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In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and with the advent of a new Japanese government, the long-simmering concept of an East Asian Community has come to a boil. Trilateral discussions among China, Japan, and South Korea--the "Plus Three"--have accelerated, including early steps toward formation of a trilateral free trade area. The Obama administration has responded with new interest in regionalism, including discussion of new trans-Pacific trade agreements and a bid to join the budding East Asia Summit process. In November 2010, the trans-Pacific APEC convened in Japan, and the next annual meeting, in 2011, will take place in Hawaii.

This period could shape the future of regionalism in East Asia, but many questions have yet to be answered. On September 9 and 10, 2010, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University convened the second Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue. This distinguished gathering discussed the latest research into the course of regionalism across several dimensions: regional vs. trans-Pacific trade and production networks; traditional and nontraditional security; the intersection of historical memories and national cultures in forging, or thwarting, a new regional identity; and possible futures for the regional order and how it might interact with other transnational institutions. The final summary report from this event is now available online.

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Ton Nu Thi Ninh, president of Triet-Vet University, and Andrew MacIntyre, dean of the College of Asia and the Pacific at Australian National University, during a moderated public discussion at Shorenstein APARC’s annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue in September 2010.
Sarah Lin Bhatia
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In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and with the advent of a new Japanese government, the long-simmering concept of an East Asian Community (EAC) has come to a boil. Trilateral discussions among China, Japan, and South Korea--the "Plus Three"--have accelerated, including early steps toward formation of a trilateral free trade area. The Obama administration has responded with new interest in regionalism, including discussion of new trans-Pacific trade agreements and a bid to join the budding East Asia Summit process. In November 2010, the trans-Pacific APEC will convene in Japan, and the next annual meeting, in 2011, will take place in Hawaii.

This period could shape the future of regionalism in East Asia, but many questions have yet to be answered. Will former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's initiative to build a new regional order on the core of Japan-China-ROK ties bear fruit? How does this concept of an EAC compare to other visions of regional integration, from APEC to the ASEAN-plus process? Will the ASEAN member nations cede leadership of the drive for tighter integration to Northeast Asia? Will the gravitational power of China's booming economy overwhelm concerns about its political system, military nontransparency, and possible ambition for regional hegemony? What role will the United States seek to play in Asian regionalism, and what will Asia's response be?

On September 9 and 10, 2010, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) at Stanford University convened the second Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue. This distinguished gathering discussed the latest research into the course of regionalism across several dimensions: regional vs. trans-Pacific trade and production networks; traditional and nontraditional security; the intersection of historical memories and national cultures in forging, or thwarting, a new regional identity; and possible futures for the regional order and how it might interact with other transnational institutions.

The goal of the Dialogue was to facilitate discussion, on an off-the-record basis, among scholars, policymakers, media, and other experts from across Asia and the United States, and to establish trans-Asian networks that focus on issues of common concern.

The first Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue was held September 10-11, 2009, in Kyoto, on the theme of "Energy, Environment, and Economic Growth in Asia."

Kyoto International Community House Event Hall
2-1 Torii-cho, Awataguchi,
Sakyo-ku Kyoto, 606-8536
JAPAN

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Shequ are new institutions in China's rural areas--reorganization of villages resulting in the movement and relocation of rural populations. Jean C. Oi, director of the Stanford China Program and an expert on rural politics in China, recently spoke at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies about the implications of this phenomena for China's rural inhabitants and central-local government relations.
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Jean C. Oi, director of the Stanford China Program
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The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and its Asia Health Policy Program have joined with other centers and programs across the university as collaborative partners for the new Stanford Center for Population Research (SCPR). Supporting population research among faculty and students throughout Stanford, the SCPR is led by Professor Shripad Tuljapurkar, co-editor with Karen Eggleston of the book Aging Asia: Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea.

The Stanford Center for Population Research, based in the Institute for Research in Social Sciences, has leadership and involvement across campus including the Humanities, Natural Sciences, Environmental programs, and the Medical School. The goal is to promote, support and develop population studies through collaboration among researchers and training for undergraduate and graduate students, serving as both a resource and nexus for faculty at Stanford across disciplines with interests in population studies, broadly defined.  

The Asia Health Policy Program will work with the Stanford Center for Population Research in studying the implications of demographic change in the Asia-Pacific region. For example, Karen Eggleston is undertaking comparative study of population health trends in China and India with other Stanford faculty associated with SCRP.

AHPP will also support the mission of strengthening the teaching of population studies at the undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral levels, by helping to make connections for students studying demographic change in Asia. The 2011 postdoctoral fellow in Asia health policy, Qiulin Chen, will be studying population aging in China in comparative perspective. Shorenstein APARC’s affiliation with the SCRP will also help to reinforce the new Shorenstein APARC initiative studying policy responses to population aging in East Asia, kicking off with a workshop in January 2011.

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China has experienced rapid political and economic growth, especially in the past decade, and increasing attention is paid to the question of China’s "rise," a topic frequently in the media during President Barack Obama's November 2010 visit to Asia. Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies, examined China's growing global significance in a talk at Claremont McKenna College on October 25, 2010. He addressed implications for the United States and spoke to commonly expressed perceptions and concerns about China's growth. Focusing on facts, Fingar looked retrospectively at events that have occurred during China's period of rapid growth and used them as a basis for an examination of the future.
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Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies
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In his new book, Ancestral Leaves, Esherick tells the story of one family through a tumultuous period of Chinese history. Through the lives of the Ye ("leaves" in Chinese) family members, we see the human dimensions of the grand narrative of modern China: the vast and destructive rebellions of the nineteenth century, the economic growth and social change of the republican era, the Japanese invasion in World War II, and the Cultural Revolution under the Chinese Communists. This is a story of social and political change told through family history. 

The family endures but is transformed from a multi-generation extended family to a linked group of nuclear families. Gender roles evolve as women are educated for careers of their own. In the twentieth century, young people are influenced by new radical ideas from friends and school, and the brothers coming of age in the 1930s each charts a separate course during the War of Resistance to Japan: some becoming Communists, some working with the Nationalist Chinese regime, some joining the liberal Democratic League, and one studying in the U.S. The choices they make during the war will fix their status under the new Communist regime, and when they are targeted during the Cultural Revolution, their families suffer with them.

In his talk on "Family and State in Modern China," Esherick will introduce Ancestral Leaves and explore some implications of the book for our understanding of the relationship between the family and the state in modern Chinese history.

Joseph W. Esherick is Professor of Modern Chinese History at the University of California, San Diego. He is the author of The Origins of the Boxer Uprising (UC Press) and co-editor of The Chinese Cultural Revolution as History, among many books.

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Joseph W. Esherick Professor of History Speaker UCSD
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While Shanghai and Hong Kong are often viewed as the financial centers of China, Beijing, the capital, is in reality where all financial decisions are made-decisions that affect the country's banking system and overall financial structure, which has implications on a global level. Carl Walter, a managing director of JPMorgan China, spoke at a Stanford China Program seminar on November 1 about the frequent changes in China's banking system since 1949 and the cost of these reforms within and outside of China.

China's banking system is currently controlled by the Ministry of Finance (MOF), which has competed at several points with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) for influence within the state bureacracy. During the Cultural Revolution period, MOF first moved to the fore of China's banking system, merging together the until-then separate PBOC and Bank of China (BOC) and eliminating all other banks. With China's "Open Door" economic reforms of 1978, the banks were again separated, with PBOC having oversight for three commercial banks and MOF for two, including BOC. In 1994, authority for all commercial banks, such as BOC and the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), moved to PBOC and MOF took control of three newly established policy banks, such as China Development Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank. Premier Zhu Rongji drove these and all other banking reforms until 2003.

Major bank restructuring has taken place since 1998, the big four banks were re-capitalized, problem loans spun off into four "bad" banks and the international accounting system adopted in preparation for international share offering on both domestic and international markets. All four banks successfully raised capital internationally and domestically over the past five years. Two large sovereign wealth fund-like entities came into being-Huijin, controlled by PBOC, and China Investment Corporation (CIC), operated under MOF- that were used to hold the Chinese state ownership of these banks.  The year that it was established in 2007, CIC acquired Huijin and MOF thereby indirectly gained control of all of the banks under PBOC.

The greatly increased level of bank capital achieved through restructuring and recapitalization was eroded, however, due to the enormous growth of loans in 2009 so that China now is faced with raising virtually the same amount of capital again, stated Walter. Everyone is paying the price, including international and domestic equity investors, who are being diluted, and China's own government, which to avoid dilution, must buy new shares at high market prices. The values of these shares, moreover, may be inflated due to the techniques used earlier to remove bad loans from their balance sheets. This has left banks exposed to these now worthless portfolios. To that extent, international accounting firms and market regulators put their reputations on the line when they support capital raising by the banks internationally. In short, the politics and economics of China's bank reforms and the struggles to control the banks have been internationalized.

Walter suggested that China is trapped with a banking system that is suited to the country's political system, but not to its economy. His forthcoming book, Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundations of China's Extraordinary Rise, co-authored with Fraser J.T. Howie, examines this issue and the recent history of China's financial system in depth.

 

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October 15, 2010 was the 100th anniversary of the birthday of Edwin O. Reischauer, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and a key leader in establishing the field of East Asian studies. George R. Packard, president of the United States-Japan Foundation, worked with Reischauer in the 1960s and recently published a biography about him entitled Edwin O. Reischauer and the American Discovery of Japan. Packard spoke at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center on October 28 to share his perspective on Reischauer's life and career.

Reischauer was born to missionary parents in Japan, where he spent the first part of his life. According to Packard, Reischauer had a lifelong appreciation for Japan that deepened with time, but he also recognized that the more time he spent living in and studying Japan, the more that there was for him still to learn. Reischauer attended Oberlin College as an undergraduate and Harvard University as a doctoral student. During World War II, he worked for the U.S. State Department translating intercepted messages.

The Pearl Harbor-era view of Japan in the United States was that of a "treacherous" country-one that still surfaces from time to time, according to Packard. Reischauer's life's work was to improve American education and understanding about Japan. While teaching at Harvard University, Reischauer, along with China studies pioneer John King Fairbank, helped to build the field of East Asian studies in the United States. Packard credits their efforts for changing the British imperial-era designation of the "Far East" to "East Asia." In addition to his works such as Japan, Past and Present and A History of East Asian Civilization, Reischauer was committed to writing about Japan in popular publications like Reader's Digest.

Reischauer served as U.S. Ambassador to Japan from 1961-1966. While there, he helped to diminish the "Occupation mentality" of Americans in Japan and planted the seeds for the eventual return of Okinawa, said Packard. During his time as ambassador, Reischauer suffered many professional and personal setbacks, including the death of President Kennedy, a supporter of his efforts; the escalation of the Vietnam War, for which he drew criticism although he was not a proponent of it; and being stabbed by a deranged student. According to Packard, after the stabbing incident Reischauer was deeply concerned about generating negative sentiment toward Japan, and thus intentionally kept quiet about it to the media. After returning to Harvard University in the late 1960s, Reischauer continued to draw criticism for the Vietnam War and in later decades was labeled as a "Japan apologist."

Despite his critics, the wisdom of Reischauer's work in academia and government rings true today, as evidenced by Japan's place as a global economic power and the successful and significant role that the U.S.-Japan relationship plays in the peace and economic stability of East Asia. 

 

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George R. Packard, president of the United States-Japan Foundation, speaking at Shorenstein APARC on October 15, 2010.
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In an interview with The Incheon Daily, Gi-Wook Shin, director of Shorenstein APARC and KSP, stresses the significance of Incheon's designation as host city to the 2010 Asia Economic Community Forum. He suggests that Incheon, and in particular the Songdo Free Economic Zone, could become an important meeting ground for Asian nations, in part because it represents a geographical and political compromise, between China and Japan. For this reason, the time has come to seriously reflect upon the role that Songdo will play in Asian unification. According to Shin, Asia should do as Europe has done, following the example of the European Union, which, he maintains, has brought Europe together and strengthened the region. In this integrated Asia, he argues further, Incheon Songdo is perhaps the city best suited to serve as the regional hub.

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Songdo International Business District, Incheon, South Korea.
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