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This paper seeks to understand the evolution of financial intermediation in the course of China's economic transition. The research is based on a unique data set collected by the authors and other collaborators from a 1998 survey of financial institutions, enterprises, and government officials in southern China. Based on an empirical investigation of rural financial reforms, we argue that China's two-decade long financial reform was a gradual process that accommodates reforms in other sectors and responds to changing policy goals and the economic and institutional environment in which financial institutions operate. Although using standard measures of financial system performance may cast doubt on the effectiveness of China's rural banking system, when one understands the different roles that it has been asked to play it can be argued that it has not operated so poorly. But, China's rural economic environment is still changing. If the system continues to change in the future, responding to pressures in the economy, further financial reforms will almost certainly emerge in the coming years.

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Scott Rozelle
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For the two regions hardest hit by the Asian tsunamis, international relief efforts are being complicated by more than the rising death tolls and physical devastation: They are also war zones. APARC's Donald K. Emmerson comments.

Washington -- For the two regions hit hardest by the Asian tsunami waves, international relief efforts are being complicated by more than the rising death tolls and physical devastation -- they are also war zones.

In the Indian Ocean nation of Sri Lanka and Indonesia's western Aceh province, bitter conflicts threaten to slow even further the painstaking work of locating victims, repairing infrastructure and caring for hundreds of thousands of refugees, according to relief workers and regional experts.

The Sri Lankan government and the rebel Tamil Tigers, which have fought a two-decade civil war, Tuesday traded barbs over the relief efforts and refused to work together -- and instead launched competing efforts.

Across the Indian Ocean, at the northern tip of Sumatra Island in Indonesia, the province of Aceh has been a no-go zone for most international aid organizations and journalists since May 2003, when a new government crackdown was launched in the 28-year struggle against the Free Aceh Movement.

Aid organizations scrambled to get into Aceh while former residents seeking to go back to find relatives complained Tuesday that the Indonesian government, which has been accused of widespread human rights violations in the area, continued to limit access, providing only two-week visas.

Academic analysts expressed hope that the tsunami tragedy might spur some badly needed progress in the two conflicts by creating opportunities for humanitarian cooperation. But at least in the short term, the warring factions were jockeying for advantage -- and in the process slowing rescue and relief efforts and putting more lives at risk.

"The contending sides, both in Sri Lanka and Aceh, are racing to provide relief," said Donald Emmerson, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Institute for International Studies and director of the Southeast Asian Forum.

"At stake is the legitimacy of the government on the one hand -- Colombo and Jakarta -- and the Tamil Tigers and the Free Aceh Movement on the other. If the response of the Sri Lankan and Indonesian governments is insufficient, there could be a crisis of legitimacy in those two areas, which have been engaged in civil war for some decades," he said.

In Sri Lanka, the minority Tamils, who are Hindu, have waged civil war against the country's majority Buddhists since 1983, and a 2002 cease-fire remains brittle. "Tens of thousands have died in an ethnic conflict that continues to fester" since the cease-fire, according to an unclassified report by the CIA.

The Tamil rebels control much of the country's north and east, including coastal areas severely damaged by the tsunami. The Tamil Tigers are conducting their own relief efforts and have made separate appeals to donor countries and the United Nations for assistance.

Even the immense scale of the tsunami damage did not appear to tamp down the deep-seated atmosphere of confrontation.

The Tamil Rehabilitation Organization said in a statement that "assistance channeled through the government of Sri Lanka has failed to reach the displaced in the northeast." It said that one-fourth of the people killed in the northeast were in Tamil-controlled areas.

A military spokesman, Brig. Daya Ratnayake, responded that the government was doing everything it can to help those affected in government-controlled areas and criticized the rebels for trying to score points amid the suffering.

In Aceh, where rebels are waging a fight for independence, there were some hopeful signs in the face of the horrific destruction. The Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement reportedly agreed to a cease-fire Tuesday to let aid efforts reach those in need.

However, aid officials worried that it would take days to get assistance to Aceh, where the majority of Indonesia's deaths occurred. And they said the conflict already has constrained aid efforts by limiting access to the region.

"International nongovernmental organizations have not been allowed into the conflict area since May 2003," said Michael Beer of the Washington-based Nonviolence International, whose field office in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh was lost, along with three of its four staff members. "This has hampered efforts already. The conflict has set back the international community, because they are starting from zero and have been excluded for political reasons."

"Even without the rebellion it is a tough area for the government to go in," said Blair King of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, a nonprofit in Washington. "That is exacerbated by the political situation."

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Regional financial cooperation in East Asia is proceeding with unprecedented intensity. Latest developments include creation by the regional central bankers group of two Asian bond funds and the launching of an Asian Bond Market Initiative by the finance ministers of ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, South Korea). Some observers continue to attribute such cooperation to sharpened antagonism between East Asia and the West since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. But this view overlooks a key internal driver: China's remarkable shift toward a more proactive stance toward regional cooperation. Current 2005 East Asian financial cooperation is motivated by factors that differ considerably from those observed in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and with implications that extend beyond East Asia.

Jennifer Amyx is a 2004-2005 Shorenstein Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Research Center. She is the author of Japan's Financial Crisis: Institutional Rigidity and Reluctant Change (2004), articles on East Asian financial cooperation, and a book-in-progress on the latter topic. Since earning a Stanford PhD in political science in 1998 she has held fellowships at Australian National University and been a visiting scholar at several Japanese financial policy and research institutions including the Bank of Japan.

Okimoto Conference Room

APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9072 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein Fellow, 2004-2005
PhD
Jennifer Amyx
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Reflecting on his career experience Harada will explore the cultural and systemic differences that shape the logic of confrontation and negotiation, in both domestic and international environments.

Akio Harada is a recently retired prosecutor general of Japan - Japan's counterpart to the U.S. attorney general. Prior to assuming his post as the prosecutor general, Mr. Harada served as Director General of the Criminal Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Justice, Vice-Minister of Justice and Chief Prosecutor at the Tokyo High Court. From 1975 to 1978, Mr Harada was first secretary and legal attache at the Japanese Embassy in Washington.

Special lecture hosted with the Center for East Asian Studies.

Philippines Conference Room

Akio Harada distinguished practitioner at the Center for East Asian Studies, and former prosecutor general, Japan Speaker
Seminars
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Bennett Freeman is a managing director in the Washington, DC office of Burson-Marsteller, where he leads the firm's Global Corporate Responsibility practice advising multinational corporations on issues ranging from human rights and labor practices to the environment and sustainable development. Prior to joining Burson-Marsteller in May 2003, Freeman advised companies, international institutions and NGOs on corporate responsibility and human rights as Principal of Sustainable Investment Strategies. In 2002, he co-authored an independent Human Rights Impact Assessment of the BP Tangguh project in Papua, Indonesia, the first such assessment undertaken in advance of a major energy project in the world.

Freeman served as a presidential appointee in three positions in the State Department across the full span of the Clinton Administration. As U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor from 1999 to early 2001, Freeman led the State Department's bilateral human rights diplomacy around the world under Assistant Secretary Harold Koh. In that capacity, he was the principal architect of the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, the first human rights standard forged by governments, companies and NGOs for the oil and mining industries. Previously he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs and chief speechwriter for Secretary of State Warren Christopher from early 1993 to early 1997.

A buffet lunch will be available to those who reserve with Debbie Warren dawarren@stanford.edu by Friday, November 12.

Oksenberg Conference Room

Bennett Freeman former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
Lectures
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Ambassador Charles L. Pritchard, an expert on U.S. relations with Japan and Korea, was a top aide to President Bush in the administration's negotiations with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO). He was also special assistant to the President and senior director for Asian affairs in the Clinton administration. Pritchard joined the Brookings Institution as a visiting fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies program on September 2, 2003. While at Brookings, Pritchard has published "North Korea Needs A Personal Touch", Los Angeles Times (09/10/03); "A Guarantee to Bring Kim into Line", Financial Times (10/10/03); "Freeze on North Korea Nuclear Program is Imperative", The Korea Herald (01/09/04); "What I Saw in North Korea", New York Times (01/21/04), "While the US Looked for Iraqi WMD North Korea Built Theirs", YaleGlobal(01/01/04), and "U.S. Should Confide in Allies on North Korean Nukes", Asahi Shimbun/International Herald Tribune (08/06-07/04).

Following a twenty-eight year career in the army, during which he held military assign-ments with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, as its country director for Japan, and as the U.S. Army Attaché in Tokyo, Pritchard joined the National Security Council in 1996.

Pritchard obtained his B.A. in Political Science from Mercer University in Georgia and his M.A. in International Studies from the University of Hawaii. He is the recipient of the Defense Distinguished Service Medal.

Philippines Conference Room

Charles L. Pritchard Visiting Fellow Speaker Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution
Lectures
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C. Kenneth Quinones has been involved with Northeast Asia since 1962 as a soldier, scholar and diplomat. He has lived and worked in South and North Korea; ten years in the South and nearly one year in the North, and in Japan for three years. As a U.S. dip-lomat, he witnessed South Koreas struggle to democratize during the 1980s and then, during the 1990s, played a role in the opening of North Korea to the outside world. After retiring from the U.S. Foreign Service in 1997, he worked with U.S. humanitarian organizations to arrange educational and agricultural exchanges between the United States and North Korea.

Dr. Quinones is the director of Korean Peninsula Programs at the recently organized International Action (successor to International Center), a non-profit Washington, D.C. research institute. He recently organized a new forum on the internet, the International Forum for Innovative Northeast Strategy, to encourage international dialogue about innovative strategies to promote a durable peace in Northeast Asia.

A buffet lunch will be available to those who RSVP by 5:00 p.m., Monday, November 1 to Debbie Warren at dawarren@stanford.edu or at 650-723-8387.

Philippines Conference Room

C. Kenneth Quinones Director Korean Peninsula Programs, International Action
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For much of the U.S.-ROK alliance's fifty-year history, it was considered one of the most successful political-military relationships forged out of the Cold War era. More recently, however, experts have expressed concerns about the durability of the alliance, given changing views in both Seoul and Washington on the nature of the threat posed by North Korea. The two allies' disparate approaches to DPRK policy became evident in the wake of the 2001 summit between the newly inaugurated President Bush and South Korean President Kim Dae Jung.

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Many similarities exist between America's alliances with Japan and South Korea. The United States provides a security guarantee to both countries, and maintains a military presence in each. Local ambivalence about these foreign troops has long been a staple of politics in both countries.

The two alliances are strategically connected. The United States would find it difficult to support its commitments to South Korea without access to bases in Japan. Japan would have trouble sustaining political support for US bases if it were America's only ally in the region. Trilateral security consultations among the United States, Japan, and South Korea enhance deterrence and generate diplomatic leverage with respect to North Korea.

The US-Japan and US-ROK alliances have yielded mutual benefits for over fifty years. Yet today, while US-Japan defense cooperation is flourishing, conflicting perceptions in Washington and Seoul of Kim Jong-il's North Korean regime--and how to deal with it--have generated deep concerns about the future of the US-ROK alliance. This has prompted officials on both sides to shift their attention from managing these defense partnerships to redefining their terms.

Armacost and Okimoto's provocative book examines this policy challenge. Substantial progress has been achieved in modernizing the US-Japan alliance. A shared US-ROK analysis of the North Korean challenge, and a common strategy for combating it, is now the urgent priority. Without it, the US-ROK alliance will not regain the relevance and promise that mark America's relationship with Japan. Given the stakes, Washington and Seoul must summon the political will to address current problems promptly and purposefully. Written by some of the most eminent scholars and practitioners in the field, the chapters in this timely volume offer thoughtful suggestions to help policymakers achieve this goal.

(This title is now out of print; four PDFs, arranged by section, may be downloaded at the links below.)

Introduction
Preface (Daniel I. Okimoto)
The Future of America’s Alliances in Northeast Asia (Michael H. Armacost)
America’s Asia Strategy during the Bush Administration (Kurt M. Campbell)  

Japan
The Japan-US Alliance in Evolution (Kuriyama Takakazu)
The Changing American Government Perspectives on the Missions and Strategic Focus of the US-Japan Alliance (Rust M. Deming)
Japanese Adjustments to the Security Alliance with the United States: Evolution of Policy on the Roles of the Self-Defense Force (Yamaguchi Noboru)
US-Japan Defense Cooperation: Can Japan Become the Great Britain of Asia?
Should It? (Ralph A. Cossa)
The Japan-US Alliance and Japanese Domestic Politics: Sources of Change, Prospects for the Future (Hiroshi Nakanishi)

Korea
Shaping Change and Cultivating Ideas in the US-ROK Alliance (Victor D. Cha)
The United States and South Korea: An Alliance Adrift (Donald P. Gregg)
Challenges for the ROK-US Alliance in the Twenty-First Century (Won-soo Kim)
US-ROK Defense Cooperation (William M. Drennan)
Changes in the Combined Operations Arrangement in Korea (Kim Jae-chang)
Domestic Politics and the Changing Contours of the ROK-US Alliance: The End of the Status Quo (Lee Chung-min)

China
US-China Relations and America’s Pacific Alliances in the Post–-9/11 Era (David M. Lampton)
China and America’s Northeast Asian Alliances: Approaches, Politics, and Dilemmas (Jing Huang)
Contributors 

 

 

 

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Books
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Michael H. Armacost
Daniel I. Okimoto
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Shorenstein APARC
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