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Update:  In the elections held on July 21, Hirofumi Takinami was voted in as a member of the upper house.  Takinami won the Fukui District, garnering over 70 percent of the votes, which is the largest vote margin in the history of the district.  Takinami is not only the first non-incumbent to be elected in 18 years, but also the youngest candidate ever to be elected in the district.


The forthcoming Japanese upper-house election scheduled for July 21 will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition, which returned to office last December, can gain a powerful majority in both houses of Japan’s parliament. But the election will also have a particular interest for the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Hirofumi Takinami, one of the LDP candidates for the upper house, running in the Fukui Prefecture, is a proud alum of Shorenstein APARC. Takinami spent two years (2009-2011) at Stanford as a visiting fellow in the Corporate Affiliates Program at Shorenstein APARC while he was employed in Japan’s Ministry of Finance. During his time here, he worked closely with APARC faculty, including former Ambassador to Japan and Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Dr. Michael Armacost and Dr. Phillip Lipscy, on research that focused on the political economy of the financial crises in Japan and the United States. Takinami also co-authored a paper with Dr. Lipscy comparing financial crisis response in Japan and the United States, which is forthcoming in the Japanese Journal of Political Science.      

Over the past few months, Takinami has been busy travelling all over Fukui Prefecture, which has received attention in recent years due to a city that shares its name with the current U.S. president, Obama. On some days Takinami might travel two hundred miles, visit more than ten different places, and meet a thousand people, but Takinami feels that the hard work will all be worthwhile. 

When asked what inspired him to run for office, Takinami replied:

Starting from 1989, the ruling party of Japan has been annoyed by its weak power in the upper house. Thus, the upper house has been the center of a “political war” in Japan, which was one of the major reasons for the delayed policies of Japan during the “two lost decades.” In order to regain a decisive and progressive Japan, I determined I would run for the election.

Should Takinami be successful in his campaign, his term as a member of the upper house, or sangi-in, will be six years.  Lipscy commented that Takinami’s chances for victory are very high: “Not only is Takinami well-qualified for the position, but the LDP is traditionally strong in Fukui and riding high on the popularity of Abenomics,” referring to the economic growth policies being pursued by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Should Takinami win office, we hope his experience here at Stanford will help to contribute to his goals for Japan.

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"Kishore Mahbubani is well known and well credentialed. The widely published dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore has been listed among the 'top 100 global thinkers' by Foreign Policy magazine not once but thrice—in 2005, 2010, and 2011. In praising one of Mahbubani’s books, Harvard professor Larry Summers stated that 'there is no more thoughtful observer of Asia, the United States, and their interaction than Kishore Mahbubani.'”
 
Thus begins Prof. Emmerson's review article on Mahbubani's writings, including The Great Convergence (2013).  The article continues in a different vein, however, offering a critique instead of praise.  
 
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Donald K. Emmerson
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PRC-ROK Summit Underscores Shared Interests and Common Concerns
 
 
Stanford, California
 
South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s visit to China this week attests to the magnitude and importance of geostrategic changes in Northeast Asia.  Just a few years ago, such a visit might have been widely interpreted as a sign of tension in the U.S.-ROK relationship and an attempt by Beijing to undermine the alliance.  Now it is viewed, correctly, as a natural and necessary meeting between leaders with many shared interests and common concerns, above all about the behavior and intentions of the DPRK.
 
When Presidents Park and Xi Jinping meet, each will have met recently with President Obama.  Neither will have met with Kim Jong Un since assuming their current positions.  The symbolism of this difference reflects the reality that Park, Xi, and Obama have far more shared interests than any of them has with Kim or his regime.  Indeed, key objectives of all three summits include strengthening bilateral ties and preserving peace in the world’s most dynamic region.
 
Much of the Park-Xi agenda will be devoted to economic and trade issues and opportunities, and to other bilateral and global challenges.  But both leaders recognize that North Korean actions pose the greatest threat to regional peace and the continued prosperity of their own nations.  Their discussions should, and will, devote much time and attention to what each can do, individually, jointly, and with the United States, to persuade Pyongyang to change its dangerous and counterproductive behavior.
 
After testing three nuclear devices, Pyongyang is now openly threatening the United States with a pre-emptive nuclear attack and has engaged in nuclear proliferation with a number of countries. While Pyongyang says its nuclear program is directed only against the United States, many South Koreans believe that the North’s possession of nuclear devices emboldened it to launch two deadly conventional attacks on the South in 2010. What more might Pyongyang do, they fear, if it continues on its current path?
 
North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and delivery systems because it feels threatened from all sides and judges that, unlike the South, it has no reliable ally.  But the real threat to the regime comes from within, not from without. Its misguided policies impoverish its people and prevent the DPRK from following a path of reform and opening to the outside world that has brought stability and prosperity to all of its neighbors, a path that Chinese leaders have urged on Pyongyang for over two decades. 
 
Pyongyang’s leaders seem to have deluded themselves into believing that nuclear weapons will ensure both their security and economic prosperity—even though neither Washington nor Seoul had or has any intention to attack the North, and Pyongyang has long had the functional equivalent of weapons of mass destruction in its thousands of artillery tubes pointed at Seoul. They mistakenly think that Washington will eventually tire of resisting and accept the North as a nuclear weapons state, but no American president will establish diplomatic relations and support removing sanctions on North Korea until it verifiably abandons nuclear weapons.
 
In recent weeks, North Korea has called for bilateral talks with both the United States and South Korea. While it characterized those offers as "unconditional," its own statements made it clear that it regards any talks as being premised on its being and remaining a nuclear weapons state, a condition it knows neither Washington nor Seoul can accept.
 
Before Pyongyang moves farther down a path that threatens peace and security while, ironically, achieving none of its own goals, Park, Xi, Obama, and other regional leaders must seek to persuade Kim to discard failed policies in favor of proven alternatives. At the same time, they must find ways to contain the danger his regime will pose to the region and global nonproliferation efforts until he has an epiphany.
 
President Park said this week that the upcoming Korea-China summit “comes at a more important juncture than at any other time in terms of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.”  Without question, President Park’s summit in Beijing could well be one of the most consequential global diplomatic events of the year.
 
Thomas Fingar served as the U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and chairman of the National Intelligence Council; Gi-Wook Shin is director of Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center; and David Straub is a former director of Korean affairs at the U.S. State Department.
 
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The Europe Center's 2-day multidisciplinary dialogue on migration -- the subject of great and growing consequence in the contemporary world. Conference participants from a wide range of theoretical, case-study, and comparative approaches will address the phenomenon of population movement and the experience of migration in its various qualities.

The agenda for this conference is below.

Co-sponsored by the University of Vienna, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation


 

Bechtel Conference Center

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Hana-Stanford Conference on Korea for U.S. Secondary Teachers was established at the Korean Studies Program in 2012 with the generous support of Hana Financial Group. The purpose of the conference is to bring secondary school educators from across the United States for intensive and lively sessions on a wide assortment of Korean studies-related topics ranging from U.S.-Korea relations to history, and religion to popular culture.

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After two years, North and South Korea have agreed to resume official meetings with one another. Gi-Wook Shin suggests that the North could also be interested in reopening dialogue with the United States.
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A reunification arch over the highway between Pyongyang and Panmunjom Peace Village, where the resumed inter-Korean talks will take place this week.
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China’s impressive economic growth over the last three decades and increasing political influence and military capabilities have caused people around the world to wonder or worry about how China will use its new-found power. More specifically, they wonder whether, and how, China might attempt to transform the international system that has enabled it to become the world’s second largest economy and potential contender for global leadership.

Thomas Fingar, the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, addressed these and related questions during the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s annual Oksenberg Lecture on May 22. 

After describing how China has benefitted from participation in the liberal order led and maintained by the United States, Fingar argued that China has neither the will nor the ability to lead or transform the existing system, and that its continued “rise” will increase its stake in the system and make it even less willing to seek changes that could jeopardize its own success. He also suggested that other nations benefitting from the existing order would constrain China from attempting radical change even if it wanted to.

Following Fingar’s remarks, Jia Qingguo, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, said it is important to recognize that China is in the midst of a major transition. It is both a developed and a developing country, he said.

Thomas Christensen, director of Princeton University’s China and the World Program, added that due to China’s weight in the world, it will be called on more and more to collaborate on critical global issues, such as climate change and disease.

Fingar’s keynote remarks drew on “China's Vision of World Order,” a chapter published in Strategic Asia 2012–13: China's Military Challenge (National Bureau for Asian Research), as well as Shorenstein APARC’s research initiative on China’s interactions with its neighbors.

Since 2002, Shorenstein APARC has held the Oksenberg Lecture Series as a tribute to the legacy of Michel Oksenberg, a pioneer in the field of Chinese politics and an important force in shaping American attitudes toward China.

An audio podcast of the May 22 event is available on the Shorenstein APARC website.

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Although the Japan Studies Program (JSP) was formally established in 2011, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s (Shorenstein APARC) newest addition has a rich history that equals or even exceeds that of the Center itself. The archives—through dozens of occasional and working papers, studies, photographs of landmark events, and books—reveal three vibrant decades of research on Japanese economics, industry, government, and international relations.

Japan studies took root when the Center was founded in 1983 and has evolved with the political, economic, and social changes in Japan, and with developments in U.S.-Japan relations. Under the leadership of co-founding Center director Daniel I. Okimoto, one of the earliest projects explored U.S.-Japan competition and collaboration in high-tech industries during the 1980s and 1990s. Other initiatives led to a definitive three volume comparative study of Japan’s political economy, and an exploration of the United States’ evolving ties with its Northeast Asia allies, including Japan.

Director emeritus Daniel Okimoto receives Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon, in recognition of decades of work, 2007.
Early Center activities brought together distinguished scholars, practitioners, and policymakers from Japan and the United States for fruitful interdisciplinary academic collaboration and meaningful policy dialogue, and laid the groundwork for many enduring relationships with Japanese universities, ministries, and other organizations. One of the first of such activities was the U.S.-Japan Congressional Seminar series, through which members of the U.S. Senate and the Japanese Diet met for candid, in-depth discussion on issues of mutual significance related to trade, international economic policy, industrial policy, and security.

After Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, the country underwent a range of political, economic, and social transformations. Even amidst challenges, Japan has adapted, as its firms continue to be globally competitive in many areas, and it persists as an Asian economic powerhouse; on the security front, Japan remains one of the closest allies of the United States. Emerging out of these transformations is a new Japan that offers quite a different picture from the old rapid-growth era.

The newly instituted Japan Studies Program aims to make Stanford a U.S. leader in the field of contemporary Japan studies. As an integral component of the Center, JSP facilitates multidisciplinary, social science–oriented research on contemporary Japan, emphasizing both academic scholarship and policy-relevant research. The program aims to become a central platform for Stanford students and the broader community for understanding and engaging with Japan.

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JSP actively collaborates with other organizations on campus, such as the Center for East Asian Studies (CEAS), the US-Asia Technology Management Center, and the Stanford Graduate School of Business. During the one-year anniversary of the March 11 Great Tohoku Disaster, JSP co-sponsored a lecture series with CEAS examining Japan’s growth and recovery, and it held a major conference focused on restructuring Japan’s energy industry. Since 2011, its popular lunchtime seminar series has brought numerous high-caliber guest speakers to Stanford for insightful talks on subjects ranging from cloud computing in Japan and the United States to the comeback of Japan’s conservative party and the new era of “Abenomics.”

JSP experts actively contribute to Shorenstein APARC’s publishing program of timely, policy-oriented edited volumes and working papers, and regularly contribute op-eds and journal articles to numerous leading newspapers and scholarly journals, including the Journal of East Asian Studies, Socio-Economic Review, and Energy Policy.

Looking ahead, Takeo Hoshi, who joined the Center as JSP’s director in December 2012, says, “I want to make Shorenstein APARC the first place that researchers, policymakers, business practitioners, and students visit to understand more about the Japanese economy and politics—I look forward to working with everyone at Shorenstein APARC (and beyond) to achieve this goal.” With a strong, growing core of affiliated faculty, researchers, and staff, the future for Japan studies at Stanford looks bright.

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In 2007, Daniel Okimoto, Shorenstein APARC director emeritus, received Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon, in recognition of decades of work. (Credit: courtesy Daniel Okimoto)

(l-r) Kenji Kushida, Masahiko Aoki, Kiyoshi Kurokawa, and Takeo Hoshi ( JSP director). Kurokawa, chair of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission, spoke at JSP on how the scientific community can help policymakers respond to change in a globalized world. (Credit: Wena Rosario)

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A view of Tokyo Tower and the city's vibrant skyline, September 2012.
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For almost two decades, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) produced outstanding work in Korean affairs but lacked a separate program for Korean studies; by the turn of the millennium, however, it was clear that more attention and resources needed to be devoted to Korea. Between 1960 and 1990, capitalist South Korea had risen from the devastation of the Korean War to produce an economic “miracle on the Han River,” followed soon by full democratization. In the process, it became a global model of development. Meanwhile, North Korea was pursuing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles while maintaining one of the world’s last Stalinist systems, even outlasting the Soviet Union itself despite a devastating famine in the mid-1990s, and the regime’s threats presented a major concern to policymakers. Together, the two Korean states with radically different systems, competing for hegemony on the divided Korean Peninsula, constituted an unparalleled “natural experiment” for social scientists.

Since 2001 when Gi-Wook Shin was invited to found a program within Shorenstein APARC, the Stanford Korean Studies Program (KSP) has developed into a world-renowned center offering impactful programs addressing current, policy-relevant issues and events. KSP sponsors conferences and workshops that bring together leading Korea scholars and policymakers for meaningful dialogue. Special events afford the general public the opportunity to engage with distinguished practitioners as well as emerging scholars. KSP also supports fellowships, collaborates with a broad range of visiting scholars, publishes award-winning books and reports, and offers commentary to leading media.

Amassing talent to create a premier program

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From its one-person beginning a decade ago, KSP now has faculty members in sociology, history, and literature, with two more appointments pending. In addition, KSP has two full-time staff members and a research assistant. A Korean language lecturer and a Korean Studies librarian support program activities. KSP taps into the rich array of Stanford-based faculty and senior fellows who conduct policy-related research on Korea within FSI-affiliated centers and programs, and at the neighboring Hoover Institution.

KSP has sponsored collaborative research projects on a range of Korea-related subjects. The South Korean National Assembly Project considered the generational change under way in South Korea’s government and its political and ideological implications, specifically how such changes affect Assembly votes—and Korean policy—on major issues. Other projects focus on mass media and U.S.-Korea relations, including the ROK-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum, the Korean experience of historical injustice and reconciliation, and a book series on Korean democratization sponsored by the Academy of Korean Studies. Findings from such groundbreaking projects are regularly presented at KSP seminars and conferences, and published as books and journal articles.

A next generation of scholars

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KSP is devoted to training the next generation of Korea scholars by offering courses on Korea through various academic departments, working closely with the Center for East Asian Studies, which offers an MA in East Asian studies with a specialty in Korea. A writing prize in Korean studies was created in 2012, and KSP co-sponsors a Korea internship program and convenes popular overseas seminars in Seoul, enabling Stanford undergraduates to experience Korean politics, history, and culture firsthand. In collaboration with the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education, Stanford KSP is expanding opportunities for high school students to take online courses on Korea and for U.S. secondary school teachers to bring Korean studies into their curricula.

Each year, KSP offers outstanding opportunities for fellowships and visiting scholars from Korea and elsewhere. With generous fellowship support from the Pantech Group and the Koret Foundation, KSP has hosted over 100 alumni, including two former South Korean foreign ministers, former senior officials from the United States, South Korea, and China, and leading Korea scholars and experts. These visiting scholars participate intensively in KSP research, educational, and outreach programs, and continue their association with the program after leaving Stanford through an active alumni association.

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John Everard, former British ambassador to Pyongyang and a Pantech Fellow, speaks on North Korea at the annual Koret Conference, part of the 2011 celebration of Stanford KSP’s tenth anniversary. (Credit: Rod Searcey)

Students from Seoul’s Hana Academy perform traditional Korean music for participants of the Hana-Stanford Conference on Korea. (Credit: Rod Searcey)

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A sunset view of Seoul, Korea's capital city and a thriving metropolis, December 2006.
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