NOTE: Seminar room changed to Oksenberg Conference Room
Encina Hall, 3rd floor
This is an APARC-CISAC joint event.
With all eyes on the upcoming Inter-Korean Summit and the planned Kim-Trump Summit, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of how the North’s nuclear program evolved and the effects of diplomacy and other governmental actions had on its development.
About the speakers:
Image
Siegfried S. Hecker is a professor emeritus (research) in the Department of Management Science and Engineering and a senior fellow emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). He was co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) from 2007-2012. From 1986 to 1997, he served as the fifth Director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Hecker is an internationally recognized expert in plutonium science, global threat reduction, and nuclear security.
Hecker’s current research interests include plutonium science, nuclear weapons policy, nuclear security, and the safe and secure expansion of nuclear energy. Over the past 25 years, he has fostered cooperation with the Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard the vast stockpile of ex-Soviet fissile materials.
Hecker’s research projects at CISAC focus on reducing the risks of nuclear terrorism worldwide and the challenges of nuclear India, North Korea, Pakistan, and the nuclear aspirations of Iran. In June 2016, the Los Alamos Historical Society published two volumes edited by Dr. Hecker. The works, titled Doomed to Cooperate, document the history of Russian-U.S. laboratory-to-laboratory cooperation since 1992.
Image
Robert L. Carlin is a Visiting Scholar at CISAC with a forty-plus year history of working on North Korea issues. From both in and out of government, he has been following North Korea since 1974 and has made numerous trips there.
Carlin served as senior policy advisor at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) from 2002-2006, leading numerous delegations to the North for talks and observing developments in-country during the long trips that entailed.
From 1989-2002, Carlin was chief of the Northeast Asia Division in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State. During much of that period, he also served as Senior Policy Advisor to the Special Ambassador for talks with North Korea, and took part in all phases of US-DPRK negotiations from 1992-2000. From 1971-1989, Carlin was an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, where he received the Exceptional Analyst Award from the Director of Central Intelligence.
Siegfried S. Hecker
<i>Senior Fellow Emeritus, FSI, Stanford University</i>
Robert L. Carlin
<i>Visiting Scholar, CISAC, FSI, Stanford University</i>
The aim of this year's workshop is to assess the current situation surrounding North Korea, and to examine all possible options for dealing with North Korea, from military intervention, containment, or sanctions to diplomatic engagement.
Over the past year North Korean nuclear technology and delivery capabilities have advanced exponentially, until they are now believed to be within striking range of anywhere in the United States. The US administration has sought to counter this threat with a policy of maximum pressure combined with engagement—both options attracting fierce misgivings across the political spectrum. How did we get here? And what is the best way to reduce tension and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons?
Ambassador Joseph Yun, the recently retired U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, will discuss the diplomatic challenges in dealing with North Korea, focusing on denuclearization, its scope and likelihood. Yun will also sketch out the current state of US relations in the region and share his views on how the leading regional players—South Korea, Japan, China and Russia—view North Korea.
Image
Ambassador Yun is recognized as one of the nation’s leading experts on relations with North Korea, as well as on broader US-East Asian policy. His 33-year diplomatic career has been marked by his commitment to face-to-face engagement as the best avenue for resolving conflict and advancing cross-border cooperation. As Special Envoy on North Korea from 2016 to 2018, he led the State Department’s efforts to align regional powers behind a united policy to denuclearize North Korea. He was instrumental in reopening the “New York channel,” a direct communication line with officials from Pyongyang, through which he was able to secure the release of the American student, Otto Warmbier, who had been held in captivity for 15 months.
From 2013 to 2016 he served as US Ambassador to Malaysia, actively forwarding the administration’s goal of elevating relations with Southeast Asia. During his tenure, Ambassador Yun hosted two visits to Malaysia by President Obama—the first by any US President since 1966—resulting in the signing of the US-Malaysian Comprehensive Partnership Agreement, pledging closer cooperation on security, trade, education, technology, energy, the environment, and people-to-people ties.
As Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (2011-2013), he helped to bring about the diplomatic normalization of American relations with Myanmar, traveling to Rangoon as the first US-based government official to meet with Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi following her release from house arrest. He also worked to lay the foundation for official participation by the President of the United States in the annual East Asian Summit, starting from 2011.
Previous assignments include Deputy Assistant Secretary for Southeast Asian Policy, Counselor for Political Affairs in the US Embassy in Seoul, Economic Counselor in the US Embassy in Bangkok, as well as earlier assignments in South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong, and France. He has received a Presidential Meritorious Service Award, four Superior Honors Awards, and nine Foreign Service Performance Awards from the US State Department.
Ambassador Yun joined the Foreign Service in 1985. Prior to that he was a senior economist for Data Resources, Inc., in Lexington, Massachusetts. He holds a M. Phil. degree from the London School of Economics and a BS from the University of Wales.
Joseph Yun
<i>former US Special Representative for North Korea Policy</i>
Under the guidance of the Aspen Institute Congressional Program, thirteen members of Congress convened at Stanford University from March 2-5 to discuss policy options regarding the current North Korea crisis. The representatives deliberated with scholars and practitioners to acquire a better understanding of North Korea and its ruling regime, review the regional actors and their interests, assess the range of potential solutions to the crisis, and determine the role of Congress on this issue.
A report summarizing the program’s dialogue is now available for download. In addition to providing non-attributed comments from the proceedings, the document also includes the itinerary for the three days, the names of participants, as well as a collection of relevant publications.
The Aspen Institute Congressional Program was established in 1983 by former U.S. Senator Dick Clark. The program is for members of the United States Congress, and is both nongovernmental and nonpartisan in design. The program gives senators and representatives the opportunity to delve into complex and critical public policy issues with internationally recognized experts. Lawmakers are given the opportunity to explore policy alternatives in off-the-record settings, while simultaneously building relationships crucial to finding solutions.
In a flurry of developments that left experts stunned, the long-stalled Korean peace train has suddenly left the station. Sitting in the locomotive is the engineer of these events, North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong Un.
Where is the peace train headed? No one really knows. It can easily be derailed. And it could lead not to peace, but to war, writes Sneider.
"Although peace was the prevailing theme of the opening night at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, the air in the VIP box was charged with awkwardness and intimidation," said researchers at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in a recently published article. "The real test for Moon's leadership begins now."
The full article in East Asia Forum is available here.
Hero Image
2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
This paper examines the impact of government guaranteed small business loans on regional growth. I construct a metro-level panel of the Small Business Administration's guaranteed loans and examine economic growth between 1993 and 2002, across 316 metro areas in the US. A simple OLS regression finds a significant positive relationship between small business loans and regional growth. However, first-difference and instrumental variable regressions that mitigate endogeneity find no significant employment or income growth effects from small business loans. At least from an efficiency perspective, there seems to be no net gains to the regional economy from guaranteed small business loans.
When U.S. Vice President Michael Pence recently met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo ahead of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, he declared that “The United States-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace, prosperity, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific.” Examining U.S.-Japan security relations is a priority of Stanford’s U.S.-Asia Security Initiative (USASI) at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Just days prior to the Vice President’s remarks, USASI and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) co-hosted the 2018 the U.S.-Japan Security and Defense Dialogue Series, where a key theme was coordination and cooperation in the long-standing U.S.-Japan security relationship.
Held in Tokyo from January 31 through February 2, this workshop convened senior Japanese and American policymakers, military leaders, scholars, and regional experts to discuss Japan's security strategy and the alliance between Japan and the United States. It is part of a dialogue series that deepens a discourse on contemporary Asia-Pacific security issues, while building bridges between American and Asian academics, government and military officials, and other defense and security policy specialists. Over the course of three days, core participants held frank discussions with scholars, government officials, and military leaders from both countries about the status of the U.S.-Japan security alliance given the present array of challenges in the region; met in private with key members of the Japanese government and the United States Embassy; and also engaged in candid conversations with military leaders that analyzed Japanese and American combined military planning and operations.
“This year’s workshop was the second meeting of the US-Japan Security and Defense Dialogue Series,” said USASI Director, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry. “It continues to be an excellent venue for the exchange of views between government and military officials, academics, and those with policy experience on U.S.-Japan security relations.”
Workshop Co-Host, Lieutenant General Noboru Yamaguchi, Japanese Ground Self Defense Force (Retired) and Special Advisor to the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, commented: "The issues we discussed were timely and important as the security environment surrounding the alliance is serious and cooperation among Japan, the United States, the Republic of Korea, and other partners, while improving, has a long way to go."
Solidifying the U.S. Alliance with Japan
(From left to right: General Vincent Brooks, Commander, UNC/CFC/USFK; Ambassador David Shear; Ambassador Michael Armacost; and Workshop Co-Hosts Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and Lieutenant General, (Retired) Noboru Yamaguchi)
(From left to right: General Vincent Brooks, Commander, UNC/CFC/USFK; Ambassador David Shear; Ambassador Michael Armacost; and Workshop Co-Hosts Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and Lieutenant General, (Retired) Noboru Yamaguchi)
Day One of the dialogue saw participants engage in a series of frank discussions on many of the challenges facing the U.S.-Japan security alliance, including American and Japanese assessments of security trends in East Asia; training, operations, and strategic planning between the U.S. and Japan armed forces; and security cooperation and instability on the Korean Peninsula.
“The Workshop is an unique opportunity for participants to share their views on political, economic, and security developments in the Indo-Pacific area,” reflected Ambassador Eikenberry. “It provides a way for the United States and Japan to explore ways to achieve the shared goal of maintaining peace and prosperity in the region.”
Visits with U.S. Mission and Japan Foreign Minister
Highlights for Day Two included a meeting between core dialogue participants and key officials at the U.S. Embassy in Japan, including Ambassador William Hagerty. The day ended with a consultation with Japan Foreign Minister Taro Kono. APARC faculty and affiliates at that meeting included Ambassador Eikenberry, Ambassador Michael Armacost, USASI Associate Director Dr. Belinda Yeomans, and visiting scholar Dan Sneider.
“The diversity of the participants made the dialogue especially interesting,” said Ambassador Armacost. “The presentations and comments were both thoughtful and practical.” The frank and open dialogue about the operation of the U.S.-Japan security alliance, noted Sneider, covered topics ranging “from the broad strategic level to the nitty gritty issues of alliance coordination and cooperation. Both Japanese and American participants have found this to be refreshing and revealing.”
Fleet Activities Yokosuka
(Meeting with Commander of the Japanese Self-Defense Fleet, Vice Admiral Kazuki Yamashita)
(Meeting with Commander of the Japanese Self-Defense Fleet, Vice Admiral Kazuki Yamashita)
The 2018 U.S.-Japan Security and Defense Dialogue Series closed with a group of the U.S. and Japanese participants visiting United States Fleet Activities Yokosuka. There, they met with the Commander of the U.S. 7th Fleet, Vice Admiral Phil Sawyer, and had a working lunch aboard USS Chancellorsville. They subsequently toured the Memorial Ship Mikasa (famous for serving as Admiral Togo’s flagship during the Russo-Japanese War) and met with the Commander of the Self-Defense Fleet, Vice Admiral Suzuki Yamashita at his headquarters. The conversations throughout the day focused on the importance of the alliance and the challenges of conducting combined U.S.-Japanese naval and joint operations.
Chatham House Rule applied to the dialogue, but a workshop report with no direct attribution or remarks will soon be made available to the public.
June 2018 Update: the 2018 workshop report is now published. Read it now.
The U.S.-Asia Security Initiative is part of Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Led by former U.S. Ambassador and Lieutenant General (Retired) Karl Eikenberry, USASI seeks to further research, education, and policy relevant dialogues at Stanford University on contemporary Asia-Pacific security issues.
Hero Image
(Seated at table, from left to right: Japan Foreign Minister Taro Kono, Ambassador Michael Armacost, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, and Ambassador David Shear)
“I don't think [young South Koreans] necessarily want reunification,” APARC director Gi-Wook Shin tells an audience during the World Affairs panel, “Responding to North Korea: South Korea’s Olympic Olive Branch and US Cyber Warfare Options." Joined by Ambassador Kathleen Stephens, the two spoke with World Affars CEO Jane Wales about many of the issues facing the Korean peninsula as it prepares for the start of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics
Lee Jong-Seok served as vice-secretary of South Korea’s National Security Council and as its unification minister under the Roh Moo-Hyun administration (2003–08). After Roh’s tragic death in 2009, Lee resolved to present a record of the so-called participatory government’s achievements and failures in the realm of unification, foreign affairs, and national security.
Peace on a Knife’s Edge is the translation of Lee’s 2014 account of Roh’s efforts to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula in the face of opposition at home from conservative forces and abroad from the Bush administration’s hard stances of “tailored containment” and its declaration of the North as part of the “axis of evil.” Lee’s narrative will give American readers rare insights into critical moments of Roh’s incumbency, including the tumultuous Six-Party Talks; the delicate process of negotiating the relocation and reduction of United States Forces Korea; Roh’s pursuit of South Korea’s “autonomous defense”; conflicts with Japan over history issues; and the North’s first nuclear weapons test.
(From left to right: General Vincent Brooks, Commander, UNC/CFC/USFK; Ambassador David Shear; Ambassador Michael Armacost; and Workshop Co-Hosts Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and Lieutenant General, (Retired) Noboru Yamaguchi)
(Meeting with Commander of the Japanese Self-Defense Fleet, Vice Admiral Kazuki Yamashita)
