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Huijun Gu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for the 2015-16 year as a visiting scholar from Jiangsu Administration Institute, where he serves as an associate professor.

His research interests include Planning (规划) and Governance, industrial upgrading and government behavior.

Huijun Gu obtained his Ph.D. at Nanjing University in 2013, focusing on organizational behavior.

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Sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project and the U.S. Asia Security Initiative at the Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC)

Abstract

During the recent meeting between PRC President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, the “1992 One China Consensus” served as a mutually acceptable paradigm for maintaining “peaceful and stable” conditions across the Taiwan Strait.  For Xi Jinping, the warmth of the visit thinly veiled a message to Taiwan’s leaders and electorate, as well as to onlookers in Washington.  Chinese officials and media clearly link the talks and confirmation of the 1992 Consensus to “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”—a concept that is increasingly unpalatable to many in Taiwan.  Xi hopes to keep DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (and perhaps even future KMT leaders) in the 1992 Consensus “box” and to co-opt the U.S. in this effort, but perhaps underestimates the political transformation underway on Taiwan. 

The Xi administration has also hardened its position regarding “core interests” such as Taiwan, embodied in a “bottom line principle” policy directive that eschews compromise.  Although many commentators and most officials across the region have shied away from stating that the PRC and Taiwan are at the crossroads of crisis, the collision of political transformation on Taiwan and the PRC’s “bottom line principle” will challenge the fragile foundations of peaceful cross-Strait co-existence.  Changes in the regional balance of military power brought about by a more muscular People’s Liberation Army compounds the potential for increased friction, providing Beijing with more credible options for coercion and deterrence.

This talk will consider the politics and principles involved in cross-Taiwan Strait relations in light of the upcoming 2016 Taiwan elections and the policies of the Xi Jinping administration; and will discuss some of the possible implications for China’s national security policy, regional stability, and the future of cross-Strait relations.

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Cortez Cooper
Mr. Cortez A. Cooper III joined RAND in April 2009, providing assessments of security challenges across political, military, economic, cultural, and informational arenas for a broad range of U.S. government clients.  Prior to joining RAND, Mr. Cooper was the Director of the East Asia Studies Center for Hicks and Associates, Inc.  He has also served in the U.S. Navy Executive Service as the Senior Analyst for the Joint Intelligence Center Pacific, U.S. Pacific Command.  As the senior intelligence analyst and Asia regional specialist in the Pacific Theater, he advised Pacific Command leadership on trends and developments in the Command’s area of responsibility.  Before his Hawaii assignment, Mr. Cooper was a Senior Analyst with CENTRA Technology, Inc., specializing in Asia-Pacific political-military affairs.  Mr. Cooper’s 20 years of military service included assignments as both an Army Signal Corps Officer and a China Foreign Area Officer.  In addition to numerous military decorations, the Secretary of Defense awarded Mr. Cooper with the Exceptional Civilian Service Award in 2001.

2016 Taiwan Elections and Implications for Cross-Strait and Regional Security
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Cortez Cooper Senior International Policy Analyst RAND Corporation
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Distrust between the United States and China continues to grow in Northeast Asia. Among many contributing factors, the North Korea issue is one of the most important, as illustrated by the controversy over the possible deployment of the United States’ THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. Thus, resolving or mitigating the Korea problem, a significant goal in its own right to both the United States and China, is also essential to reducing U.S.-PRC (People's Republic of China) strategic distrust. China and the United States share long-term interests vis-à-vis the Korean peninsula. The question is how its resolution might be achieved. U.S. efforts to induce North Korea to abandon its nuclear and missile programs by offering incentives and imposing sanctions have failed, and Chinese attempts to encourage Pyongyang to adopt PRC-style economic reforms have not fared much better. With Washington, Beijing, and Pyongyang unlikely to change their approaches, the hope for any new initiative must rest with Seoul. South Korea’s special relationships with the North, the United States, and the PRC, along with its status as a dynamic middle power, give it the potential to play a larger leadership role in dealing with North Korea. In doing so, South Korea should consult with the United States and China on a long-term strategy for inter-Korean reconciliation that would, for now, finesse the nuclear issue. Such a strategy would require U.S. and Chinese support of the South Korean leadership in addressing the Korea problem. The process of working together with Seoul to formulate and implement this strategy would allow both powers to ensure that their long-term interests on the peninsula are respected. Although there is no guarantee that such an effort will succeed, the worsening situation on and around the Korean peninsula and the U.S. and PRC’s lack of progress all argue for this new approach, as do the potential benefits to the U.S.-PRC relationship.

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China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies
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Gi-Wook Shin
David Straub
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A version of this paper, "Security Challenges in a Turbulent World: Fewer Enemies, More Challenges, and Greater Anxiety," delivered at the International Areas Studies Symposium at the University of Okalhoma, on Feb. 26, 2015, is also available in English by clicking here.

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Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University
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Thomas Fingar
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Li Shanyou joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as a visiting scholar for the 2015-16 year.  He is an Adjunct Professor of Entrepreneurship and Executive Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurship and Investment at CEIBS. He joined CEIBS on September 1, 2011. Prior to that, in 2006, he founded Ku6.com Inc. In June of 2010, he led the company to be the first China video site independently listed on NASDAQ. Before starting his own business, he was the Senior Vice President and Editor-in-Chief of Sohu.com Inc.

Mr. Li, who graduated from Nan Kai University with a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, enrolled in CEIBS EMBA programme in 2004. He is striving to combine traditional Chinese philosophy – of which he has a deep understanding – with modern enterprise management theories to form a unique Chinese style modern leadership model. His past practices and theoretical thoughts are outlined in the book Lectures on Management – Attaining Accomplishment in Both Self-Cultivation and Leadership Positions.

Mr. Li’s rich and dynamic business and management experience began as early as 1994. He has, at different times, held various Human Resources executive positions in companies like Motorola (Tianjin) Inc., Alcoa Inc., Bausch & Lomb Inc., Sohu.com Inc., etc.  In 2001, he transferred to a new position in Sohu.com Inc: Editor-in-Chief. In that role he successfully helped Sohu News recover from rough times, and he was later promoted to Senior Vice President. In 2006, he resigned from Sohu.com Inc. after reaching a new peak in his career, and founded Ku6.com Inc. Under his management, Ku6.com Inc. became the first Chinese media video site to be listed on overseas stock markets. In March 2011, Mr. Li decided to leave Ku6.com Inc. to pursue a new chapter of his career as an educator; he joined CEIBS as an Entrepreneurial Studies Professor. Over the past 18 years, he has accumulated various experiences and lessons in HR Management, Internet and Media Management, Venture Development as well as the Mergers and Acquisition fields. 

Mr. Li is a seasoned public speaker and trainer. He has lectured more than ten management courses, and was named among “Beijing’s Top 10 Trainers.” His outstanding public speaking and training skills have been well received by many students. He is among those conferred with the Award of 2010 China’s Top Ten CEOs, One Hundred Most Influential Celebrities in Chinese Online Media in the Past Decade, 2010 Most Influential Leader of New Media Era in China etc.

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Two key challenges facing Northeast Asia are how to tame the power of nationalism and create shared memories of history, Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin wrote in The Diplomat

Shin, director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), urged action on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. Northeast Asians should use the commemoration as an “opportune occasion to reflect on their unfortunate past to learn lessons,” only then can the region become more peaceful and prosperous.

Shin and Daniel Sneider, Shorenstein APARC’s associate director for research, lead the Divided Memories and Reconciliation research project which examines memories of the wartime experience in Northeast Asia and what steps can be taken to reconcile disputes over history.

One of their latest outcomes is the book Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies (April 2015), edited with University of Washington professor Daniel Chirot, that studies how wartime narratives are interpreted, memorialized and used in Europe and Asia.

The full article in The Diplomat can be accessed by clicking here.

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Men dressed as Japanese imperial army soldiers march at the Yasukuni Shrine in August 2011, on the anniversary of the end of World War II.
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Shuichiro Nishioka joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2015-16 academic year from the West Virginia University’s Department of Economics where he serves as an Associate Professor.

His research covers the broad issues on International Trade, Economic Development, and East Asian Economies. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, Nishioka will conduct research projects on the expanding inequality in China and Japan.

Nishioka previously affiliated for research and teaching at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, the University of Pittsburgh and Hitotsubashi University. He contributes to articles to publications including the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Development Economics, and European Economic Review.

Nishioka holds a PhD and an MA in Economics from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and a BA in Economics from Yokohama National University. 

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Writing recently for the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), Stanford scholar Donald Emmerson analyzed China’s stance on the South China Sea in the context of remarks given by Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi at a bilateral dialogue in Washington, D.C. on June 24.

In the past year, China has unsettled many countries with its island-building campaign in the disputed South China Sea, an area that has multiple claimants and whose waters are heavily used for international trade and commerce. Johnson South Reef, for example, is being enlarged and turned into what could be a military base. At the same time, China’s leaders continue to disregard rising demands to clarify their intentions in the South China Sea.

In the CSIS article, Emmerson offered an “edited" version of Yang’s statement to provide one reading of its “useful ambiguity” for China.

Emmerson said China’s participation is inevitably required to resolve the maritime disputes. But his reading of Yang’s remarks is not encouraging in that respect, as China behaves more and more as if it were part of the problem not the solution.

The full article is accessible on the CSIS blog, http://cogitasia.com/?s=emmerson.

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry listens as Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi delivers remarks at the Strategic Track Oceans Meeting in Washington, D.C., on June 24, 2015.
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Stanford sociologist Andrew Walder spoke with Ian Johnson of the New York Times about his new book, China Under Mao: A Revolution Derailed. Featured in a Q&A, Walder argues that Mao Zedong led Communist China based more on a simplistic understanding of Stalinist ideology than on a new vision. Walder also compares Mao and current president Xi Jinping.

Of Xi, "He’s adopting some of the symbolism of Mao in the Cultural Revolution," Walder said.

"What Xi is about is unity and stability and economic development, and that’s not what Mao was about. Mao was willing to throw things to the wind. He was willing to gamble. He never thought things could happen if it was orderly. He thought disorder was the midwife of progress. Xi is completely different."

The article can be accessed on the New York Times website.

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China's Communist Party academies are drawing upon new ideas from formerly taboo places like business schools in the United States and Europe and sending delegations to absorb lessons from around the world, a Stanford scholar writes in a new book.

Once viewed as inflexible, China's party-managed training academies, or "party schools," are using many of the strategies found in China's hybrid, state-run private sector, said Charlotte Lee, associate director of the China Program at Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

"As communist parties fell from power in the 1980s and 1990s, there were many predictions of the Chinese Communist Party's demise," Lee said in an interview.

A perception exists, she said, that the party was too rigid to remain relevant and in power, given huge economic changes in China and throughout a more globalized world. But adapting is one way that it has managed to dominate for so long.

The Chinese Communist Party has now ruled China for more than six decades.

Signs of change 

"It is true that if you were to look at official party organization charts, many parts of the Chinese Communist Party are unchanged from the party's early years in power," Lee said. "Yet it is clear that the party has embraced new ideas and opened up to the world in recent decades."

The party schools are important, Lee explained, because they are a key set of organizations that exert political control over the knowledge, skills and careers of leaders throughout Chinese society.

In her new book, Training the Party: Party Adaptation and Elite Training in Reform-era China, Lee concludes that those seemingly static parts of the party have adjusted and that it is no longer "revolutionary," but has become, in its own words, a "learning party."

Lee's 264-page work draws on field research, datasets and trips to the party-run academies where party recruits and elites are trained.

Through conversations with people at the academy campuses she visited around the country Lee discovered the extent to which the schools, and the party, were changing.

For example, the schools are using as one of their core teaching methods the case method approach pioneered by Harvard Business School, which Lee described as a "force of inspiration" for the students.

As a sign of another change, Lee noted that the schools, once almost shrouded in secrecy from the rest of society, are now renting out their office parks to other organizations as a way to raise revenue.

"They are opening up in more than one way," Lee said, adding that the overall process began in the 1980s and accelerated in 2005 when China established state-of-the-art executive leadership academies that required a more legitimate educational approach. 

Organizational machinery

The success of the Chinese economy and market, as well as the rush for revenue and status by many people and organizations in the country, spurred the academies to change. Lee said the party schools are dynamic and entrepreneurial in the way they seek out new student populations and craft new programs, both educational and political.

"This shows how the party's organizational machinery has been more nimble than some would have predicted," she said.

Yet to be seen is whether the revised party-school approach is enough to turn around the larger Chinese Communist Party or deal with the problem of rampant political corruption in the country.

"There's some evidence of new organizational thinking in the party schools, but it is unclear whether this will help with resolving China's corruption problem or spark genuine democratic reform," Lee said.

While eight other political parties technically exist in China, there is no true opposition to the Chinese Communist Party.

Lee began her book while a political science doctoral student at Stanford.

Looking ahead, she is studying how China's education landscape is evolving and how China is constructing new international organizations, like the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, that reflect its long-term global ambitions.

She asks, "To what degree might these organizations challenge or supplement the existing global order and how might the U.S. respond intelligently?"

Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

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China's national emblem sits atop the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
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