Seasoned journalist analyzes US-China relations under Trump
Scholars at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies assess the strategic situation in East Asia to be unsettled, unstable, and drifting in ways unfavorable for American interests. These developments are worrisome to countries in the region, most of which want the United States to reduce uncertainty about American intentions by taking early and effective steps to clarify and solidify U.S. engagement. In the absence of such steps, they will seek to reduce uncertainty and protect their own interests in ways that reduce U.S. influence and ability to shape regional institutions. This 23-page report entitled “President Trump’s Asia Inbox” suggests specific steps to achieve American economic and security interests.
If you want to understand the trade and industrial policy that President Donald Trump is now going to pursue, simply jump into a DeLorean time machine with Marty McFly and go back to 1985. As the title of that iconic film, released that year, proclaimed – it is Back to the Future, Sneider writes.
Anja Jetschke joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from January through March from the University of Göttingen’s department of political science, where she is a professor of international relations.
Her research interests focus on the design and effects of international institutions, with a particular focus on regional organizations in Asia. Her Comparative Regional Organizations Project (CROP) currently develops the world’s largest database on regional organizations with the aim of evaluating the explanatory power of a neglected determinant of institutional design: the diffusion of institutional designs among regional organizations. While at Shorenstein APARC, Anja Jetschke will also work on the effects of refugee flows on regional human rights commitment in Southeast Asia.
Anja Jetschke is currently the Vice-President of the German Political Science Association. From 2012-2015 she headed a research program on international governance at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (Hamburg) and was an assistant professor at the University of Freiburg. She also held research fellowships at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Ohio State University and the University of Berlin. Her publications include many articles and chapters on comparative regionalism, ASEAN, and the AICHR, and a prize-winning book, Human Rights and State Security: Indonesia and the Philippines (2011). Her doctorate is from the European University (Florence).
David Timberman is a political analyst and development practitioner with 30 years of experience analyzing and addressing political and governance challenges, principally in Southeast and South Asia. Recently he was a Visiting Professor of Political Science at De La Salle University in Manila, where he taught courses on Southeast Asian politics and policy reform in the Philippines. As a Technical Director at MSI he has conducted or managed multiple assessments, studies and evaluations intended to inform US government development strategies and programs. As a senior democracy and governance (DG) advisor in USAID’s Asia Near East Bureau he advised USAID Missions on the development of their DG and conflict strategies and programs. As a senior DG advisor to USAID Indonesia he was deeply involved in the design and implementation of elections, civil society, parliamentary strengthening and anti-corruption programs. Through his positions with the National Democratic Institute and the Asia Foundation he worked closely with political parties and NGOs across Asia. He has lived and worked in the Philippines, Indonesia and Singapore, including experiencing first-hand the democratic transitions in the Philippines (1986-1988) and Indonesia (1998-2001). He has written extensively on political and governance issues in the Philippines and has edited or co-edited multi-author volumes on the Philippines, Cambodia and economic policy reform in Southeast Asia. He holds a MA in International Affairs from Columbia University and a BA in political science (with honors) and history from Tufts University.
p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'; min-height: 15.0px} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 11.0px 'Times New Roman'} span.s1 {font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'}Trade has been a key instrument behind China’s rapid economic growth. Taking advantage of rapidly increasing global and regional production networks, China has become the major trading partner of virtually every other country within East Asia. Equally important, China’s trade strategy has married China’s combination of high savings levels plus low cost exports with America’s low savings rates and high consumption levels. As well, China has been a major funder of U.S. debt levels. To date the result has been a win-win for both countries. The election of Donald Trump threatens to upend China’s trade strategy, most fundamentally by branding China a currency manipulator and by threatening to impose massive tariffs on U.S. imports from China. Trump has also pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) despite six years of complex negotiations and in defiance of the wishes of its other eleven member states. All are convinced of the importance of TPP as a bridge linking the Asia-Pacific and as a counterbalance to Chinese economic influence in East Asia. Professor Pempel will examine these complex interrelations with particular attention to the broad role hitherto played by economic cooperation in reducing security tensions within East Asia and across the Asia-Pacific.
T.J. Pempel (Ph.D., Columbia) is Jack M. Forcey Professor of Political Science in U.C. Berkeley's Department of Political Science which he joined in July 2001. Just prior to coming to Berkeley, he was at the University of Washington in Seattle where he was the Boeing Professor of International Studies in the Jackson School of International Studies and an adjunct professor in Political Science. Professor Pempel's research and teaching focus on comparative politics, political economy, contemporary Japan, and Asian regional ties. His recent books include Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region; Regime Shift: Comparative Dynamics of the Japanese Political Economy (both by Cornell University Press); Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia and The Economic-Security Nexus in Northeast Asia (both by Routledge). In 2015, he co-edited a book entitled Two Crises; Different Outcomes (Cornell University Press) which analyzes the negative Asian experience in the 1997-98 crisis and the positive outcome in 2008-09. In addition, he has published over one hundred twenty scholarly articles and chapters in books. Professor Pempel is on the editorial boards of a dozen professional journals, and serves on various committees of the American Political Science Association, the Association for Asian Studies, and the International Studies Association Council. He is a presidentially-appointed Commissioner on the Japan-U.S. Friendship Commission and is active in the Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue. His current research involves Asian adjustments to the rise in global finance and the decline in security bipolarity.
This event is co-sponsored by the Shorenstein APARC's China Program and The Forum for American/Chinese Exchange at Stanford (FACES).
This event is part of the winter colloquia series entitled "China: Going Global" sponsored by Shorenstein APARC's China Program.
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Beijing’s new Silk Road initiative links old trade corridors from Asia to Africa and Europe. Many perceive that President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative as well as China’s many other trade, investment and finance projects transcend their economic calculus and reflect Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions to reposition China’s standing on the global stage. The China Program brings leading experts to explore the drivers and motivators of China’s international initiatives, their reach and scope as well as the implications of China’s increasing activism on the world stage.
Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin and Rennie J. Moon compare the political protests in South Korea of today to that of 1987 in an editorial for the Diplomat. The recent demonstrations are an illustration of “a distinctive Korean political culture that prioritizes elements of virtue, shame and saving face,” they wrote.
Shin, who is the Korea Program director at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, and Moon were both in Seoul on Nov. 12 and were observers of the crowd of one million people who gathered to protest South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s administration. He also spoke to the Economist earlier about the likelihood of the president’s resignation or impeachment.
Read the Diplomat editorial here and the Economist article here.
Shin and Moon have since co-authored a paper on the topic in volume 57 of Asian Survey, titled "South Korea in 2016: Political Leadership in Crisis," which can be viewed here.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has apparently decided to hold an urgent meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in New York, on his way to the Asia Pacific Economic summit in Peru. It is far from clear what the Prime Minister hopes to accomplish, or whether such a meeting will even be a good idea, so early in the transition process. But one thing is surely true – the Prime Minister needs to go into that meeting with a clear understanding of what has happened in the U.S. and what it could mean for U.S.-Japan relations, Sneider writes.