Donald Trump continues to unnerve capitals and feed a media drumbeat about impending war in Korea with his vague warnings, in interviews and tweets, of “major, major conflict” on the horizon. But the reality of American policy is best captured in a comment by the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, to her Chinese counterpart at a White House gathering last week. Haley turned to the Chinese Ambassador, an attendee told a reporter, and said “something like, ‘We look to you to solve this for us.’”
Uncertainty about U.S. intentions in Northeast Asia has increased fear that events could spin out of control in the region due to American disengagement. That engagement cannot be taken for granted, Shorenstein Fellow Thomas Fingar writes on the Stanford University Press blog, and it remains to be seen just how well regional political leaders adjust to the Trump administration’s evolving foreign policy.
Uneasy Partnerships presents the analysis and insights of practitioners and scholars who have shaped and examined China's interactions with key Northeast Asian partners. Using the same empirical approach employed in the companion volume, The New Great Game (Stanford University Press, 2016), this new text analyzes the perceptions, priorities, and policies of China and its partners to explain why dyadic relationships evolved as they have during China's "rise."
Synthesizing insights from an array of research, Uneasy Partnerships traces how the relationships that formed between China and its partner states—Japan, the Koreas, and Russia—resulted from the interplay of competing and compatible objectives, as well as from the influence of third-country ties. These findings are used to identify patterns and trends and to develop a framework that can be used to illuminate and explain Beijing's engagement with the rest of the world.
President Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping last week at Mar-a-Lago for their first meeting which set out to address economic, trade and security challenges shared between the two countries. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) experts offered analysis of the summit to various media outlets.
In advance of the summit, Donald K. Emmerson, an FSI senior fellow emeritus and director of the Southeast Asia Program, wrote a commentary piece urging the two leaders to prioritize the territorial disputes in the South China Sea in their discussions. He also suggested they consider the idea of additional “cooperative missions” among China, the United States and other countries in that maritime area.
“A consensus to discuss the idea at that summit may be unreachable,” Emmerson recognized in The Diplomat Magazine. “But merely proposing it should trigger some reactions, pro or con. The airing of the idea would at least incentivize attention to the need for joint activities based on international law and discourage complacency in the face of unilateral coercion in violation of international law.”
Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow in Shorenstein APARC’s Korea Program, spoke to the Boston Herald about U.S. policy toward North Korea and a potential role for China in pressuring North Korea to hold talks about denuclearization. She addressed the purported reports that the National Security Council is considering as options placing nuclear weapons in South Korea and forcibly removing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un from power.
“The two options have been on the long list of possible options for a long time and they have generally been found to have far too many downsides,” Stephens said in the interview.
Writing for Tokyo Business Today, Daniel Sneider, the associate director for research at Shorenstein APARC, offered an assessment of the summit. He argued that two events - the U.S. airstrike on an airbase in Syria following the regime's chemical weapons attack and the leaked reports about tensions between White House staff - shifted the summit agenda and sidelined, at least for now, talk of a trade war between China and the United States.
“Instead of a bang, the Mar-a-Lago summit ended with a whimper,” Sneider wrote in the analysis piece (available in English and Japanese). “On the economy, the summit conversation was remarkably business-as-usual, with President Trump calling for China to ‘level the playing field’ and a vague commitment to speed up the pace of trade talks. When it came to North Korea…the two leaders reiterated long-standing goals of denuclearization but ‘there was no kind of a package arrangement discussed to resolve this.”
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U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping upon his arrival on April 6, 2017, to West Palm Beach, Florida.
A Chinese flag and American flag fly on a lamp post along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in Washington during Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit, January 18, 2011.
The Thucydides Trap is real. Whether China’s rising power leads to conflict or cooperation is up to us. Whether the gears of our two nations grind or mesh depends on the effort and creativity we put into the endeavor. The question is how to avoid the trap. American diplomacy with China is dated. U.S exceptionalism and sense of superiority sometimes undermines our good intentions. U.S.’ views tend to be short term, unfocused, and pre-occupied with ad hoc developments elsewhere in the world. The U.S. government needs a much better long-term framework or strategy that deals with the China reality. So far, the U.S. and China have avoided major controversy. However, as China continues to grow and establish itself as a dominant world power, the U.S. must be more creative and willing to take increasingly thoughtful and considered risks.
Max Sieben Baucus is the former U.S. Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (2014-2017) and a former U.S. Senator from Montana (1978-2014). On January 7, 2014 U.S. President Barack Obama nominated Max Sieben Baucus to be Ambassador of the United States of America to the People's Republic of China. He served as Ambassador from February 21, 2014 until January 19, 2017. Ambassador Baucus formerly served as the senior United States Senator from Montana from 1978 to 2014 and was Montana’s longest serving U.S. Senator as well as the third longest tenure among those serving in the U.S. Senate. Senator Baucus was Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Finance, Vice Chairman of the joint Committee on Taxation, member of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, and a member of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (Super committee). Before his election to the U.S. Senate, he represented Montana in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1975 to 1978. Ambassador Baucus has extensive experience in international trade. As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, he led the passage and enactment of the Free Trade Agreements with 11 countries: Australia, Bahrain, Jordan, Chile, Colombia, Morocco, Oman, Panama, Peru, Singapore and South Korea. He also was deeply involved in orchestrating the congressional approval of permanent normal trade relations with China in 2000 and in facilitating China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization in 2001. Ambassador Baucus was also the chief architect of the Affordable Health Care Act (ACA), which was signed into law on March 23, 2009. Ambassador Baucus earned a bachelor’s and law degree from Stanford University. He is married to Melodee Hanes and they have three children and one granddaughter.
The Oksenberg Lecture, held annually, honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001). A senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Professor Oksenberg served as a key member of the National Security Council when the United States normalized relations with China, and consistently urged that the United States engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.
At times beginning in 2009 the decision was made to expand this series from its original lecture format to a workshop in order to bring scholars and policy makers together to discuss the ever-changing role China is playing in today's world. This new format allows for the exchange of ideas and opinions amongst today's top experts.
For directions to the Black Community Services Center, please click here.
Black Community Services Center
418 Santa Teresa Street
Stanford, CA 94305
Max Baucus
<i>U.S. Ambassador to the People's Republic of China (2014-2017), U.S. Senator Montana (1978-2014) </i>
Michael H. Armacost
<i>Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and the Philippines, Shorenstein APARC Fellow, Stanford University</i>
Kathleen Stephens
<i>Former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea; William J. Perry Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University</i>
Daniel R. Russel
<i>Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Diplomat in Residence and Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute</i>
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced in Seoul “the policy of strategic patience has ended” and “all options were on the table” regarding the United States’ efforts to address the North Korean nuclear threat. Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Fellow in Shorenstein APARC’s Korea Program, spoke on PBS NewsHour about Tillerson’s remarks, the viability of tougher sanctions against North Korea, and deployment of the U.S. ballistic missile defense system (THAAD) to South Korea.
The China Program at Shorenstein APARC is celebrating its Tenth Anniversary with a conference on "China's Possible Futures."
Many perceive China as arriving at a critical juncture in its political, economic and social maturation. It strives to avoid the “middle income trap,” retain its one-party rule, and preempt social instability. While the past can never predict the future, the China Program will gather together renowned scholars, thought leaders, and policymakers to take stock of where China is now, evaluate its remarkable successes, and consider likely scenarios as it enters another crucial transition point in its social, economic and political maturation. What assumptions might still hold, what strategies may still work, which are no longer viable, and what new factors must be regarded in considering China’s potential “futures”? The conference will explore four sub-themes: (1) China’s economic future; (2) political future; (3) China’s international relations and global economic engagements; and (4) China’s future as seen in comparative perspective.
Please note that our anniversary conference will launch on May 11 with our annual Oksenberg Conference/Lecture. In this time of great political uncertainty in both the U.S. and in China, former Ambassador Max Baucus will give the keynote address followed by a panel discussion on U.S.-China relations. You may RSVP for the Oksenberg Lecture here.
Agenda
Panel I: China’s Economic Future ~9:00 AM -10:45 AM
Chair: Andrew Walder (Stanford University)
Barry Naughton (U.C. San Deigo)
Karen Eggleston (Stanford Univerity)
Hongbin Li (Stanford University)
Mary Gallagher (University of Michigan)
Panel II: China’s Political Future ~11:00 AM - 12:30 PM
Chair: Thomas Fingar (Stanford University)
Alice Miller (Stanford University)
Andrew Wedeman (Georgia State University)
Jean Oi (Stanford University)
Xueguang Zhou (Stanford University)
Panel III: China's International Relations and Global Economic Engagements ~1:45 PM - 3:15 PM
616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
(650) 723-2408
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xufengwu@stanford.edu
xufeng_wu.jpg
Ph.D.
Xufeng Wu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2017-18 academic year from Heilongjiang Financial Office in Harbin, China, where he serves as the Director.
His research interests on utilization and management study of government’s foreign loans in China’s agriculture field; the source of funds for agriculture supporting and characteristics under the system of Public finance; external governance countermeasure study on local government financing platform and human resources selection and management study in modern service industry. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, Xufeng will participate in an empirical study of administrative and fiscal reforms in China. He was a post-doctoral researcher in Corporation Law from Jilin University in China. He holds a PhD in Agricultural Economic Management from Northeast Agriculture University in China, an Msc in Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations from the University of Manchester in the UK, an MA in international Business Management from the University of Bradford in the UK, and a BEc in international finance from the University of Nankai University in China.
The Institute for Public Policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) is soliciting papers for a workshop, “Reforming Public Hospitals in China: Emerging Models and Policy Options,” held in Hong Kong from Aug. 24-25, 2017. The workshop, led by an organizing committee with Shorenstein APARC’s Karen Eggleston, will result in an edited volume or a special issue of China Policy Journal, a new open access journal by the Policy Studies Organization.
Both quantitative and qualitative papers are welcomed; priority will be given to research that focuses on policy intervention of a specific locality or compares practices of multiple local initiatives. Selected paper presenters will receive economy airfare and accommodation paid for by HKUST’s Institute for Public Policy.
Abstract submissions should be 300 words in length and provide a summary of the paper’s main arguments and conclusions. The deadline for submission is April 15, 2017, to Eliza Tang at eliza@ust.hk.
For more information, please click to view the PDF below.
A Chinese flag and American flag fly on a lamp post along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in Washington during Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit, January 18, 2011.
