International Development

FSI researchers consider international development from a variety of angles. They analyze ideas such as how public action and good governance are cornerstones of economic prosperity in Mexico and how investments in high school education will improve China’s economy.

They are looking at novel technological interventions to improve rural livelihoods, like the development implications of solar power-generated crop growing in Northern Benin.

FSI academics also assess which political processes yield better access to public services, particularly in developing countries. With a focus on health care, researchers have studied the political incentives to embrace UNICEF’s child survival efforts and how a well-run anti-alcohol policy in Russia affected mortality rates.

FSI’s work on international development also includes training the next generation of leaders through pre- and post-doctoral fellowships as well as the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program.

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A unified Korea is likely but it won’t come easily, said Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin, in a recent interview with NK News. The most plausible scenario is reunification following a breakdown of the North Korean regime and eventual South Korean absorption of the North.

“Of course, I cannot predict the timing of such an occurrence, but it is likely that it will happen in the not-too-distant future,” said Shin, director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in a Q&A among a panel of experts on inter-Korean relations.

In the event of unification, Shin says he is convinced it will be on South Korean terms. He said he doubts that the North Korean government, led by leader Kim Jong-Un and the ruling Worker’s Party of Korea, would find a role in South Korea’s democratic system.

Shin heads a multiyear research project focused on understanding the domestic and global implications of North Korea’s future. Earlier this year, he coauthored a policy brief assessing the situation and policy context on the Korean Peninsula. The report recommends steps that the South Korean government can take to engage North Korea toward the ultimate goal of Korean unification and a sustainable security environment in Northeast Asia.

The full Q&A can be accessed on NK News online.

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The Arch of Reunification, located outside Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea.
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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) remains a potentially destabilizing element of the Korean Peninsula, making it difficult to construct a regional architecture that could help preserve peace and prosperity. “Korean Reunification: An American View” suggests that transformation of the North Korean regime may be a prerequisite for Korean reunification and a key factor in building a sustainable future in Northeast Asia. The United States, the Republic of Korea, Japan and others must find ways to engage the North, without rewarding misbehavior. Two suggested approaches include pushing for Chinese-style reforms and increasing incentives for the DPRK elite.

 

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Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue 2015

"Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan"

January 22, 2015

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) in Association with U.S.-Japan Council 
 

The Japan Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University is continuing the "New Channels" dialogue which started in 2013 with support from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The project was launched to create new channels of dialogue between experts and leaders of younger generations from the United States, mostly from the West Coast, and Japan under name of "New Channels: Reinvigorating U.S.-Japan Relations," with the goal of reinvigorating the bilateral relationship through dialogue on 21st century challenges faced by both nations. 

Last year, in its inaugural year, the Stanford-SPF New Channels Dialogue 2014 focused on energy issues. This year's theme is innovation and entrepreneurship, which will take place on January 22 at Stanford University with participants that include business leaders, academia and experts from both the United States and Japan. On January 23, a closed dialogue among participants will be held at Stanford.

Shorenstein APARC will be tweeting about the conference at hashtag, #StanfordSPF. Join the conversation with the handle, @StanfordSAPARC.

 

Brief Agenda

9:15-9:30 
Welcome: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 
Yuji Takagi, President, Sasakawa Peace Foundation 
 

9:30-10:50 
Panel Discussion I: Current State of Silicon Valley Innovations

Chair: Kazuyuki Motohashi, Sasakawa Peace Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 
Tak Miyata, General Partner, Scrum Ventures 
Patrick Scaglia, Consultant and Technology Advisor, Startup Ventures and former senior executive, Hewlette Packard 
Norman Winarsky, Vice President, SRI Ventures, SRI International 


11:10-12:30 
Panel Discussion II: Current State of Innovations in Japan

Chair: Kenji Kushida, Research Associate, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Yusuke Asakura, Former CEO, mixi 
Takuma Iwasa, CEO, Cerevo 
Yasuo Tanabe, Vice President and Executive Officer, Hitachi Ltd. 
Hiroaki Yasutake, Managing Executive Office and Director, Rakuten

 

12:30-13:30 
Lunch

 

13:30-14:50 
Panel Discussion III: Taking Silicon Valley Innovations to Japan

Chair: Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jeff Char, President, J-Seed Ventures, Inc. and Chief Mentor, Venture Generation 
Akiko Futamura, President and CEO, InfiniteBio 
Allen Miner, Founder, Chairman & CEO, SunBridge Corporation 
John Roos, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan 
 

15:10-16:30 
Panel Discussion IV: The Japanese Innovation Ecosystem and Silicon Valley: Bringing them Together (How Japanese firms can make use of SV?)

Chair: Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Robert Eberhart, Assistant Professor, Santa Clara University and STVP Fellow, Stanford University 
Gen Isayama, CEO and Co-Founder, WiL (World Innovation Lab) 
Naoyuki Miyabe, Principal, Miyabe & Associates, LLC 
Hideichi Okada, Senior Executive Vice President, NEC Corporation 
 

Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan
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In conversation with Shorenstein APARC, Yong Lee, the SK Center Fellow, discusses his initial draw to architecture and urbanism, and the nexus of public policy and economics. Lee highlights some of his recent research activities focused on international sanctions on North Korea and educational policy as it relates to migration and housing patterns in South Korea. 

Your background is quite multifaceted, including years working in architecture and a master’s of public policy in addition to a doctorate in economics. How do all of these areas fit together to inform your research?

It took a while for me to figure out what I wanted to pursue as a career. As a high school student in Korea I had to choose a track that focused on either the physical sciences or the humanities/social sciences. At that age, it’s hard to know what you want to be. Simply because my father was an engineer, I chose the physical sciences track. When it was time to apply for college (one actually had to determine a major when applying for college back then), I became interested in international relations and wanted to become a diplomat. But given my training in the hard sciences and the fact that one had to choose a major when applying, I had to decide on a science or engineering major. After browsing through the library a few architecture books caught my eye, and I opted for architectural engineering as my major. 

I truly enjoyed my six years of architectural training but after working for an architectural firm for several years in Seoul, I realized I was more interested in the abstract ideas of architecture and urbanism and less of the actual design process that goes on in an architectural firm. I searched for my next career, became interested in urban and development policy, and pursued a master’s of public policy at Duke University. However, then I realized that economics would allow me to rigorously analyze the policy questions I was interested in. Fortunately, Brown University accepted me as a Ph.D. student and I eventually became an economist. It was through this search process, that I developed an interdisciplinary interest in policy relevant questions. My personal choices constrained by education policy, comparatively experiencing Korea’s transition while living between Korea and the United States each decade since the 1980s, and my interest in architecture and cities have shaped my research interest in economic development and growth with a focus on education, firms and cities.  And now being at FSI, I can immerse myself in international studies, something I had wanted to pursue all along. By joining Stanford, I think I finally discovered what I had wanted to do.

One of your research streams looks at the effects of sanctions on domestic populations, looking at the case study of North Korea. How did you derive data about the closed-off regime? What are your key findings?

Research on North Korea is challenging because of the dearth of data. I had been interested in how sanctions impact the domestic population, but to examine this question one would need regional level data within in North Korea. I decided to use the satellite night-lights data, which in recent years has been used as an alternative means to measure economic activity. I found that sanctions actually increase urban-rural inequality. An additional sanctions index increases the urban-rural luminosity gap by about 1 percent. However, if I focus on the more central urban areas the gap increases to about 2.6 percent. Since urban areas are more than ten times brighter than rural areas, the results imply that the gap further increases by 1 to 2.6 percent with additional sanctions.  Furthermore, I find that the urban areas actually get brighter while the rural areas get darker.

Another of your research focuses on the impact of 1970s education policy in South Korea on intergenerational mobility and migration. Can you explain this phenomenon? Does the case of South Korea relate to reform experiences in other countries?

Students in South Korea traditionally had to take an entrance exam to enter high schools. After the exam, high schools would choose students based on the exam scores. Given the variation in school quality, a hierarchy of high schools had existed and students who performed well would enter the top tier high schools. This system was heavily criticized since wealthier families could tutor children to prepare for the entrance exam. Eventually in the mid-1970s, the South Korean government abolished the exam-based system and moved to a school district based system where students would attend high schools based on residential location. By moving away from an exam system to a district system, policymakers hoped that educational opportunities would alleviate the persistence of inequality. However, what I find is that, to the contrary, the district system generated substantial sorting of households by income. Now wealthier households could simply move to districts and cities with the prestigious high schools. Given that the purchase of housing is purely determined by income, school quality became even more segregated by income and actually exacerbated the persistence of inequality across generations. This transition is now happening in several Chinese cities and in the United States – the sorting across school districts by educational outcome has created highly segregated towns. The Korea experiment allowed me to examine not just an equilibrium outcome, but also the transition when the policy changed.

In the coming year, you’ll be teaching courses related to the economies of East Asia. Can you provide an outlook on this?

I’ll be teaching an International Policy Studies course titled, “Economic Growth, Development, and Challenges of East Asia,” in the spring. The course will focus on China, Japan, and Korea, but also draw on Southeast Asian countries, when relevant. I will cover the rapid economic growth in recent decades and development policies pursued. However, I will also cover the current major economic challenges these countries face, some of which are rising income inequality, entrepreneurship, and an aging workforce. I hope to add to our rich set of courses by providing an economics and empirical viewpoint.

Tell us something we don’t know about you.

I sometimes split my sleep. That is, I go to bed to sleep for a few hours and then wake up in the middle of the dark, do some reading or work, and then sleep for one or two hours before I start my morning routine. It started during my high school years and it has stuck with me for quite a while now. Don’t worry, though. I sleep fine most of the time. I just sometimes enjoy the dead of the night.

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Asia-Pacific leaders recently met in Beijing at the annual APEC summit, and after two days of discussion, concluded with some significant pledges and remarkable moments. President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan held a landmark meeting, and the United States and China discussed two agreements that are both symbolic, and lay groundwork for regional progress, say Stanford scholars.

High-level intergovernmental meetings are often more theatre than substance, but this year the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the oldest trans-Pacific regional organization, delivered important messages and may spur actions by member governments.

“Any summit is a ‘hurry up, get this done’ motivator,” says Thomas Fingar, the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “The head of state goes to the meeting – and generally speaking – he doesn’t want to arrive and say ‘my guys were asleep for the last year.’”

Fingar says the APEC summit prodded countries to work on “deliverables,” particularly the goals and projects on the agenda from previous meetings. He recently returned from Beijing, and shared his perspectives with students in the Asia-Pacific Scholars Program.

Writing for the East Asia Forum, Donald Emmerson, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, said many of the commitments declared at the APEC summit, and at the subsequent meetings of the G20 in Australia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Myanmar, will have implications for global governance, particularly as China holds a more influential role in the region.

APEC countries account for over 40 percent of the world’s population and nearly half of global trade – and true to form, the grand vision of the summit is to advance regional economic integration.

Yet, “the ancillary things – things that went on in the margins – are in many ways more important,” Fingar says, referring to areas outside of the summit’s obvious focus, and what’s discussed on the sidelines of the public talks.

 

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Key outcomes from the 2014 gathering include:

  • The leaders of Japan and China met for the first time since coming into office, afterward acknowledging that the two countries have “disagreements” in their official statements. Of the Xi-Abe meeting, Fingar says, “it helps clear the way for lower level bureaucrats to go to work on real issues."

 

  • The United States and China announced a proposal to extend visas for students and businesspeople on both sides. While the immediate effects would be helpful, the change is symbolically superior. “You don’t give 5-10 year visas to adversaries,” he says, it shows that “‘we’re in [the relationship] for the long-term.’”

 

  • China proposed the development of a new “Silk Road,” pledging $40 billion in resources toward infrastructure projects shared with South and Central Asian neighbors. “It’s tying the region together and creating economy-of-scale possibilities for other countries,” he says. “A real win-win situation.”

 

  • The United States and China, the world’s two largest energy consumers, announced bilateral plans to cut carbon emissions over the next two decades. “It’s significant because those two countries must be the ones to lead the world in this area. Unless we are seen to be in basic agreement, others will hold back.”

 

  • China codified the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a global financial institution intended as an alternative to institutions like the World Bank. “China has been frustrated with its role in existing international institutions,” Fingar says, explaining a likely motivation behind the AIIB’s creation.

Emmerson said the outcomes of the APEC summit from the U.S.-China standpoint were better than expected, speaking to McClatchy News. The visa and climate deals, as well as their commitment to lowering global tariffs on IT products, will lessen chances of conflict between the two countries. 

However, the summit did leave some areas unsolved. One of the most important is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade pact proposed by the United States that includes 11 others countries in the region, but does not yet include China.

Leaders “made positive noises” coming out of the TPP discussions, Fingar says, but nothing was passed. The gravity and complexity of trade-related issues, especially agriculture and intellectual property, is likely to blame for slow action.

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Leaders pose for a group photo at the 22nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Beijing, China.
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This past May, India, a country of over 1.2 billion people, elected Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the new prime minister, shifting leadership away from an incumbent party that held power for the past few decades. This new government, set in the context of shifting political and security dynamics, brings new challenges for dialogue in a region that sees unresolved border disputes and historical tensions, particularly between China and India.

What impact will India’s new leadership have in Northeast Asia? How do historical relationships continue to shape the present? What is the outlook for policy priorities between India and countries in Northeast Asia? 

Scholars from the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University and the Brookings Institution’s India Center will offer perspectives in a panel discussion. This event is Shorenstein APARC’s inaugural event in New Delhi.

Participant Bios

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gi wook shin   2014
Gi-Wook Shin is the director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center; the Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies; the founding director of the Korea Program; a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; and a professor of sociology, all at Stanford University. As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, and international relations. Shin is the author/editor of sixteen books and numerous articles, the most recent including Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014) and New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014). Before coming to Stanford, Shin taught at the University of Iowa and the University of California, Los Angeles. After receiving his bachelor's degree from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his master's degree and doctorate from the University of Washington.

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vikram s mehta
Vikram S. Mehta currently serves as the executive chairman of Brookings India in New Delhi and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Mehta started his career with the Indian Administrative Service in 1978. He resigned in 1980 to join Phillips Petroleum in London as their senior economist. In 1984, he returned to India to join the government company Oil India Ltd. as an advisor for strategic planning. He joined Shell International in London in 1988. He was appointed managing director of Shell Markets and Shell Chemical Companies in Egypt in 1991, and chairman of the Shell Group of Companies in India in 1994.

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Portrait of Michael Armacost
Michael Armacost is the Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. He graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Carleton College as well as a master’s and doctorate in public law and government from Columbia University. He began his professional life as an instructor of government at Pomona College in 1962. Armacost entered the State Department in 1969 as a White House Fellow, and remained in public service for twenty-four years. During that time he held sensitive international security positions in the State Department, Defense Department, and the National Security Council. These included Ambassador to the Philippines from 1982-84, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs from 1984-89, and Ambassador to Japan from 1989-1993. Armacost subsequently served as president of the Brookings Institution from 1995-2002. 

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Karl Eikenberry
Karl Eikenberry is the William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and is a Distinguished Fellow with the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. He served as the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan from May 2009 until July 2011 and had a 35-year career in the United States Army, retiring with the rank of lieutenant general. His military assignments included postings with mechanized, light, airborne, and ranger infantry units in the continental United States, Hawaii, Korea, Italy, and Afghanistan as the Commander of the American-led Coalition forces from 2005–07. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, has earned master’s degrees from Harvard University in East Asian studies and Stanford University in political science, was awarded an Interpreter’s Certificate in Mandarin Chinese from the British Foreign Commonwealth Office, and earned an advanced degree in Chinese History from Nanjing University. 

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W.P.S. Sidhu is a senior fellow with Brookings India in New Delhi and Foreign Policy at Brookings. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation. His research focuses on India’s evolving grand strategy; the role of India and other emerging powers in the global order; addressing nuclear weapon challenges and security; and development challenges in fragile states. He is co-editor of the book Shaping the Emerging World: India and the Multilateral Order, published in August 2013 by Brookings Institution Press.

Agenda and Participant Bios
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Vikram S. Mehta <i>Moderator</i>; Chairman, Brookings India Center
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Michael Armacost (April 15, 1937 – March 8, 2025) was a Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from 2002 through 2021. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four-year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines.

Armacost began his career in academia, as a professor of government at Pomona College. In 1969, he was awarded a White House Fellowship and was assigned to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of State. Following a stint on the State Department's policy planning and coordination staff, he became a special assistant to the U.S. ambassador in Tokyo from 1972 to 74, his first foreign diplomatic post. Thereafter, he held senior Asian affairs and international security posts in the State Department, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. From 1982 to 1984, he served as U.S. ambassador to the Philippines and was a key force in helping the country undergo a nonviolent transition to democracy. In 1989, President George Bush tapped him to become ambassador to Japan, considered one of the most important and sensitive U.S. diplomatic posts abroad.

Armacost authored four books, including, Friends or Rivals? The Insider's Account of U.S.–Japan Relations (1996), which draws on his tenure as ambassador, and Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections (2015). He also co-edited, with Daniel Okimoto, the Future of America's Alliances in Northeast Asia, published in 2004 by Shorenstein APARC. Armacost served on numerous corporate and nonprofit boards, including TRW, AFLAC, Applied Materials, USEC, Inc., Cargill, Inc., and Carleton College, and he currently chairs the board of The Asia Foundation.  

A native of Ohio, Armacost graduated from Carleton College and earned his master's and doctorate degrees in public law and government from Columbia University. He received the President's Distinguished Service Award, the Defense Department's Distinguished Civilian Service Award, the Secretary of State's Distinguished Services Award, and the Japanese government’s Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun.

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Professor, by Courtesy, of East Asian Languages & Cultures
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Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in the Department of Sociology, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the founding director of the Korea Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) since 2001, all at Stanford University. In May 2024, Shin also launched the Taiwan Program at APARC. He served as director of APARC for two decades (2005-2025). As a historical-comparative and political sociologist, his research has concentrated on social movements, nationalism, development, democracy, migration, and international relations.

In Summer 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), which is a new research initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. Across four research themes– “Talent Flows and Development,” “Nationalism and Racism,” “U.S.-Asia Relations,” and “Democratic Crisis and Reform”–the lab brings scholars and students to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications. Shin’s latest book, The Four Talent Giants, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India to be published by Stanford University Press in the summer of 2025, is an outcome of SNAPL.

Shin is also the author/editor of twenty-seven books and numerous articles. His books include The Four Talent Giants: National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India (2025)Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (2022); The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security (2021); Superficial Korea (2017); Divergent Memories: Opinion Leaders and the Asia-Pacific War (2016); Global Talent: Skilled Labor as Social Capital in Korea (2015); Criminality, Collaboration, and Reconciliation: Europe and Asia Confronts the Memory of World War II (2014); New Challenges for Maturing Democracies in Korea and Taiwan (2014); History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia: Divided Memories (2011); South Korean Social Movements: From Democracy to Civil Society (2011); One Alliance, Two Lenses: U.S.-Korea Relations in a New Era (2010); Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia (2007);  and Ethnic Nationalism in Korea: Genealogy, Politics, and Legacy (2006). Due to the wide popularity of his publications, many have been translated and distributed to Korean audiences. His articles have appeared in academic and policy journals, including American Journal of SociologyWorld DevelopmentComparative Studies in Society and HistoryPolitical Science QuarterlyJournal of Asian StudiesComparative EducationInternational SociologyNations and NationalismPacific AffairsAsian SurveyJournal of Democracy, and Foreign Affairs.

Shin is not only the recipient of numerous grants and fellowships, but also continues to actively raise funds for Korean/Asian studies at Stanford. He gives frequent lectures and seminars on topics ranging from Korean nationalism and politics to Korea's foreign relations, historical reconciliation in Northeast Asia, and talent strategies. He serves on councils and advisory boards in the United States and South Korea and promotes policy dialogue between the two allies. He regularly writes op-eds and gives interviews to the media in both Korean and English.

Before joining Stanford in 2001, Shin taught at the University of Iowa (1991-94) and the University of California, Los Angeles (1994-2001). After receiving his BA from Yonsei University in Korea, he was awarded his MA and PhD from the University of Washington in 1991.

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Director of the Korea Program and the Taiwan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Director of Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, APARC
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The North Korean regime has adjusted to international sanctions by shifting that economic pain away from cities to the countryside, new Stanford research using satellite night lights data shows.

U.S. policy toward North Korea has been based on the expectation that economic sanctions could deter North Korea from developing nuclear weapons or change the behavior of the regime, according to Yong Suk Lee, a Stanford economist at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Since 1950, both the United States and the global community have adopted a series of economic sanctions against North Korea. The latest came in 2013 when the United Nations approved restrictions on banking, travel and trade in response to North Korea's underground nuclear test and threat to launch nuclear strikes against the United States and South Korea.

In a working paper, Lee examined how North Korea's Communist rulers have adapted to the increasingly tougher sanctions through the years.

"North Korea is one of many autocratic regimes that refuse to yield to sanctions, and its isolation and hereditary dictatorship make it a particularly good example to study the impact of economic sanctions in autocratic regimes," said Lee, the SK Center Fellow and a faculty member of the Korea Program at Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, Lee noted. Its leaders follow an economic model based on a centrally planned economy and self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world.

Satellite data

Lee's research was based on nighttime views of lights from data collected by the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. The researcher created "average luminosity" measures of lights across North Korea based on a 1-mile-by-1-mile grid for the years 1992 through 2010. Light usage was examined for brightness on one-minute intervals.

To predict the impact of sanctions on economic activity in North Korea, Lee used a formula that transformed the luminosity measures into GDP measures. For example, a 10 percent change in the satellite lights is associated with about a 3 percent change in GDP.

According to Lee, satellite data is of greatest utility in assessing the economies of cities and regions in the developing world. In a country like North Korea, a large part of economic activity happens during the evening and night and involves light. For example, lights at night are generated by peoples' consumption of goods and services as well as transportation. And some production activities happen during the evening hours.

"Economists have found that how bright night lights are can predict national and sub-national GDP quite well, especially in countries where GDP data is not reliable," he said.

Lee found that economic sanctions decreased luminosity in the hinterlands, but increased luminosity in urban areas, especially toward the centers. As for whether additional sanctions affected luminosity, he found they increased the urban-rural luminosity gap by about 1 percent. When he examined the more central urban areas, the gap increased by about 2.6 percent.

"The results suggest that the dictatorship countered the effects of sanctions by reallocating resources to the urban areas," Lee said. One could surmise that the economic sanctions do not affect the country's leadership much, he said.

The hinterlands responded to declining economic fortunes by relying more on trade with China near those border areas, Lee added. In fact, the sanctions generated more North Korean migration to China and reliance on Chinese merchants and goods. North Korea's border with China is relatively porous as opposed to its heavily militarized border with South Korea.

'Increasing inequality'

The upshot, Lee said, is that sanctions that fail to change the behavior of an autocratic regime may eventually increase urban-rural inequality.

"Sanctions will likely be inefficient as long as North Korea can maintain powerful centralized control and oppress any discontent that arises due to increasing inequality," he said.

Lee added that sanctions will most likely not deter North Korea's nuclear weapons activities. They have not done so yet, and at this point, North Korea's leaders view sanctions as inconveniences, but not regime-threatening. Plus, even the harshest sanctions would be unlikely to stem the flow of all goods, energy and money into North Korea. Not all countries would go along with draconian trade restrictions that hurt the poorest people the hardest, he said.

"Even if sanctions were imposed to full capacity, the marginalized population would suffer the most," said Lee, adding that he was actually surprised about his project's findings.

"One can always hypothesize a story but to actually find such effect in the data was quite exciting. Frankly, I pursued this project expecting that I wouldn't find any impact of sanctions on lights," he said.

Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

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The Korean Peninsula is pictured at night from the International Space Station in Jan. 2014. The dark area is North Korea in between well-lit China and South Korea. North Korea's capital city of Pyongyang appears like a small island, showing some light emission, otherwise surrounded by darkness.
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Co-sponsored by the Center for East Asian Studies

Why have Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand proven so recurrently vulnerable to political crises? In their new volume, Incomplete Democracy in the Asia-Pacific, Giovanna Dore, Jae Ku, and Karl Jackson cite the relative absence of participation between elections, the continued influence of traditional social structures, the incomplete emergence of civil society organizations, public opinions of democracy and authoritarian rule, and the persisting weaknesses of political parties. Their book shows how mass attitudes and behaviors enable continued elite control of these electoral democracies, and conclude that although there are substantial differences between them, the chronic problem of democracy in Asia has been the lack of mobilized public demand for good governance.

Karl D. Jackson directs Asian Studies at SAIS and heads its Southeast Asia Studies Program. He has served as the national security advisor to the US vice president, special assistant to the US president, senior director for Asia on the National Security Council, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia and the Pacific, and senior advisor to the president of the World Bank. He was a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley (1972–1991). His degrees are from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (PhD) and Princeton University (BA).

Giovanna Maria Dora Dore is a fellow in the Asian Studies Program at SAIS. For over a decade, as a political economist in the World Bank Group, she has focused on economic change and institutional development in Asia. She has a PhD in Political Economy and Southeast Asia Studies and an MA from SAIS and a Laurea Magistralis in Philosophy and Contemporary History from the Catholic University of Milan.

Jae H. Ku directs the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS. He has taught courses at SAIS, Brown University, and Yonsei University, and Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul. He has a PhD from SAIS, an MSc from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a BA from Harvard University.

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Giovanna Maria Dora Dore Fellow, Asian Studies Program, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
Jae H. Ku Director, US-Korea Institute, SAIS, JHU
Karl D. Jackson CV Starr Distinguished Professor, SAIS, JHU
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Following the end of World War II, Japan achieved remarkable economic growth, rising to be on par with the levels of the United States and Europe. With particular strength in manufacturing, Japan attracted much attention from around the world for its technological capabilities and ability to produce high quality products. Can Japan restore its glories such as those that garnered global attention in the 1980s? In 2006, Bill Emmott, a former editor of The Economist, published "Hi wa Mata Noboru (The Sun Also Rises)", which predicts that someday Japan will restore its competitiveness by increasing productivity through economic structural reforms.

However, so far, we do not see the clear picture of The Sun’s rising again. This talk is based on Motohashi’s new book, “Hi ha Mata Takaku (The Sun Rises Again)” from Nikkei, for explaining the way Japan should proceed to regain its industrial competitiveness. He has analyzed the shift of sources of industrial competitiveness, taking into account science revolutions (IT, life science etc.) and growing presence of emerging economies such as China and India, and explained new model of innovation lead growth by the concept of “science based economy”. His talk also touches on the subject of differences of economic institutions among nations, and proposes new model of Japanese innovation system in 21st century with the importance of labor market liberalization to proceed structural reforms to adjust new environment. Please refer to the following link for more detail description of the book. http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0391.html

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motohashi
Kazuyuki Motohashi joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the period of September 2014 to March 2015 as Sasakawa Peace Fellow, from the University of Tokyo where he serves as a professor at the Department of Technology Management for Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering. Until this year, he had taken various positions at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of the Japanese Government, economist at OECD and associate professor at Hitotsubashi University.

His research interest covers a broad range of issues in economic and statistical analysis of innovation, including economic impacts of information technology, international comparison of productivity, national innovation system focusing on science and industry linkages and SME innovation and entrepreneurship policy. He has published several papers and books on above issues, including Productivity in Asia: Economic Growth and Competitiveness (2007). At Shorenstein APARC, he conducts research project, “New Channles: Reinventing US-Japan Relationship”, particularly focusing on innovation in silicon valley and its linkage with Japanese innovation system.

Mr. Motohashi was awarded Master of Engineering from University of Tokyo, MBA from Cornell University and Ph.D. in business and commerce from Keio University.

Slides_The Sun Rises Again? Regaining INdustrial Competitiveness of Japan in Science Based Economy Era
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Philippines Conference Room

Encina Hall
616 Serra St., 3rd floor
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

 

Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research CenterEncina Hall E301616 Serra StreetStanford, CA 94305-6055
(650) 723-1434 (650) 723-6530
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kazuyuki_motohashi.jpg Ph.D.

Kazuyuki Motohashi joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the period of September 2014 to March 2015 as this year's Sasakawa Peace Fellow, from the the University of Tokyo, where he serves as a professor at the Department of Technology Management for Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering. Until this year, he had taken various positions at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of the Japanese Government, economist at OECD, and associate professor at Hitotsubashi University.

His research interest covers a broad range of issues in economic and statistical analysis of innovation, including economic impacts of information technology, international comparison of productivity, national innovation systems focusing on science and industry linkages, and SME innovation and entrepreneurship policy. He has published several papers and books on the above issues, including Productivity in Asia: Economic Growth and Competitiveness (2007). At Shorenstein APARC, he is conducting the research project, “New Channles: Reinventing US-Japan Relationship”, particularly focusing on innovation in Silicon Valley and its linkage with the Japanese innovation system.

Mr. Motohashi was awarded his Master of Engineering degree from the University of Tokyo, MBA from Cornell University, and Ph.D. in business and commerce from Keio University.

Sasakawa Peace Fellow, 2014-2015
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Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center,  and David Straub, associate director of the Korea Program, presented their new study "Tailored Engagement: Toward an Effective and Sustainable Inter-Korea Relations Policy" to a Washington, D.C. audience at the Brookings Institution on Sept. 29. The Voice of America wrote an article in Korean about the presentation, citing Shin saying, "Engagement is important and essential but it must be carefully tailored or fitted to changing political and security realities on and around the Peninsula." 

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