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After his secret meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in March, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is set to meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on April 27 at Peace House, south of the military demarcation line. This would make Kim Jong-un the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea since the Korean War. A panel of Korea experts will engage in discussion about outcomes and implications of this historic summit.

Panelists:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC; Senior Fellow at FSI; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

Kathleen Stephens, William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea

Philip Yun, Executive Director and Chief Operation Officer of Ploughshares Fund; former vice president at The Asia Foundation

Yong Suk Lee (moderator), Deputy Director of Korea Program, Shorenstein APARC; SK Center Fellow at FSI, Stanford University

 

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On April 5th, 2018, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center held its annual Oksenberg Conference, honoring the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg.

This year’s conference was organized around the publication of Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County.

Jean Oi, director of the China Program at APARC and co-editor of Zouping Revisited, talked with the Stanford News Service about Zouping and what it tells us about China and international relations. Read the conversation >>

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"Moon's proposal of a trilateral summit between the two Koreas and the United States, undermining China's influence, turned out to be nothing more than a pipe dream," said researchers at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in a recently published article. "The series of summits that began with Kim's visit to Beijing should lead to Four Party Talks involving the two Koreas, the United States, and China."

The full article in The Diplomat is available here.

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President Moon of South Korea meeting at Cheong Wa Dae with Mr. Kim Yong-nam of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea
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On April 5th, 2018, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center will hold the annual Oksenberg Conference, which honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg. A renowned China scholar and senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC, Professor Oksenberg served as a key member of President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Council, guiding the United States towards normalized relations with China and consistently urging that the U.S. engage with Asia in a more considered manner.

This year, the conference is organized around the publication of Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County. Zouping, a county in Shandong province, was first opened to Western researchers in 1984 through the efforts of Michel Oksenberg. The book is based upon the research notes he left behind, supplemented by new research by his own students and their students.

Jean Oi, director of the China Program at APARC and co-editor of Zouping Revisited, sat down to discuss the conference, the book, as well as her mentor and colleague Michel “Mike” Oksenberg.

This book is going to be the focal point for the Oksenberg Conference this year. What can we expect to hear there?

The Oksenberg Conference is our biggest annual event. This year, we have a great opportunity to discuss not only the actual changes that have occurred in China, but to also talk about how China research itself has changed.

Many younger researchers take for granted the ability to get concrete information about China.  But the opening of China fieldwork and actually interviewing the political actors at different levels of the system was not a given.  A lot of scholars are now caught up by big data sets, but fieldwork allow us to understand the context in which all this information comes out of.

When Mike’s team was thinking about establishing a research site in Zouping, they needed to first run some reconnaissance. They had to determine if this was a real window onto rural China; they didn't want a Potemkin village.

The villages in the county had never hosted foreigners. There was no place for the researchers to live. One of the first researchers lived in the office of the Party Secretary! And, for his showers, he went into the closed courtyard where villagers standing on ladders poured buckets of water over him. I don’t want to call it primitive, but they were clearly not set up for us.

Tell us a little about how you came to be involved in the Zouping research project.

I became involved because I was a doctoral student of Michel Oksenberg, one of the “Michigan Mafia”, as many of us China Specialists trained by Mike at the University of Michigan are known. But the competition to do reserach there was a national one and we had scholars from around the country in the project.

By the time the project started in the late 1980s, I was already teaching and Mike and I worked together in Zouping for a number of years--we sometimes even did interviews together. Amazingly enough, later, I ended up at Stanford as a faculty member alongside Mike.

But in 2000, I got a phone call from Mike, telling me he had cancer and that his time was short. He was clearly very upset, and so was I when I heard the news. But then Mike said, “You have to finish the Zouping volume for me. The one thing I really regret is not finishing this research project.” That's a request you can't turn down.

This volume, Zouping Revisited: Adaptive Governance in a Chinese County, with contributions by two generations of Mike’s students, fulfills our promise to him.

This is the second volume that collects research about Zouping county. Why should Americans be interested in Zouping?

Zouping County was the first site that opened for American scholars to do field research in China. Prior to the opening of Zouping, China was still mostly closed to foreigners. Zouping allowed us to go inside the system, see how things are done, talk to the people doing them, and see how all that changes over time and what the impact of those change are—things we could never do from the outside. For instance, everybody knows there's been economic change in China. But what have been the political consequences for governance? In other words, how does Zouping county’s government and the Party adapt to all this economic change?

It is often said that China’s political system never changed, and it's true; if you just look at the organization charts, then the system appears to have never changed. But conducting long-term research in Zouping allowed us to see how the government actually works, and what we found was that, while from the outside the organization might still look the same, the way it actually operated was vastly different. Institutions have adapted inside—in the substance, in the procedures.

Being able to discover and understand all of this takes going back to the same county, going in and interviewing people, continuously probing for the answers to our questions. Zouping gives us the ability to do that, and that is why it is so important.

The book looks often at how economic change has impacted governance. I’d like to turn that equation around and ask about President Xi. What impact has his presidency had on Zouping county?

The changes that have been coming out of China from the latest Congress meetings are significant and far reaching. It will take some time to digest all of them.  But looking at the anti-corruption campaign that has been ongoing for 5 years, I hear from a lot of people that local officials are so scared that they are essentially sitting on their hands, rather than risk getting caught for doing something wrong. This fear is highly problematic, given that local officials have been the driving force behind the growth that China has experienced recently.

Last year, for its tenth anniversary, the China Program held a conference contemplating the impact of these changes. We’re working on a volume that collects the research presented at that conference; but as always, I think I still need to go back to Zouping to really understand the impact of the many changes that have just been announced in China!

In closing, I’d like to circle back to Michel Oksenberg. What do you believe Mike would think of the book?

I actually think he would like it. Mike was interested in how things worked, how things changed, how people and organizations coped.  He has a famous article about how “cadres got along and ahead."

And so, I think we probed deeply enough, dug out a lot of "unobvious" material, and figured out how China’s institutions actually operate and change. That's what Mike always wanted us to do. So, in that sense, I think he would say we’ve succeeded.

 


Register to attend the Oksenberg Conference. Registration is still open, but seats are filling fast.


 

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The 10th Annual Koret Workshop

The aim of this year's workshop is to assess the current situation surrounding North Korea, and to examine all possible options for dealing with North Korea, from military intervention, containment, or sanctions to diplomatic engagement.

The annual Koret Workshop is made possible through the generous support of the Koret Foundation.

Stanford University

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Under the guidance of the Aspen Institute Congressional Program, thirteen members of Congress convened at Stanford University from March 2-5 to discuss policy options regarding the current North Korea crisis. The representatives deliberated with scholars and practitioners to acquire a better understanding of North Korea and its ruling regime, review the regional actors and their interests, assess the range of potential solutions to the crisis, and determine the role of Congress on this issue.

A report summarizing the program’s dialogue is now available for download. In addition to providing non-attributed comments from the proceedings, the document also includes the itinerary for the three days, the names of participants, as well as a collection of relevant publications.

The Aspen Institute Congressional Program was established in 1983 by former U.S. Senator Dick Clark. The program is for members of the United States Congress, and is both nongovernmental and nonpartisan in design. The program gives senators and representatives the opportunity to delve into complex and critical public policy issues with internationally recognized experts. Lawmakers are given the opportunity to explore policy alternatives in off-the-record settings, while simultaneously building relationships crucial to finding solutions.

 

 

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"Xi Jinping now owns the idea [of the One Belt One Road Initiative]....It has now been written into China’s constitution; its identified with him… If it works, he gets credit; if it doesn't get work out, he’s on the end of the branch, all by himself." - Tom Fingar

On March 13, 2018, APARC Distinguished Fellow Tom Fingar sat down with moderator Markos Kounalakis of the Hoover Instritution for a World Affairs Council sponsored talk.

Fingar spoke before an audience on China's One Belt One Road Initiative, the bariers to its sucess, what it could mean for China, as well as what it could mean for the countries included in China's vision.

The conversation is now avalable online.

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In a flurry of developments that left experts stunned, the long-stalled Korean peace train has suddenly left the station. Sitting in the locomotive is the engineer of these events, North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong Un.

Where is the peace train headed? No one really knows. It can easily be derailed. And it could lead not to peace, but to war, writes Sneider.

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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a project of breathtaking scale that aims to reshape economic geography and enhance China’s centrality in the world.  Estimates for the costs of infrastructure to create a sea and land network linking more than 60 countries from Asia to Europe run upwards of US $6 trillion.  To date, China has committed several hundred billion yuan and created financial institutions to carry out the Belt and Road vision, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund, alongside the China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank, and state-owned commercial banks. 

Does China have the financial wherewithal to implement this grand scheme?

This talk examines China’s recent development and places the BRI in the long arc of fiscal expansion since the turn of the century.  Under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the government spent lavishly on boosting public services, especially in the rural areas, using buoyant revenues that grew from ¥1.34 trillion to ¥8.3 trillion during the decade of 2000-2010.  The BRI is a signature program in Xi Jinping’s assertive foreign policy, likewise conceived in an era of high growth and high foreign reserve accumulation.  What happens when China’s growth slows?  Will China’s fiscal institutions be robust enough to manage the transition and avoid overextending its finances under the BRI?


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Christine Wong is Professor of Chinese Studies in the Asia Institute and Director of the Centre for Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne. Prior to joining the University of Melbourne, she was Professor of Public Finance and Director of Chinese Studies at the University of Oxford, where she was a Fellow at Lady Margaret Hall. She has also held the Henry M. Jackson Professorship in International Studies at the University of Washington, and taught economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz; University of California, Berkeley; and Mount Holyoke College. Christine has more than twenty years of experience in working with the Ministry of Finance and State Tax Administration in China. She has held senior staff positions in the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and worked extensively with other international development agencies including the IMF, OECD, UNDP, UNICEF, and the UK Department for International Development. She is a member of the OECD Advisory Panel on Budgeting and Public Expenditures.

Christine Wong <i>Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Centre for Contemporary Chinese Studies, University of Melbourne</i>
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Despite recent reductions in prevalence, China still faces a substantial tuberculosis (TB) burden, with future progress dependent on the ability of rural providers to appropriately detect and refer TB patients for further care. This study (a) provides a baseline assessment of the ability of rural providers to correctly manage presumptive TB cases; (b) measures the gap between provider knowledge and practice and; (c) evaluates how ongoing reforms of China’s health system—characterized by a movement toward “integrated care” and promotion of initial contact with grassroots providers—will affect the care of TB patients.

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