International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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In our report, our overall goal is to understand how soybean trade policy changes and changes in soybean trade flows that China has experienced between 1997 and 2003 have affected China's producers, consumers and users of soybeans. To do so, we will:

1. briefly analyze the nature of China's soybean markets; and understand the nature of the links between soybean trade, domestic market development, price, production, and consumption;

2. analyze the responses of households that are affected by soybean trade-related changes;

3. predict the magnitude and direction of responses to trade liberlalization-induced price shifts and suggest if policies are needed to offset adverse effects

In order to meet these objectives, we will describe in great detail using a number of data sets: the nature of soybean markets in China; the linkages between soybean producers, consumers and poverty; use our CAPSIM model to understand the impacts of trade changes on soybean producers, livestock producers and consumers; and finally discuss policy options.

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Policy Briefs
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Scott Rozelle
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Complementarity between incentive instruments is regarded as one of the central themes of theoretical research in the economics of industrial organization in recent years. However, despite its importance, empirical evidence on the existence of complementarities is limited. In this paper we identify complementarities between incentive mechanisms used by firm-owners to motivate managers. Using a multi-task principal-agent framework we consider a problem in which the owner uses two incentive instruments, profit-sharing and investment-bonding, to motivate the manager in two tasks, production and asset-maintenance. Our theoretical model yields testable hypothesis regarding the complementary and individual effects of incentives on performance. We test the hypothesis of our theoretical model against a dataset on 56 rural firms in China, observed in 1988 and 1995. Our descriptive results clearly show that the two instruments are complements. Our econometric model using a panel regression framework confirms that significant complementaries exist in terms of the impact of the two instruments on performance. In order to evaluate the robustness of our results we account for unobserved differences in firm quality using fixed effects and instrumental variables regressions. Support for the complementarity hypothesis is also found after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity.

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Working Papers
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Scott Rozelle
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The PC business is one of the most aggressive in the world, with operating efficiency a critical factor for success. At the time of the HP/Compaq merger in 2000, both PC businesses were losing money. Now, seven years later, HP has reported a record first quarter for PCs, generating $8.7B in revenue, a 17% year over year growth and delivering 4.7% in operating profit, representing 0.8pt improvement year over year. So, what operating model has HP used to accomplish this turnaround and be ranked #1 in the world today? How are resource deployment decisions made? What are the key supply chain considerations? How does the company manage P&L and balance sheet tensions? How will HP continue to stay ahead?

As Vice President and General Manager for HP's Consumer Desktop PC Business Unit, Richard Walker is responsible for a global business that provides desktop PCs and digital entertainment centers to consumer markets. Immediately prior to his current assignment, Richard was Vice President of Emerging Markets, responsible for developing long term strategic growth plans for HP's targeted list of emerging countries, with an initial focus on Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). Richard received his bachelor's degree in business from Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, England. He also serves on the advisory boards for R&D Logic, a San Mateo based life sciences company; Pacific Peninsula Group, a Menlo Park property development company, and SPRIE at Stanford University.

Philippines Conference Room

Richard Walker Vice-President & General Manager, Consumer Desktop PCs Speaker Hewlett-Packard
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How has Iran become the most serious foreign policy issue in Indonesian politics? Since democracy was restored to Indonesia in 1999, governments there have had to balance public demands for a strong, independent foreign policy against the reality that the economic and political crises of the past decade have limited Jakarta's influence in global politics. Earlier in this period, presidents and foreign ministers faced little more than sporadic challenges over issues that stood little chance of affecting Indonesian foreign policy beyond Southeast Asia. More recently, however, Iran has actively courted Indonesian legislative and civil society leaders, and they, in turn, have pressed their government to oppose international efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear programs. They sharply criticized the Yudhoyono government for failing to oppose a motion in the International Atomic Energy Agency to refer Iran to the UN Security Council in 2006. This year they triggered a heated debate by opposing the government's decision to join a unanimous Security Council vote that broadened sanctions on Iran. Prof. Malley will examine these trends and assess their implications for Indonesian foreign policy and international security.

Michael Malley teaches comparative and Southeast Asian politics at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. Before joining the School in 2004, he taught at Ohio University. He earned a PhD in political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an MA in Asian Studies at Cornell University, and a BS at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's fifth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Michael Malley Assistant Professor, Department of National Security Affairs Speaker Naval Postgraduate School
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This is a CDDRL's Special Seminar, co-sponsored with Shorenstein APARC.

Dr. Fu-Kuo Liu is currently a Visiting Fellow at Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Foreign Policy Studies, Brookings Institution and is an Associate Research Fellow and Adjunct Associate Professor at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations. Additionally, he serves as the Executive Director of the National Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) Taiwan.

Previously, Dr. Liu was Chairman of the Research and Planning Board at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2002-2004) and a Consultative Advisor for the Mainland Affairs Council (2004-2006). He has taught at the Chinese Culture University and National Chung Shing University. He was a Visiting Fellow at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo and Georgetown University. His research mainly covers Taiwan security and foreign policy, regional security, and the cross-strait development. He received a Ph.D. in Politics from the University of Hull in the United Kingdom in 1995.

Philippines Conference Room

Fu-kuo Liu Visiting Fellow, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Foreign Policy Studies Speaker The Brookings Institution
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Taking advantage of a wide-open border, traders are shipping everything from rice and oranges to porn flicks and South Korean soap operas into North Korea from China. This trade - and the human traffic back and forth - is transforming economic life in the North, changing mindsets and eroding support for the Dear Leader and his Spartan "Juche" philosophy. So what does this mean for the "sanctions vs regime change" debate?

Donald Macintyre is a 2006-2007 Pantech fellow at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University. He is writing a book on how life in North Korea is changing at the grassroots level and what these changes mean for the international community's approach to Pyongyang. Macintyre was Time magazine's Seoul bureau chief from 2001-2006, covering politics, economics and culture in North and South Korea. He has traveled to North Korea six times and made numerous trips to China's border with the North to interview defectors, refugees and traders. He has also worked as a journalist in Tokyo and Rome and served as a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group's Northeast Asia office on North Korean issues.

Philippines Conference Room

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 736-0685 (650) 723-6530
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Pantech Fellow
MacIntyre.jpg MA

Donald Macintyre is a 2006-2007 Pantech Fellow at Shorenstein APARC. He is researching and writing a book on how life in North Korea is changing at the grassroots level and what these changes mean for the international community's approach toward Pyongyang. He is also organizing a conference on the impact of the U.S. and South Korean media on U.S.-ROK relations.

Macintyre was Time Magazine's Seoul bureau chief from 2001-2006, covering general news, politics and culture in North and South Korea. He has traveled to North Korea six times and made numerous trips to China's border with North Korea to interview defectors, refugees and traders.

Before setting up Time Magazine's first permanent bureau in Seoul in 2001, Macintyre was a correspondent and Internet columnist for Time in Tokyo. Previously, he worked for Bloomberg Financial News as a reporter, editor and feature writer. He has also reported from Italy for Vatican Radio and Canada's CBC Radio.

The New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants awarded Macintyre its Excellence in Financial Journalism Award in 1996. He received an Honorable Mention from the Overseas Correspondents Club in the category of best newspaper reporting from abroad the same year.

Donald Macintyre Pantech Fellow Speaker Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
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"As goes India, so goes the world," declared Mira Kamdar, Asia Society fellow and author of Planet India.

On Tuesday, April 24, Mira Kamdar will address the Stanford community at a seminar hosted by Shorenstein APARC and the Pacific Council. Ms. Kamdar will speak on the global rise of India from a developing nation to a major player on the international stage. She will discuss the country's economic and democratic growth and the consequences India's transformation has for the rest of the world.

Ms. Kamdar, who frames an optimistic yet realistic future for India, was a principal contributor to the Pacific Council's India-U.S. task force report released in June of 2005 titled, A Vision for the Future (pdf). The report explores the impact of technological and cultural globalization on promoting the emerging partnership between the U.S. and India. Shorenstein APARC's Daniel Sneider and Rafiq Dossani were also on the task force with Ms. Kamdar.

Publicity co-sponsor: The Global Management Program at Stanford's Graduate School of Business.

Philippines Conference Room

Daniel C. Sneider Moderator
Mira Kamdar Senior Fellow, World Policy Institute, Associate Fellow, Asia Society, and author Speaker
Seminars
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The success of the 6-party negotiations has changed the dynamic of the situation in the Korean peninsula. How do we assess the status of the talks? What are the prospects for U.S.-DPRK relations? And what is the trend in inter-Korean relations?

The ROK-US alliance is undergoing rapid change, symbolized by the decision to change the combined command structure in 2012 and the redeployment of U.S. troops. Both countries are heading toward important president elections and coping with strategic challenges in the world. How should we think about the role of the alliance as we look toward the future?

What are the long-term trends in Northeast Asia? How will the rise of China as an economic power and the economic recovery of Japan impact the region? What is the role of Korea in the strategic architecture of Northeast Asia? How does the region fit into U.S. strategic priorities?

In this second forum, current developments in North Korea, the future of the alliance, and strategic vision for Northeast Asia will be discussed.

Bechtel Conference Center

Workshops

In conjunction with Dr. Gi-Wook Shin's study of American and South Korean media coverage of the alliance and the peninsula, this conference will convene influential American journalists who covered momentous events and significant trends in the two Koreas. The macro-level, data-driven media study reveals how U.S. coverage of Korean issues has evolved over time as well as how perception gaps have grown up in the U.S.-ROK alliance. But how did American reporters and editors decide what to cover? What drove U.S. interest in Korea? And what were the challenges in covering Korea, both South and North? This conference will showcase the views of journalists on the front line who made key decisions about what to cover and why. These coverage decisions and the stories that followed shaped how Americans conceptualize both Koreas, the U.S.-ROK alliance, and the North Korean nuclear crises.

This one-day workshop will feature four panels: (1) democracy, anti-Americanism and the rise of Korean nationalism, (2) the challenges of covering North Korea, (3) the two North Korean nuclear crises, and (4) public diplomacy and the Korean peninsula.

Philippines Conference Room

Karl Schoenberger Former foreign correspondent Panelist Los Angeles Times
Doug Struck Reporter Speaker Washington Post
Brian Myers Reporter Speaker Atlantic Monthly
Anna Fifield ReporterReporter Speaker Financial TimesFinancial Times
David Sanger ReporterReporter Speaker New York TimesNew York Times
Barbara Slavin Reporter Speaker USA Today
Balbina Hwang Senior Special Advisor Speaker Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. State Department
David Straub Former Director of Korean Affairs Panelist U.S. State Department
Daniel C. Sneider Associate Director for Research Panelist Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 736-0685 (650) 723-6530
0
Pantech Fellow
MacIntyre.jpg MA

Donald Macintyre is a 2006-2007 Pantech Fellow at Shorenstein APARC. He is researching and writing a book on how life in North Korea is changing at the grassroots level and what these changes mean for the international community's approach toward Pyongyang. He is also organizing a conference on the impact of the U.S. and South Korean media on U.S.-ROK relations.

Macintyre was Time Magazine's Seoul bureau chief from 2001-2006, covering general news, politics and culture in North and South Korea. He has traveled to North Korea six times and made numerous trips to China's border with North Korea to interview defectors, refugees and traders.

Before setting up Time Magazine's first permanent bureau in Seoul in 2001, Macintyre was a correspondent and Internet columnist for Time in Tokyo. Previously, he worked for Bloomberg Financial News as a reporter, editor and feature writer. He has also reported from Italy for Vatican Radio and Canada's CBC Radio.

The New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants awarded Macintyre its Excellence in Financial Journalism Award in 1996. He received an Honorable Mention from the Overseas Correspondents Club in the category of best newspaper reporting from abroad the same year.

Donald Macintyre Pantech Fellow Panelist Shorenstein APARC at Stanford University, Time Magazine
Chris Nelson Editor Panelist The Nelson Report
Caroline Gluck Reporter Panelist BBC Taiwan
Martin Fackler Reporter Panelist New York Times, Tokyo
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