During the Cold War, China was regarded in many corners of Southeast Asia as a sponsor of subversion and communist insurgency. Until the “four modernizations,” its anemic economy and limited ability to project power offered little incentive for Southeast Asian governments to cozy up to Beijing. Relations were often frosty or worse. Clearly, times have changed. Essentially all of the states in Southeast Asia have robust diplomatic and economic engagements with the PRC. Yet security concerns have not evaporated. Most Southeast Asian governments now embrace China, but “hedge” by setting up fall-back security options with the United States and other partners in case the PRC becomes more menacing.

This seminar will explore some of the nuances in Southeast Asian “hedging” strategies. How do various governments view China’s intentions and capabilities? How have they variously sought to engage the United States and others to gain and retain security without antagonizing Beijing? How do these strategies relate to multilateral diplomacy in ASEAN and related forums, and how do they affect the overall “balance of power” in the Asia-Pacific region? Lastly, what pitfalls might hedging entail? These questions are critical, because the reaction of Southeast Asian states to China’s rise will have a major effect on the shape and stability of regional security for years to come.

John D. Ciorciari is a 2007-08 Shorenstein Fellow and is currently completing a manuscript entitled Hedging: Southeast Asian Alignments with the Great Powers since the Fall of Saigon.  He has extensive work experience in Southeast Asia, both as an academic and as a U.S. government official.  He also served as a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore in 2003-04.  He holds a JD from Harvard Law School and DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Conventional wisdom says that relations between China and Japan are fated always to be exceptionally wary, if not openly hostile -- and Japanese leaders' visits to the notorious Yasukuni have done nothing to undermine this view. Nor have Sino-Japanese standoffs over the disputed Senkaku islands. Meanwhile Beijing's opposition has been widely credited as the reason why Japan has failed in its reported aspiration to join the United Nations Security Council. Author and long-time Tokyo-based East Asia watcher Eamonn Fingleton argues that these issues have been grossly misunderstood in the West and that on closer inspection they say little if anything about the true state of Sino-Japanese relations. He insists that on a host of substantive issues overlooked by the press, Japan and China have been cooperating closely for decades. So much so that Japanese help has been one of the most powerful factors in China's rise.

A former editor for Forbes and the Financial Times, Eamonn Fingleton has been monitoring East Asian economics since 1985. He met China's supreme leader Deng Xiaoping in 1986 as a member of a New York Stock Exchange delegation. The following year he predicted the Tokyo banking crash and went on in Blindside, a controversial 1995 analysis that was praised by J.K. Galbraith and Bill Clinton, to show that a heedless America was fast losing its formerly vaunted leadership in advanced manufacturing to Japan.

His 1999 book In Praise of Hard Industries: Why Manufacturing, Not the Information Economy, Is the Key to Future Prosperity anticipated the American Internet stock crash of 2000. In his 2008 book In the Jaws of the Dragon: America's Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony, he issues a strong challenge to the conventional view among Washington policymakers and think tank analysts that China is converging to Western economic and political forms and attitudes. His books have been read into the U.S. Senate record and named among the ten best business books of the year by Business Week and Amazon.com.

He was born in Ireland in 1948 and is a graduate of Trinity College Dublin. He was the recipient of the American Values Award from the United States Business and Industry Council in 2001.

Copies of Fingleton's newest book In the Jaws of the Dragon: America's Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony - due March 4 by St. Martin's Press - will be for sale during the event.

Some observers of Japan have pointed to a dangerous rise in Japanese nationalism. Advocates of that idea claim that this is evident in a number of events, such as, the visits of former Prime Minister Koizumi to the Yasukuni Shrine; former Prime Minister Abe's plan for constitutional reforms and his statements regarding the comfort women; the adoption of "revisionist" history textbooks; the territorial disputes with countries such as China and South Korea; and Japan's efforts to strengthen the Japan-U.S. security arrangements.

However, such observations invite the following questions:

• If there are such signs in Japan, do they reflect Japanese society as a whole? Japan has been strongly pacifistic since the war, avoiding any entanglement in military conflict. This seems to be deeply rooted in the minds of the Japanese people. Just what is the relationship between the purported rise in nationalism and these pacifistic tendencies?
• Most commentators who warn of rising nationalism in Japan fear a return of the extreme nationalism of prewar Japan. However, are not today's political regime, economic institutions and social conditions, all vastly different from those of prewar Japan?
• Even though a trend toward nationalism can be witnessed in some quarters of Japan, it doesn't necessarily mean that Japan has become a country that would take dangerous actions. Nationalistic emotions and movements are not directly linked to the actions of a country. Rather, are there not some intervening factors between them?

Mitsuru Kitano currently serves as minister for public affairs at the Embassy of Japan to the United States in Washington, D.C. where he is in charge of outreach to press/media, intellectual exchanges, art and cultural exchanges as well as support for Japanese language education. Kitano has written a number of op-ed articles, including ones analyzing U.S. opinions about Japan in such papers as the Washington Post, the Washington Times, and the International Herald Tribune.

Minister Kitano is a career diplomat and has been posted in Tokyo, France, Geneva, China and Vietnam since joining Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1980. He has been professionally engaged in Japan's bilateral relationship with the U.S., China and Southeast Asian countries, and Japan's policies regarding the United Nations and other international organizations. He was active also in such areas as economic cooperation and nuclear energy issues.

His academic achievements include being a lecturer at Sophia University (Tokyo) and a senior visiting fellow at RIETI (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) in Japan. In 2007, he co-authored a book, Paburikku Dipuromashi: Seron no Jidai no Gaiko Senryaku (Public Diplomacy: Diplomatic Strategy in the Age of Public Opinion) (Tokyo: PHP Kenkyujo).

Minister Kitano received a B.A. from the University of Tokyo in 1980 and a M.A. in international relations from the University of Geneva in 1996.

What issues await Japanese politicians and diplomats in 2008? At home, Japan's new Liberal Democratic Party Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda must rebuild confidence in his party while working with an upper house controlled by the opposing Democratic Party of Japan. Abroad, Japanese politicians and diplomats grapple with Japan's role in the U.S.-led "War on Terror," a nuclear North Korea, and sovereignty disputes with South Korea and China. Our two panelists will share their views on Japanese political, diplomatic and security challenges in the year ahead.

Andrew Oros is an assistant professor of political science and international studies at Washington College. Selected as one of five "emerging leaders" in US-Japan relations by the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2007, Oros specializes in international and comparative politics of East Asia. His work has appeared in Japan Forum, Intelligence and National Security, and the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, among others. His forthcoming book, Normalizing Japan: Politics, Identity, and the Evolution of Security Practice, will be released in May 2008.

Yuki Tatsumi is research fellow of the East Asia Program at the Henry L. Stimson Center. Prior to her current position, she worked as a research associate at the CSIS, as well as, at the Henry L. Stimson Center. Her analyses on Japanese security policy, Japanese defense policy, US-Japan alliance, and Japanese domestic politics frequently appear in the PacNet Newsletter. In September 2006, Tatsumi testified before the House Committee on International Relations regarding Japan's relationship with its Asian neighbors.

Robert Weiner is an assistant professor of political science at the Naval Postgraduate School (Monterey, CA). His research and teaching focus on Japanese and East Asian politics, political parties and elections, democratic institutions, and research methods. He earned his Ph.D. in political science at the University of California at Berkeley. Weiner spent the 2006-2007 academic year at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center as a Shorenstein Fellow. He was an assistant professor in the Government Department of Cornell University for three years before joining NPS in 2007.

Please visit www.usajapan.org or call 415-986-4383 for reservation.
2008 Year Ahead is made possible by the generous support of Union Bank of California
 

Where is Japanese society and culture headed in the New Year? What social trends may shape Japan's future? From the latest pop culture developments to the changing Japanese attitude toward women and families, our panelists will provide an up-to-date view of Japanese society today and beyond.

Mariko Fujiwara is research director of Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living (HILL). She is also a partner in the consultancy Business Futures Network (London), executive director of Mobile Marketing Inc., and serves on ministerial councils including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Finance, and the Supreme Court. She has published reports on Japanese consumers, Japan's post-war baby boom generation, second baby boom generation, changing roles of women and families, Japan's aging population and emerging trends among senior citizens.

Roland Kelts is the author of Japanamerica: How Japanese Pop Culture Has Invaded the U.S., published in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. He is a lecturer at the University of Tokyo, a columnist for The Daily Yomiyuri and an editor of the New York-based literary journal, A Public Space. His first novel, Access, will be published next year. His articles, essays, and stories have been published in Zoetrope; Playboy; Salon; DoubleTake; The Village Voice; Newsday; Cosmopolitan; Vogue; The Japan Times; among others.

Please visit events at www.usajapan.org or call 415-986-4383 for reservation.
2008 Year Ahead is made possible by the generous support of Union Bank of California

Up-and-coming Stanford entrepreneurs must think and act globally. Critical resources, markets and opportunities are around the world. Come meet three global entrepreneurs and hear how they got started, challenges they are wrestling with right now, and their best advice on going global.

SPRIE Co-Director Dr. William F. Miller will moderate a panel discussion featuring William A. Chen, Dr. Robert P. Lee, and Gadi Maier.

After the panel discussion there will be a question and answer period, followed by Chinese appetizers and networking.

This event, co-sponsored by the Asia-Pacific Student Entrepreneurship Society (ASES), is open to students, the Stanford community and the general public and is part of Entrepreneurship Week at Stanford University.

You can see the entire Entrepreneurship Week agenda at eweek.stanford.edu, including information about the Innovation Tournament for student teams.

About the panelists
William Chen: A General Partner with DT Capital Partners, Chen has been involved in technology companies and startups in Silicon Valley and China, most recently as Founder and CEO of Accelergy Corporation, a R&D technology company with operations in the US and Shanghai. Prior to Accelergy, Chen was Founder and CEO of OnePage, Inc., an enterprise software company that developed a suite of portal products and management tools for the corporate market (acquired by Sybase, Inc.). Before starting OnePage, he was one of the Founders of Billpoint, Inc., which pioneered the concept of online person to person payments. Chen has a BS from the University of Florida and a MBA from Harvard Business School.

Dr. Robert P. Lee: Lee, a 30-year veteran of the computer industry, is Chairman and CEO of Achievo Corporation, which he co-founded in 2002 while he served as president and CEO of Accela, Inc., a leading government automation software company. He was president and CEO of Inxight Software, Inc. before joining Achievo. Prior to that, he was Chairman, President and CEO of Insignia Solutions plc, a software company he took public in 1995. Dr. Lee has served as Executive VP at Symantec Corporation, and was Senior VP at Shared Medical Systems Corporation (now merged with Siemens). He received a BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and MS and PhD from the University of California, Los Angeles, all in computer science.

Gadi Maier: Most recently, Maier was CEO and President of Israel-based FraudSciences Corporation, (recently purchased by eBay), and prior to that he spent a year as Venture Partner at Pinnacle Ventures and Benchmark Capital. He was a co-founder and CEO of Scalent Systems (advanced datacenter virtualization software) and he co-founded Currenex, (a marketplace for buyers and sellers of foreign currency, sold to State Street Bank). Preceding Currenex, Maier was CEO, President and Chairman of GetThere, (on-line travel technology to corporations and airlines), leading GetThere's IPO as well as its sale in 2000 to Sabre Corporation. He has served as CEO for Memco Software, Inc., VP & General Manager for Cisco Systems' Internet Business Unit and held senior-level management positions at Oracle. Gadi holds a BS and MBA from the University of California, Berkeley.