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In October 2022, the Chinese Communist Party elected Xi Jinping for a third term as general secretary, setting Xi on a path to be the longest-serving leader since Mao Zedong’s rule ended in 1976.

The extension of Xi’s rule carries significant implications not only for China, but for the broader Indo-Pacific region and global geopolitical order. No country is more aware of this than Taiwan, which has carefully walked the line between its own autonomy and Beijing’s desire for reunification since the 1940s.

After a summer of rising tensions, many experts believe that Beijing’s timeline for an attempt at reunification is much shorter than conventional thinking has assumed. On the World Class podcast, Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, discusses the prognosis for Taiwan with Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the Chinese military and security, and Larry Diamond, a scholar of China’s sharp power and the role of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region.

Listen to the full episode and read highlights from their conversation below.

Click the link for a full transcript of “What We Need To Talk About When We Talk About Taiwan.“

The Likelihood of Invasion


In stark terms, Oriana Skylar Mastro, a center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, believes there’s a 100% chance China will use some sort of force against Taiwan in the next five years. For the last twenty years, China has been making concerted efforts to modernize its military and increase its capabilities not only to assert force against Taiwan, but to deter intervention from the United States.

In the majority of scenarios, the United States wins in a conflict with China over Taiwan. But the United States also carries a distinct geographic disadvantage. The distance across the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China is approximately 100 miles, which is roughly the distance between Richmond, Virginia and Washington D.C. If China moves quickly, PRC forces could take Taiwan before U.S. forces have time to move into position.

When considering possible outcomes in Taiwan, it is equally important to consider the motivations driving Beijing’s ambitions. The leadership on the mainland has been planning and thinking about how to retake Taiwan since 1949. With the modernized capabilities coming online, the balance of power has shifted in China’s military favor, and the cost-benefit calculus favors Beijing’s ambitions. The long-term planning stage is now reaching its end, and the prospects of direct action are increasing.

The clock is ticking. The problem is we don’t know how fast it’s ticking. But we need to move faster than we're moving.
Larry Diamond
Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI

The View from Taipei


Political leaders in Taiwan recognize the growing danger they face across the Strait. In Larry Diamond’s assessment, the end of Hong Kong's autonomy and the suppression of the “one country, two systems” model, the rising military incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone and coastal waters, and the whole rising pace of Chinese military intimidation has sobered Taiwan and visibly impacted Taiwanese public opinion.

Concerningly though, while the political elite recognize the real and present danger of the situation, polling of the general Taiwan public suggests that the vast majority of citizens still feel like an attack or an invasion by China is unlikely. Similar majorities suggest that they would be willing to fight in Taiwan’s defense, but volunteering for military service remains at a minimum.

To maximize safety, Taiwan needs to find ways to strengthen itself in its ability to defend, resist, and deter China, while still avoiding any appearance of moving toward permanent independence or any other action that could be deemed by Beijing as a provocation, says Diamond.

There are things that can completely change Beijing's calculus, but it takes a lot of work, and I just don't see us doing the work yet.
Oriana Skylar Mastro
FSI Center Fellow

What the United States Can Do


When it comes to the defense of Taiwan, the strategic crutch hobbling the United States is geography. Most of the U.S. Pacific forces are not in Asia. The majority are in Hawaii and California, as well as a few bases and airfields in Japan. To be able to effectively deter China, the U.S. needs far greater forward deployed military capability in order to be able to either stop or stall the movement of Chinese troops into Taiwan, says Mastro.

Taiwan needs greater onshore military deterrence capabilities as well. One such strategy is the “porcupine approach,” which increases the number of smaller mobile lethal weapons. By Larry Diamond’s assessment, increased citizen participation in military training is also crucial, with an emphasis on weapons training and urban defense tactics. The U.S. could support these aims by overhauling the current system for weapons procurement to speed up the production and delivery of weapons systems not just for Taiwan, but to the benefit of U.S. defense and other contingencies as well. Working with leadership to create strategic stockpiles of food, and energy should also be a priority, says Diamond.

The U.S. also needs to put much more effort into its diplomatic efforts on behalf of Taiwan. Many U.S. allies and partners are reluctant to ostracize China because of economic ties and concerns over sparking their own conflict with China in the future. A key ally in all of this is Japan. If Japan fights with the United States on behalf of Taiwan, it is a guaranteed win and enough to effectively deter China. But much more needs to be done much more quickly in order to secure those guarantees and present them in a convincing way to Beijing.

“The clock is ticking,” Larry Diamond says. “And the problem is we don’t know how fast it’s ticking. “Taiwan is moving in the right direction. But we need to move faster than we're moving.”

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A Taiwanese F-5 fighter jet is seen after taking off from Chihhang Air Base on August 06, 2022 in Taitung, Taiwan.
Commentary

China’s Huge Exercises Around Taiwan Were a Rehearsal, Not a Signal, Says Oriana Skylar Mastro

Nancy Pelosi’s visit was more pretext than provocation.
China’s Huge Exercises Around Taiwan Were a Rehearsal, Not a Signal, Says Oriana Skylar Mastro
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The flag of Taiwan flies over a military monunment in Kinmen, Taiwan. Getty
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Larry Diamond and Oriana Skylar Mastro join Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss China’s ambitions against Taiwan, and how the U.S. and its allies can deter Beijing.

Graphics and text about Nov 14 webinar, "India and the United States: Overcoming the Russian Hurdle"

1700-1800 Palo Alto, 14 November 2022
0900-1000 Singapore, 15 November 2022

This event is OFF THE RECORD.

US-India relations appeared to hit a plateau in 2022. The two countries’ different responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the depth of India’s long-standing defense dependence on Russia. That lingering relationship still inhibits the current-day US-India security partnership. How can the United States and India work to surmount this hurdle? This webinar presents research-in-progress by Erin Mello, a visiting scholar at APARC. It examines the impediments to deepening the US-India defense relationship, and each side’s current strategic priorities; and offers policy recommendations, at both the strategic and operational levels, to help offset India’s dependence on Russia.

Panelists

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Square photo portrait of Erin Mello
Erin Mello is a Visiting Scholar for the 2022-2023 fall quarter at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University. Mello currently serves as an analyst for the United States Indo-Pacific Command, and is a member of the Hawaii Air National Guard. While at APARC, Mello is conducting research on building integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, examining barriers to U.S.-India security cooperation, and how to overcome them.

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Square photo portrait of S. Paul Kapur
S. Paul Kapur is a professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School and a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He recently served in government, in the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, working on issues related to South and Central Asia, Indo-Pacific strategy, and U.S.-India relations. He the author of two books, and coauthor of a third, and also consults for the US Department of Defense. He earned his PhD from the University of Chicago.

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Square photo portrait of Yogesh Joshi
Yogesh Joshi is a Research Fellow at the Institute for South Asia Studies at the National University of Singapore. His research focuses on India’s foreign and security policy, and especially the evolution of India’s military power and its approach to the use of force. He is the coauthor of three books, including two on India’s nuclear forces, policy, and doctrine. Prior to joining NUS, he was a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, and he holds a PhD from Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Moderator:

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Square headshot photograph of Arzan Tarapore
Arzan Tarapore is the South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, where he leads the South Asia Initiative. His research focuses on military strategy, Indian defense policy, and contemporary Indo-Pacific security issues. Prior to his scholarly career, he served as an analyst in the Australian Defence Department. Arzan holds a PhD from King’s College London.

Virtual via Zoom

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E301
Stanford,  CA  94305-6055

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2022-23
Erin_Mello.jpg M.A.

Erin Mello joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as Visiting Scholar for the 2022-2023 fall quarter. Mello currently serves as analyst for US INDOPACOM and USAF/Hawaii Air National Guard. While at APARC, Mello conducted research on building integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, examining barriers to U.s.-India security cooperation and how to overcome theme.

S. Paul Kapur U.S. Naval Postgraduate school, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University Department of National Security Affairs and Senior Fellow
Yogesh Joshi Research Fellow, Institute for South Asia Studies National University of Singapore
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This commentary was first published by Nikkei Asia.


The White House has styled the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment announced by U.S. President Joe Biden in June as a $40 billion pathway to work with allies, partners and the private sector to offer sustainable, green infrastructure alternatives.

This marks the latest American effort to offer an infrastructure alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. But given the disappointing results seen with previous such programs, it is imperative that Washington look for lessons in the successes of other more creative efforts in recent years.

Experience shows that the U.S. and its allies can win important infrastructure victories by being strategic, proactive and persistent, and by building close partnerships between government and private business.


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Consider the deal under which U.S. private equity group Cerberus Capital acquired a bankrupt shipyard in the Philippines last April, keeping it out of Chinese hands.

The U.S. embassy in Manila had alerted Washington to the business' failure in 2019, noting that its Subic Bay location provided the closest deep-water port access and ship supply and repair facilities to the disputed South China Sea and that Philippine officials were concerned about the prospect of Chinese companies moving in. Some in Washington showed interest, but the bureaucracy initially struggled to translate this into action. Fortunately, key players in the government persisted.

Working closely with Cerberus executives to overcome delays and a decision by the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. (DFC) not to participate in the project, these officials developed a creative solution: obtaining commitments from the U.S. Army and the Philippine Navy to lease parts of the project area, thereby guaranteeing Cerberus the steady revenue stream it required to proceed. The deal was a big win but happened only through the ad hoc efforts of a few people.

The Australian government took a more proactive approach toward the sale of the Pacific arm of Digicel Group, which controlled much of the communications and internet infrastructure in six island nations, including Papua New Guinea. Two Chinese state-owned companies had immediately expressed interest in the assets when Irish billionaire Denis O'Brien put them up for sale in 2020.

While Digicel Pacific was profitable, private companies were reluctant to bid because of concerns about political stability in some host countries, and bankers were unwilling to bankroll the $1.52 billion in new debt required to complete a deal.

Canberra overcame these challenges by working with Australian telecom operator Telstra to buy the assets. The Australian government is now reportedly seeking to lay off some of the debt it incurred to the DFC and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

The key to getting the deal done was the Australian government's willingness to essentially de-risk the transaction for Telstra speedily and creatively. It moved quickly with international partners to fund cheap debt and guarantee regulatory, foreign exchange and sovereign risk while giving Telstra full equity ownership.

The U.S. and its allies can, when they focus imaginatively, offer countries in the region viable infrastructure options that reduce their dependence on Chinese investments. [But] this process remains ad hoc and needs substantial improvement.

The U.S. took a different but equally strategic approach toward a third infrastructure development of strategic importance: China's building of a deep-water port at Kyaukphyu on the Bay of Bengal in Myanmar.

CITIC Group, the Chinese state-owned lead investor, had initially proposed a $7.3 billion port complex which would have made Kyaukphyu as big as Southern California's massive Long Beach freight hub.

Some U.S. and Myanmar officials were concerned that Naypyidaw could be saddled with sizable debt for a project of questionable commercial viability as the Chinese proposal included loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars for Myanmar to finance its 15% stake. CITIC was to take 85%.

In response to a request from the National League for Democracy-led government, Washington's embassy in Yangon used funds from an existing U.S. Agency for International Development program to hire independent experts to conduct due diligence on the project.

They succeeded in downsizing the project to $1.3 billion and doubling Myanmar's equity participation to 30%, thus avoiding the need for borrowing from China. Going ahead on a smaller scale then greatly reduced concerns about potential repercussions.

These three efforts demonstrate that the U.S. and its allies can, when they focus imaginatively, offer countries in the region viable infrastructure options that reduce their dependence on Chinese investments.

They also highlight, however, that this process remains ad hoc and needs substantial improvement. For the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment to be successful, the U.S. and its partners must adopt a more systematic strategic approach.

This approach should include three components. First, the U.S. should build on its recent appointment of a global infrastructure coordinator at the State Department by moving that position to the White House. It should give the coordinator authority to bring together personnel from different agencies and ample staff of his or her own and provide a clear mandate to identify and pursue priority infrastructure projects aggressively.

Second, the U.S. must make better use of existing tools by bolstering the DFC's flexibility, requiring each embassy to assign an officer to identify potential projects and ensuring senior officials match Beijing's aggressive lobbying efforts.

Third, the U.S. infrastructure team should forge partnerships with private companies on specific infrastructure projects and redouble efforts to overcome the obstacles that have hindered cooperation with allies, including Japan, which on its own has achieved success on the infrastructure front, to co-finance and coordinate so as to avoid needless competition.

These recommendations will take commitment, political will and resourcing. But if Washington wants PGII to succeed, it will require the White House's strong commitment and a willingness to be nimble and creative in responding to opportunities.

The U.S. has made many promises in a variety of programs on global infrastructure development and consistently under-delivered. PGII must prove it can get things done.


James Carouso leads the advisory board to the Australia chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Scot Marciel is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University and a former U.S. ambassador to ASEAN, Indonesia and Myanmar. Both are senior advisers at strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia.

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Flanked by Sultan of Brunei Haji Hassanal Bolkiah (L) and President of Indonesia Joko Widodo (R), U.S. President Joe Biden points towards the camera.
Commentary

In Southeast Asia, the United States Needs to Up its Economic Game

The harsh reality is that, even with still-strong security partnerships, it is hard to imagine the US being able to sustain its overall influence in the region if it continues to lose ground economically.
In Southeast Asia, the United States Needs to Up its Economic Game
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2022-23 Lee Kong Chian National University of Singapore-Stanford Fellows to Explore Legacies of War in Southeast Asia, Islamic Law in Indonesia

Political scientist Jacques Bertrand and social anthropologist Reza Idria will join APARC as Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellows on Southeast Asia for the 2022-23 academic year.
2022-23 Lee Kong Chian National University of Singapore-Stanford Fellows to Explore Legacies of War in Southeast Asia, Islamic Law in Indonesia
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 U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the G7 summit at Schloss Elmau on June 26, 2022.
President Joe Biden speaks about the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment during the G7 summit at Schloss Elmau on June 26, 2022.
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Biden's Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment can take lessons from successes involving the private sector.

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Banner image for webinar "Asian Perspectives on the U.S.-China Competition: Assessing India's Role", featuring photo portraits of speakers Suhasini Haidar, Arvind Subramanian, and Arzan Tarapore

India’s role and prospects as a strategic competitor to China come down to two broad factors: its intent and its capacity. In the midst of intensifying U.S.-China competition, this webinar examines India’s intent and capacity to be an effective player in the Indo-Pacific’s strategic competition. On intent, India has steadfastly insisted since 2020 that the bilateral relationship cannot progress unless “peace and tranquility” are restored to their unsettled border; but in recent months India has also engaged diplomatically with China. On capacity, India’s economic performance lies at the core of its national power, but reforms have been haphazard and its recent economic performance has attracted doubts over its long-term potential. Has India struck the right balance of defiance and conciliation in its foreign policy? Is it doing enough to unleash its enormous economic and demographic potential? In both dimensions, how robust is – and should be – coordination with the United States?

 

Speakers:

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Square headshot of Ms Suhasini Haidar
Suhasini Haidar is the Diplomatic Editor of The Hindu, one of India’s oldest and most respected national dailies, and hosts a weekly online show "WorldView with Suhasini Haidar." Over the course of her 28-year reporting career, Suhasini has reported from across the region and the world, including Kashmir, where she was injured in a bomb blast. In India, she has covered the foreign affairs beat for over a decade, and was the recipient of the most prestigious Indian print journalism award, the Prem Bhatia. Suhasini began her career at CNN's United Nation's bureau in New York. She holds Bachelor's degree at Lady Shriram College in Delhi, and a Masters in Broadcast Journalism at Boston University

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Square headshot photo of Dr Arvind Subramanian
Arvind Subramanian is the Meera & Vikram Gandhi Fellow at the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia, and a Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, at Brown University. He was previously a professor of economics at Ashoka University, and the chief economic adviser to the Government of India between 2014 and 2018. Prior to that, he taught at Harvard, researched at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and worked at the IMF and GATT. In 2018, Professor Subramanian published Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy, reflecting on his time guiding India’s economy. He holds a DPhil from Oxford.

Moderator:

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Square headshot photograph of Arzan Tarapore
Arzan Tarapore is the South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, where he leads the South Asia Initiative. His research focuses on military strategy, Indian defense policy, and contemporary Indo-Pacific security issues. Prior to his scholarly career, he served as an analyst in the Australian Defence Department. Arzan holds a PhD from King’s College London.

 

This event is part of APARC’s 2022 Fall webinar series, Asian Perspectives on the U.S.-China Competition. 

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Suhasini Haidar Diplomatic Editor The Hindu
Arvind Subramanian Meera & Vikram Gandhi Fellow Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia
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Portraits of speakers Chisako T. Masuo, Ryo Sahashi, and Kiyoteru Tsutsui.

In the context of growing tensions between the U.S. and China, many Asian countries have faced the challenge of balancing their relationships with the two countries. Given its security alliance with the U.S. is a cornerstone of its foreign policy, Japan seems to be more closely aligned with the U.S. than any other country. However, Japan’s most important trade partner is China, and it cannot overlook its economic relations with China in making foreign policy decisions. What should Japan’s approach be with the increasingly authoritarian regime in China expanding its ambitions to compete with the U.S. while domestic turmoil hampers the U.S. capacity to project its power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region? As a growing number of trade agreements in the region, such as CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and now IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) create an alphabet soup of intersecting economic relations, how should Japan navigate the treacherous terrain to ensure its economic security and energy sufficiency? To answer these questions, this webinar features two leading Japanese experts in Chinese politics, economy, and diplomacy — Chisako Masuo and Ryo Sahashi.

Speakers

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Square photo portrait of Dr. Chisako T. Masuo
Chisako T. Masuo (益尾知佐子) is a Professor at the Faculty of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA). She was given the Nakasone Yasuhiro Award of Excellence in 2021 for her contribution to China studies and for the policy discussions regarding China’s Coast Guard Law. She received Ph.D. from the University of Tokyo in 2008. Her research topics include Chinese domestic politics, foreign and maritime policies, and international relations with regard to China. Professor Masuo was a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China Foreign Affairs University in 2019, and a coordinated research scholar working with the late Professor Ezra F. Vogel at the Harvard-Yenching Institute from 2014-2015. She is the author of China’s Behavioural Principles: International Relations Determined by the Domestic Currents (Tokyo: Chuko Publishing, 2019), as well as China Looks Back: Mao’s Legacy in the Open-Door Era (University of Tokyo Press, 2010), and a co-author of A Diplomatic History of China (University of Tokyo Press, 2017) all in Japanese. She also writes articles and book chapters in English and Chinese.

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Square photo portrait of Dr. Ryo Sahashi
Ryo Sahashi is an Associate Professor of International Relations, Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, the University of Tokyo. Dr. Sahashi specializes on international politics in East Asia. His recent book is US-China Rivalry: A Shift of American Strategy and Divided Worlds (Tokyo: Chuko, 2021), In a Search for Coexistence: the United States and Two Chinas during the Cold War (Tokyo: Keiso, 2015), and he edits East Asian Order in the Post-Cold War Era (Tokyo: Keiso, 2020). In English, he edits Looking for Leadership: The Dilemma of Political Leadership in Japan (Tokyo and New York: Japan Center for International Exchange, 2015), and his recent articles appears on China International Strategy Review, Contemporary Politics, and Journal of Contemporary China. he serves as a Member for Council on the Actual State of Land Use, Advisory Panel on Science & Technology Diplomacy, and Expert Panel on 50th Year of Japan-ASEAN Friendship and Cooperation. He also works as Faculty Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry; Visiting Fellow, 21st Century Policy Institute, Keidanren; Research Fellow of Japan Center for International Exchange. He has been Japan Scholar, Wilson Center, Visiting Associate Professor, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University and Professor, Kanagawa University. He received his B.A. from International Christian University and his Ph.D. from the Graduate Schools for Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo.

Moderator

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Square photo portrait of Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor, Professor of Sociology, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Deputy Director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where he is also Director of the Japan Program. He is the author of Rights Make Might: Global Human Rights and Minority Social Movements in Japan (Oxford University Press, 2018), co-editor of Corporate Responsibility in a Globalizing World (Oxford University Press, 2016) and co-editor of The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (University of Michigan Press, 2021). 

Kiyoteru Tsutsui

Virtual via Zoom Webinar

Chisako T. Masuo Professor, Faculty of Social and Cultural Studies Kyushu University
Ryo Sahashi Associate Professor of International Relations, Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia University of Tokyo
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Book cover for "Imperfect Partners"

Watch our interview below with Scot Marciel about Imperfect Partners. You can also read a summary news article of the conversation.

Listen to a conversation with Marciel on the Insight Myanmar podcast, below.

About the book

Scot Marciel is widely considered the State Department’s top Southeast Asia hand, the result of decades of experience working in and on the region and the key role he has played in shaping and implementing U.S. policy. He was on the ground in the Philippines during the historic People Power revolt in the 1980s, became the first U.S. diplomat to serve in Hanoi in the early 1990s, was appointed the first U.S. ambassador to ASEAN in the 2000s, and spent the last 15 years twice serving as the State Department’s point person on Southeast Asia policy, and as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia and then to Myanmar during that country’s democratic experiment and its horrific ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya.

Imperfect Partners encapsulates Marciel’s experiences, providing the perspective of an American diplomat who has dealt with the dual challenges of working with foreign governments and also within the U.S. government. Noting that the United States “has a history of not quite knowing how to engage with Southeast Asia,” he highlights the ups and downs of critical U.S. relationships in the region. Marciel explores not only diplomatic successes, but challenges faced, missteps made, and opportunities missed in U.S. diplomacy with Southeast Asia. His on-the-ground witness account of the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam relations is essential reading, as is his passionate analysis of the gains and the failures of Myanmar’s decade-long opening.

While China’s rise has re-injected a long-absent strategic element into U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia, Marciel warns against making China the focus of that policy. He argues that the United States can best advance its own interests—and support the freedom of maneuver of Southeast Asia—through a strategy of consistent engagement based on a positive agenda and by focusing on the region’s dynamic younger generation.


Virtual Book Talks

"What we have in this very readable book are the reflections of an eminent American diplomat on issues of particular significance for Australia as it continues to ponder how it should be responding to China’s rise, and how those responses are likely to affect its alliance with the US." — Dr. Allan Patience

Read the complete review at the Australian Institute for International Affairs >    

Praise for the Book

"For the United States, Southeast Asia is one of the most important and least understood parts of the world. Scot Marciel draws on his vast diplomatic experience to bring a wealth of illuminating stories, hard-earned insights, and wise analysis to bear on a region that will help determine our capacity to deal with the most pressing issues of the 21st century. . . . Imperfect Partners is an indispensable resource for anyone seeking to understand Southeast Asia and America’s relationship with its countries and people."
Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security advisor and author of After the Fall

"Drawing on his 35 years of diplomatic experience, Scot Marciel has written an illuminating survey of the United States' relations with Southeast Asia. . . . This is an excellent primer on a part of the world whose significance has grown substantially in recent years with the rise of neighboring China."
John Negroponte, career diplomat, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and the first director of national intelligence

"Ambassador Scot Marciel has written a gem of a book. His thoughtfully researched account is brought to life with fascinating insights and captivating, on-the-scene anecdotes. . . . Imperfect Partners is a must-read for U.S. policymakers, business leaders, academics, humanitarians, and everyday Americans engaging with the nations of Southeast Asia."
Kristie Kenney, former State Department counselor and U.S. ambassador to Thailand, the Philippines, and Ecuador

"A master practitioner has provided us with a ring-side view of how our diplomats pursue American interests in Southeast Asia.  This is must reading for aspiring Southeast Asia hands who want to familiarize themselves with American regional diplomacy.  It’s also indispensable reading for American strategists, who will ignore Ambassador Marciel’s policy prescriptions at their peril."
Dave Shear, former assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs and U.S. ambassador to Vietnam

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The United States And Southeast Asia

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Scot Marciel
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Shorenstein APARC
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Experts from academia and the policy world will discuss the ongoing human rights crisis in North Korea, with a focus on the roles of the South Korean and United States governments in addressing this issue. The conference will also explore the human rights implications of North Korea’s response to the massive coronavirus outbreak in the country as well as China’s complicity in North Korea’s human rights abuses. Against this backdrop, the event will emphasize the role that the South Korean and United States special envoys for North Korean human rights can play in engaging the North Korean regime on human rights issues. This is especially important given that the Biden administration still has yet to fill the position of a Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights—a position mandated by the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004.

Agenda

10:30 – 10:40 AM PT | Welcoming Remarks
Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair, CSIS; Vice Dean and D.S. Song KF Professor of Government, Georgetown University
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, Stanford University

10:40 – 11:50 AM PT | SESSION I : The Role of Congress and U.S. Government in North Korean Human Rights
Panelists:
Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), Co-Chair, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission; Ranking Member, Congressional-Executive Commission on China
Frank Wolf, Commissioner on the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom

Moderator:
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, Stanford University

11:50 AM – 12:00 PM PT | Break

12:00 – 1:30 PM PT | SESSION II : The Role of Special Envoys in the North Korean Human Rights Issue
Panelists:
Ambassador Shin-wha Lee, Ambassador of International Cooperation on North Korean Human Rights, Republic of Korea
Ambassador Robert King, Senior Adviser (non-resident), Korea Chair, CSIS; Former U.S. Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights

Moderator:
Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair, CSIS; Vice Dean and D.S. Song KF Professor of Government, Georgetown University

This signature event will be co-hosted with the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

Online-only

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Portraits of Myung Hwan Yu and Gi-Wook Shin with text about Oct 18 webinar on the implications of US-China competition for South Korea

This event is part of APARC’s 2022 Fall webinar seriesAsian Perspectives on the US-China Competition.

With rising Sino-U.S. tensions, South Korea has increasingly been in a difficult position to choose policy decisions that may tilt it towards one hegemon or the other. The new Yoon Administration signaled its strengthened alliance with the U.S. by attending the NATO summit and joining the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), but there are concerns that such actions run the risks of potential economic backlash from China. With increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, what diplomatic and economic options are left for South Korea? How does the domestic political environment such as the rise of anti-China sentiments and the return of pro-alliance conservatives back to power influence South Korea’s outlook on international affairs? Former South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung Hwan, in conversation with Professor Gi-Wook Shin, will discuss the South Korean perspective on the rising U.S.-China rivalry.

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Myung Hwan Yu, former foreign minister of South Korea

 Myung Hwan Yu, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of South Korea, also served as Ambassador to Israel, Japan and Philippines, and as Minister of the Permanent Mission to UN. His experience extends across a broad range of issues in international relations including trade, security and nuclear negotiations with North Korea. After his retirement from the foreign ministry, Ambassador Yu was board chairman of the Sejong University in Seoul, visiting scholar in the Korea Program at APARC; and he is currently a senior advisor at Kim & Chang Law Office.

This event is made possible by generous support from the Korea Foundation and other friends of the Korea Program.

Gi-Wook Shin

Via Zoom: Register at https://bit.ly/3LjfeMW

Myung Hwan Yu <i>former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of South Korea</i>
Seminars
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Portraits of Sinderpal Singh and Arzan Tarapore with text about a webinar on the implications of the US-China competition for South Asia.

How is India posturing to manage strategic competition in the Indian Ocean? Thus far US-China security competition has been most acute in the western Pacific, but Chinese capability growth and strategic policies suggest that it also seeks a leading role in the northern Indian Ocean, in the not-too-distant future. India has traditionally considered itself the natural dominant power in the Indian Ocean region, but it has never faced the scale and types of competition that China will present. Does India have the wherewithal to maintain its leadership in the region? How will India work with the United States, bilaterally and through groupings such as the Quad, as they seek to maintain the status quo in the face of Chinese challenges? Is the Indian Ocean bound for militarized competition, or can India, the US, and China find a pathway to strategic coexistence?

Panelist

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Headshot photograph of Dr. Sinderpal Singh
Dr. Sinderpal Singh is Senior Fellow and Assistant Director, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, and concurrently Coordinator of the South Asia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. In the fall of 2022, he has been appointed as the McCain Fulbright Scholar in Residence at the United States Naval Academy. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia with a special focus on Indian foreign policy, the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region, and India-Southeast Asia relations. He is currently writing a book on India’s role in the Indian Ocean since 1992 and is the author of India in South Asia: Domestic Identity Politics and Foreign Policy from Nehru to the BJP (Routledge 2013). He received his Ph.D. from the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, his MA from the Australian National University, and his BA from the National University of Singapore.

Moderator

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Square headshot photograph of Arzan Tarapore
Dr. Arzan Tarapore is the South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, where he leads the newly-restarted South Asia Initiative. His research focuses on military strategy, Indian defense policy, and contemporary Indo-Pacific security issues. Prior to his scholarly career, he served as an analyst in the Australian Defence Department. Arzan holds a Ph.D. in war studies from King’s College London.

This webinar is co-sponsored by the Center for South Asia

Arzan Tarapore

Virtual via Zoom Webinar

Sinderpal Singh Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, and South Asia Programme Senior Fellow, Assistant Director S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

Shorenstein APARC

Encina Hall E301

Stanford University

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2022-23
Xiao_Ren.jpg Ph.D.

Xiao Ren joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as visiting scholar for the 2022-2023 fall quarter. He serves as Professor at Fudan University, Institute of International Studies, as well as Director for the university's Center for the Study of Chinese Foreign Policy. While at APARC, he conducted research exploring ideas and ways for China and the U.S. to better manage their competition during the Biden administration and Xi Jinping's leadership.

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