling the media and the free flow of information to the Chinese people. But China's media is undergoing rapid change, from the growing role of social media to the proliferation of new publications, some of which, like Caixin, are challenging the boundaries of state control. Which will win in China's changing media landscape—the forces of the market, state censorship, or quality journalism?

PANELISTS

Hu Shuli, editor-­in-chief of Caixin Media, and dean of the School of Communications and Design at Sun Yat-sen University, has a distinguished career that spans both print and broadcast journalism. Hu is a former Stanford Knight Journalism Fellow (1994) and a recipient of the Louis Lyons Award for Conscience and Integrity in Journalism (2007). She is frequently named on annual Who’s Who lists by publications such as Foreign Policy and Time Magazine.

Wang Shuo, managing editor of Caixin Media, was ranked among China’s top 10 young editors in 2011. He is a former international editor for People’s Daily, a Chinese government-run newspaper published nationally. Recognized as one of the brightest rising stars in his field, Wang was named as a Young Leader in 2007 and 2008 by the Boao Forum for Asia, and as a media leader by the World Economic Forum. He has led the investigative journalism teams at Caixin.

Orville Schell is the Arthur Ross Director at the Asia Society Center on U.S.-China Relations, and is also a former jury member for the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. He has written extensively on China, and was awarded the 1997 George Peabody Award for producing the groundbreaking documentary the Gate of Heavenly Peace. He received the Shorenstein Journalism Award in 2003.

Hu Ben, a journalist with Southern Weekend, is the current Lyle and Corrine Nelson International Knight Fellow at Stanford. He started his journalism career in 2005, when he joined a writer's network blogging about international affairs not covered by official media. At Southern Weekend, he has written about how Chinese government works, how public policies are made, and how information flows inside the government.

Daniel Sneider serves as the associate director for research at Shorenstein APARC and also as a research associate with the prestigious National Asia Research Program. He frequently contributes articles to publications such as Foreign Policy, Asia Policy, and Slate and had three decades of experience as a foreign correspondent and editor for publications including the Christian Science Monitor and the San Jose Mercury News. 

ABOUT THE AWARD

The Shorenstein Journalism Award was launched in 2002 to recognize the contributions of Western journalists in deepening our understanding of Asia. In 2011, the recipients of the award have been broadened to encompass Asian journalists who are at the forefront of the battle for press freedom in Asia and who have played a key role in constructing a new role for the media, including the growth of social media and Internet-based journalism. The award will also identify those Asian journalists who, from that side of the Pacific Ocean, have aided the growth of mutual understanding between Asia and the United States.

Carrying a cash prize of $10,000, the award was named after Walter H. Shorenstein, the philanthropist, activist, and businessman who endowed two institutions that are focused respectively on Asia and on the press: Shorenstein APARC in the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University, and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public Policy in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Read the 2011 Shorenstein Journalism Award press release for more details about Caixin and about the history of the award.

The designation of a new lead official to oversee U.S. relations with Pyongyang and the resumption of nuclear diplomacy in Geneva in late October yet again prompt attention to the open-ended nuclear impasse with North Korea. But any assessment of U.S. strategy requires an understanding of the history of nuclear weapons development in the DPRK—a history that long antedates U.S. negotiations with North Korea of the past two decades. How has North Korea defied, stymied, deferred, and circumvented the efforts of allies, adversaries, and the International Atomic Energy Agency to inhibit its development of nuclear weapons, all amidst international isolation and acute economic privation? What does the North’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons imply for security in Northeast Asia and for global non-proliferation policy? Drawing on Cold War archival materials, interviews with those with deep experience in North Korea, and assessments of technical development in the DPRK, this seminar will delve into the extraordinary history of this profoundly idiosyncratic system, and of its ability to shape security in a pivotal geostrategic region.

Jonathan D. Pollack is a senior fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center in the Foreign Policy Program of the Brookings Institution. He is the author, most recently, of No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security (Routledge/IISS, 2011), on which his seminar will draw.