Stanford University

Taiwan's Place in the Evolving Security Environment of East Asia

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In March 2018 the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project, a part of the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia- Pacific Research Center, convened a workshop that examined Taiwan’s place in the evolving security environment of East Asia. Participants from the United States, Taiwan, and elsewhere in Asia were experts on a wide array of economic, diplomatic, and security topics. The discussions at the workshop were intended to place Taiwan’s security challenges in a broader regional context, to consider possible obstacles to and opportunities for greater multilateral cooperation on security issues, and to devise a set of recommendations for steps that Taiwan and its friends and partners could take to enhance regional security relationships.

This workshop report provides an executive summary, policy recommendations for both the United States and Taiwan, and a summary of workshop sessions.

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Kharis Templeman, Ph.D.

North Korea expert selected as 2018-19 Koret Fellow

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Andray Abrahamian will be the 2018-19 Koret Fellow in the Korea Program at Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Abrahamian has been Executive Director and Director of Research for Choson Exchange, a non-profit that has trained over 2000 North Koreans in entrepreneurship and economic policy since 2010. His work for Choson Exchange and other projects has taken him to North Korea 30 times. He has also lived in Myanmar, allowing him the ability to conduct field research for his new book, North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths (2018, McFarland). Divergent Paths asks how Myanmar came to end its isolation, while North Korea has yet not. 

“When it comes to North Korea, Dr. Abrahamian has been very active both as an academic and on the ground. He has genuine hands-on experience of working with North Koreans from his numerous trips to the country. In this important period of flux for North Korea’s place on the world stage, we welcome Dr. Abrahamian as 2018-19 Koret Fellow, and look forward to his meaningful contributions to our activities.” “His experience and understanding of North Korea will be a great asset to our program,” Gi-Wook Shin, director of APARC said.

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As the 2018-19 Koret Fellow, Abrahamian will research the economic relations of North Korea during changing geopolitical conditions as well as entrepreneurship in North Korea as it relates to communities of Koreans abroad. He also plans to write a general readership book that explains contemporary North Korean society. While at Stanford, he will teach a course on contemporary North Korean society and engage in public talks and conferences on Korea issues. During his fellowship, Abrahamian will also help organize the Koret Workshop, an international conference held annually at Stanford University.

Abrahamian is an Honorary Fellow at Macquarie University, Sydney, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. He is a frequent contributor to 38North.org, a website focused on North Korea analysis, and is a member of the US National Committee on North Korea. Andray holds a PhD from the University of Ulsan and an MA from the University of Sussex in International Relations. He has taught courses at Yangon University and Ulsan University. 

Supported by the Koret Foundation, the fellowship brings leading professionals to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary Korean affairs with the broad aim of strengthening ties between the United States and Korea.

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Assessing the Effectiveness of Alliance Responses to Regional and Global Threats

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From 31 January through 1 February 2018, Stanford University’s U.S.-Asia Security Initiative (USASI) and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF), gathered in Tokyo representatives from the government, defense, and academic sectors of the United States and Japan for the second workshop of the U.S.-Japan Security and Defense Dialogue Series. The purpose of the workshop was to facilitate frank discussions between academic scholars, subject matter experts, government officials, and military leaders on the current strategic and operational security challenges to the U.S.-Japan security alliance. The goal of the dialogue was to establish a common understanding of the problems facing the U.S.-Japan security alliance and to develop actionable policy recommendations aimed at addressing these issues.

This conference report provides an executive summary, policy recommendations, and a summary of the workshop sessions and findings. More information about USASI is available here.

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Gi-Wook Shin on Korea

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Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and of the Korea Program, regularly writes on Korean affairs for Korean audience. His recent articles in Munhwa Ilbo, a South Korean daily newspaper, are listed below. Note: these articles are written in Korean.

Three ambiguities should be resolve in Hanoi (Gi-Wook Shin, February 13, 2019)

Come and See Silicon Valley, the Front Line for the U.S.-China Technology War (Gi-Wook Shin, January 23, 2019)

The Danger of the Administrative Politicization of the Moon Government (Gi-Wook Shin, January, 9, 2019)

Populism Politics and Democracy in Korea (Gi-Wook Shin, November 28, 2018)

BTS and Kim Jong Un are well-known to Americans (Gi-Wook Shin, November 7, 2018)

North Korea nuclear issue: A chronic disease (Gi-Wook Shin, October 17, 2018)

This time North Korea must take the opportunity missed 20 years ago (Gi-Wook Shin, September 19, 2018)

The Danger of a Compromised Alliance (Gi-Wook Shin, August 1, 2018)

With Trade War, Will U.S. and China Fall into Thucydides Trap?  (Gi-Wook Shin, July 18, 2018)

Three Track approach is still valid in dealing with North Korea nuclear issues (Gi-Wook Shin, July 4, 2018)

Withdrawal of US troops from South Korea now becomes an option (Gi-Wook Shin, June 20, 2018)

Risky game between North Korea and U.S. (Gi-Wook Shin, May 30, 2018)

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Beyond denuclearization, making North Korea a ‘normal state’ should be the end goal

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Gi-Wook Shin
Joyce Lee
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The following article first appeared on The Diplomat.

With the historic U.S.-North Korea summit on the immediate horizon, we must recognize that denuclearization will not and cannot be permanent or irreversible as long as there is a desire to reverse it. U.S. President Donald Trump may strike a “grand deal” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to denuclearize North Korea, but Kim can — and most likely will — reverse course at his convenience to construct new nuclear weapons. By focusing solely on denuclearization, we risk losing sight of the bigger, more important picture — that is, transforming North Korea into a normal state that no longer sees the need to pursue nuclearization for deterrence, survival, or any other reason.

Much of debate has centered on why Kim suddenly emerged from long-held silence to take the world’s center stage through a series of summits. Was he pressured by toughened sanctions, as Trump credits himself for? Or was it an expression of Kim’s confidence as a leader of a now de facto nuclear power, with more leverage for negotiation? Or has he simply been trying to buy time to avoid war — to get through the unpredictable and ruthless Trump’s tenure as U.S. president? Yet, what really matters now is not so much the question of why Kim came to the table, but rather how we can make the latest détente sustainable without repeating the failures of the past. Will it be different this time?

With the Trump-Kim summit now back on the track after a 24-hour drama of cancellation then resumption, each side seems to have softened its stance by lowering the bar. Next week in Singapore, both leaders will be sorely tempted by clear political and economic interests to paint the meeting as a success. Real challenges, however, will arise as the logistical details of North Korea’s denuclearization are discussed following the summit. The Trump team is unlikely to abandon its goal of the CVID (complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization) of North Korea, while Kim and his men will stand firmly against this all-out approach so as not to follow the footsteps of Libya, Iraq, or Ukraine. North Korea has reportedly demanded a CVIG (complete, verifiable, and irreversible guarantee) of the security of the current regime, but there is a great danger that these deals, if made, will be nothing more than another sheet of paper full of empty words. The deep mistrust between the two countries cannot be overcome overnight, especially considering that both leaders have pretty bad track records of reneging on previous commitments. Neither CVID nor CVIG has much chance of being realized in the current context, from either a technical or a practical perspective.

With all this skepticism, why should we still bother playing this game with North Korea again? It is because we see a window of opportunity to guide North Korea into the international community through processes of diplomatic communication, exchange, and engagement. North Korea’s summit diplomacy has revealed its desire to appear a normal state. Kim vigorously showcased four summit meetings  — twice each with China’s Xi Jinping and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in — and numerous high-level meetings, within two months, all within the parameters of conventional “state-to-state” relationships, departing from past practices. Standing side-by-side with the South Korean president to read out a joint declaration, immediately releasing news of Kim’s summit meetings through its media, presenting Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, as the state’s first lady — all of this would have been unthinkable in his father or grandfather’s generation.

North Korea’s latest efforts at international recognition as a normal state may be insincere and ill-intentioned, but even so, we should continue to allow North Korea and Kim to experience firsthand what it feels like and means to be treated as a normal state and a normal leader according to the ordinary conventions of international diplomacy. Although the goal seems so far away and unreachable, we should strive to normalize North Korea in all respects — its economy, its domestic and international politics, its integration into international institutions, and its adherence to international laws, norms, rights, duties, orders, etc.

CVID can still serve as a short- to mid-term goal, but not as a definitive solution to the long-standing North Korean threat. Whatever is decided at the upcoming summit, a more comprehensive roadmap should be set for enacting desirable transformations in security and economic relations with North Korea, putting the country on a path to become a stable and normal state increasingly integrated into the international community, where it would feel secure without a need for nuclear armament. As Trump says, he is starting a “process” of dealing with North Korea; the upcoming summit should be the beginning of an opportunity to advance this goal. After all, a normal North Korea can achieve CVID, but CVID cannot achieve a normal state.

Gi-Wook Shin is director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, and Joyce Lee is a research professional in the Korea Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.

 

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Break Through: Women in Silicon Valley, Womenomics in Japan

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Gender inequality in the workplace is still a reality and an issue that must be tackled head-on in Silicon Valley and Japan. In 2017, the World Economic Forum reported for the first time in 10 years, a widening of the global gender gap. Numerous efforts to break this cycle have been announced and implemented to varying degrees of success in both countries making it clear that we must do more, together.

While women in the United States comprise 59% of the total workforce, they only make up 30% of major technology companies and only 11% of the executive positions in Silicon Valley are held by women. An industry that prides itself on innovative thinking and breakthroughs that can fundamentally improve quality of life has yet to find its way to disrupt gender inequality in its ranks. In recent years, Silicon Valley has been rocked by a number of high-profile sexual discrimination and harassment cases. In 2016, women tech leaders created the “Elephant in the Valley” survey to gather data on women’s experiences. The result was a bleak picture of Silicon Valley’s pervasive gender discrimination atmosphere but also the creation of a platform for women to share stories and build networks of support and activism based on shared experience.

As Japan faces a shrinking and aging population, it must pursue productivity growth to remain a wealthy nation. Women, long underutilized in Japan’s workforce, are receiving renewed attention with the Abe administration’s slogan of Womenomics as part of his Abenomics economic reform package. This political pledge has yielded some momentum with a number of concrete policy measures. Prime Minister Abe has even gone so far as to say “Abenomics is Womenomics.” There is still progress to be made. The Acceleration Program in Tokyo for Women (APT), spearheaded by Governor Yuriko Koike, the first female governor of Tokyo, aims to counter this narrative by providing opportunities for women entrepreneurs to build networks, receive mentoring, and become a focal point for dynamism.

The Break Through conference aims to create a dialogue that will spark innovative ideas for narrowing the gender gap by bringing together women thought leaders and entrepreneurs from Stanford, Silicon Valley and Japan to cultivate interpersonal support networks and collaboration.

This conference will:

  • Provide tools for branding and building support networks
  • Discuss progress and challenges in women’s advancement in Silicon Valley and Japan
  • Share practices and organizational features that better enable the hiring and retaining of women
  • Showcase Silicon Valley and Japanese women entrepreneurs

This conference is organized by Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (S-APARC) Japan Program thanks to the generous support of the Acceleration Program in Tokyo for Women (APT), Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

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Agenda

9:30-10:00       Registration

10:00-10:05     Opening & Welcome Remarks

10:05-10:35     Women Entrepreneurs in the United States

- Judy Gilbert, Chief People Officer, Zymergen   

10:35-11:00     Womenomics in Japan

- Yuko Osaki, Gender Equality Bureau, Cabinet Office, Japanese Government              

11:00-11:30     Fireside Chat 1

- Yoky Matsuoka, Chief Technology Officer, Nest

with Frances Colón, CEO, Jasperi Consulting

11:30-12:00     Fireside Chat 2

- Claire Chino, President & CEO, Itochu International Inc.

with Haruko Sasamoto, Assistant Manager Silicon Valley Branch, Mitsubishi Corporation (Americas)

12:00-13:00     Lunch

13:00-14:00     Start-up Showcase Group 1 (5 Japanese Startups)

14:00-14:15     Break

14:15-15:15     Start-up Showcase Group 2 (5 Silicon Valley Startups)

Feedback for both showcases given by:

- Allison Baum, Co-founder and Managing Partner, Fresco Capital

- Atsuko Jenks, Managing Direction-Japan, GSV Labs

- Jaclyn Selby, Research Scholar, Stanford University

15:15-16:15     Workshop: Leveraging Your Personal Brand to Effectively Lead

How others—from team members to board members—perceive you directly affects your ability to effectively lead and get results. For this reason, and especially for women entrepreneurs, it is crucial to understand your personal brand and carefully manage it. In this hands-on workshop, we will use Design Thinking as a framework to help you identify your strengths, skills and unique differentiators and how to effectively communicate these in your work environment.

Workshop Facilitator:

- Sylvia Vaquer, Co-founder and Chief Creative Officer, SocioFabrica

16:15     Closing Remarks 

 

Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw Hall

326 Galvez Street, Stanford, CA

Conferences

Confronting Climate Change: What Can the US and Japan Contribute to Creating Sustainable Societies?

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This report was produced for the Abe Fellows Global Forum 2017 symposiums on climate change, held in partnership with Stanford University's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center (Abe Global | Stanford, October 20, 2017) and the Asia Society Texas Center (Abe Global | Houston, October 18, 2017), respectively. 

Energy-intensive production has been both a leading contributor to climate change as well as one of the keys to modern economic growth over the last several centuries. In the post-WWII era, the “economic miracles” of Asian growth—starting with Japan, and followed by South Korea, Taiwan, China, and now increasingly India—have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. At the same time, these “economic miracles” have created huge pollution problems which have adversely affected the health of millions of people while speeding up the effects of climate change.

Some early developers from this group—including Japan—have made efforts to clean up their air and water, created more energy efficient economies, lowered their carbon footprints and contributed to initiatives to slow global warming. The Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster forced Japan to take even more aggressive action to reduce energy consumption and lessen its impact on the global environment. In contrast, the United States, as a sizeable nation-state both in its geographic area and economy, is one of the world’s largest polluters and recently made recent headlines when it withdrew from the Paris Agreement negotiated at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21).

Putting into place effective measures to curtail climate change while creating sustainable societies requires international cooperation. The series of extreme weather events in the US in 2017 are only some the most recent disasters to remind us of climate change’s threat to our economy, our society, and our individual daily lives.

 

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North Korea Summit Diplomacy: Round 2

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After his secret meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in March, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is set to meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on April 27 at Peace House, south of the military demarcation line. This would make Kim Jong-un the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea since the Korean War. A panel of Korea experts will engage in discussion about outcomes and implications of this historic summit.

Panelists:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC; Senior Fellow at FSI; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

Kathleen Stephens, William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea

Philip Yun, Executive Director and Chief Operation Officer of Ploughshares Fund; former vice president at The Asia Foundation

Yong Suk Lee (moderator), Deputy Director of Korea Program, Shorenstein APARC; SK Center Fellow at FSI, Stanford University

 

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North Korea summit diplomacy

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"Moon's proposal of a trilateral summit between the two Koreas and the United States, undermining China's influence, turned out to be nothing more than a pipe dream," said researchers at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in a recently published article. "The series of summits that began with Kim's visit to Beijing should lead to Four Party Talks — involving the two Koreas, the United States, and China."

The full article in The Diplomat is available here.

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President Moon of South Korea meeting at Cheong Wa Dae with Mr. Kim Yong-nam of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea
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Marketcraft: How Governments Make Markets Work

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Modern-day markets do not arise spontaneously or evolve naturally. Rather they are crafted by individuals, firms, and most of all, by governments. Thus "marketcraft" represents a core function of government comparable to statecraft and requires considerable artistry to govern markets effectively. Just as real-world statecraft can be masterful or muddled, so it is with marketcraft. 

In his new book, Steven Vogel builds his argument upon the recognition that all markets are crafted then systematically explores the implications for analysis and policy. In modern societies, there is no such thing as a free market. Markets are institutions, and contemporary markets are all heavily regulated. The "free market revolution" that began in the 1980s did not see a deregulation of markets, but rather a re-regulation. Vogel looks at a wide range of policy issues to support this concept, focusing in particular on the US and Japan. He examines how the US, the "freest" market economy, is actually among the most heavily regulated advanced economies, while Japan's effort to liberalize its economy counterintuitively expanded the government's role in practice. 

Marketcraft demonstrates that market institutions need government to function, and in increasingly complex economies, governance itself must feature equally complex policy tools if it is to meet the task. In our era-and despite what anti-government ideologues contend-governmental officials, regardless of party affiliation, should be trained in marketcraft just as much as in statecraft.

SPEAKER

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Steven K. Vogel, Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley

BIO

Steven K. Vogel is the Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He specializes in the political economy of the advanced industrialized nations, especially Japan. He recently completed a book, entitled Marketcraft: How Governments Make Markets Work (Oxford, 2018), which argues that markets do not arise spontaneously but rather are crafted by individuals, firms, and most of all by governments.  Thus “marketcraft” represents a core function of government comparable to statecraft.  The book systematically reviews the implications of this argument, critiquing prevalent schools of thought and presenting lessons for policy.  Vogel is also the author of Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry Are Reforming Japanese Capitalism (Cornell, 2006) and co-editor (with Naazneen Barma) of The Political Economy Reader: Markets as Institutions (Routledge, 2008). His first book, Freer Markets, More Rules: Regulatory Reform in Advanced Industrial Countries  (Cornell, 1996), won the Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. He edited his mother’s book, Suzanne Hall Vogel, The Japanese Family in Transition: From the Professional Housewife Ideal to the Dilemmas of Choice(Rowman & Littlefield, 2013), and a volume on U.S.-Japan Relations in a Changing World(Brookings, 2002).  He won the Northern California Association of Phi Beta Kappa Teaching Excellence Award in 2002, and the UC Berkeley Faculty Award for Outstanding Mentorship of Graduate Student Instructors in 2005.  He has been a columnist for Newsweek-Japan and the Asahi Shimbun, and he has written extensively for the popular press.  He has worked as a reporter for the Japan Times in Tokyo and as a freelance journalist in France. He has taught previously at the University of California, Irvine and Harvard University. He has a B.A. from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Steven K. Vogel, Il Han New Professor of Asian Studies and a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley
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