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The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well‐known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work‐lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases and how the effects vary across populations.

Using a microsimulation model, the authors examine the health effects of smoking reduction by simulating an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. They find that life expectancy would increase by 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers and 2.5 to 3.7 years among heavy smokers. Whereas both interventions led to an increased life expectancy and decreased the prevalence of chronic diseases in all three countries, the life‐extension benefits were greatest for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers. The authors' findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries.

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Health Economics
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Karen Eggleston
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U.S.-China relations have evolved from past templates of  "responsible stakeholder" and "G2" to new ones emphasizing strategic competition.  What is the impact of this competition for broader stability in East Asia?  How does the ongoing U.S.-China trade war impact U.S. allies in Asia?   In particular, how does strategic competition between these two power affect the choices of key allied states like Korea?  Professor Cha will present some research-in-progress on these topics that seeks a broader conceptualization of the costs and benefits behind the latest turn in U.S.-China relations.

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Victor Cha is a 2019-20 Koret Fellow at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center during the winter quarter.  He is Vice Dean and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in Government and International Relations at Georgetown University, and is also Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington D.C. He formerly served on the National Security Council staff and as the US Deputy head of delegation for the Six Party talks. Professor Cha received a PhD in political science and a master's in international affairs from Columbia University; an MA in philosophy, politics, and economics from the University of Oxford; and an AB in economics from Columbia University.

Victor Cha <i>Professor of Government, Georgetown University</i>
Seminars
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Panelists:

Young-Sun Ha, Chairman, East Asia Institute, South Korea; Professor emeritus, Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University

Wang Hwi Lee, Professor, Political Science, Ajou University, South Korea

Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Gi-Wook Shin (moderator), Director, Shorenstein APARC;  William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, Stanford University

 

Panel Discussions
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This event is at full capacity and we are no longer accepting registrations.

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Brigadier General Robert Spalding (US Air Force, Retired)

Robert Spalding is a national security policy strategist, and globally recognized for his knowledge of Chinese economic competition and influence, as well as for his ability to forecast global trends and develop innovative solutions. He has served in senior positions of strategy and diplomacy within the Defense and State Departments for more than 26 years, retiring as brigadier general.

He was the chief architect for the Trump Administration’s widely praised National Security Strategy (NSS), and the Senior Director for Strategy to the President at the National Security Council.
 
Dr. Spalding is a skilled combat leader, and a seasoned diplomat. Under Dr. Spalding’s leadership, the 509th Operations Group—the nation’s only B-2 Stealth Bomber unit—experienced unprecedented technological and operational advances. Dr. Spalding’s demonstrated acumen for solving complex technological issues to achieve operational success, was demonstrated when he led a low-cost rapid-integration project for a secure global communications capability in the B-2, achieving tremendous results at almost no cost to the government. As commander, he led forces in the air and on the ground in Libya and Iraq. He is a former China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Joint Staff at the Pentagon, as well as having served as the senior defense official and defense attaché in Beijing. During the UUV Incident of 2016, Dr. Spalding averted a diplomatic  crisis by negotiating with the Chinese PLA for the return of the UUV, without the aid of a translator.
 
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Dr. Spalding has written extensively on national security matters. His book, Stealth War: How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept (Portfolio; 2019) is an executive summary of his almost decade-long work countering Chinese Communist Party influence. It is being translated into additional languages. His work has been published in The Washington Post, The Washington Times, Foreign Affairs, The American Interest, War on the Rocks, FedTech Magazine, Defense One, The Diplomat, and other edited volumes. His Air Power Journal article on America’s Two Air Forces is frequently used in the West Point curriculum. He has been interviewed on FOX News and CNBC, as well as numerous radio and YouTube channels, both nationally and internationally.
Brigadier General Robert Spalding (US Air Force, Retired)
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Shorenstein APARCStanford UniversityEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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Koret Fellow, 2019-20
Visiting Scholar at APARC
robert_king.png Ph.D.

Robert R. King was a Visiting Scholar, Koret Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2019 fall term.  He is the former U.S. Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues at the U.S. Department of State (2009-2017).  He is Special Advisor to the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a non-resident Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute, and a member of the board of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. 

Ambassador King’s research interests include North Korea human rights, Northeast Asia, U.S. foreign policy, and the Congressional role in U.S. foreign affairs.  During his time at Shorenstein APARC, he researched the United States efforts to promote human rights in North Korea.

Before assuming his position at the Department of State, King was Staff Director and Minority Staff Director of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives (2001-2009).  He served as Chief of Staff to Congressman Tom Lantos of California (1983-2008).  He was a White House Fellow on the staff of the National Security Council (1977-1978), and Senior Analyst and Assistant Director of Research at Radio Free Europe in Munich, Germany (1970-1977).

King holds a PhD and an MALD in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and a BA in political Science from Brigham Young University.

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This event is part of the Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project Public Forum Series.

 

Consumption is a major driver of national economies, and scholars often study important differences across consumption patterns across countries, which influence many aspects of their societies and economies. Yet, the underlying business of logistics operations, and how they support countries’ respective retail industries, has as much, if not more impact than simply examining consumer behavior. In this public forum, Ryuichi Kakui, with deep expertise in eCommerce logistics, will explain how logistics are used in retail industries, comparing across the world’s three largest economies: the US, China, and Japan. He will introduce the concept of strategic logistics thinking and the “4C” framework and informs leading strategic logistics thinking. A conversation with Kenji Kushida, who examines how technologies and specific industry dynamics shape varying models of political economies around the world, will then link the area of logistics and retail to important systemic differences and underlying similarities across the world’s leading economies, which are pursuing contrasting models of social, economic, and political organization.

 

SPEAKERS

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Ryoichi Kakui is the founder of E-Logit, the leading eCommerce logistics company in Japan. He has published 29 books related to logistics, Amazon, and “omnichannel” distribution, which have been published in Japan, the US, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam. He is a frequent commentator on television, radio, newspapers, magazines, and other media. Educated in Sophia University in Japan with an MBA from Golden Gate University, he founded UKETORU in 2015, a app addressing the issue of re-delivery, which escalated to a social issue in Japan.

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Kenji Kushida is a research scholar at the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. One of this research themes examines how IT technologies shape political economies around the world, and how varying national political economic models shape the development trajectories of technologies. He leads the Silicon Valley – New Japan Project, a sustained platform for research and collaboration between Silicon Valley and the new and emerging aspects as Japan transforms itself.

 

PARKING

Please note there is significant construction taking place on campus, which is greatly affecting parking availability and traffic patterns at the university. Please plan accordingly. Open parking at Stanford University available starting 4:00pm unless otherwise marked. Nearest parking garage is Structure 7, below the Graduate School of Business Knight School of Management.

Seminars
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President Trump has stopped even mentioning North Korea’s abysmal human rights record in order to secure meetings with Leader Kim Jong-un ostensibly to make progress on serious security issues with North Korea.  After 18 months of White House effort and two and a half summits, however, there has been little progress on denuclearization.  Ambassador King argues that we must push North Korea on human rights in order to encourage the government in Pyongyang to respond positively the wishes of its own citizens.  Unless we do this, we are unlikely to see real progress on shifting North Korea’s focus from nuclear weapons and missiles to the wellbeing of its own people.

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Ambassador Robert R. King is former Special Envoy for North Korean human rights issues at the Department of State (2009-2017).  Since leaving that position, he has been senior advisor to the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute (KEI), and a board member of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) in Washington, D.C.  Previously, Ambassador King served for 25 years on Capitol Hill (1983-2008) as chief of staff to Congressman Tom Lantos (D-California), and staff director of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (2001-2008).

 

Robert R. King <i>2019-20 Koret Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University</i>
Seminars
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THE EVENT IS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC, BUT REGISTRATION IS REQUIRED. SEE BELOW FOR REGISTRATION LINK.

Japan and South Korea enjoyed a period of relatively stable trade and diplomatic relations, with expanding trade, deepening cultural and social ties, and a consistent but relatively managed level of friction. They both remain critical US allies in the region, with North Korea’s security threats and the rising power of China creating uncertainty in the regional security landscape. However, the sudden escalation of diplomatic and trade disputes between South Korea and Japan has alarmed numerous observers, angered people in both countries, and is generally confusing to many around the world to whom the two countries seem to have much to lose and little to gain by this escalation.

This event will shed light into the critical questions surrounding this current conflict. What has been the historical trajectory of the two countries’ diplomatic and trade relations? Is the current escalation part of the historical pattern of cycles of conflict and tension, or an aberration? What are the underlying forces at work that are driving the conflict? Are these new forces, or the same historical forces coming to a head? How much are factors from the international environment, such as the behavior of the United States, influencing the current escalation of trade conflict? What are the domestic political dynamics at work in each of the countries? What has been the historical role of the US in the South Korea-Japan relationship, and is it different this time? This conference brings together experts in the international affairs and trade relations of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. 

This event is sponsored jointly by Japan Program and Korea Program at the Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University.
 

AGENDA

1:00pm-1:05pm         Opening Remarks, Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

1:05pm-2:25pm         Panel 1 – Diplomacy and International Relations

Panelists

Kak-Soo Shin, former Korean Ambassador to Japan

Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman of the Institute for International Strategy at the Japan Research Institute, ltd.

Joseph Yun, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the State for Korea and Japan; former Special Representative on North Korea

Kenji Kushida (Moderator), Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC Japan Program, Stanford University

2:25pm-2:45pm         Panel 1 Audience Q&A

2:45pm-3:00pm         Break

3:00pm-4:20pm         Panel 2 - Trade Issues                   

Panelists

Yukiko Fukagawa, Professor, School of Political Science and Economics at Waseda University

Seokyoung Choi, former Korean Ambassador to WTO and UN in Geneva; former Deputy Minister for Trade

Aiko Lane, Executive Director of the US-Japan Business Council, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Yong Suk Lee (Moderator), Deputy Director, Shorenstein APARC Korea Program, Stanford University

4:20pm-4:40pm         Panel 2 Audience Q&A

4:40pm-4:45pm         Closing Remarks, Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC

 

PARKING

Pay parking spaces for the event will be available in the Galvez Event Lot and parking instructions including walking directions from the Galvez Lot to Encina Hall will be sent out to all registered attendees the week of the event.

RSVP

Required by 10/17/19. Limited seating available.

Registration link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/japan-south-korea-on-the-brink-escalating-friction-amidst-an-uncertain-world-tickets-72308158649

MEDIA

If you are part of the media and attending the event, please contact Noa Ronkin at noa.ronkin@stanford.edu

Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall, First floor, Central
616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

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South Korea's decision to end its military agreement with Japan will damage the prospect of continued close security ties among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo because the pact has been a symbol of smooth trilateral military cooperation between them and regarded as a key deterrent against North Korea.

"It is a big mistake," Shin Gi-wook, a Korea studies expert at Stanford University, said in a recent interview adding Seoul's withdrawal from the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) puts the "trilateral security framework at risk."

"The Japan-South Korea relationship may not have hit rock bottom, but it could further deteriorate in the coming months," Shin said. "This is all the more important with the continuing threat of North Korean WMD and the escalating conflict between the U.S. and China in the region. I am concerned that South Korea could be further isolated in the Northeast Asian region—the Moon administration should see the big picture," the professor said…

Read the full article in The Korea Times.

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David M. Lampton
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In the past six weeks, I have been in mainland China, Hong Kong (three times), and Washington. From these trips and recent developments, I have concluded that Hong Kong is a huge tragedy in the making. Proactive and positive moves by all parties to this rapidly deteriorating situation are required.

Though Washington is not a principal party in these developments, it should be a constructive force rather than irrelevant or counterproductive...

The elements of the current crisis are many. In Hong Kong, there is a leaderless movement on the ground. There are rising levels of political and socio-economic frustration among many Hong Kong citizens stemming from mobility and economic considerations, as well as perceptions of political retrogression in the special administrative region.

There is a tone-deaf, neutered local leadership that is prideful and unwilling to admit that it made a huge strategic misstep pushing forward with an ill-conceived extradition bill. And there are local tycoons who curry favour with Beijing rather than protecting the rule of law that is in their own long-term interests...

Read the full article on South China Morning Post.


For more by Okseberg-Rohlen Fellow David M. Lampton, read our recently posted Q&A in which he analyzes the escalating U.S.-China conflict.

 

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HONG KONG, CHINA - JULY 27: A woman shouts at police officers as they advance towards protesters in the district of Yuen Long on July 27, 2019 in Hong Kong, China.
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