The fall of Bo Xilai is the most serious political crisis in China since Tiananmen in 1989. The leadership succession process was nearly derailed and a deep rift has opened up at the top of the Communist Party. While many critical details of this power struggle remain unknown, the effects of this incident are certain to be far-reaching. Many key questions have been raised, including: How will the fall of Bo affect the new leadership line-up and its policies? How will the rift affect the party's ability to maintain control over a society showing growing signs of defiance and tensions? What does the incident tell us about the systemic corruption at the core of the party's leadership? Professor Minxin Pei will address these and other issues during this timely seminar.

About the Speaker

Minxin Pei joined Claremont McKenna College in 2009. Prior to that he was a senior associate and the director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC.

Pei's research focuses on democratization in developing countries, economic reform and governance in China, and U.S.-China relations. He is the author of From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union (Harvard University Press, 1994) and China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Harvard University Press, 2006). Pei’s research has been published in Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, Modern China, China Quarterly, Journal of Democracy, and many edited books.

He is a frequent commentator for BBC World News, Voice of America, and National Public Radio; his op-eds have appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Newsweek International, the International Herald Tribune, and other major newspapers.

Pei received his PhD in political science from Harvard University. He was on the faculty at Princeton University from 1992 to 1998, and he has received numerous prestigious fellowships, including the National Fellowship at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the McNamara Fellowship at the World Bank, and the Olin Faculty Fellowship of the Olin Foundation.

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Maritime issues are increasingly at the heart of security issues between the United States and China. Historically, the Taiwan issue had dominated the relationship, but increasingly issues such as close in reconnaissance, the South China Sea, and different views on exclusive economic zone rights are shaping the security agenda. In each of these areas, the two sides are far apart. U.S. routine practices of air and sea-based reconnaissance well outside territorial waters is met with indignation by Chinese leaders. Chinese assertive policy regarding its claims of the Spratly islands has provoked several Southeast Asian nations and drawn U.S. diplomatic attentions to the region. Chinese claims on EEZ rights are outliers internationally, however the United States stands outside the key international treaty that governs such rights.

Overlaying these potentially conflicting national interests, both sides have engaged in military shifts. China has maintained double-digit growth in its military budget for nearly 20 years, with substantial attention to the naval realm. Chinese diesel submarines and advanced combat aircraft have brought the People’s Liberation Army to modern levels. New types of systems such as ballistic missile launching submarines and anti-ship ballistic missiles are changing the vary nature of China’s maritime capabilities. As the United States winds down two wars in the Middle East, its military remains attentive to these changes and includes doctrinal and force posture changes. New deployments in Singapore, Guam, and Australia supplement enhanced partnerships with the Philippines and Vietnam, and a reinvigoration of traditional alliances.

The interaction between potentially conflictual national interests and a dynamic military situation raises concerns about the future between the two giants astride the Pacific.

About the panelists

Admiral Gary Roughead is a 1973 graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy. Among his six operational commands, Admiral Roughead was the first officer to command both classes of Aegis ships, having commanded USS Barry (DDG 52) and USS Port Royal (CG 73). As a flag officer, he commanded Cruiser Destroyer Group 2, the George Washington Battle Group; and U.S. 2nd Fleet/NATO Striking Fleet Atlantic and Naval Forces North Fleet East. Ashore, he served as Commandant, United States Naval Academy, the Department of the Navy’s Chief of Legislative Affairs, and as Deputy Commander, U.S. Pacific Command. He is one of only two officers to have commanded the fleets in the Pacific and Atlantic, commanding the U.S. Pacific Fleet and Joint Task Force 519, as well as U.S. Fleet Forces Command, where he was responsible for ensuring Navy forces were trained, ready, equipped and prepared to operate around the world, where and when needed.

Roughead’s awards include the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, Navy Distinguished Service Medal, Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit, Meritorious Service Medal, Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal, and various unit and service awards.

Roughead became the 29th Chief of Naval Operations Sep. 29, 2007. He retired from active duty, Sept. 23, 2011.

Christopher P. Twomey is an associate professor of national security affairs (with tenure) at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, Calif. In 2004, he received his PhD in politcal science from MIT and joined the NPS faculty, later serving as associate chair for research and as director of the Center for Contemporary Conflict from 2007 to 2009. Today, he works closely with the Departments of Defense and State on a range of diplomatic engagements across Asia and regularly advises PACOM, STRATCOM, and the Office of Net Assessment. His book—The Military Lens: Doctrinal Differences and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations (Cornell, 2010)—explains how differing military doctrines complicate diplomatic signaling, interpretations of those signals, and assessments of the balance of power. He edited Perspectives on Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Issues (2008), and his work has appeared in journals such as Asian Survey, Security Studies, Arms Control Today, Contemporary Security Policy, Asia Policy, Current History, and Journal of Contemporary China. He has previously taught or researched at Harvard, Boston College, RAND, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and IGCC, and is currently a research fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. He has lived in China several times, speaks and reads Chinese, and regularly travels to Asia.

His research interests center on security studies, Chinese foreign policy, general nuclear strategy, strategic culture, statecraft, and East Asian security in theory and practice.

Additional information about his research and teaching can be found here.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Yasunori Kakemizu, "Strategy of CATV in the Competitive TV Market: Open vs. Closed Models"

After prospering for more than a half-century in the United States, the cable industry is taking on a new competitor, Over-The-Top providers (OTT). OTT providers are a product of the information technology revolution that emerged from the invention of Internet protocol of the late 20th century. In his research presentation, Kakemizu tries to answer the question: What is the strategy of the cable industry in the United States and what will happen to it in the near future? Kakemizu analyzes the current threat and opportunity facing cable television companies, focusing on the strategies against OTT, such as Netflix and Hulu.

 

Hideaki Koda, "Driving the Electric Vehicle Forward: Reshaping Car Sharing with EV and ICT"

Should the all-electric vehicle challenge the traditional car head-on in the mainstream market? The answer may be "no" if you look back on the history of disruptive innovations. An innovative technology at its dawn often succeeds first in a smaller, untapped market where its strengths shine and its weaknesses are shadowed (or even turned into strengths). It then enters the mainstream market over time by achieving more maturity, as typically shown in the computer market. Then where is the market for the electric vehicle? It might be car sharing, which is thought to be a potentially large market. Koda discusses how to combine electric vehicles and car sharing with information and communications technology (e.g. Big Data processing) to achieve a win-win solution for all by taking advantage of the unique characteristics of the electric vehicle.  

 

Haiming Li, "Competing Strategies for China's Large Commercial Banks"

Competing strategies are critical to China's large commercial banks, as they determine future direction of development for these banks. Research shows that following five strategies, namely a strategy for lead changes, a strategy for globalization, a strategy for diversification, a strategy for systematic risk management, as well as a strategy for establishing a decision-making support system, need to be adapted. Coordinated implementation of these strategies will enhance the competitiveness of China's large commercial banks both home and abroad.

 

Yoshimasa Waseda, "Nantotechnolgoy for Fuel Cells: The Impact and Analysis of the Status Using Patent Information"

Judging from the need to reduce increasing dangers of future global climate change, clean energy has become more important and is a key issue for future development. Fuel cells are a candidate for achieving clean energy in the future although they currently have some disadvantages. Many researchers study the application of nanotechnology for fuel cells to solve these disadvantages using the unique phenomena of nanomaterials. In this presentation, Waseda discusses the impact of nanotechnology for fuel cells and analyzes the status of each region using patent information.